Scanning the headlines, I see the Mega Millions is up to $1.55 billion. That’s a fake number because it is pre-tax and adds up an annual payment without discounting? Let’s assume that it isn’t a fake number. The odds of winning are 1 in 302 million and a ticket costs $2. So we should definitely play! We expect to get $5.13 for every ticket that we buy (ignoring any less-than-jackpot prizes).
But of course, the number is fake. CNBC says that the one-time lump sum payment is $757 million. This analysis says that the lump sum in a state such as Florida with no personal income tax is worth only $477 million after federal income tax. The odds of winning on a $2 ticket are 1 in 302 million. So I think one gets back only about $1.50 in expected value from the big jackpot. But maybe the lesser prizes are what make the expectation positive? This analysis adds up all of the lesser prizes. The expected value of a $2 ticket was only about $1.10 after taxes when the jackpot was $521 million and fell to about 77 cents for players who chose the lump sum option. On a $1.55 billion jackpot if you pick numbers that nobody else picks maybe it would be worth buying tickets? Would it make sense to use a random number generator? Use numbers that the Chinese consider unlucky? Pick the birthday of a 17th century scientist whom nobody cares about?
Who has purchased some tickets for what could now be a rational activity, depending on your level of risk aversion? What are you planning to buy if you win?
(I would use my winnings to buy housing for every currently unhoused resident of the U.S., to pay for immigration lawyers to help migrants prevail in the 10-year asylum process, to finance Democrats running for office (stepping in where Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX has withdrawn), etc. With any leftover money, beyond the obvious aviation items, how about a bus-based RV (about $3 million fully pimped-out). And, of course, a driver. I’d be able to watch Barbie and Oppenheimer over and over while sitting in traffic. And would have a nice place to sleep at Oshkosh!)
Separately, and speaking of Sam Bankman-Fried and crypto glory, how about this Bitcoin criminal who stole $4.5 billion? That’s way more than Mega Millions and he just hung around in New York City for years until he was arrested. From the WSJ:
If you get a lottery-style windfall, but it is illegal, wouldn’t it make sense to move to some country where they won’t extradite?
Related:
- California says inequality is bad and also participates in Powerball? (recent)
- If inequality is bad, why does the government run Powerball? (2016; before the rich were hugely enriched by coronapanic cash, thus dramatically increasing inequality)
Since the perpetrators denounced themselves and muzzled themselves and their defense attorney they are sure to get into premium barrack in Gulag. When they are released for good behavior they can enjoy proceeds of taking responsibility of their first claimed hack, donated by grateful anonymous donors. If they do not commit suicide while in custody of course.
I cannot believe how many very smart people failed to apprehend that the blockchain keeps an indelible record of each transaction and to understand the ramifications of that when it comes to illegal activity. Why bother even trying to launder funds?
As for extradition, staying out of jail is great, but what’s stopping the government from declaring the contents of a wallet as “ill-gotten” under asset forfeiture laws and proclaiming that any coin that come from it (or its descendants) will be seized if they ever hit any U.S. friendly institution? What’s the point of being a bitcoin billionaire if you become a digital Cuba and can never spend any of it?
very naive. all that can be tied to blockhain entry is some ip address from several years back. if do not know where and whom to track in advance, post-factum it could be engineered be worse then useless. And the right people can use it, just look at developing discovery of potus family business from a decade ago. I am sure it goes further in history. And sure many more do it, just do not abandon their unencrypted laptops at computer shop and do not brag about it on public television.