The Economy of Ancient Israel

Sometimes people wonder how believing Christians can be scientists. The Big Bang Wikipedia page is a little different from Genesis, for example. But maybe the contradictions are even larger for Christian mainstream economists. How to reconcile the teachings of Jesus with a world in which nearly everything is for sale and we’re told that’s as it should be (for efficiency)?

I stopped into a session on “The Economy of Ancient Israel” at the American Economics Association 2015 meeting to see how it works. “Rational Peasant Strategy in Biblical Israel: Reconciling Theory with Archaeological Evidence” by Albino Barrera was an exploration of what it was like to be an Iron Age peasant in Israel from 1200 B.C. to the Babylonian Exile (about 600 B.C.). Barrera explained that standard economics theory posits that peasants should have been impoverished and unable to hold onto any surplus that they generated because an elite would have confiscated surpluses through taxation. He said that the Biblical texts support this point of view. Archaeological evidence, however, is that a typical family lived in a 3-4 room house of 130 square meters in size (1400 square feet) and that these houses had storage areas. Evidence is that peasants had private land and held surpluses but then they lost it all after the Babylonians came in.

Some other speakers talked about reciprocity in ancient Israel. If you got a lot of wealth you would try to distribute it among your clan so that, if you were ever in need, those neighbors would come to your aid. Apparently the system worked out better than it did for Timon of Athens.

Certainly it doesn’t seem as though microeconomics has changed much in 2500+ years.

Related: I’m still listening to Cleopatra: A Life (Stacy Schiff) as a book on tape. It is filled with detailed evocations of daily life in Ancient Rome, Greece, and Egypt and even includes some economics. Think that Piketty’s wealth tax idea is new? Octavian, Mark Antony, and Lepidus did the same thing back in 43 B.C. (they killed a lot of rich people and took their property, but the “proscriptions” brought in less cash than planned/hoped says Schiff).

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Helicopters, Cameras, and New York City at night

What’s not to love about these photos of New York City taken from a helicopter at 7500′ at night?

[Europeans can take some pride in these photos because they were taken from a Eurocopter A-Star (or the twin-engine version of the same?). Japanese can take some pride because of the use of Canon and Mamiya camera gear.]

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Why would public employees strike when they can stop working instead?

New York was a pioneer in allowing public employees to unionize (September 2009 posting). I’m wondering if the recent work slowdown by the New York Police points the way to the future of public employee labor negotiations.

Had the police gone on strike they would have lost a few weeks of pay. By simply stopping work but not going on strike they kept getting paychecks while putting pressure on politicians and citizens. That raises the question of why, going forward, public employees would ever strike. If there are no performance standards for unionized public workers and/or they can’t be fired, why strike? And why were there strikes by public employee unions in the past? Why wasn’t this tactic obvious back in the 1960s, for example?

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Gender equity should be measured by consumption, not income?

In listening to self-described “radical” and “feminist” economists at the American Economic Association conference (example) and also in reading popular articles such as “Pay Gap Is Because of Gender, Not Jobs” (nytimes), the fact that men and women in the U.S. earn different amounts via W-2 wages is accepted as ipso facto evidence that our society is unfair and needs “reform.”

Perhaps we do need reform, and perhaps there is discrimination by employers, but I’m wondering if this is the most important analysis for figuring out if society overall is unfair. Does it matter to Citizen Ruth what she earns, and therefore what she can write down on her 1040 tax return, or what she can spend, and therefore the kind of lifestyle she can enjoy? If spending power is relevant then we may not have any idea how equitable our society is.

Simplest corrections: Do women typically give men more gifts or vice versa? Spending power should be corrected for that. What about paying for vacations and entertainment? If there is a disparity in who pays for these, including among the unmarried, that should go into the accounting. Cash income? Are men or women tending to earn more in the cash or underground economy? Cost of living adjustments? Are there more men versus women who live in high-cost states such as Hawaii, California, New York, or Massachusetts? Are there more men than women who live in high-cost cities versus low-cost rural areas?

For the bigger corrections we need to consider once class at a time.

Let’s consider poor Americans first. A poor woman, like a rich woman, is overwhelmingly likely to be the winner of any kind of custody dispute in the U.S. courts. Thus she is more likely to have possession of a child than would be a poor man. If we assume, as do the child support guidelines, that the child has no value to the parent and is a pure cost, the mother may be better off than the father even if the father is also poor and pays her minimal cash. A poor single parent is entitled to a lot more welfare benefits than a poor childless adult. The single mother may get a free apartment, cash payments, additional food stamps, etc., that are unavailable to the single father. Those should be entered on the female side of the ledger. (“The Work Versus Welfare Trade-Off: 2013” report from Cato Institute runs the numbers for a single mother with two children, roughly equivalent to a pre-tax wage of $50,540 per year in Massachusetts.)

What about married people? A married person, especially if he or she left the workforce for a number of years, may have a lower W-2 wage compared to an equivalently educated spouse. Yet the lower-income spouse may be able to spend some of the higher-income spouse’s wages in addition to his or her own, possibly enjoying a higher ability to consume than does the nominally higher-earning spouse. If it is primarily women who are the lower-earning spouses in marriages then this correction would result in a boost to total female spending power. [Anecdotally when our married friends talk about a financial decision, e.g., whether to do a kitchen renovation desired by the wife or to spend money on a hobby or trip as desired by the husband, it is generally the wife whose preference prevailed.]

How about divorced Americans? Our interviews with divorce litigators nationwide reveal that in many jurisdictions the spouse with a lower earning capacity would be entitled to a larger-than-50-percent share of any marital assets. These money flows can be significant but are not present in any statistics on earnings or wages. (See, for example, the $1 billion that Harold Hamm was ordered to pay the wife who sued him.) In most states the lower-earning spouse can also get alimony, which would appear in household income data (assuming that she voluntarily and accurately reports it to a surveyor) but not in any data on wages (the primary source for complaints that the U.S. is gender-biased). A divorced adult may also collect child support (see below). Again, if the lower-earning spouse tends to be a woman correcting for these effects will boost total female spending power.

Divorce itself can be a significant expense (estimated at roughly $50 billion per year paid to lawyers, psychologists, etc.) and divorce litigators nationwide told us that often men were ordered to pay women’s legal fees. So it would make sense to look at who filed the divorce lawsuit (mostly women) and assume that the person did so for personal benefit, then look at who was ordered to paid the costs (ultimately the children, actually, say the litigators), and treat that spending as a gift from one gender to the other.

What about never-married Americans? Never-married women who live in cities may actually earn higher wages than men (punditfact). The Wall Street Journal says that never-married women nationwide earn 96 percent of what men earned, according to the BLS. Based on our interviews with attorneys and consumers, however, the official stats leave out some spending power. Some single women who became pregnant in states with unlimited child support managed to sell their abortions ($250,000 was a typical number and no W-2s were issued for this “labor”). If a child is produced, a never-married woman could supplement her income by having a child and collecting child support.

How does the child support system affect this analysis? Suppose that an adult American has three children with three dermatologists. If the sexual acts that produced these children occurred in Wisconsin, the parent who wins custody can get 17 percent of each doctor’s pre-tax income, pretty close to 33.3 percent of post-tax income and thus his or her net spending power is the same as any one of the dermatologists. As women have the power to decide whether or not to carry a baby to term, it would most likely be a woman in this situation. If she got bored and decided to take a $20,000/year job at a non-profit organization her W-2 earnings and the doctors’ would go into the comparison cited by political advocates to show that women in the workforce were not being treated fairly.

The adult who gets custody of a child also has a lower tax rate for his or her earnings. Regardless of the amount of child support revenue or how much, if any, is spent on the child, the child is a “dependent” from the IRS’s point of view and the custodial parent gets a tax deduction for that child. If the custodial parent receives gifts or buys things for the child and then gives those things to charity, the adult can take a tax deduction for the value of the items. Once again, this lifts spending power without changing W-2 earnings. (See “The High Price of Being Single in America” (Atlantic) for how small tax advantages can add up.) To the extent that it is primarily women who can choose whether or not to continue a pregnancy and who can obtain custody of a child, this correction would result in an increase in spending power for women.

Readers: What else would be required to create an accurate accounting of the difference in spending power between America’s men and America’s women? And is it more important to focus on spending power or on W-2 wages?

Related:

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Why did France let two Al Qaeda-allied guys roam around their country?

The sad events last week in France were not surprising to me except the fact that the French knew that at least one of the brothers involved in the Charlie Hebdo attack had trained in Yemen with Al-Qaeda (2011) while the other was actually imprisoned from 2005 to 2006 for trying to join the jihad in Iraq (and then imprisoned again in 2008). As Al-Qaeda is a military opponent of France, why were these guys allowed to roam free around France? An American who joins a foreign military that is engaged in hostilities against the U.S. loses his or her citizenship (State Department site) and therefore the right to roam free with the U.S. (though perhaps under our new immigration policies he or she would be welcomed back anyway?). In addition to the periodic prosecutions and imprisonments, the French put in the time and effort to track these guys for years, though surveillance had recently been dropped. Why wouldn’t they simply have put that time and effort instead into moving them out of France?

Related:

  • British government’s attempts to terminate citizenship for terrorism suspects: Independent; Daily Mail
  • Wikipedia article on statelessness, a possible consequence for people who lose citizenship (perhaps international laws need to be updated given that now there are “stateless” organizations waging wars?)
  • United Nations web site on the subject of statelessness and the UN’s efforts to eliminate it
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Longfellow Bridge Repairs A Year Behind Schedule?

A friend of a friend is involved in the Longfellow Bridge repairs here in Boston (see previous posting about how the repairs, if done within budget, will cost 4X the original construction cost, adjusted for inflation). There hasn’t been a public announcement yet but apparently the project is already roughly a year behind the 3.5-year schedule (which would have enabled a reopening of Boston-to-Cambridge traffic in late 2016).

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Barack Obama’s Community College Initiative

Barack Obama wants to make community college free (politico). This announcement comes right after the American Economics Association meeting in which solid evidence was presented that the returns to attending non-selective colleges, at least for a lot of majors, is zero or negative (previous posting). Coincidentally, a friend came over for dinner this evening. Her sister has a master’s degree and teaches remedial skills in a Midwestern community college. “She pours her heart into the job, which can be tough because people come out of high school functionally illiterate. But she loves math and statistics,” said my friend, “so she did a study and found that students who’d been through her remedial program did not earn higher grades in their subsequent classes compared to a control group of students who did not get the remedial program.” What happened when the administrators saw the results? “Nothing. They’re still doing it even though it is expensive, time-consuming for students, and has been proven unhelpful.”

What do readers think? Will this make Americans more desirable to employers? Or just keep Americans age 18-20 out of the workforce and therefore out of the unemployment statistics?

Update: found a 1960 quote from Kingsley Amis: “The delusion that there are thousands of young people about who are capable of benefiting from university training, but have somehow failed to find their way there, is…a necessary component of the expansionist case…More will mean worse.”

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Could talking to high school students constantly about sex encourage them to have sex?

What if you put a big barrel of condoms in a high school and put a sign on it saying “You can use these while you are having sex?” Would that encourage the 14-18-year-olds to have sex? The previous folks who looked into this question, typically with small samples, said “no.” The paper “Fighting AIDS, Changing Teen Pregnancy? The Incidental Fertility Effects of School Condom Distribution Programs” (Buckles and Hungerman; presented at American Economics Association 2015) looked a little more carefully. The researchers pulled birth certificates from the counties with free condom distribution in schools. They looked at births to women aged 15-19 compared to births to women aged 20-24 (the control group that presumably wouldn’t have had access to high schools) and found that births to the 15-19-year-olds increased by about 10 percent after the condom barrels went in. (Responding to an audience question, they said that they didn’t have any data on abortions so they couldn’t say how many extra pregnancies resulted from the free distribution programs. They noted that accurate data on abortion prevalence from surveys is difficult to obtain because people lie.)

Incidentally, the researchers noted that the American Academy of Pediatrics recently came out with a recommendation that condoms be distributed in schools. Thus people who get paid to provide health care to children support a policy that results in a larger customer base.

Updated link to the article: https://www3.nd.edu/~dhungerm/BH_School_Condoms.pdf

See also https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29993228/ (final version of the paper: “We find that access to condoms in schools increases teen fertility by about 12 percent.”)

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The Son Also Rises: Racism may not be relevant to inequality

The Son Also Riseslooks at social mobility, of which income and wealth correlation from generation to generation is a component, across a range of societies including the U.S., England, Sweden, India, China, Japan, and Korea. It turns out that there is no correlation between the ethnic homogeneity of a society and the amount of social mobility, contrary to what one would expect if racism were a factor in keeping sub-sections of a society either in a high-status or low-status condition.

I’m going to be writing about this important book in the days to come so I recommend grabbing the Kindle version to everyone who is interested in the questions “Why are some people more successful than others?”, “Whom should I have children with?”, “How many children should I have?”, and “What should I do with those children?”

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