Landfall: October 9, 2024 at 8:30 pm. Supposedly about 4 million customers lost power (source: Ron DeSantis press conference).
Mid-afternoon the next day:
Early evening:
The morning of the second day:
Apparently there was power at the big airport in Tampa because they resumed operations about 36 hours after the hurricane made landfall:
FIRST FLIGHT OUT: We reopened and resumed flight operations this morning at 8 a.m. ❤️ As always, please check with your airline for the latest flight information. ✈️ pic.twitter.com/exAPP6KBfS
(Orlando had reopened a few hours earlier, so they too had power despite being in the middle of the Band of Destruction (TM).)
Afternoon of second day:
About 48 hours after the hurricane hit, the total customers out has declined from 3.4 million to 2 million:
The bad news is that restoration for some Floridians won’t be until 8 days after the hurricane made landfall. Here’s FPL’s estimate:
I’m not sure if people in neighborhoods with underground lines (like ours!) will get power sooner. Currently, 10 percent of FPL’s customers are out versus 17 percent for the state.
I can’t figure out why the customer numbers are so high. I thought that the transmission lines were designed to handle hurricane-force winds (and they were further beefed up after 2019; see Tough questions from reporters for Ron DeSantis). Maybe there are a lot of neighborhoods with above-ground powerlines for local distribution?
Strong independent female linewomen continued to work through the night, apparently…
2.5 days after landfall, it looks like Naples and Fort Myers are on their way back to normal while half of Tampa is dark. More than half of the Floridians who originally lost power now have it back (thanks once again to the efforts of linewomen who identify as female):
around lunch time…
Three days (72 hours) after landfall:
The pace of restoration seems to slowed down in the dark:
3.5 days after landfall:
Not a great situation in Tampa, with more than one third of customers without power. On the other hand, the total is down below 1 million compared to 4 million at the start.
Four days (96 hours) after landfall and about 500,000 customers are still out. More than 235,000 of them are Tampa Electric customers, which has only 840,000 total customers.
Florida Power and Light now says that they’ll have nearly everyone restored, even in directly hit Sarasota, by Tuesday night. (Also that they’ve thus far restored 90 percent of their affected customers, 1.8 million people who’d lost power at one point.) Speaking of FPL, if you were to watch their X feed you’d learn that electricity restoration is definitely not something that white males do:
Crews are working through severely damaged areas in Manatee County — one of the hardest-hit areas during both #Milton and #Helene — to repair damaged equipment where it is safe to do so. Rest assured, we will not stop until every last customer has power restored. pic.twitter.com/0AZbFeIsv0
We continue to restore power to our customers in Volusia County. We'll keep working around-the-clock to turn the lights back on. pic.twitter.com/eXsDrXOLsj
And as of Tuesday at noon, FPL indeed had all but 38,000 customers back online. Tampa Electric (TECO) continued to be an outlier with 100,000 customers still dark.
As Hurricane Milton “barreled” (the obligatory verb for an object moving at 5-10 mph) into Sarasota, Kamala Harris threatened merchants:
About 12 hours later, Orbitz is showing hotel rooms in Orlando for a stay beginning tonight at $122/nights. If you’re willing to stay at the La Quinta… $72/night. For those who want to be ready for Disney World’s reopening tomorrow, the on-property Swan hotel is $252/night. Perhaps Jussie Smollett reported having been overcharged?
What about a hotel in Miami, which was never forecast to be “barreled into”?
I won’t be staying in a hotel tonight because I need to get back up on a ladder. Like Jeffrey Epstein, these hurricane screens didn’t hang themselves and I fear that they won’t unhang themselves either. (The previous owners of our house invested in impact glass doors and windows, but the front door is an unusual shape and they left the original door in place. The wide Armor Screen covers an outdoor dining area that has a bug screen whose frame is hurricane-proof (supposedly) but whose screen material is sacrificial. My thought on the hurricane screen for that area was that we could use it to store all of our outdoor items in the event of a truly bad storm.)
It was mostly peaceful yesterday here in Jupiter (Palm Beach County). The schoolteachers were enjoying the start of their two-day taxpayer-funded holiday while everyone else worked (health care, retail, expert witness, etc.). There was a bit of rain and the wind picked up around 9 pm. There were a handful of tornadoes in SE Florida caused by Hurricane Milton, but none came into Jupiter itself (one was in Jupiter Farms, to our west, one in western Palm Beach Gardens in Avenir, and a sad one for aviators in Fort Pierce that deposited some airplanes outside the airport fence).
An American faced with hazardous weather who wants to know whether to evacuate his/her/zir/their house or apartment must first do a web search to find a site that maps flood or evacuation zones, typically A through E. Then the citizen, documented immigrant, temporary protected status migrant, or undocumented migrant must scour various state and county web sites to try to figure out what the latest evacuation orders are by city, county, or state. Here’s part of a story from our local newspaper:
There are many ways for the above process to go wrong. Why not a phone app that gets GPS data from the phone hardware and operating system and does all of the above work reliably? The server just needs to have a database of evacuation and flood zones and a canonical up to date list of evacuation orders. Why is it a human’s job to do something that can be done much more reliably by a computer?
For Floridians during hurricane season the app could run continuously in the background and send alerts as necessary.
One wrinkle is that people who live in mobile homes are often ordered to evacuate even if they aren’t in a surge-prone zone. The ideal app, therefore, would know about trailer parks and maybe get loaded with a database from Zillow or similar regarding the housing type at a given address.
What about people who aren’t competent users of smartphones? Nearly all of them have an app-capable TV and I think those TVs can and do run software when the TV appears to be off. Some code could be built into TVs to connect to the same server that the phone apps connect to. In the event of an applicable evacuation order, the TV would wake up and display/speak “Time to evacuate!”. This would be a little more complex to set up because TVs don’t include GPS receivers and the street address of the TV might have to be entered.
As an added bonus to this app infrastructure, a resident of the U.S. could register his/her/zir/their address and phone/email with the server. The server could then put the registrants into a geospatially indexed database and query to find those affected by a newly issued alert and then email/text the relevant subscribers: “If you’re at 1141 George Perry Floyd Memorial Boulevard right now, which you said was your home address, your county has issued an evacuation order covering your neighborhood. Click here for more information, including a list of county-run shelters.” No matter how fast the U.S. population grows via open borders the computational capability of server CPUs should grow yet faster and, therefore, it would never be impractical to issue personalized alerts to every resident of the U.S.
With all of the hundreds of billions of dollars spent by the federal government on disaster-related projects over the years, why hasn’t something like this been built by the government? Google, Apple, or Amazon could probably build it pretty easily given that those companies already know our addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses. If the above capabilities were built into Android and iOS that would cover almost everyone. Maybe these big companies wouldn’t want to implement this capability, though, due to fear of liability in case they happen to miss an evacuation order. (Maybe they could be protected from liability as the COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers were?)
Here’s a concrete example from Tampa (wiped out in 1848 and hit badly again in 1921), starting with the “evacuation zone map” for Hillsborough County:
The official evacuation order says “Hillsborough County has issued a mandatory evacuation order for Evacuation Zones A and B…”, but the the legend doesn’t mention “zones”. The legend refers to an “evacuation level” of either A or B:
If we look at a satellite view of the city we can see that a lot of people shouldn’t have to run away:
My favorite steakhouse, Bern’s, is in the center of the city and Zone C. Same deal for Columbia Restaurant in Ybor City. The art museum, on the other hand, is in Zone A. Need to go to the hijab store in Brandon, Florida (suburban Tampa)? That’s not in any evacuation zone (i.e., the hijab inventory should be safe). The Tampa Zoo, on the other hand, seems to be in Zone A, which is not great news for the animals. Busch Gardens is not in any evacuation zone. The big airport? Zone A.
During the Tampa evacuation it seems that some people ran away who didn’t need to and some people stayed despite an order to evacuate because they didn’t know what zone they were in. Once on the road, things got more chaotic with shelters that filled up and traffic jams. Officials were saying “You don’t have to go more than 10 or 20 miles”, but residents didn’t know which shelter was the most sensible destination so some folks might have driven 100+ miles away to a hotel or relative’s house. Ships always have muster stations so that people know where to go in the event that the whistle blows 7 times and then there is a long horn sound. Maybe the app could have a preplanned idea of which shelter people in which blocks of a city should go to first, adjusted for the pet ownership status of the app user (it’s more complex to evacuate with a pet than one might think; only some shelters are pet-friendly and the owner is required to have and bring a crate big enough for the pet and the owner can’t stay with the pet while in the shelter). This could be refined if information is received that a shelter is full and turning people away.
What about after the hurricane arrives? The app/server combo could send an SMS or push notification reminding people to put their phones into low-power mode. The software could then notify people when it was safe to return to their individual neighborhoods (this can be complicated after a hurricane because sometimes bridges to barrier islands are destroyed and/or roads are blocked by trees). Using data from poweroutage.us, the software could include SMS information about whether power was likely to be available at a user’s home (maybe someone would choose to remain with friends or relatives until power was likely back).
Separately, here were our neighbors’ Hurricane Milton preparations as of yesterday, which may or may not meet FEMA standards:
“FEMA Scrambles to Confront Two Storms—and Misinformation” (WSJ): “Instead, federal officials’ efforts to save lives are being complicated by an unusual level of politically charged misinformation, which authorities say risks leading people to disregard evacuation orders…” (the authorities are sure that the problem is that Americans are allowed to speak their minds on Twitter and not that people in a country where IQ is falling might not have the brainpower and diligence to get through the multiple web sites that are required to make an evacuation decision. (If the “authorities” are correct maybe Twitter and Facebook need to be shut down any time that an emergency has been declared? If “misinformation” is killing people and saving lives from COVID-19 justified suspending the First Amendment right to assemble then surely it would make sense to suspend the First Amendment as a hurricane approaches the U.S.)
It looks as though Florida is more or less cleaned up after Hurricane Helene. All schools were open as of yesterday:
Today in Perry, I announced that all school districts are open following Hurricane Helene. It’s essential for kids to have a sense of normalcy, uninterrupted education, and access to resources—especially in challenging times.
As of today, approximately 23,000 of Florida’s 11.4 million electricity customers are out:
I’m in Fort Worth, Texas right now as part of a software/electronics/avionics expert witness project so I haven’t been carefully following hurricane clean-up outside of Florida. The New York Times gives the impression that nothing bad has happened to anyone in North Carolina, for example. The current front page is all about the bad things that the prophets of the NYT expect Donald Trump to do if a second Nakba should occur:
(Note that the Biden-Harris-Whoever-Is-Actually-Running-Things administration recently prosecuted and imprisoned a Republican for a troll tweet that Democrats should vote by SMS. Harvard Law Review: “That Mackey’s primitive meme — sandwiched between thousands of his other tweets — could have fooled American voters into believing that the 2016 election allowed voting by text does indeed strain belief.” See also “Man Who Spread Misinformation on Trump’s Behalf Sentenced to 7 Months” (NYT). Reasonnotes that the Biden-Harris-Whoever criminal justice apparatus used its discretion to refrain from prosecuting a Democrat for similar behavior and that the law used to imprison the Republican was passed in 1870 “to deter the Ku Klux Klan from trying to prevent black people from voting”.)
The next section down is about how Trump is bad while Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney are good:
If the NYT is our guide, as I hope that it is for all of us, nothing newsworthy is going on with respect to Hurricane Helene damage either in Florida or anywhere else.
…. for the schoolteachers here in Palm Beach County. The forecast called for some rain, winds of about 20 knots, and for the storm to track off Florida’s west coast (i.e., “the other coast”) and then, in a move sure to delight Democrats, directly over Ron DeSantis’s house in Tallahassee (Greta Thunberg may have moved on to Queers for Palestine, but the Wrath of Climate Change God is still just).
With all of the spinning air there was a tornado watch, but that could be a reason to keep schools open. For many teachers and children, school is a far safer place to be during a tornado than home, especially if the home was built prior to the statewide Florida Building Code of 2002.
Every business was open, except for a few restaurants with primarily outdoor seating. We did not lose power even for one second (thanks to the grid hardening initiative approved by Governor DeSantis in 2019 and opposed by Democrats?).
A few palm trees shed fronds in our neighborhood, but this won’t damage even a parked car. It is nothing like being in the Northeast where an oak tree can destroy a house due to the weight being substantially near the top of the tree. (A friend’s house in the Boston suburbs was recently assaulted by an oak tree (fell down on a calm wind day). The removal of the tree via crane cost over $5,000 and only now is he beginning to contemplate roof, window, and siding repairs.)
The event was an interesting study in media-driven fear. A dozen friends and relatives called to see if we had survived the apocalypse. They knew that we lived on the east coast of Florida and that the hurricane had traveled off the west coast, but the media reports that they’d consumed made it sound as though most of Florida was threatened/trashed.
Related… if Americans vote correctly in November, Naples, Sanibel Island, Sarasota, and Palm Beach will be on track for extra federal taxpayer assistance. After Hurricane Ian trashed wealthy west coast barrier island beachfront property in 2022… “VP Harris slammed for saying Hurricane Ian aid will be ‘based on equity’” (New York Post):
Vice President Harris came in for a torrent of criticism after telling an audience that “communities of color” would be first in line for relief in the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Ian.
“We have to address this in a way that is about giving resources based on equity, understanding that we fight for equality, but we also need to fight for equity,” she said during a discussion with Priyanka Chopra at the Democratic National Committee’s Women’s Leadership Forum on Friday.
“If we want people to be in an equal place sometimes we need to take into account those disparities and do that work,” she added.
Florida isn’t the greatest for 150-knot GA. If you fly for two hours you end up in a place that looks almost exactly like the place where you live (flat, palm trees, a beach nearby, etc.). It’s not like going from BED to MVY, BTV, or BHB where the differences are dramatic after a short flight. If you assume that passengers can’t tolerate more than about 2 hours in a light plane you probably need to be going at least 275 knots so that you can make it to Chattanooga and the beginning of the mountains within 2 hours. I guess that means a Piper Meridian is the minimum if you want to get a family of non-pilots interested in a trip?
[The airports listed above are Bedford, Maskachusetts, Martha’s Vineyard, Burlington, Vermont, and Bar Harbor, Maine. That reminds me to wonder the status of the lawsuits about the cruel and unusual punishment suffered by the asylum-seekers in being flown for free from Texas to MVY. “A federal judge says migrants can sue the company that flew them to Martha’s Vineyard” (state-sponsored NPR, April 2024). State-sponsored NPR did an article in 2023 about an MVY migrant living in a free apartment and receiving cash “under the table”. What are the migrant’s damages? He can’t demand reimbursement for the high housing costs in Maskachusetts because he’s not paying anything for housing. He can’t demand reimbursement of income tax being charged by Maskachusetts that he wouldn’t have had to pay in tax-free Texas because he isn’t pay any tax in MA.]
The map below shows the distance to the nearest mountains. Another reason why the Florida lifestyle isn’t cheap!
The characters in this true-crime drama have a Florida lifestyle that is 100 percent opposite mine. Instead of fighting with their HVAC equipment they’re out at clubs, concerts, fishing, hunting, mountain biking, etc. When there is nothing great to watch on TV, strippers and prostitutes can add zest to an evening. Things get a little complicated when a woman figures out that the best way to extend and enhance her lifestyle is for her husband to die. The author reminds us that fewer than half of murders in the U.S. are ever solved (about half of reported murders are “cleared” (state-sponsored NPR), but you have to consider that murders successfully disguised as accidents (“alligator involvement” in this case) aren’t part of the statistic).
The peasants revolted in 2022 by updating the Massachusetts constitution so that a progressive income tax rate system could be introduced in the progressive state. The higher 9 percent rate initially applies only to those who earn at least $1 million per year so it is the “Millionaires Tax”. Here’s a recent Wall Street Journal article about some unreasonably rich douches seeking to unload their $16 million 13,550-square-foot house.
Here’s the quiet escape part, buried towards the end:
They recently purchased a home in Vero Beach, Fla., and they also have homes in New York City and Marion, Mass.
I’m going to guess that they end up spending at least 183 days per year in Vero Beach!
What kind of person lives in a 13,550-square-foot house spewing energy out of four walls and a roof in the midst of what Democrats tell us is a “climate crisis” and an “existential threat to humanity”? A big donor to progressive causes! The New York Post has an article about the owners Lawrence Rand and Tiina Smith showing up at a fundraiser for a “left-wing” group that is also funded by George Soros.
Related… a tweet from the union that represents America’s smartest and best-educated workers:
"Critics who predicted a mass exodus of millionaires have been proven wrong, as the state continues to thrive economically while making critical investments in its future." Connecticut, follow Massachusetts' lead and implement a millionaire tax https://t.co/ZW2n0SIIB0
— American Association of University Professors (@AAUP) June 20, 2024
(the first time that anyone had to pay the new Maskachusetts tax was April 15, 2024, so I’m not sure why a higher-than-expected revenue in Year 1 of the new tax “proves wrong” those who said that the rich would move; packing up and moving might take a few years to organize; the one thing that I think the above AAUP post proves is that very few university professors expect to earn over $1 million in 2024 dollars)
MA rate of outmigration is rising rapidly, impacting population, size and workforce composition
Growing exodus of prime age workforce and higher income earners
Higher income earners are leaving MA with over half earning 1.3 to over 2.6 time the state average
Over the last decade, the Top-5 destinations have remained consistent: Florida, New Hampshire, Maine, North Carolina and Texas
Southern states are gaining the lions share of adjusted gross income
Florida gained $1.77 billion (42% [of the adjusted gross income that fled])
The BU nerds didn’t point out that migrants living in public housing are likely going to call Maskachusetts home forever!
(The BU analysis purports to have a number for outmigration in 2023, but I don’t see how this could be reliable. My understanding is that IRS data is the gold standard and the latest IRS data covers 2022 (see this recent WSJ article, for example; “Florida gained about twice as much income in 2022 from other states as it did in 2019”).)
I propose that we check back in 2028 to see what has happened with high-income Massachusetts residents during 2023-2026 (using IRS data). My theory is that it takes 2-3 years for a rich person to move. A peasant can throw the contents of his/her/zir/their 1BR apartment into a U-Haul and drive to a 1BR apartment in another state within a few months of deciding to move. The rich person, on the other hand, may have a lot of connections to unwind and might need to wait for a suitable house to be built in the destination state.
We recently had some windows added to our house. If you live in a northern lockdown state, this might not sound like a big deal: cut out some wood with a reciprocating saw, get a glass module (double pane to save the planet), frame around the glass module, touch up the paint. In the Florida Free State (TM), however, you need to do the following:
cut through cinder block and rebar
put a lintel above the opening that you just cut so that the house doesn’t fall down
pour some new concrete with rebar around the window opening
add wood framing just inside the new opening
bring in a window company at $3,700+/opening to install an impact-rated window into the wood and concrete with massive screws every 7 inches or so
deal with the building inspector multiple times already by this point
install new stucco on the concrete that you’ve just poured
paint the exterior
install new drywall on the interior
paint the drywall
The window company said that in pre-Biden times it was possible to find a general contractor to do all of the above (except the window item itself) for $5,000 per opening. We had four openings so it should have cost us about $20,000+ for the general contractor and $14,750 for the windows themselves.
Of course, the old $20,000 is the new $40,000 or maybe $100,000. The window company’s usual partners refused even to look at the project, deeming it too small. Our architect worked with a mid-sized contractor regularly and he quoted $37,250 for his part of the work. A small-time guy who’d done some stuff very reasonably for us in the past quoted $18,000. We’d had huge price discrepancies for some other items at the house, e.g., install a mini-split A/C in the garage so it didn’t occur to us that the $18,000 was a mistake until after we saw how many guys and subcontractors the contractor put on the project and how many weeks it took.
Towards the end of the project, he came back to me and opened by saying that he knew that I owed him only $18,000 because that’s what he quoted. But he had some paperwork to show that the proper cost was closer to $40,000 and explained that he’d made mistakes in preparing the quote, leaving out a lot of concrete work.
I asked out 8- and 10-year-olds what they would have done in the situation. I tried to prepare them for the scenario by asking what if the Honda dealer quoted us $1,000 for new tires and then said they’d made a mistake and asked for $2,000 when the car was completed. They both said that the Honda dealer should be held to the contract. Then I asked them about our specific contractor, whose friendly careful people they’d seen in the house for all four months of the one-month project. They gave the same answer: hold the guy to his bid. I tried to get them to back off from this position by pointing out that the Honda dealer might be worth tens or hundreds of millions of dollars while our contractor was just a regular working guy and had a lot of subcontractors to pay, but I couldn’t make them see a distinction.
Excerpts from the Notice of Acceptance that is part of the building permit:
(Readers might reasonably wonder what I decided to do. I paid $37,250, which the competitor had quoted, since that was the only reference that I had for a correctly quoted job. It seemed like a fair price for the quality and quantity of work that was done. (Plus, the guys who were sawing concrete blocks and doing other onerous tasks in the Florida heat and humidity will need money to pay off college graduates’ loans transferred by Joe Biden to the general taxpayer.) It wouldn’t be logically consistent, but if the Honda dealer made a mistake and gave me a written quote that they later said was lower than it should have been, I wouldn’t voluntarily pay more.)
We are informed by the New York Times and CNN that Governor Ron DeSantis has banned books that promote the 2SLGBTQQIA+ lifestyle. Here’s a photo taken this Pride at the local branch of the Palm Beach County Library system:
A couple of close-ups:
A potentially disturbing twist on Love is Love… the Pride books are right next to books regarding human-animal love:
