Where to stop in Europe on the way to Israel?

Folks: When Americans began getting infected with HIV, some perhaps less-than-sensitive pilots wore shirts reading “I’m so old that I remember when sex was safe and flying was dangerous.”

I’m planning to attend a friend’s family event in Israel in July and would like to stop somewhere in Europe on the way there and/or on the way home. However, it does seem to me that “I’m so old that I remember when Europe was safe and Israel was dangerous.” I’m not seriously worried about being killed in Europe, though as a person traveling through the Continent’s airport my statistical risk will be higher than an ordinary citizen’s. However, I am worried that whatever country I choose for a stopover will be shut down following an attack by local Muslims (see this BBC article regarding the Belgians’ difficulties in reopening their international airport).

I’d like to arrive in Israel on July 1 or 2. I want to take a non-stop flight from somewhere in Europe. I want to get to that location, ideally, via a non-stop flight from Boston. It would be fun if it were not one of the countries that I have already visited.

Readers: Ideas?

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Why children should not be taught Latin (or philosophy)

Here are some emails sent our by a (rich suburban) school system’s superintendent:

Dear Families,

This morning, spray painted graffitti was found on the ground at the *** entrance to the *** School. Detective *** and Principal *** are working together to investigate the incident. An All School Meeting was held with students in grades 5 – 8 to discuss the incident and to request that anyone with possible information come forward.

Detective *** is continuing his investigation beyond the school campus.

We are taking this event seriously and doing everything we can to gather pertinent information.

As we learn more, we will keep everyone appropriately informed.

Seven hours later:

Dear *** School Community,

I want to provide you with additional information regarding the graffiti found at the *** entrance of the *** School this morning.

The words memento mori were spray painted on the ground at the entrance to the school. Provided below is a translation and explanation of the phrase from Wikipedia.

Memento mori (Latin: “remember that you must die”)(2) is the medieval Latin theory and practice of reflection on mortality, especially as a means of considering the vanity of earthly life and the transient nature of all earthly goods and pursuits.

This phrase has also been used in literature and film throughout time.

The school administration and the *** Police are collaborating to understand the impetus of this act and to gather any information about who may have carried it out. We are taking this act very seriously.

There will be an increased police presence on the campus and I will be reviewing safety protocols with the principals.

Because the graffiti does not specifically target any person or group, our sense is that this is a low level threat. However, we will take precautions as we move forward. We will be considering additional security steps for the buildings.

We will continue to share information with the community as we are able.

The next day:

Dear *** School Community,

Tonight at 7pm in the *** School auditorium, a public forum will be held to discuss the graffiti incident that occurred on our school campus.

Police Chief ***, Detective ***, and I will be present to talk about the steps that we are taking and to answer your questions. Principals, *** and *** will also be present along with members of the School Committee.

At this time, we do not have any more specific information to share about the graffiti. But, we want to provide an opportunity for the community to hear from us directly and to communicate your concerns and ask questions.

We hope that parents, faculty, staff, and community members will join us this evening.

Following the meeting:

Thank you to those who attended the forum last night. I know that many families are interested in the information from the forum, and so this is a brief overview including some changes that are part of our response to the graffiti incident.

Superintendent *** gave an overview of the safety measures in the district including the District School Safety Committee, *** School Crisis Team, Crisis Manual and the regular practice of safety drills. Chief *** explained the threat level assessment and how regional resources have been contacted to determine whether this incident matches any others in surrounding communities. Detective *** reviewed how he and Dr. *** are working with the 5-8 students and staff.

The investigation is active and ongoing. Dr. *** and Detective *** are communicating regularly about any information that comes forward from faculty, parents and/or students. Detective *** and Chief *** are consulting with a variety of school safety groups including STAR (School Threat Assessment Registry) and a *** County consortium for school safety. Both groups have confirmed that the *** Public Schools and *** Police Department response to this incident has been appropriate given the available information.

We will continue to have police presence on campus, and we will now lock the main entrance and use the buzzer system for visitors during the school day. Arrival and dismissal procedures will remain the same: the kindergarten doors and the main entrance will be unlocked between 7:45 and 8:15. Once the doors are locked, visitors should use the buzzer on the brick wall to the right of the main entrance doors. The office staff can see and communicate with visitors, and then “buzz” the center door open. We will continue to ask all visitors to come to the main office to sign in. The building will be unlocked at 2:50 or 12:35 so that after school activities can happen.

The K-4 faculty and staff will not be initiating whole-class discussions about the graffiti. They are, however, prepared to respond if students bring it up. Responses will be neutral and acknowledge student feelings; and questions will be answered as simply as possible. For example, a teacher might say, “Yes, there was some graffiti that made people feel very uncomfortable. That’s a normal feeling when something unexpected happens. We want everyone to feel good in school so they can do their best learning, and there are lots of adults looking out for you.”

We have practiced 3 safety drills this school year, have a crisis manual and tremendous support from the district and LPD – it is our greatest hope that we never have to implement any of these safety procedures for a real emergency. We cannot guarantee 100% that the school will be safe and secure, however, I am confident the faculty and staff (and students!) are prepared to respond in the case of an emergency.

The April Principal’s Forum is scheduled for Monday, April 4 (8:15-9:15 in the *** Multipurpose Room) and I have invited Superintendent *** ; School Committee Chairperson ***; and Detective *** to attend so that we can continue the important conversation about school safety with K-4 families.

Thank you for your support.

Related:

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Yahoo sale will reveal true value of a CEO?

Yahoo is trying to sell off the only part of the company that requires actual management (the “core Internet business”; the rest of the company just holds shares in Asian companies that have their own managers). See this New York Times article, for example. The public company’s board of directors decided that the services of Marissa Mayer were worth $365 million (see this posting). Yet there is no mention of any of the potential buyers of Yahoo expressing a desire to retain Marissa Mayer in the acquired “core business” or a willingness to pay her a specific amount. “Yahoo makes it easier to give Marissa Mayer a huge payday” says that the current Yahoo board would pay Mayer $37 million on her way out, but what would she be worth on her way into the acquirer’s enterprise?

If the answer is “nowhere near $365 million” then can we say that Yahoo’s CEO compensation process, which is typical for U.S. public companies, doesn’t reflect any kind of market? There is a real estate market. A huge apartment complex doesn’t typically go from being worth $365 million to being worth nothing. There is a market for gold, which is volatile, but not to the extent that a $365 million chest of gold could be worth next to nothing.

Related:

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Florida alimony profits and child custody litigation preserved by governor’s veto

“[Governor] Scott scuttles Florida alimony overhaul, citing child custody clause” describes a veto by Florida’s Governor Rick Scott of a bill passed by the state’s legislature that could have reduced alimony profits and custody litigation in the state.

See this Florida family law chapter for a description of the current law. Florida is unusual in offering “permanent alimony” after potentially just 7 years of marriage. This leads to stories like the following, from the Summary chapter:

a 50-year-old business manager who was between jobs told us about his first consultation with a top practitioner in Florida, a state that offers permanent alimony. His wife earned $220,000 consulting to government agencies and was divorcing him after more than 20 years of marriage (the youngest child had just turned 18 and thus aged out of the child support system). “The lawyer told me to go out immediately and rent the most expensive apartment in the city. She said ‘Start seeing this therapist right now. She is going to come testify that you are clinically depressed and will never be able to work again. My retainer is a non-refundable $10,000.'”

Florida offers unlimited child support profits, albeit at a smaller percentage of the defendant’s income than Massachusetts or Wisconsin. The precise profitability of a child is based on the division of the child’s time between the two litigants. Florida has no guidelines regarding a child’s schedule with the two litigants. As in other states with unlimited child profitability, profitability that is dependent on the schedule, and no guidelines for the schedule, this typically leads to 50-100 percent of the litigants’ combined assets being spent on legal fees. As in other states, however, it is typical for there to be a “primary” or “winner” parent and a “secondary” or “loser” parent. The child spends most of his or her time with the winner parent and the loser parent pays all of the child’s bills as well as most of the winner parent’s bills (assuming the winner parent wasn’t unwise enough to procreate with an impoverished defendant). Florida is a better-than-average state for men seeking to profit from the family law system. Census 2014 data show that 16 percent of Floridians profiting from child support are men, compared to only 3 percent in Massachusetts or 2 percent in Maryland.

The law that was passed by the legislature, Senate Bill 668, risked reducing the profitability of divorce lawsuits for both plaintiffs and attorneys by suggesting that alimony cashflow be a function of “time served” in the marriage. This is an increasingly common practice in other U.S. states, except where states, such as Texas, have gone to a German-style “no alimony” system. The proposed 50/50 custody default “premise”, not in any way binding on judges, would have brought Florida into line with just a handful of states, such as Alaska, Arizona, and Delaware that have a 50/50 custody presumption or guideline. (Note that largest studies of children of separated parents show that a 50/50 schedule is best for children (references; discussion).)

[If you dig into the text of the law, it is plain that there would still be plenty to fight about. Judges are encouraged to consider domestic violence allegations, for example, when awarding custody of cashflow-positive children. Judges are encouraged to speculate regarding what a defendant might be able to earn in a hypothetical perfect world: “‘Potential income’ means income which could be earned by a party using his or her best efforts and includes potential income from employment and potential income from the investment of assets or use of property.” This speculation is to include what “a party could reasonably expect to earn from the investment of his or her assets or the use of his or her property in a financially prudent manner.” (This does raise the question of why a judge who actually did know what different investment classes are going to return would continue to work as a judge. He or she could become infinitely rich on Wall Street with leveraged futures and options investments based on that knowledge.) Judges are instructed to hear evidence from both sides regarding what is “the customary retirement age” in an alimony defendant’s occupation and whether the alimony lawsuit loser’s “retirement is reasonable upon consideration of the [payor’s] age, health, and motivation for retirement and the financial impact on the [alimony recipient]”.]

The governor’s veto letter is interesting. for what it reveals about American attitudes toward family law. First is that years of litigation is the natural end of a sexual relationship between two Americans. There is no suggestion that American parents could separate via an administrative process as in some European countries. Some of the most successful lawyers whom we interviewed thought it was nonsensical to have litigated no-fault divorces, i.e., lawsuits that the plaintiff has a 100 percent chance of winning. Here’s an excerpt from Angie Hallier, a top Arizona litigator:

Existing divorce law in the United States says the only way to end your marriage is for one party to file a lawsuit against the other. … Divorce, by law, starts as an adversarial act. … Our legal system was set up to address wrongs. It deals with criminals. It decides who’s in the wrong when there’s a car wreck, or whether someone is guilty of medical malpractice when healthcare goes awry. When divorce laws were first written, somebody had to be in the wrong before a divorce could be granted. … Today, the litigation model of divorce still stands, despite the fact that no-fault divorce is the norm. … This adversarial system helps no one in the end.

Apparently what Hallier calls “this adversarial system” is helping at least some folks in Florida because nobody seriously contemplates replacing it! Certainly during our March/April trip to Ft. Lauderdale we saw plenty of billboards advertising the services of litigators, primarily those claiming to specialize in lawsuits regarding the profitability of children.

Second is the conflation of marriage and divorce with child custody litigation: “I would like to commend Senators … for their diligent efforts to reform Florida’s dissolution of marriage and alimony laws … child custody laws have evoked passionate reactions … because divorce affects families in many different ways.” In fact, the typical American child whose life is disposed of by a family court is not the subject of divorce litigation because the biological parents were never married and, indeed, may be only slightly acquainted.

Third is that spending 100 percent of the parents’ assets on legal fees through years of litigation results in some kind of thoughtfully customized schedule for children. The Governor writes “when a divorce involves a minor child [again, the conflation of marriage with child custody and child support litigation], the needs of the child must come before all others. … Our judges must consider each family’s unique situation and abilities and put the best interests of the child above all else.” (Again, note the use of the term “family” to describe two litigants who might have been acquainted for just one evening.) “Every child and/or family is unique” is a constant refrain throughout the American custody and child support litigation industry and yet the outcome of nearly all the cases is the same: every other weekend with the loser parent. (Texas is the only state that has been willing to tell litigants “You’re not special and your kids are probably not special; if you don’t agree on a schedule for your kids then you’ll find one in the statute [a 57/43 winner/loser time split].”)

What are the practical implications for citizens? If you’re the higher earning spouse and want to avoid giving your current partner an incentive to sue you, but without going to a state that imposes an income tax, move to Texas (no alimony; capped child support). If you’re a Floridian seeking to profit from the family law system, apparently one safe way to do that is to become a divorce litigator. The governor will apparently work to ensure that there is plenty at stake for parents to fight about. (A competent divorce litigator in Boston makes at least $1 million per year, according to a lawyer interviewed here; Florida is probably somewhat less lucrative due to the lower child support stakes.)

The legislature seems to be intent on shutting down the permanent alimony system and may yet succeed. Alimony is taxable whereas child support is tax-free. These two factors make out-of-wedlock children almost surely more profitable and lower risk than marriage+children. Lawyers we interviewed pointed out that their plaintiff clients were able to find higher-income partners for unmarried sex than to agree to a marriage. Thus child support revenue for a single child will be higher if the child wasn’t conceived as part of a marriage. Florida’s child support formula makes it more lucrative to have multiple children with multiple partners than multiple children with the same partner, e.g., if suing partners with a net annual income of $120,000 per year, three children with the same partner yield $637,260 over 19 years but $982,908 if there are three different co-parents (Florida gives a winner parent a cash incentive to discourage children from graduating high school on time as the cash continues to flow to age 19 only if the child has not yet graduated).

Foreigners can profit from Florida’s system most easily as explained in the “American Child Support Profits Without an American Child” section of “Child Support Litigation without a Marriage”:

The second method can be used by foreigners temporarily in the U.S., e.g., for seasonal resort employment. Businesses on Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard, for example, rely heavily on young Bulgarian, Serbian, Russian, and other Eastern European workers. If one of them were to have a one-night encounter with a hotel guest earning at least $250,000 per year, then return to Eastern Europe, she could be assured of at least $40,000 per year in child support under the Massachusetts guidelines. This is more than six times the average net salary of $528 per month in Serbia and more than eight times the average net salary of $400 per month in Bulgaria. We asked Jerry Nissenbaum, a Massachusetts divorce litigator, what practical steps would be required for this to work. He responded “She’ll go back to Bulgaria and stay a year or so to bond with the child and not let dad bond (she doesn’t want to get stuck here). Then she comes back with the baby, files a complaint, gets the $40,000 order. The Massachusetts Department of Revenue will collect it for her and send it to her US-based bank account that she can use with a debit card in Bulgaria, or wherever she is in the world.”

Due to Federal funding conditional on successfully suing residents, the Florida Department of Revenue will presumably be equally happy to assist any foreigner with a child support claim against a Florida native. (Note that a plaintiff shouldn’t wait more than two years after the child’s birth to notify the Department of Revenue and/or file a lawsuit through a private attorney. The Florida guidelines limit retroactive support to “24 months preceding the filing of the petition,” unlike in some states where a plaintiff can wait until a day before a child’s 18th birthday and successfully sue for 18 years of child support cash.

Florida readers: What do you think of your governor acting to preserve the status quo?

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Why does our government have more than two taxes?

A Tax Day question: Why does our government have more than two taxes?

Let’s assume that the government needs money. Even a country full of highly educated hard-working efficient people such as Singapore spends about 18 percent of GDP on government (source). But why not raise this money via only a couple of taxes, thus keeping administrative costs to a minimum?

For example, our government could have a value-added tax (consumption tax) similar to our current state sales taxes but at a higher rate and with European-style policies that make it tough for anyone to cheat. To get at wealth and recover the costs of protecting property, we could have a property tax similar to the current tax but with some of the money going to the federal government as well. If the government needs more money in any given year, just crank up the rates on these two taxes.

It would be a lot tougher for lobbyists to prosper in this environment because, with only two taxes any exceptions for government cronies would be more noticeable. Perhaps citizens would also be less happy. Right now the government raises money in lots of different ways so nobody sees one huge bill. Taxes on businesses are especially good for our mood because we never see the bill at all. We pay higher prices for stuff than we otherwise would have, but we aren’t sure why.

On the other hand, there are a lot of voters who express hostility toward the complexity of U.S. local, state, and federal taxation. You’d think at least these folks would support cutting back the number of taxes to just two or three, even if the rates on those taxes went up.

[Separately, does anyone know how many different taxes we do have in the U.S.?]

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Extra taxes on property owners who rent to vacationers… why not discounts?

Happy Tax Day!

While on vacation in Ft. Lauderdale, a city official in a brand-new vehicle showed up at our vacation rental to present the landlord with a demand for some extra money via a recently enacted “Vacation Rental Registration Program”. At first this seemed like a reasonable local government tax, but then it occurred to me that the owner was already paying property taxes. If the property tax is set to a rate that is adequate for funding local services, including schools, isn’t the owner of a vacation property actually overpaying already? People who come to visit for a week or two aren’t going to enroll their children in the local schools. Thus a city should be delighted that someone would turn a house that could be occupied by a family with school-age children into a vacation rental that won’t result in additional school enrollments.

Readers: What am I missing?

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Wisconsin child support plaintiff sets defendant’s truck on fire?

A reader sent me this video purportedly of a Wisconsin child support plaintiff setting her defendant’s truck on fire (the email introduced the video with “Since Tax Day is coming up, here’s what happens when a man doesn’t pay his pussy tax”).

Readers: What do you think about this video? Searching for related terms in Google News doesn’t result in any coverage from traditional newspapers. How could an event like this not be newsworthy?

[In case you’re wondering how much cash could have been at stake, check out this chapter on Wisconsin family law.]

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Some sobering stats for those who like to invest in commodities

A professional investor friend says that all investments can be expected to yield the same return. I have never understood the rationale for investing in commodities, e.g., gold, on the theory that they are scarce. So I would press him to say that a backyard full of oil barrels would be just as good as the S&P 500. And then that a pile of granite rocks would also be just as good. And what about a backyard full of dirt since people will pay for fill? …

“U.S. Mining Losses Last Year Wipe Out Profits From Past Eight Years” is a WSJ article that doesn’t prove me right, since of course actual performance will not equal expected. But it should be sobering for those who love scarce commodities on the theory that “they aren’t making any more X”:

The U.S. mining industry—a sector that includes oil drillers—lost more money last year than it made in the previous eight.

Mining corporations with assets of $50 million or more recorded a collective $227 billion after-tax loss last year, according to Commerce Department data released Monday. That loss essentially wipes out all the profits the industry had made since 2007.

See also “Peabody Energy Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection”:

Peabody Energy Corp., the largest U.S. coal company, became the latest to file for bankruptcy Wednesday, underscoring the fraying future of corporate coal mining in America.

The bankruptcy of the St. Louis-based company came after similar filings by Arch Coal Inc., Alpha Natural Resources, Inc., Patriot Coal Corp. and Walter Energy, Inc., all of whom have also recently sought chapter 11 protection.

Peabody’s bankruptcy sets the stage for a potentially bitter fight among creditors for its assets, which include massive open-pit complexes in Wyoming and Australia and underground mines in Illinois.

America may never again see a coal company as big as Peabody. Founded in 1883 by Francis Peabody with $100, a wagon and two mules, according to the company’s corporate history, Peabody grew into a juggernaut, producing coal for customers in 25 countries and employing 7,600 people.

But its decline has been precipitous in recent years. In 2011, Peabody’s value on the stock market briefly touched $20 billion. It is now worth $38 million.

Readers: Who has something nice to say about this kind of investment?

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Are markets so inefficient that global warming isn’t being priced properly?

During our two weeks in Ft. Lauderdale we learned that a beachfront house costs between $3 and $8 million. Most of these are approximately the same height above sea level as a crushproof cigarette pack. If the seas are rising up to swallow Florida, as the climate change doomsayers predict is imminent, why are these houses still worth so much? Here are some possible theories…

  • markets don’t believe that a serious sea level rise will happen for at least 50 years
  • Federal flood insurance keeps the market buoyant, so to speak (subsidized by taxpayers in the Midwest, of course!)
  • Florida beachfront house buyers are impulsive live-for-today types; anything that happens 10 or 15 years from now is irrelevant to them

Readers: How to explain the apparent paradox that (a) everyone intelligent supposedly believes that climate change will result in fairly imminent and fairly dramatic sea level rise, and (b) houses at sea level at crazy expensive?

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Falling out of love with the Samsung Galaxy S7

This week was time to return the Samsung Galaxy S7 to the Verizon store. It was fun on a Florida trip being able to use the phone in the pool, but back in the real world the party is over. (see initial review and then a post about battery life)

Trying to get out of Florida was challenging because the Uber app said that the device wasn’t supported. Back in Massachusetts I tried the Uber app again and it said that I had to reenter the credit card numbers, which I did and it still failed. The Uber app then said to contact support@uber.com, which resulted in them suggesting gender reassignment. “Hi Philip, Sorry to hear about the trouble accessing your account, Danielle. … Keep safe and enjoy your day. Jaysel”.

Making phone calls in my Boston suburb was impossible with the Samsung whereas the iPhone 6 Plus had managed to be fairly reliable despite the fanatical opposition of the Millionaires for Obama to cell phone towers. I turned on WiFi calling and the phone/network wasn’t smart enough to use WiFi in our one-bar house. While driving in Florida (superb LTE coverage everywhere), the S7 lost all data coverage for about five minutes. My companion’s iPhone 5S, also on Verizon, worked perfectly during this period.

The best thing about the phone is the camera but a photographer’s workflow from the point of exposure onward on is inferior to the iPhone’s. I couldn’t find an easy way to send a reduced-size image from Gmail on the Samsung, for example, so my data plan was being consumed to send ridiculous 5MB photo attachments to people who didn’t want anything that large. Dropbox’s photo upload feature seemed to create duplicate images on my PC, as did the Google Photos app (but of course the images that were duplicated were different between Dropbox and Google Photos).

The true deal-killers for me were the lack of battery life and the poor performance in areas with weak coverage (i.e., the United States!). I was using all of the same apps in all of the same ways as on the iPhone 6 Plus and battery life was roughly halved.

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