Category: Coronaplague

South Dakota’s governor Kristi Noem is infamous for failing to #FollowScience and order her subjects to wear masks (though she might argue that she was merely following World Health Organization’s science from January-June 2020 (“don’t wear a mask”)). Her “government can’t protect you from a respiratory virus” attitude is shocking to those who have faith in technocratic “leadership.”

We stopped overnight in Rapid City in mid-November, en route to Bend, Oregon. Compared to Massachusetts or Oregon, it turns out that the observed mask rituals on the ground are not that different in practice. Oregon has huge signs, for example, ordering people to wear masks when on trails. Only about 30 percent of folks out walking obey the order. South Dakota has no order, but about 30 percent of folks choose to wear masks.

Just as residents of South Dakota are free to live unmasked, businesses in South Dakota are free to require masks. Our hotel, for example, required masks in the lobby. A lot of shops had “masks required” signs out front. In a bagel shop that had no signs regarding mask use, nearly all of the customers came in wearing masks and did not remove them until seated at a table.

Just as in Maskachusetts, folks would rather use their limited budget for human interaction on adults in restaurants rather than children in schools. The Rapid City schools, for example, are on a “hybrid” schedule currently. (Contrast to Ireland, where everything is closed except schools!)

A few snapshots. Note that our Maximum Macho president Jimmy Carter is parked right in front of a bridal boutique. (Downtown Rapid City has statues of all of the legitimate presidents (i.e., everyone except Donald Trump).)

Here’s a 6-year-old’s summer-to-fall transition plan from 2015:

The text:

Summer to fall
Close the beach
Close the summer fun!
Close the camp!
Close the sleepovercamp!
Close the picknick!
Close the pool!
Close the summer!
Open School!

It occurred to me that this is precisely the plan that U.S. state governors (except South Dakota’s) have been following… except for that last step.

From a physician friend, “Government’s 14-day quarantine policy is ‘fundamentally flawed’, groundbreaking report finds” (Telegraph):

The 14-day quarantine introduced by the [UK] Government is the least effective of all strategies to prevent the spread of Covid into the community, a groundbreaking study has found.

The research showed the longer the quarantine, the higher the rates of people not complying and so the greater the risk of an infected person spreading the virus into the community,

The calculations were based on modelling, confirmed by the Government’s own SAGE advisers, that as few as 28 per cent of asymptomatic individuals comply with quarantine, and just 71 per cent of those with symptoms. By contrast, Public Health England assumed a compliance rate of 100 per cent.

What would the right strategy be, according to #Science?

It found the most effective strategy for preventing further transmission of coronavirus was testing arrivals three days into quarantine and freeing them from it if the results were negative.

But this strategy is only optimum because of human noncompliance:

“But it also shows that the current 14-day quarantine policy is fundamentally flawed in ignoring human behaviour and compliance with the rules.

Thus, #Science actually proves that RFID chips in the necks of college students is the best strategy. If the healthy are quarantined, then we’re talking about a society in which civil liberties are less important than fighting the War on COVID-19. Why do things by half measures, then? Chip the citizens, residents, and visitors in the UK and #SaveLives!

Related:

• “The Lockdown is Lawful” (UK Constitutional Law Association) and “The Lockdown is Lawful: Part II”: Nearly all of these arguments support my proposal of universal RFID chipping.

covidexitstrategy.org is the web site that our governor uses to adjust his travel order as to which states are so plague-ridden that a quarantine is required on arrival in our righteous disease-free midst (New York and New Jersey had a higher death rate than #3 Maskachusetts).

Can we use the same map to plan an optimum American lifestyle in the face of coronaplague? My casual inspection of the map reveals that Florida and Texas both have fairly low rates of “cases” (positive tests, potentially from those who actually are not even infected, much less sick), especially given that they didn’t have raging Wave #1 plagues and therefore wouldn’t have the immunity that at least some populations in MA, NJ, NY, CT, etc. would have.

Would the optimum lifestyle right now therefore be to live in a single-family home in a low-density part of Florida during the winter and in a single-family home in a low-density part of Maine during the summer? If 183 days are spent in Florida (for the excellent schools, according to NYT), the optimizer escapes state income and estate tax.

Why not walk unmasked on a wide Atlantic beach in the winter and then walk in the Maine woods (don’t forget a gallon of 100% DEET bug spray!) in the summer while paying only property tax in both locations? Play outdoor tennis and eat in outdoor restaurants all year in both locations.

Who has a better idea for a family of at least moderate wealth?

Atlantic Beach, Florida (near Jacksonville), January 2019:

Jacksonville Beach, also January 2019:

From April 6, Best guess as to when the first successful COVID-19 therapy will be widely available?

Keeping in mind that it took months for coronavirus tests to be invented, approved, and manufactured (still not in sufficient quantities except for those who are hospitalized), what’s your best guess as to when you can go into the hospital ED, have the nurse shout out “COVID-19” and then an assistant comes in with some pills or a shot that will keep the symptoms down to some reasonable level of misery?

My guess: between July 2020 and March 2021, with October 2020 as the best single month guess.

How do we rate this prediction? I’m going to go with “Spectacularly wrong.” I started the April 6 post with “I’m a big believer that viruses are smarter than human beings.” Even with that, I was gulled into thinking that all of the world’s humans devoting nearly 100 percent of their energy to fighting coronavirus would actually be able to come up with something.

What do we have? From October 22, “FDA Approves First Treatment for COVID-19”:

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the antiviral drug Veklury (remdesivir) for use in adult and pediatric patients 12 years of age and older and weighing at least 40 kilograms (about 88 pounds) for the treatment of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization. Veklury should only be administered in a hospital or in a healthcare setting capable of providing acute care comparable to inpatient hospital care. Veklury is the first treatment for COVID-19 to receive FDA approval.

Mission Accomplished?

A second randomized, open-label multi-center clinical trial of hospitalized adult subjects with moderate COVID-19 compared treatment with Veklury for five days (n=191) and treatment with Veklury for 10 days (n=193) with standard of care (n=200). Researchers evaluated the clinical status of subjects on Day 11. Overall, the odds of a subject’s COVID-19 symptoms improving were statistically significantly higher in the five-day Veklury group at Day 11 when compared to those receiving only standard of care. The odds of improvement with the 10-day treatment group when compared to those receiving only standard of care were numerically favorable, but not statistically significantly different.

In other words, you need multiple studies and a Zoom session full of statisticians to tease out any useful effect.

Does GB get the prize for accuracy so far? His comment:

Some of the fat and lung comprised will die and the rest will be cured, by virtue of not already being unhealthy. Medical cure, nope, modern medicine ain’t that good.

Who wants to make a new or revised prediction of when medicine will simply cure us of Covid-19?

Related:

• A typical failure… “Lilly Statement Regarding NIH’s ACTIV-3 Clinical Trial” (October 26): Based on an updated dataset from the trial reviewed on October 26, no additional COVID-19 patients in this hospitalized setting will receive bamlanivimab. This recommendation was based on trial data suggesting that bamlanivimab is unlikely to help hospitalized COVID-19 patients recover from this advanced stage of their disease. In this updated dataset, differences in safety outcomes between the groups were not significant.

From mass.gov, “Halloween During COVID-19” (“Consistent with the Halloween activity guidance released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention”). First some Dos:

• A costume mask is not a substitute for a face mask or face covering. To protect yourself and others, ensure you are wearing a protective face mask or covering instead of or in addition to a costume mask. [A bandana is legal and effective PPE against coronavirus, but a Batman mask is not?]
• Hold virtual costume contests or pumpkin carving events.

Now the Don’ts:

• Attending crowded costume parties held indoors, or any gatherings that exceed indoor or outdoor gathering limits;
• Going to an indoor haunted house where people may be crowded together and screaming; and
• Going on hayrides or tractor rides with people who are not in your household.

Related:

• Ivy League debate over Halloween costumes