Here’s a recent video from Gaza showing a well-fed population, undamaged buildings, armed and uniformed soldiers, and freshly washed (/waxed?) vehicles:
If nothing else, Israel has convinced the Palestinians that war is a completely sustainable lifestyle during which their population will continue to expand and through which EU and US taxpayers will continue to supply unlimited food, health care, education, shelter, etc.
What are readers’ guesses as to when the Gazans’ next attack on Israel will be? As there are multiple armed groups within Gaza (e.g., the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”), UNRWA, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad), any of which can launch rockets at Israeli civilians, my guess is that the first rocket attacks will be on May 1, 2025 (Israel doesn’t return fire with 155mm artillery shells as one might expect, so there is no cost to the Gazans from attacking Israeli civilians). The October 7, 2023 attack on Israel was hugely popular among Palestinians polled as well as with the “international community” (Democrats in the U.S.; everyone at Harvard, Columbia, Brown; everyone in Ireland, Norway, and Spain; etc.) so it would be rational for the Gazans to do a repeat ASAP. On the other hand, it will take a while for Palestinians to fully rearm and reorganize and also a while for Israelis to become complacent about watching the border. Thus, my guess about the next major attack on Israel is October 7, 2027.
Isn’t the wildcard here what happens with Iran? The plan with them has got to be that we want to watch you blow up your nuke stuff or we/Israel will lend a hand. Where will that leave Hamas?
2027 is still within the MAGA regime. Hamas has to believe that there would be much less reining in the Israel response and they would pay a much bigger price then than they did this time.
Mitch: that’s a good point. Maybe I should update my prediction for a ground attack to “six months after a progressive Democrat returns to the White House.”
Mitch, your comment on Iran is spot on as they are the main puppet-master (supply money and weapons). If I was Netanyahu (or other powers that be in Israel), I would now finish the job on the islamic terrorist regime in Iran, whose destruction their own population would likely welcome. This is Israel’s best opportunity, given Trump now has their back and would likely fully support taking out the islamic terrorist scum. Thoughts?
@philg Good news. US stopped almost all foreign aid. Of course Israel is exempt from this.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/24/politics/us-freezes-foreign-aid/index.html
May be Gaazans will starve to death. I still do not understand why we give money to Israel. Both of them can either fight it out or hug it out, up to them.
Anon: I agree with you that Israel shouldn’t accept US military aid. Israel should fight its own battles with its own domestically produced weapons, such as 155mm artillery shells.
They seemed to quiet down from 2017-2021 so the same could happen from 2025-2030. Higher chance of meaningful foreign policy during the R terms.
Not everyone in Spain
Given the high birth rate among Palestinians, they are able to recover any losses and more in no time. Even during the 15-month conflict, they were making babies! Thus, UNRWA funding for Palestinians, to make babies, is much, much more valuable to them than Iran supporting Hamas fighters via weapons!
Trump says it’s time to “clean out” Gaza! Wow…so much winning in 6 days.