What’s Apple’s competitive edge going forward?

The Wall Street Journal has an article on Apple reaching a revenue plateau. It isn’t surprising that revenue is heading down, but the quote from management is disturbing:

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said he remains optimistic, noting that he sees future gains for iPad and continued growth from services such as Apple Music and other projects.

“We don’t live in 90-day quarters, and we don’t invest in 90-day quarters,” said Mr. Cook. “I’m so convinced that the things we are doing are right and the assets we have are enormous.”

Apple Music? Even if the company got a 100-percent market share in recorded music how could that move the needle for a company with roughly $233 billion in annual sales? If this is what the company’s management is relying on, investors should be terrified. (And Apple music is a crummy me-too product.)

What are Apple’s competitive edges going forward that could lead to substantial revenue and/or profit growth? The iPhone per se doesn’t seem like one of them. My iPhone 6 Plus became unstable in its 6th month of life, with hangs and crashes roughly comparable to what one might experience with Samsung’s version of Android on an older Note device. The Apple Health app is comically sloppily programmed and its user interface is inferior to what Samsung was offering with the Note 3 two years ago. People whom I know in professional video say that Adobe Premiere is at least as good as Final Cut Pro and that Apple lost a lot of loyalty with a major user interface change to Final Cut.

What about Apple’s supposed leadership in user experience? Plainly the Apple Health programmers didn’t get the memo, but surely the core iOS has a better/cleaner user interface than any Android or (gasp!) Windows phone? I might have thought so until I visited a neighbor. She is intelligent and well-educated, but not passionate about technology. She said that she had hardly gotten any phone calls for weeks. I discovered that her phone was in “Do Not Disturb” mode. She had entered this inadvertently by mistakenly swiping up from the bottom of the screen then touching the moon symbol (a nice icon but there is no explanation of what it means). No programmer at Apple had thought to have the phone display a confirmation dialog box after a few days in DnD mode. I decided to be a hero and reconfigure her phone so that this mode couldn’t be entered inadvertently. I would remove the moon icon from the quick swipe-up menu. Then I discovered that Apple was so confident in its broken user interface that, unlike with Android devices, there was no way to customize the choices.

Readers: What does Apple have that is way better than the competition? What should they be working on going forward? (they’ve got plenty of cash to do all of the R&D that they want, at least as long as they hire all of the programmers offshore so that they don’t have to bring the money into the U.S. and pay corporate taxes on it)

(My personal vote: Camera software. Sony and Samsung have slightly higher scoring cameras on DxOMark, but my experience with a Samsung Note 3 was that its practical capabilities were far behind the test scores. Maybe Sony is better. DxOMark says “Impressive autofocus in all conditions, the best tested to date” and “Very good white balance and color rendering in most situations” regarding the Sony Xperia Z5. Perhaps the Sony is actually the photographer’s best phone choice? (And the device is actually waterproof; rated IP68!))

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Could Henry Worsley have been saved by better solar cell technology?

Henry Worsley, a descendant of one of Shackleton’s crew members, died after very nearly walking across Antarctica (nytimes). He was 55 years old and walked 900 miles pulling a 300 lb. sled. I’m assuming that he had at least some kind of solar power array to keep his satphone going. I’m wondering if more efficient photovoltaics could have saved his life. Given sufficient quantities of solar power, for example, could Worsley have enjoyed hot coffee every few hours and thus had more energy for the walk? Perhaps an electric motor on the sled would have been considered cheating, but surely not heat for the sleeping bag and/or tent?

I’m inspired that he got as far as he did, but sad that he didn’t make it safely all the way.

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Hillary Clinton behaves as divorce litigators would predict

“’90s Scandals Threaten to Erode Hillary Clinton’s Strength With Women” is a nytimes article about how Hillary Clinton participated in attacking and discrediting the women with whom her husband was having sex (or trying to have sex with), rather than supporting her sisters, which presumably would have eventually required divorcing the unfaithful husband.

The litigators we interviewed for Real World Divorce wouldn’t be surprised by Hillary’s decision. Had she sued Bill Clinton under D.C. family law, she would have been entitled to child support and alimony of perhaps $200,000 per year based on his salary as President. Bill Clinton’s historical earnings hadn’t been that large due to his holding down government jobs. She might have been able to share in Bill Clinton’s spectacular post-Presidential payday via an alimony and child support modification lawsuit, but a new award based on the discarded spouse’s post-divorce higher income is subject to judicial discretion (see “Peter Orszag beats the child support rap” for how a similar case played out in the D.C. courts; also see “the lottery winner in Massachusetts alimony court”).

It was economically rational for Hillary to stay married to Bill and therefore she did. If this required denouncing other women, that wouldn’t surprise anyone in the world of divorce litigation.

Readers: Where would Hillary be today if she had sued Bill Clinton in, say, 1998?

Related:

  • “Why Women Still Can’t Have It All” (2012 Atlantic magazine article) from one of Hillary Clinton’s subordinates at the State Department: “My workweek started at 4:20 on Monday morning, when I got up to get the 5:30 train from Trenton to Washington. It ended late on Friday, with the train home. In between, the days were crammed with meetings, and when the meetings stopped, the writing work began—a never-ending stream of memos, reports, and comments on other people’s drafts. For two years, I never left the office early enough to go to any stores other than those open 24 hours…”
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Marvin Minsky, 1927-2016: the death of a genial skeptic

“Marvin,” as Professor Minsky was known to nearly everyone at MIT, died yesterday. I’m sad that he is gone, but happy to have spent time with him on and off since 1979.

Marvin questioned many of the assumptions around Academia. He would show up to deliver a formal talk with a stack of notes and pick from them more or less at random. I wish that I could say that the results were amazing due to his dazzling intellect, but unfortunately the lack of an organized outline made these talks less than satisfying. Marvin was at his best in small groups or working one-on-one with others at MIT. What I remember most about him was his genial skepticism. If two people were arguing, rather than take one side, Marvin could show that both were operating from an assumption about the world that perhaps wasn’t necessary or true. He was a bit of a modern-day Socrates.

Marvin co-created one of the most successful university laboratories ever, the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab (history). Though managed by others, at least for a couple of decades the style of the place was strongly influenced by Marvin. We could do anything we wanted, pretty much. We could build anything using parts from the stockroom. We could ask anyone for help at any time. Our $1000/month stipends didn’t afford a luxurious out-of-the-lab lifestyle (many trips to the “Twin Cities” strip mall McDonald’s; it took us years to realize that the “Twin Cities” were Cambridge and Somerville) but within the lab we had everything that we could have wanted. Marvin opened the lab physically and virtually to almost anyone with a sincere interest in computer nerdism. High school students came in on weekends to experiment with million-dollar mainframes, eventually becoming MIT undergraduates or founders of Boston-area software companies. As a 12-year-old I connected to the ARPAnet via a 300-baud modem in Bethesda, Maryland. I asked the administrators of the ITS mainframes at Marvin’s AI Lab if I could have an account to experiment with the Macsyma computer algebra system. Despite the fact that anyone with such an account could type a single command to crash the system, the “philg” account was created for me.

Marvin was not too interested in the dismal corners of academic computer science. He was the wrong person to talk to about operating systems, disk latency, or the relative merits of the latest programming languages and environments. Marvin was passionate about creating an artificial intelligence and was more than content to allow others, preferably in industry, to tackle the practical day-to-day computer science stuff. He expected IBM to develop System R and hoped that MIT would develop a computer that he could be friends with.

[Despite Marvin’s lack of interest in the quotidian aspects of coding, he ended up having a large indirect effect on the practical world of software. Richard Stallman wandered over to the AI Lab from Harvard and eventually founded the free software movement (not to be confused with “open source” unless you wanted a stack of AI Technical Reports thrown at your head).]

At age 62, instead of comfortably retiring in place at the lab that he’d created, Marvin jumped at the chance to be an early MIT Media Lab researcher.

Marvin was a loyal friend and family member. He would show up to a birthday party (sometimes my own!) even at the cost of a further slip to a deadline for one of his books. Marvin never used his success to try to climb the bureaucratic ladder within the university. Nor did he try to make money from his discoveries or his prominence. He supported his wife’s most questionable projects, e.g., the adoption of a fearful and periodically aggressive shelter dog (Prozac was tried; not sure if the dog read the literature regarding Prozac versus placebo).

He was a great research advisor and collaborator, as evidenced by the Turing Award of Manuel Blum, the impact of Logo (pushed mostly by Hal Abelson), the important and varied career of Gerry Sussman (Scheme, SICP, Digital Orrery), the invention of interactive computer-aided design by Ivan Sutherland, the definition of “AI” for at least a couple of decades by Patrick Winston, and the pioneering computer algebra work of Joel Moses.

Virtually everyone in American computer science has been strongly influenced by Marvin, either directly or through one of his students.

I will miss Marvin.

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Go big or go home? (choosing an employer)

A software engineer friend was wondering what to do about his career. He’s at a startup company that has been moderately successful (funds raise, product launched, first customers paying) but not successful enough to justify hiring a team. So he’s working by himself. I suggested working for Google or Facebook: “They’ve already got the users so whatever you build will be significant. They’ve got ready-made teams of competent people for you to work with.” I told him about a senior programmer friend who gets up every morning in the Boston suburbs, dons his biking gear, and rides down to Kendall Square to the Google office, works on some interesting problems with competent peers, then clocks out at roughly 5 pm to bike home. “Every month they direct deposit a massive paycheck into his bank account.” We agreed that it was hard to beat that programmer’s lifestyle.

Startups are in the news constantly. It feels as though you can’t spit in the street without hitting a 21-year-old college dropout who is negotiating to sell his second company. But does the news stream reflect the average? “Obama’s Legacy: Trump and Bernie” (WSJ) is a boring “Obama should be criticized for delivering to Americans the centrally planned economy that they said they wanted” article, but it happens to include some relevant data:

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of business establishments less than one year old rose steadily from 550,000 in 1997, peaked at about 650,000 in 2006, and then has gone straight down. The Kauffman Foundation’s 2015 entrepreneurship report puts startups in 2012 at just over 400,000.

The Brookings Institution in a 2014 report noted that since 2008 businesses closing annually have exceeded startups for the first time. Their yearly analysis dates to 1978.

For example, Kauffman’s report also notes that the rate of entrepreneurship among people age 20-34—who hire employees like themselves, new breadwinners—began dropping fast in 2011. The president said Tuesday that ObamaCare would help new-business formation. It is doing the opposite. Millennials, assumed to be the Obama base, have entered adulthood to endure a decade of slow growth.

Perhaps tech is an exception but it seems that overall Americans have gotten the message that it is best to be a W-2 employee of a larger enterprise. This makes sense when you think about the following:

  • bigger companies have more access to corporate welfare, e.g., tax breaks handed out by states in exchange for locating facilities in particular places
  • bigger companies pay a much lower tax rate because they can shift profits to divisions in countries other than the U.S., e.g., the U.K., Ireland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, or Singapore
  • bigger companies can grow as long as there is growth anywhere in the world because they sell products all over the world

The downside of a Google or Facebook is that one can get stuck building a tiny irrelevant piece of something big. This seems particularly bad for a young person trying to build up a resume of accomplishments.

Readers: If you’ve been in a big company versus a startup recently, what can you say about the pluses and minuses?

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Good bike rides starting from/near the big Orlando airport? And get together in Orlando?

I’m ashamed to admit this, but I am looking forward to going down to Orlando from Wednesday through Saturday of this week (1/27-1/30). I’ll be staying right next to the big airport there while a friend gets some simulator training.

Does anyone have good ideas for pleasant road bike rides that start near MCO? 20-30 miles would be ideal. I will probably have a rental car so in theory I could drive for a bit and then bike.

What else to do when there? I can’t muster the requisite noise/crowd tolerance for Disney. What about good places to see nature? Photographing birds with a long lens? See manatees?

What about driving to the Atlantic coast for a day? Are there good places to ride a bike around Cape Canaveral and Cocoa Beach or is the traffic too heavy on A1A?

Finally, what about a breakfast get-together on Thursday or Friday morning? Please email philg@mit.edu if interested.

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Equal Rights Amendment, Bristol Palin, and Aziz Ansari

“How to Bridge That Stubborn Pay Gap” attracted 294 comments from New York Times readers. The editors select 10 as “picks” and here’s the opening of one of them:

This is a no-brainer: FIRST make women equal within the Constitution, pass the Equal Rights Amendment.

The author of the comment presumably believes that, given such an amendment, men and women would be paid the same. Here’s the text of the Equal Rights Amendment from 1972:

Section 1. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Section 3. This amendment shall take effect two years after the date of ratification.

This replaces the 1923 version: “Men and women shall have equal rights throughout the United States and every place subject to its jurisdiction. Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.”

I wonder if this amendment, had it been fully ratified, would have lived up to the hopes expressed in the comment and the 62 other Times readers who gave it the thumbs up. Would the ERA have prohibited private employers from doing whatever it is that they are currently doing?

Aziz Ansari got a lot of Facebook shares with this image (text: If you believe that men and women have equal rights, if someone asks if you’re feminist, you have to say yes because that is how words work. You can’t be like, “Oh yeah, I’m a doctor that primarily does diseases of the skin.” Oh, so you’re a dermatologist? “Oh no, that’s way too aggressive of a word! No no not at all not at all.”)

What would happen if men and women actually did have equal rights under all of the laws? Bristol Palin found that out to her chagrin recently. She gave birth to a child in Alaska, the only state in the U.S. that grants fathers equal rights to mothers when it comes to custody and child support (some other states, e.g., Arizona, favor shared parenting but it is due to shared parenting studies showing that this is best for children, not because of a belief that running a court system where women win 90+ percent of the cases is unfair). She quickly found herself sued by the father, interested in a 50/50 parenting arrangement and monthly cash payments from Palin, whose income exceeds his. (Child support in Alaska is capped, however, so while a plaintiff might get 4-10X what could be obtained in Europe, there isn’t the possibility of unlimited payments as in California, Massachusetts, or Wisconsin.) The National Enquirer article on the subject:

Bristol Palin is facing an all-new disgrace as her formerly-heroic Marine fiancee files a custody claim on their out-of-wedlock baby — and even makes a grab for child support!

Now he’s filed legal documents seeking joint-custody of the 3-week-old, while also seeking child-support payments from Bristol!

The new mom’s rep, David Martin, sniffed: “My values are such that a real American hero doesn’t ask for child support.”

[Presumably the roughly 4 million Americans collecting support payments in excess of child-related costs would disagree with that last statement.]

According to the scholars whom we interviewed, Ansari is stuck in the 1970s when it comes to “feminism.” Here are excerpts from a section from the Rationale chapter of Real World Divorce:

Legislators and attorneys told us that women’s groups and people identifying themselves as “feminists” were proponents of laws favoring the award of sole custody of children to mothers and more profitable child support guidelines. Is that a recognizably feminist goal? For a woman to be at home with children living off a man’s income? Here’s how one attorney summarized 50 years of feminist progress: “In the 1960s a father might tell a daughter ‘Get pregnant with a rich guy and then marry him’ while in the 2010s a mother might tell a daughter ‘Get pregnant with a rich guy and then collect child support.'” Why is that superior from the perspective of feminism? A professor of English at Harvard said “Because the woman collecting child support is not subject to the power and control of the man.”

We interviewed Janice Fiamengo, a literature professor at the University of Ottawa and a scholar of modern feminism, about the apparent contradiction of feminists promoting stay-at-home motherhood. “It is a contradiction if you define feminism as being about equality and women’s autonomy,” she responded. “But feminism today can be instead about women having power and getting state support.”

Leigh Goodmark, a professor at the University of Maryland law school and former Co-Director of the Center on Applied Feminism at the University of Baltimore School of Law, is the author of A Troubled Marriage: Domestic Violence and the Legal System (2011, NYU Press). Professor Goodmark explains that there are three types of feminism: equality, dominance, and governance. The feminism that has been influential in shaping family law nationwide is dominance feminism:

The particular bent of domestic violence law, however, is attributable not to equality feminism, but to the prevailing feminist ideology of the 1980s and 1990s, when many of these laws were enacted: dominance feminism. Dominance feminists, led by law professor Catharine MacKinnon, contended that male domination of women in the sexual sphere was the primary vehicle for women’s continued subordination. MacKinnon argued that “our male-dominated society, aided by male-dominated laws, had constructed women as sexual objects for the use of men.”

Rejecting feminist legal theories that advocated for women’s equality with men (equality feminism) or highlighted women’s innate differences from men (cultural feminism), dominance feminism contended that the legal system’s central concern should be remedying women’s subjugation, a subjugation created and reinforced by women’s sexual subordination to men.

“I’m Not Impressed By Aziz Ansari’s Feminism” breaks down feminism into a “first wave” (which Ansari seems to have caught) and, implicitly, later waves during which it was recognized that “equal rights” is not necessarily the right thing to demand. Bristol Palin’s current troubles with Alaska’s version of the Equal Rights Amendment show some of the problems with that first wave of feminism.

How else could women lose from the passage of an ERA? Even if the Equal Rights Amendment applied only to federal and state government, those are responsible for a lot of jobs. Affirmative action programs that favor the hiring of women would have to be eliminated, at least at government employers.

What about college admissions? Could men sue under an ERA because there are more women admitted to college than men? This 2012 Forbes article says the following:

On a national scale, public universities had the most even division between male and female students, with a male-female ratio of 43.6–56.4. While that difference is substantial, it still is smaller than private not-for-profit institutions (42.5-57.5) or all private schools (40.7-59.3). The nearly 40-60 ratio of private schools was most surprising, though perhaps this is partly due to the fact that most all-female schools are private. Nevertheless, the female domination of higher education prevails across all types of schools. It should also be noted that the national male-female ratio for 18-24 year olds is actually 51-49, meaning there are more (traditionally) college-aged males than females.

What about in government-run K-12? The Rise of Women says that “Women now outperform men academically at all levels of school.” Is the government prepared to say that boys are inherently intellectually inferior to girls? If not, how could a state or local government, given an ERA, run a school system in which boys consistently do worse than girls?

What do readers think? How would our world be different today if the Equal Rights Amendment had passed? Would there be any effect on the gender pay gap of which the New York Times regularly complains?

Related:

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Are Facebook ads less vulnerable to click fraud?

“Bogus Web Traffic Continues to Plague the Ad Business” is a WSJ article saying that “The ANA said that in the 2015 study advertisers found between 3% to 37% of their ad impressions were created by bots compared to the prior study where the bot traffic ranged from 2% to 22%.” and “Companies could lose more than $7 billion globally this year to ad fraud, the ANA and White Ops estimate.”

I’m wondering if this is another trend that leads to dominance by Facebook. Due to the fact that Facebook users must be authenticated, are Facebook ads less vulnerable to click fraud?

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Hold Still by Sally Mann

Great photographers aren’t usually good at talking or writing, but Sally Mann seems to be an exception. Here are some excerpts from Hold Still: A Memoir with Photographs:

[On meeting her future mother-in-law, a social climber in New Canaan, Connecticut] I decided right there that she was a ring-tailed yard bitch. The feeling was clearly mutual.

Report card from Putney: “She feels that Math is and always will be irrelevant to her and I think its approaching it with a ‘just one more year’ attitude.” [Maybe useful if you were considering taking the advice of math-ignorant politicians to devote yourself to STEM in order to avoid career catastrophe.]

The New York Times did a story on Mann in 1992 and forwarded to her the letters from readers. When people had to get out pen, paper, envelopes, and stamps, the volume of reader comments was apparently much smaller. It seems that there were fewer than 100 letters. The readers confidently diagnosed Mann as having been a victim of childhood sexual abuse by her father, a medical doctor, but she had repressed this memory. The armchair Freudians diagnosed her as taking pictures of her own children, sometimes naked, because she “was unconsciously working out some kind of psychic pathology in [her] photographs.”

About a third of the book is directly related to life as one of the country’s leading art photographers. The other two thirds is interesting for its portrayal of 20th century American life. For example… Department of Family Wisdom: Mann’s grandmother to Mann’s mother, circa 1927: “Marry and divorce as often as you think you have to, but don’t be any man’s mistress.”

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Mann’s paternal great-grandfather made a fortune manufacturing cotton gins and then developing Dallas real estate. Mann describes the man’s interest in philanthropy as being unique for the time period, but this article suggests otherwise. (Note that there was no income tax or significant estate tax, so Americans kept a much larger share of what they earned.)

Mann’s father, a medical doctor, seems to have gotten her started in photography. Dad had a Leica for snapshots and a Linhof for serious portraiture. The father was also passionate about dogs, which caused some marital discord after Tara the Great Dane moved into bed and pushed Mom out. Mann’s father traveled through Europe in 1938 and, among his extensive written record of the trip, there is barely anything about the politics or military situation in Germany. With the perspective of history it is obvious to us that 1938 in Germany was a momentous time, but this wasn’t apparent to the traveler. He continued around the world on a total budget of about $1400 and his favorite spot was Angkor Wat.

“It’s Payback Time for Women” is a recent New York Times article on how women in general should be paid more than currently for their efforts as mothers (the Times neglects to mention that any American woman who wants to be paid for being a mom can do that through our child support system, which can yield a higher after-tax spending power than going to college and working in states such as California, Massachusetts, and New York). Mann’s book, however, reminds us that not all women devote themselves to their children. Mann’s father provided nearly all of the household income by working long hours as a country doctor (housecalls, 30-minute interviews with patients, surgery when necessary, etc.). Mann’s father was the nurturing parent as well, providing emotional support for the children and, eventually, the grandchildren. The hands-on parenting that the Times wants to see women get paid for was done by… woman being paid for the task: “Down here, you can’t throw a dead cat without hitting an older, well-off white person raised by a black woman..” Mann received “unconditional love” from a widow she called “Gee-Gee” who “worked for my family until her early nineties. At age one hundred, with her hands curled into gentle claws, she died on Christmas Day, 1994.” After giving birth to the Mann clan, what did the mother do? According to Sally, she seems to have invested her time and energy into a variety of what the daughter describes as “progressive” political causes.

The book is marred to some extent by the repeated use of the phrase “dear friend.” Readers may correct me but I associate this phrase with insincere people and name-droppers, e.g., “My dear friend Hillary Clinton.” Emily Dickinson did not say “My dear friends are my estate.” Helen Keller did not say “I would rather walk with a dear friend in the dark, than alone in the light.” Aristotle did not say “What is a dear friend? A single soul dwelling in two bodies.” Tennessee Williams didn’t say “Time doesn’t take away from dear friendship, nor does separation.” What if Cassius had said to Brutus “A dear friend should bear his dear friend’s infirmities,” in Julius Caesar?

Due to the generally feeble image presentation capabilities of the Amazon Kindle format, I recommend getting this book in hardcopy form, where it also serves as a good example of how to mix photos and text (an average of nearly one per page).

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Assembling a longer-term annuity from child support via frozen embryos

“Anti-Abortion Groups Join Battles Over Frozen Embryos” (nytimes, January 19, 2016) has an interesting financial planning angle that the newspaper didn’t explore.

A properly planned career of collecting child support pays better than going to college and working at the median college graduate wage (see Real World Divorce, e.g., the California, Massachusetts, Utah, or Wisconsin chapters). It can provide earnings over a long period of time, e.g., if a plaintiff has the first child at age 18 and the last child at age 40, in Massachusetts the cash will flow until age 63. However, with human lifespan increasing, a plaintiff might want to assemble a portfolio of cashflow-positive children that will pay dividends beyond age 63. Enter the New York Times to show how it can be done!

What if embryos are frozen when a plaintiff is age 30? They can be incubated either by the plaintiff (if female) or via a surrogate at any later date, e.g., when the plaintiff is 60 years old, thus providing a stream of tax-free cash through age 78, 81, or 83 depending on the state. What if the defendant parent has died in the intervening years? Many states allow for a plaintiff to collect child support from the estate of a dead parent.

An advantage of this approach is that, due to the spread in birth years, the amounts of the payments can be roughly double than if children from the same defendant had been born in the same year (e.g., see New York or Wisconsin where the formula is very simple; one child pays 17% of a defendant’s pre-tax income while three children yield only 29% of the defendant’s pre-tax income (remember that the money is tax-free to the defendant, though, so this corresponds to roughly half of the defendant’s after-tax income)). A disadvantage is that the future cashflow needs to be discounted. Given a sufficiently high discount rate it might make more sense to incubate the embryo to term today and invest the child support proceeds in a Vanguard index fund.

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