How can U.S. population be forecast under our current asylum-based immigration system?

The Congressional Budget Office has a recent report forecasting U.S. population for the next 30 years: The Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052 (

The authors say that U.S. population will continue to grow, all due to immigration:

Since immigrants have a higher birth rate than native-born Americans, the above chart shows that there will be a dramatic increase in the percentage of the U.S. population that is either immigrants or children of recent immigrants (but this decline in percentage of native-born cannot be characterized as a “replacement”).

The southern border is open to anyone who is willing to walk across. Anyone who walks across is entitled to claim asylum, entering a process that could take years. Depending on the country of origin, a denial of asylum has no practical effect in terms of headcount. The migrant cannot be deported to a country such as Venezuela where the U.S. does not have an agreement in place with the government. (NYT)

How can the demographers know what percentage of the 28 million Venezuelans will decide to walk into the U.S., much less what percentage of the rest of the 7+ billion people on Planet Earth who are not already Americans? Given our current asylum-based immigration policy, unless we know how many countries will experience Venezuelan-style economic or political issues over the next 30 years, how can we know how many people will walk into the U.S. and stay forever?

6 thoughts on “How can U.S. population be forecast under our current asylum-based immigration system?

    • The plan sounds great, at least for the elites. But circling back to the original post… how can a plan be relevant when the asylum system says that anyone who says he/she/ze/they feels threatened can come here? What control do Americans have over how many people are being threatened, or might be threatened, in the rest of the world?

  1. Not everyone who crosses the border is given asylum in the US&A. During the dirty war in Mexico against non-aligned cartels 2006-12 many Mexicans fearing for their life requested asylum. Most spent 18 months detained and we’re deported back. American asylum laws favor refugees from communist countries and religion or gender persecuted. Mexicans are not in any way welcomed. Just guacamole.

    • Ed: What difference does it make if someone is given asylum from a population dynamics point of view? “Venezuelans, who cannot be expelled under Title 42 because Mexico will not take them and their own government does not have an agreement with the United States to accept deportation flights.” says (i.e., a Venezuelan will be here forever, regardless of what the bureaucrats paid to process his/her/zir/their asylum claim end up determining)

  2. Mexico is being invaded by Venezuelans, Cubans, Haitians and even Somalis. The saddest thing is that we don’t need them competing for handouts with Mexican children that are exploited on the streets. Mexico has been way more proactive than these countries in reducing poverty and misery. I got a free pension as an older citizen. And i already had one front uncle Sam. Mexico has no need or obligation to receive starving immigrants. The USA needs unqualified labor to sweep. México already has a lot.

  3. OT: Got my notice today that my $9000 student loan balance has been wiped away! Thank you Pres. Biden!

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