“Why Young Adults Are Among the Biggest Barriers to Mass Immunity” (New York Times, today) shows that, despite scientific leadership in the White House, America is not safe from science deniers. From the folks who say that they’re the smartest people in the U.S.:
Many young adults are foregoing Covid vaccines for a complex mix of reasons. Health officials are racing to find ways to change their minds.
But the straightforward sales pitch for older people — a vaccine could very possibly save your life — does not always work on healthy 20-somethings who know they are less likely to face the severest outcomes of Covid.
Many young adults are relatively healthy, and they often have work, school and young children to worry about. Getting vaccinated does not always register as a top priority, experts and young adults said.
My comment:
“healthy 20-somethings who know they are less likely to face the severest outcomes of Covid”
“Less likely”?
shows that the risk of death to an 18-29-year-old is 1/610th the risk faced by an elderly American (85+)
A slender 20-year-old is more likely to be killed in a car accident driving to/from the vaccine clinic than he/she/ze/they would be likely to be killed by COVID-19 if he/she/ze/they did not get vaccinated. If we’re confused regarding why such a person does not want to spend the time and effort to get vaccinated maybe we should question our own intelligence, not the intelligence of the young person.
I guess what is most interesting about this is that the technocrats who are now in charge of the economy and society couldn’t have figured this out 6-12 months ago and come up with a plan, e.g., to pay healthy young people for undergoing a procedure that has no benefit to them. It was already apparent then that COVID-19 was a killer of the elderly (median age of a COVID-19-tagged death here in Maskachusetts: 82). And it was certainly known as of December 2020 that the vaccines wouldn’t be FDA-approved, but only authorized for emergency use. It was entirely predictable that the side effects of the vaccines, e.g., a few days of flu-like symptoms and worse, would be rationally perceived as outweighing the benefits to slender healthy young people.
From Jun 25, St. Petersburg, Florida, part of a crowd of 10,000+ packing into the bars and clubs of Central Avenue just after 11:00 pm:
(I got out my handy bullhorn and told the young people to cease their covidiocy and disperse. I tried to get a chant going where I would say “Stay Home” and they would respond by shouting “Save Lives”, but was unsuccessful.)
Massachusetts has announced its VaxMillions giveaway lottety. This might be an attractive incentive for young people – they’re giving away five $300,000 scholarship prizes to people under 18 and five $1 million grand prizes, and you’re eligible for all five drawings if you get the shot(s) by July 22nd.
I think this is Massively unfair: shouldn’t the State also allow people who set a good example by being vaccinated early some chance at a prize of some sort? I feel used.
https://patch.com/massachusetts/medford/s/hn7ih/drawing-dates-for-1-million-ma-vaxmillions-lottery-announced
I am unclear whether the giveaway is open to everyone who was vaccinated prior to the July 1 registration date, or if it’s only for the “resisters” who get their shots after July 1. Investigation needed here….
Let’s assume that all vaccinated people are eligible and register for the lottery. Currently 4.2 million are vaccinated, let’s assume that this will increase to 6 million by July 22nd.
You could buy 10 tickets in a “6 out of 49” lottery with roughly the same odds and larger prices for $10.
So the government values your participation at $10. That’s a bit like giving children an ice cream for a vaccination shot.
@Anonymous:
That’s a good point. I’m also wondering what the proof required is? The CDC vaccine card I obtained when I got my shots? As I’ve pointed out, they’re not very “secure” documents. Generic printed card, easily photocopied on plain card stock, no special anti-counterfeit features, mine were handwritten with a couple of stickers applied to them showing the vaccine type and lot numbers. It does have the “patient number” and shows where I received my shots, but all of that was handwritten also.
Not even as counterfeit-resistant as a scratch-off ticket. Do they contact the facility to verify the info. matches the patient database or just take people’s word for it?
https://i.ibb.co/120YPTd/VACC-CARD.jpg
> VaxMillions giveaway lottety
So the state is persuading people to get vaccinated who otherwise wouldn’t have done. Does that mean it’s also accepting responsibility for any associated “adverse events”?
We know the vaccine manufacturers don’t accept that responsibility. But since the vaccines are safe, the state wouldn’t be taking any risk by indemnifying all their new vaccine recruits, right?
Look how safe they are – so safe that the outdated criteria for pre-Coronaplague vaccines no longer need to be applied!
What is their specific cost protecting their own grandparents from the plague? I assume they would, if asked, stress how much they care for the darling oldies, etc.
That’s not how a vaccine works. If the grandma is vaccinated then it doesn’t matter if grand daughter is. Follow the science!
Federico: Isn’t it just as likely that giving young people the same vaccine as what we give to old people will result in additional deaths among grandparents? If everyone is vaccinated, the only coronavirus that circulates, by definition, will be one that the vaccines don’t prevent. If we can’t eradicate coronavirus, maybe old people would be better off if they were the only people vaccinated and there weren’t so much evolutionary pressure applied to coronavirus.
Toucan Sam: Thank you for reminding us to always follow the science. #SoImportant
TS: “That’s not how a vaccine works. If the grandma is vaccinated then it doesn’t matter if grand daughter is. Follow the science!”
The vaccine isn’t 100% effective (no vaccine is 100%).
The more people vaccinated, the better.
Follow the science all the way.
@davep, vaccines may work for this way polio but based on common flu vaccines it is not how vaccines works for highly mutable RNA viruses. I think that @philg is on somethings here, f everyone is vaccinated against highly mutable virus that it is likely that only mutation that is vaccine – resistant will survive. If it survives. And it does survive, we know that already.
LSI: I can’t take total credit for this realization. See the comment by averros in https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2021/06/16/the-english-decide-to-stay-in-their-foxholes-covid-surge-despite-vaccination/
Any actual scientist given the facts as following: quickly mutating kind of viruses, vaccine tech producing very specific immune response and incapable of conferring sterilizing immunity, widespread community transmission will immediately figure out that mass immunization creates strong selective pressure on the virus thus rapidly creating new strains which not only avoid vaccines but also re-infect people who did get the cooties before.
With these givens the correct strategy is to vaccinate only those at risk of severe illness so as to protect them while minimizing generation of new strains.
But, no, the over-educated idiots and vaccine salesmen never think about anything further than immediate results of their actions. It’s like antibiotic overuse take 2 – only faster moving. The EYIs learned nothing from the previous bouts of medically-induced pathogen evolution.
@philg, Thanks for referring me to @averros comment. I think language matters, to abstract sometimes means to abstract good understanding by non-specialists away. Vaccination does not really “creates strong selective pressure on the virus”, it does not let original virgin of the virus to replicate through hosts, so only vaccine – resistant mutation of original virus will propagate through population, as happens with common flu virus every year, sometimes more frequently then once annually. Without 100% or close vaccination vaccine – resistant mutation would not likely to single itself out from original virus as its part in it is initially insignificant. Good experiment would be to vaccinated entire population of earth in a day or two to see whether mutation will form. But this is impossible and would be criminal if were possible.
#original version of the virus
All,
1) we have no idea how long the immunity lasts for — if grandma did not get her booster those darling unvaccinated younglings could very well pass her a new dose of the plague, with greater than 0 lethal consequences. Who is the monster who wants to give granny a greater than 0 risk of death over and above whatever risk she already faces?
2) the pox on you houses, or maybe not… the astute reader might have just noted that smallpox has been wiped out altogether in the wild *by vaccination*. We vaccinated people faster than smallpox could randomly generate mutations that conferred it the ability to bypass the vaccine. Because mutations are random, and natural selection acts on reality, not possibility, it is possible that, should we vaccinate enough people we could stop transmission of the plague at a moment when there are no strains that can evade vaccination induced immunity. The chances of this outcome happening are a a function of the speed at which we manage to vaccinate the overwhelming majority of people, and the proportion of vaccinated people. The slower the vaccination, the fewer the vaccinated, the higher the number of infected people in which a mutation might occur that will render current vaccines useless. So the young not getting vaccinated are directly impacting grandma’s chances that her vaccination will not protect her against new strains.
So, the youth are basically telling grandma and grandpa ‘fuck you’, all the while professing family values, faith in Cheesus, [insert whatever feels appropriate] lives matter, love is love, etc.
@Phil — do not listen to Averros, he/she/ze/whatever has no idea of what he/she/ze/whatever is talking about. Mutations are a random event that happens as a function of replication, which is a function of how many people are volunteering their own cells to replicate the virus. There is not reason whatsoever to assume new mutations that are not affected by vaccine induced immunity will not just appear because there is a buttload of folks that have the plague and are volunteering to help it replicate (increasing the chances of mutation in the meantime). The more people susceptible to infection, the higher the replication events, the higher the chances of new mutations that are more infectious, are not affected by immunity, etc.
Natural selection, despite the comments here, does not act with a plan, it just selects the most fit variant present at any given time, assuming said variants are fit enough to pass selection (extinction does happen!). So, the fewer bodies helping the virus replicate, the fewer mutation variants there are to face selection for transmission in the vaccinated. It is not that hard. The fewer the variants, the lower the chances that a variant can bypass immunity. It is not that hard.
I can see the education system of the countries you grew up in did not do a great job with basic biology. Hopefully your parents did not pay for private education.
Why won’t you people just follow the science? btw I still don’t care about Black Lives Matter!
@Federico – I don’t think you understand the difference between sterilizing and non-sterilizing immunization. The former simply removes a person from the susceptible group. The latter allows virus or bacteria to replicate, but selectively suppresses some variants more than other, thus creating selective pressures and evolution. That, and hypermutability of RNA viruses pretty much make vaccination aginst coronaviruses and flu rather useless long-term.
None of COVID vaccines is creating sterilizing immunity.
Federico: I’m not a physician like Dr. Jill Biden, M.D., but I think that smallpox is a DNA virus and therefore our vaccinations have mostly worked while influenza is an RNA virus and therefore our vaccinations haven’t worked (in the sense that people still regularly get the flu and die). The current plague is being caused by an RNA virus.
Lots of grandparents in the 80+ range are also immunocompromised from age, treatments, or drugs they take.
But, hey, in the USA it’s all about “me”.
@Jim: ” immunocompromised from age, treatments, or drugs they take”. So you are advocating more people get “immunocompromised” for questionable long term effectiveness vaccines?
Jim: “Lots of grandparents in the 80+ range are also immunocompromised from age, treatments, or drugs they take.”
For these folks, couldn’t vaccinating young people actually increase their risk? Consider that the vaccines we have don’t prevent infection, especially with respect to COVID variants, but they supposedly suppress the symptoms. Absent vaccination, a COVID-infected young person would stay home sick for a few days. A vaccinated COVID-infected young person, however, will feel fine, hug a grandparent, and transmit Delta Variant COVID to the grandparent.
It sounds good to say that young people can protect old people by getting vaccinated, but not everything that sounds good is true.
Phil..sure, in some fantasy world that might happen. Consider that an unvaccinated, Covid-infected young person is asymptomatic and visits the old folks. Anything can happen.
All I know is that over 99% of people with Covid in the hospital are unvaccinated.
Jim: If it is only the unvaccinated who end up in the hospital with COVID, why is thoroughly vaccinated Israel back to masks? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57594155
Israel reimposes masks amid new virus fears
Israel has reintroduced a requirement to wear masks indoors amid a rise in coronavirus cases, just days after it lifted the measure.
But on Thursday, 10 days after the mandate was lifted, Israel’s coronavirus response chief Nachman Ash said people would once again need to wear masks indoors to try to stem the rise in cases.
“We are seeing a doubling every few days,” Mr Ash told public radio. “Another thing that’s worrying is that the infections are spreading.”
Anonymous…no I’m not advocating that at all. What you wrote doesn’t even make sense.
@Jim, for some reason I thought you were advocating vaccinating young people with not yet fully approved mRNA vaccines that are more dangerous to their health then coronavirus part of covid-19 against recommendation of Dr. Malone on whose research these vaccine are based. But I guess it is not you who are confused, it must be my reading comprehension.
Mostly for the occasional reader, since the normal crowd seems to be studying at the university of google… ‘sterilising immunity’ does not happen by magic, it happens because B cells produce neutralising antibodies. A high enough amount of neutralising antibodies will prevent infection outright. No virus replication occurs. A permissive immune response (‘non sterilising’) is based on Cytotoxic T lymphocytes, and non-neutralising antibodies. A permissive immune response generally abates the symptoms enough that a disease mild or symptomless. Some virus replication occurs. Viral replication, while still present, is not of the same order of magnitude as for ‘naive’ individuals (i.e. people who had never been exposed to the virus or had a vaccination) because there is still an immune response that affects replication.
For COVID we know that (1) infection does induce production of neutralising antibodies by B cells, and (2) the same happens for vaccination against COVID. The basis for ‘sterilising immunity’ are present in both successful recovery from infecion, and after vaccination.
One of the issue of COVID is though that it is an airborne virus that affects, among other tissues, the airways mucosal mebrane. Because airways mucosal mebrane are highly compartimentalised from the rest of the immune function (because they act as a frontline immune barrier), while vaccines stop systemic virus replication, they are less effective at stopping replication altogether in airways mucosal mebranes, especially in the upper respiratory trait. Thus vaccines are extremely effective at stopping the development of symptoms, but can allow a moderate infection, and moderate level of virus replication, in the upper airways.
As the reader recalls, every instance of virus replication opens the possibility of a mutation (SARS-COVID-2 mutates faster than a DNA virus, such as smallpox, but slower than a different RNA virus, such as the flu). Mutations are random and have no plan. It is possible that one such mutation might create a virus that is more virulent/lethal/transmissible/etc. So, the fewer replications happen, the lower the chances of a mutation. Any form of immunity limits or stops replication of the virus, thus helping in this giant random sampling game, simply by reducing the samples, and thus the chances of mutations.
So, if you are not vaccinated, you can get infected and provide a larger scale viral replication opportunity compared to what you would if you get vaccinated. In addiction, because it is possible you might be immunocompetent against the virus, and yet still allow some level or viral reproduction due to a asymtomatic infection, wearing a mask limits the risk of exposure of a third party to any asymtomatic infection you might have — masks are there to protect others much more than to protect you. Hence why the mask orders in the nearly 100% vaccinated Israel — because even preventing asymptomatic infections is a step in the right direction in terms of preventing mutations.
Federico: Preventing mutations by ordering masks sounds like a sensible idea… until you reflect on the fact that Planet Earth contains 8 billion humans. Regardless of coronapanic level, mask theater, shutdown orders, etc., aren’t we guaranteed to have an unlimited supply of variants even if, say, 90% of the world’s humans are prevented from ever incubating a variant? A guarantee from God that 90% of humans won’t breed a variant still leaves 800 million hosts that can breed variants. The Delta variant that has resulted in local tyrants renewing mask orders, for example, (supposedly) originated in India. In terms of preventing this variant from arising, it didn’t matter how vigilant people in countries other than India were.
@Federico, et. al.:
I have to say – regardless of the merits or demerits of the rest of the argument, Federico’s description of the biology and immunology is how I learned it at a pretty good College. Maybe they taught me wrong.
Federico: Not everyone over 70 is one of their grandparents. Consider a 70 year old landlord that takes 40% of a 25 year old’s income in rent. Perhaps he/she/ze/they has/have roughly this CV:
– Studied in 1970, enjoying Marxist philosophy, free sex and drugs, empty universities with guaranteed jobs after the degree.
– Became corporate in 1975 and started to climb the ladder.
– Got a position of power in 2000 and started to sell out Western IP by outsourcing and simultaneously lowering the value of work in the West by importing people (all this because he/she/ze/they is/are a good person of course).
– All the time, bought up land and is active in preventing new construction.
Now the 25 year old should take an vaccine with only emergency approval to protect him/her/xir/them?
@Federico this is good explanation. Seems that such mechanism could explain Delta variant. But would not random mutation have more chances to be lost if original virus diminish its replication ability? Looks like Alpha variant quickly emerged in vaccinated environment.
This is the same cohort that disproportionately engages in extreme sports, foregoes health insurance, doesn’t contribute to retirement plans, and is sexually promiscuous. All despite constant hectoring and nudging. How stupid do you have to be to think that they’d get vaccinated because you chided them!
I kind of get it because they’ve been indoctrinated and steeped in paternalism their entire childhoods, but it seems like they are adept at saying the right things, going through the motions of compliance, and then acting otherwise.
This cohort you dislike has saved more money than many boomers, are less promiscuous than boomers, are having a lot less abortions than boomers did, drink and drug less than boomers. The skinny ones don’t need health insurance and extreme sports are probably safer than living as the boomers have.
Besides as Toucan points out if you believe in science and are vaxxed why would you care?
Have to give the kids credit has been a bunch of official admissions that the vaxx causes heart problems at an alarming rate among young people, and that the vaxx is more dangerous than the disease for the young.
That was common speculation among unapproved doctors and scientists but has now been admitted to by the ‘proper’ authorities. Of course not given much press.
To recap. Your vaccine protects you – if it doesn’t kill you first.
And props to President Biden for admitting some don’t want it because of the Tuskegee legacy(not the pilots the other government Tuskegee thing involving black people.) Sometimes President Biden is the most honest President we’ve ever had.
It’s good that Biden mentions the Tuskegee crimes.
Will he also repent for trying to introduce the Clipper chip?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clipper_chip
https://jolt.law.harvard.edu/assets/articlePDFs/v30/30HarvJLTech355.pdf
“224.In 1991, for instance, then-Senator Biden proposed legislation that would have re-quired carriers to decrypt communications carried over their networks. See Comprehensive Counter-Terrorism Act of 1991, S. 266, 102nd Cong. (1991) (“It is the sense of Congress that providers of electronic communications services and manufacturers of electronic communi-cations service equipment shall ensure that communications systems permit the government to obtain the plain text contents of voice, data, and other communications when appropriately authorized by law.”).”
Dislike? I have no qualms with the youth. They act like the youth have (mostly) always acted: like they’re invincible, will outlive the consequences of their actions, and know more than their elders. And that is (mostly) the reasonable approach.
I’m not sure who you’re arguing with in the rest of your reply, but it’s not me.
@Alex >[Are we chumps for not waiting to get vaccinated so we could win prizes?]
Yes. Of course we are: https://www.city-journal.org/chump-effect-of-progressive-policies
On June 20 the World Health Organization said, “children should not be vaccinated for the moment. There is not yet enough evidence on the use of vaccines against COVID-19 in children to make recommendations for children to be vaccinated”.
source: https://archive.is/z2SCv#selection-6007.0-6007.49
This week they watered it down to, “WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) has concluded that the Pfizer/BionTech vaccine is suitable for use by people aged 12 years and above … Vaccine trials for children are ongoing and WHO will update its recommendations when the evidence or epidemiological situation warrants a change in policy..”
source: https://archive.is/5isW7#selection-6055.279-6055.323
Dr. Nick: Thanks for this example of the beauty of settled science, which can change on a weekly basis to suit personal or political needs. It is awesome that the SAGEs have aligned with what U.S. technocrats desire.
> CDC Officials Admit More Hospitalizations of Young People from Vaccine than From the Actual COVID Virus – Including HUGE Number of Heart Problems Reported
https://archive.is/9cyp8
If the young’s care about grandma/grandpa, they would get their jab in a heartbeat. They don’t need an education or prizes to change their mind. Why? COVID has NOT effect them, on the contrary, the lockdown has taken more than a year out of their short life and will continue to do so for many years to come.
As to why the smartest people cannot figure this out, it’s simple: generation gap. Those “smartest” people in government are over 60 y/o, they are out of touch with younger generations. The only thing those 60+ y/o have figured out is how to get more votes by handing out free giveaways and false promises.
And COVID marches on, with new army, in a different uniform: “With the more contagious Delta variant, some officials are issuing new mask guidance” [1].
I cannot wait to see what our government will do now. Another lockdown? More $$ to say home? Or will it be “move on folks, nothing to see here”?
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/29/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html
Addendum: I just signed up, along with all the other members of my vaccinated family. It’s a simple form. You fill out your basic information including email and phone, date of birth, address and that’s it! You agree to allow MA to verify your vaccination record but nothing else. No uploading of a picture of your card, not even where it happened or when. Then you receive a registration email confirming you are in the pool.
https://vaxmillionsgiveaway.com/
If I win, I promise to donate 10% of my after-tax net to a worthy cause suggested by the loyal readers of this blog. It’s kind of hard to do that anonymously and still prove it to everyone, but I promise you all that I will. Here’s your chance! Suggest a cause for my slice of the vaccine jackpot!
Here’s a screenshot of my confirmation email. The rest of the confirmation number has been erased. They give you 24 hours to respond if you win, but I’m in for all 5 drawings, so if the phone rings or I get an email I’d better act fast!
https://i.ibb.co/FW350Mk/MAVAXLOT.jpg
@Alex, if lottery is what will get Americans to get the jab, then this program is teaching Americans a poor lesson that you can strike it rich by playing the lottery. Sadly, this will reinforce the mind sent of the poor and uneducated [1] to believe more into the lottery.
Please don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying that you are waist your money on lottery, heck, I don’t know much about you. It’s the program that I’m criticizing.
[1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-buys-lottery-tickets-those-who-can-least-afford-them/
@George A.: I agree with you George, but this is Massachusetts and the only thing more pervasive than Mining the Poor and selling them lottery tickets is selling them “Essential Business” items like tobacco, alcohol and marijuana, and then helping them get on welfare. Huge sums just get shoveled back to the State disbursed to Administrators running programs here. That’s basically how the MA economy “rolls.”
I was vaccinated in March/April and I didn’t expect a bonus or a freebie for it, but if everyone in this state who got the shot is eligible to win $1 million or $300,000, I’m going to put my entry in. I’ll do some good things with it if I win, at least.