The fraud in GDP growth statistics continues

by philg

New York Times, today:

The U.S. economy remained resilient early this year, with a strong job market fueling robust consumer spending. The trouble is that inflation was resilient, too.

Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was down sharply from the 3.4 percent growth rate at the end of 2023 and fell well short of forecasters’ expectations.

The word “population” doesn’t occur in the article, though it is critically important. If the population is growing at a 1.7 percent annual rate, for example, Americans are currently on track to become poorer on a per capita basis.

How much did the population grow? It’s almost impossible to say because our population growth is driven by undocumented migration and the error bars on estimates are huge (see “Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates”).

Separately, the GDP of Harvard Square is growing. An “essential” marijuana retailer seems to have opened up on Church Street. Photos from this evening:

It’s also a great time to be a tent retailer. The “Free Palestine” encampment in Harvard Yard, view from outside Harvard’s police-guarded border wall:

Here are the stickers that supporters of Hamas/UNRWA/Palestinian Islamic Jihad have added to Harvard’s “the Yard is closed” signs:

5 thoughts on “The fraud in GDP growth statistics continues”

  1. Speaking of population, Americans literally dying off. Deaths are rising, almost catching up with births (breaking 1979’s record for fewest births). Below replacement rate since 2008 (now 1.62/woman). The White rate is substantially below the Hispanic and Black rate (52/1000 women); Native and Asian rates are even lower.

    Given that population growth is almost entirely migration, what is the impact on GDP of this open-air market for prostitution and shoplifted goods?
    https://nypost.com/2024/04/14/us-news/nyc-block-turned-into-illicit-open-air-market-for-migrant-crooks-sources/
    Non-paywalled WSJ article: https://archive.is/OUSAC

  2. Nowadays, tents are very easy to put together. When I was young, growing up in a dictatorship, tents were hard to erect, and we could not fight for freedom. REI has truly changed the lives of freedom fighters.

  3. Why would anyone be worried about GDP and inflation anymore? Today’s generation are living like there is no tomorrow [1]. Frankly, I don’t blame them. They are following the examples set by our government of over spending. Even at state level, spending has gone out of control [2].

    If that’s not enough, have a look at this [3].

    [1] https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/millennials-gen-z-financial-cliff-saving-less-spending-rcna138004
    [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2022/10/25/over-two-thirds-of-us-states-do-not-have-enough-cash-to-pay-their-obligations
    [3] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/inflation-households-need-extra-11400-these-states-its-even-higher/

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