California police officer and firefighter pay

Here’s a fun database application with a web interface:

For young people who have been listening to politicians braying about the importance of STEM:

Related:

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Ideal Trump message to voters?

Folks:

Trump seems to be doing badly in the polls. Aside from conceding right now, chess-style, what’s his best strategy?

From the second debate transcript, it seemed to me that his most powerful message was that a status quo politician such as Hillary Clinton generally rides to power (and, in her case, wealth) on a magic carpet of broken promises. Trump, in response to Clinton saying he had “targeted immigrants, African Americans, Latinos, people with disabilities, Muslims,”

DT: It’s just words, folks. Just words. Those words, I’ve been hearing them for many years. I heard them when they were running for the Senate. In New York.

Where Hillary was going to bring back jobs to upstate New York and she failed. I’ve heard them where Hillary is constantly talking about the inner cities of our country, which are a disaster. Education-wise. Job0-ise. Safety-wise. In every way possible, I’m going to help the African Americans, help the Latinos, Hispanics. I am going to help the inner cities.

She’s done a terrible job for the African Americans. She wants their votes and does nothing and then comes back four years later. We saw that firsthand when the United States senator she campaigned where the —

MR: Mr. Trump, Mr. Trump — I want to get to audience questions and online questions.

DT: So, she’s allowed to do that, but I’m not allowed to respond. Sounds fair.

The moderator cut Trump off but, especially if expanded and supported by data, this seems like an effective message to voters who have been paying taxes and listening to incumbent politicians talk about all of the great things that the planned-by-them economy will do for average citizens.

In response to attacks on his business success, usually centered around some Chapter 11 reorganizations in the early 1990s (25 years ago, a bad time for leveraged real estate developers), he could tell the story of the Wollman Rink, which the government spent 6 years and $13 million trying to renovate. Trump was able to get it up and running in just 4 months for $2.5 million. This doesn’t exactly compare to the scale of the carnage when the Atlantic City casino went bankrupt, but voters don’t seem to have a great sense of proportion (Democrats lapped up the tax returns of Warren Buffett, never questioning why the world’s third-richest man has the same income as a successful Medicare ophthalmologist). And it is a direct comparison of standard government operating procedure versus what the Trump Organization can do. Similarly Trump could compare healthcare.gov ($1 billion+?) to any web sites that he may have built to support golf courses or hotels. Voters outside the Beltway can’t understand why it costs the government 4-40X what private industry pays for the same product or service (compare Boeing 757 operating costs for airlines and USAF, for example; also see what New York spends to operate helicopters).

On immigration, since Trump has demonstrated already that the quickest path to pariah status is questioning the wisdom of admitting folks from a particular country or particular religion, why not simplify to “Do you love sitting in traffic and paying 50 years of income to afford a house in a decent neighborhood? If so, you’ll love Hillary’s plan to expand the U.S. population to 600 million via immigration. If you think that 325 million is sufficient then vote for me and let’s be judicious about whom we invite to join our party. Even if you do want to live in a country dotted with Chinese-style megacities, ask Hillary how she refutes Milton Friedman’s observation that you can’t have open borders and a welfare state at the same time.” (maybe quote from this Senate Budget Committee report that says the 80-plus federal welfare programs cost $1 trillion annually and are the largest budget item currently (Social Security and Medicare are additional))

Since Trump can’t win the personal character war at this point (his comments about the availability of women surrounding TV stars being far more shocking to voters than the Clintons becoming billionaires through selling access and influence), why not stick to some simple policy points?

Readers: What else could Trump be doing in the home stretch of the campaign?

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FBI investigates Anthony Weiner?

“New Emails in Clinton Case Came From Devices Once Used by Anthony Weiner” (nytimes) contains an interesting section:

In a letter to Congress, the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, said the emails had surfaced in an unrelated case, which law enforcement officials said was an F.B.I. investigation into illicit text messages from Mr. Weiner to a 15-year-old girl in North Carolina.

What will it cost taxpayers to have the FBI look into the question of how exactly Anthony Weiner uses the Internet?

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Trump and Hillary voters looking at the same slides on immigration

At a gathering of photojournalists in California there was a presentation of photos and stories about immigrants from Afghanistan living in Sacramento. These folks typically got here because someone in their family had worked as an interpreter for the U.S. military or “were doctors, diplomats or engineers” somehow affiliated with our endless war. In other words at least one family member was fluent in English before arriving in California. Despite this advantage compared to many immigrants, the Sacramento Bee journalist told us that these 2,000 Afghans settled in Sacramento County are doing badly, consistent with the story saying “Professionals in their own country, they have been relegated to the American underclass, enduring poverty and crime.”

The audience vocally concluded from watching the slides and hearing the stories that our government needs to do a lot more for these folks (beyond the public housing, free unlimited health care, free cell phone, and food stamps to which they are already entitled). I pointed out that a Donald Trump supporter might conclude from the same story that we shouldn’t be accepting immigrants from Afghanistan if they can’t prosper here in the U.S. If they needed protection from their former neighbors, the Trump supporter would suggest that they be resettled in a culturally compatible country with a low cost of living (so as to reduce the burden on the American taxpayer).

This prompted a discussion amongst the 60 audience members as to whether anyone had a personal acquaintance with a Republican. For most of them it seems that the answer was “no” and therefore that they relied on conjecture and the press for what might motivate someone to resist Hillary Clinton (standard conclusion: voters who don’t support Hillary are stupid, sexist, and racist, in that order).

There was also a follow-up from a 2005 story regarding an Iraqi boy who came to Oakland for medical treatment. His entire family emigrated to the U.S. so now there are five kids, one of whom suffers from a permanent disability, and two adults being supported by the father’s paycheck as a truck driver plus any welfare (public housing, Obamacare, etc.) to which they are entitled. Only a racist would ask “How can we generate per-capita economic growth if we bring in foreigners who earn a below-median wage?” and therefore nobody raised the subject of whether this had been a wise investment of tax dollars.

Separately, a top German photographer whose specialty is scientific subjects was present as well. Although he says that immigration has rendered Germany unrecognizable even compared to a year or two ago, he supports the current government and Angela Merkel because “They really had no choice. A friend was sitting at his farm near the Austrian border and his son said ‘Dad, look at the woods.’ Out of the forest came a swarm of migrants who walked across the farm. After they were gone not a single sheep, chicken, or any other animal remained. It was like a locust swarm. Merkel recognizes that the only other option is to shoot people at the border and she is making the best of a bad situation.”

What did the future look like from this German’s perspective? “When I talk to scientists privately they say that the Earth can sustain about 2 billion people. We will soon have 10 billion so that means that either the human race goes extinct or about 8 billion people will die.” [Readers: Can he be right about the best estimates of a sustainable human population for the planet? China seems sustainable, if not a pleasant place to live for many of its citizens, and yet it supports 1.3 billion people on much less than half of the Earth’s land surface. Perhaps they are sucking ground water dry?]

Environmentalism was a popular theme for the photojournalists at this gathering and the environmentalists all agreed that the growth of human population was the primary reason that the environment is being trashed. Yet none of them (all Hillary supporters) raised a hand to ask “Why would we want to work to increase the U.S. population through immigration and guarantees to provide housing, food, and health care to however many children an immigrant family (or low-income native-born family) chooses to have?” (A lot of these folks had chosen not to have children or had been working so hard that the female partner’s fertility was inadvertently exhausted. So it seems that they are doing something truly altruistic in working to save the planet for the benefit of others’ children and grandchildren.)

I’m wondering if this is one reason why poll numbers have barely moved despite a lot of media coverage of the relative merits of various candidates. Americans with different political affiliations will look at the same story and come to opposite conclusions about what should be done. People complain about what the media does but perhaps it has almost no influence at all regarding the big issues (can still do a lot with stories centered on soundbites, e.g., Trump’s unfiltered comments on hypothetical women).

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Pence’s landing at LaGuardia

A Boeing 737, N278EA, carrying the Republican VP nominee (Mike Pence), overran the runway at LaGuardia at roughly 2315Z (7:15 pm says the New York Times; Z denotes Greenwich Mean Time; Daily News says 7:25 pm).

The runways at KLGA are grooved (airnav.com), which theoretically prevents hydroplaning and therefore landing calculations are done as though the runway were dry. (Book numbers for landing a jet on a “wet” runway are at least 15 percent longer than for a “dry” (or grooved) runway.)

Let’s see what the weather was like…

KLGA 272351Z 10010G15KT 3SM RA BR OVC010 13/12 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SLP192 P0032 60061 T01330117 10139 20072 58018 $
KLGA 272251Z 09009KT 3SM RA BKN009 OVC015 13/11 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 SLP205 P0014 T01330106 $

The closest METAR (weather observation) is from 2251Z. By jet standards the wind was light, blowing at 9 knots. However, considering that they were landing on runway 22 (224 degrees magnetic; 212 true), the direction of the wind was unhelpful. It was blowing from 090 true (METARs are in true degrees while runway numbers are abbreviations of magnetic directions). So the groundspeed would have been at least as high as the airspeed (about 120 knots Vref for a lightly loaded 737 (37 passengers plus 8 crew on board), plus 5 knots for the gusts?). The ceiling doesn’t seem to have been a factor. BKN009 means they’d have broken out of the clouds 900′ above the runway, well above the 200′ minimum. Visibility was 3SM (3 statute miles), well above the 1800′ minimum.

The incident generated a bunch of FAA NOTAMS (Notices to Airmen):

!LGA 10/167 (KLGA A2470/16) LGA RWY 22 PAPI OUT OF SERVICE 1610280141-1610292359
!LGA 10/166 (KLGA A2469/16) LGA NAV ILS RWY 22 GP OUT OF SERVICE 1610280137-1610292359
!LGA 10/165 (KLGA A2468/16) LGA NAV TKD LOC TYPE DIRECTIONAL AID RWY 22 LOC OUT OF SERVICE 1610280113-1610292359
!LGA 10/164 (KLGA A2467/16) LGA NAV ILS RWY 22 LOC OUT OF SERVICE 1610280058-1610292359
!LGA 10/163 (KLGA A2466/16) LGA RWY 04/22 CLSD 1610280030-1610281800

Pilots won’t be getting glide path assistance either from a radio beacon (ILS RWY 22 GP) or from the red/white lights (PAPI OUT OF SERVICE). The radio-based left-right guidance system is also broken (RWY 22 LOC OUT OF SERVICE). A $50,000 airplane with a WAAS-based GPS will find it easier to land at LaGuardia than will a $20 million airliner (the cost of adding modern avionics to airliners is prohibitive due to regulatory compliance costs).

How is it possible to run a modern jet off the runway? LaGuardia has some of the shortest runways of any busy U.S. airport. See My visual approach, and Asiana’s for what happens when a beginner tries to land there! Presumably the pilots of Pence’s chartered Boeing 737 were experienced, so in theory the 7000′ runway at LGA should not have presented a challenge. Boeing’s numbers suggest that even if wet, at a lighter weight, a 5000′ runway provides a comfortable margin of safety (see page 182, for example; I’m not quite sure exactly which variant of the 737 was carrying Pence).

Related:

  • Southwest 1248 (B737 ran off a snow-covered runway at Chicago Midway)
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What’s interesting about the new Apple products? (And is Tim Cook the new Steve Ballmer?)

Who has followed Apple’s product announcements today? Should I get a Mac as a travel laptop? If so, which one? This is mostly to run Microsoft Office (whose demise I confidently predicted in 1993; a browser-based editor would supplant it), Dropbox, and Chrome. Also to upload pictures on the go by pulling the SD card from the camera and, ideally, plugging it into the SD slot on the laptop.

Separately, “Why Tim Cook is Steve Ballmer and Why He Still Has His Job at Apple” (Harvard Business Review article expanded) is an interesting look at Microsoft’s profitable growth into irrelevance.

Related:

 

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Folks at Harvard support labor unions… everywhere except at Harvard

“Harvard Faculty Donate to Democrats by Wide Margin” (Crimson) says that “Ninety-six percent of donations in the data set from the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, which includes Harvard College, supported Democratic efforts. That figure was even higher—nearly 98 percent—at Harvard Law School.”

As labor unions are major donors to Democratic Party candidates it seems reasonable to infer that most Harvard College and Law School faculty members advocate for workers to unionize. Certainly in private conversations with Harvard faculty members support for labor unions has been almost total. This has been true for my friends who work at other universities as well. The only exception that these folks allow is that workers (other than themselves; the AAUP functions as a union to some extent) should not be unionized at their own university and/or that the university should not have to pay what already-unionized workers are demanding. Professors tend to be especially vehement on the subject of how graduate students should not be allowed to unionize for their work as research and teaching assistants.

This week I walked from the 98-percent Democrat Law School to the 96-percent Democrat Harvard College. What did I find? A strike by Harvard’s food service workers:

What do these folks want? “Affordable health care,” according to the signs. This seems odd due to the fact that the Great Father in Washington already gave us all affordable health care via the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”), signed into law by President Obama in 2010. A New York Times op-ed by a striking worker explains the situation further. [If there were a strike at the New York Times itself, would the paper provide its union members with space on the front page to air demands? Or is it only newsworthy when some other enterprise faces a strike?]

I’m wondering if this strike is the harbinger of further dissatisfaction among American workers. We’ve all, apparently, voted to spend 18 percent of our GDP on health care. Yet we apparently don’t want to hand over 18 percent of our paychecks to the health care industry.

Related:

  • Health care inflation in Boston (success for Union A = hardship for Union B)
  • my 2009 essay on health care reform (“We now spend so much on health care that it is very likely reducing our health compared to having a minimal system. In order to pay for our health care system, Americans are forced to work 25 percent longer hours than they otherwise would.”)
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Berkeley residents celebrate diversity in education

On a recent visit to Berkeley I received a long and detailed lecture on the benefits to students of a racially diverse educational environment (e.g., the learning of each student in a school with an all-Chinese student body would increase if some black students were mixed in and then would further increase if Latino and Native American students were added; it was unclear if there was any value to students identifying as “white”). The lecture was delivered by two parents and their daughter, a high school senior. The daughter had completely absorbed the parents’ philosophy on this subject and was in perfect accord on the merits of attending a school with a diverse mixture of students.

I asked “What are the demographics of the Berkeley Public Schools then?” They couldn’t give me a clear answer, however, because it seems that both children in their family have attended private schools at the cost of $70,000 per year (total) and a huge amount of commuting time and hassle compared to the public schools.

  • Visit to Berkeley, California (2010) in which I noted the existence of an underclass despite the fact that “for roughly 60 years, Berkeley has offered more services to its residents than virtually any other city in the U.S.”
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Buy a coffee table book and get a rich person’s perspective

At a recent gathering of photo journalists I learned about the practicalities of publishing coffee table books. Chinese printing has helped quite a bit, but a lavishly illustrated hardcopy book typically doesn’t make economic sense. How are these getting to market then? It seems that “sponsorship” from a rich person is common. This ends up skewing the content, however. People who are crazy rich are often interested in environmentalism, for example, so there are a lot of books about the fragility of the Earth and how beautiful are the parts that we haven’t trashed yet.

So next time that you’re in the bookstore remember that the large format photo book section could be titled “What rich people care about”.

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Hillary’s anti-poverty achievements

In Hillary Clinton’s 1969 Wellesley College speech she began the substantive portion of her speech by decrying the fact that “13.3 percent of the people in this country are below the poverty line”. Ms. Clinton has been near the top and center of American politics for many of the 47 years since that speech. How has her work on behalf of America’s vulnerable moved the needle? Census.gov says “The official poverty rate in 2015 was 13.5 percent, down 1.2 percentage points from 14.8 percent in 2014.”

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