Small-sample Behavioral Economics

I inadvertently attended the 2015 AAGL Global Congress on Minimally Invasive Gynecology in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand. (I also attended the Latin Grammy awards and met Nicky Jam, along with some other folks who were younger and cooler than the gynecologists.)

Sitting at a casino restaurant next to four gynecologists, I learned that two of the four had been asked by patients “Is there a pill that I can take to ensure pregnancy after a one-night stand?” and “How can I get pregnant starting from oral sex or from a used condom on the side of the bed?” [Answers: Clomifene, but watch out for twins, and they refused to prescribe it; cervical cap, which was dispensed.]

The two gynecologists who had never been asked these questions were from Nevada (child support capped at $13,000/year for 18 years) and Texas (child support capped at about $20,000/year for 18 years).

The two gynecologists who had been asked to assist with pregnancies from casual and/or non-traditional sexual encounters were from California (potentially unlimited child support revenue by formula for 18 years) and Massachusetts (23-year revenue stream; first $40,000/year by formula plus 11 percent of defendant’s pre-tax income over $250,000/year),

 

Full post, including comments

American lives illuminated by a biography of Alexander von Humboldt

Andrea Wulf’s The Invention of Nature: Alexander von Humboldt’s New World contains a lot that I didn’t know about Americans. Thoreau turns out to have been a great illustration of David McCullough’s point about dealing with failure (previous posting):

For all his enjoyment of solitude, Thoreau did not live like a hermit in his cabin [at Walden Pond]. He often went to the village to have meals with his family at his parents’ house or with the Emersons.

During his two years at Walden Pond, Thoreau filled two thick notebooks, one with his experiences in the woods (the notes that would become the first version of Walden) and another containing a draft of A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers, a book about a boat trip he had taken with his much missed brother some years earlier. When he moved out of his cabin and returned to Concord, he tried and repeatedly failed to find a publisher for A Week. No one was interested in a manuscript that was part nature description, and part memoir. In the end, one publisher agreed to print and distribute it at Thoreau’s own expense. It was a resounding commercial failure. No one wanted to buy the book and many of the reviews were scathing, with one, for example, accusing Thoreau of copying Emerson badly

The enterprise left Thoreau several hundred dollars in debt and with many unsold copies of A Week. He now owned a library of 900 books, he quipped, ‘over seven hundred of which I wrote myself.’

Today Thoreau is one of the most widely read and beloved American writers – during his lifetime, though, his friends and family worried about his lack of ambition. Emerson called him the ‘only man of leisure’ in Concord and one who was ‘insignificant here in town’, while Thoreau’s aunt believed that her nephew should be doing something better ‘than walking off every now and then.

John Muir would have been imprisoned for draft dodging in our time, not wandering around the Sierra Nevada:

As Muir was falling in love with botany in Madison[, Wisconsin], the Civil War ripped the country apart, and in March 1863, almost exactly two years after the first shots had been fired at Fort Sumter, President Abraham Lincoln signed the nation’s first conscription law. Wisconsin alone had to raise 40,000 men, and most students in Madison were talking guns, war and cannons. Shocked by his fellow students’ willingness to ‘murder’, Muir had no intention of participating.

A year later, in March 1864, Muir left Madison and avoided conscription by crossing the border into Canada – his new ‘University of the Wilderness.’

Then, in spring 1866, when a fire destroyed the mill where Muir was working in Meaford on the shore of Lake Huron in Canada, his thoughts turned home. The Civil War had ended the previous summer after five long years of fighting, and Muir was ready to return.

Muir anticipated modern tree-huggers:

Muir lived and breathed nature. One early letter – a love letter to sequoias – was written in ink that Muir had made from their sap, and his scrawl still shines in the red of the sequoia’s sap today. The letterhead stated ‘Squirrelville, Sequoia Co, Nut time’ – and on he goes: ‘The King tree & me have sworn eternal love.

There were no strip malls in Florida back then, but Muir caught malaria on his way to Cuba (travel to which country was not restricted, of course). Regarding the unsuccessful attempt to block the Hetch Hetchy dam from being built within a national park, Muir noted that “Nothing dollarable is safe, however guarded.”

Full post, including comments

iPhone 6S Plus not worthwhile upgrade for photographers

DxOMark still hasn’t done an review of the iPhone 6S Plus, but dpreview.com now has one. Here’s the verdict: “If you are a current 6 Plus user and don’t need 4K video there is no obvious reason to upgrade as image quality improvements are fairly minor and most special features work in a very similar way on the predecessor.”

Speaking of the predecessor, below is a challenging scene that the iPhone 6 Plus handles easily via (automatic) HDR. The face is in focus (try that, Canon!). There is detail in the sky. The exposure of the subject inside a tube is correct with no Photoshopping.

2015-11-15 14.25.12 HDR

I guess we will have to wait for the iPhone 7 before feeding Apple another $900!

 

Full post, including comments

Did ad blockers and Facebook kill Yahoo?

Yahoo may be selling… Yahoo (nytimes). As a business, what is Yahoo? Mostly selling ads? If so, is it fair to say that the rise of ad blockers (cutting revenue in an obvious way) and Facebook (cutting Yahoo’s revenue by creating an infinite supply of page views for advertisers) have killed Yahoo?

It seems as though there is are a variety of interesting and lucrative things that could be built using Yahoo’s audience as a springboard, but if the only way to get revenue is by selling ads and ad revenue per page view is plummeting, what could Yahoo do?

Full post, including comments

Free speech on campus: Is the argument really about the purpose of college?

Students at various American colleges are asserting a right not to hear anything that upsets them. I’m wondering if the reason the “free speech” and “no hurtful speech” groups can’t agree is that they disagree about the purpose of college.

Consider this open letter from a bunch of old people who work at, or used to work at, Yale. They start off by saying essentially the following: yes, being liberal/progressive is the only proper way to think, but Erika Christakis is actually a proper liberal with safe ideas. The old folks continue “While the university stands for many values, none is more central than the value of free expression of ideas.” The old people conclude by pointing out that the targets of student anger have been working “toward social justice,” e.g., by “making house visits to underserved populations.” So students should attack conservatives instead of the liberal Nicholas and Erika Christakis? (The letter does raise the question of what would happen if someone cracked into the Christakis set-top box and discovered that the social justice crusaders were secretly watching Fox News. Would they then no longer have a right to express their point of view regarding Halloween costumes?)

Let’s focus on the unsupported proposition that “none is more central than the value of free expression of ideas.” What if the young people who are protesting don’t agree? Perhaps to them Yale is a high-priced vocational program. What they want is to get a degree and then a high-paying job. Why should they be subjected to upsetting points of view during this process of vocational training, any more than they would if they went to tractor-trailer driving school? And if the students are going to prepare for work, where exercising freedom of speech will typically cost them their jobs, doesn’t it make sense to set up an environment where ThoughtCrime is punished?

The old people assume, without evidence, that Yale is the Agora of Socrates. Suppose that the students see it instead as an alcohol-soaked stepping stone to the Agora of the Kapeloi? Is that enough to account for the current discord on campus?

Related:

 

Full post, including comments

Touring the Mediocrity Factory (meeting with principal of rich suburban public school)

Everyone knows that the U.S. spends more per student on public education than nearly any other country on the planet (see page 205 of this OECD analysis, for example) but that the measured learning outcomes are mediocre. But how exactly is this mediocrity produced? I went to a “forum with the principal” event in a rich white suburban school district to find out (as noted in The Smartest Kids in the World, while Americans love to blame non-white and/or low-income for our poor performance, even rich white public schools and private schools in the U.S. underperform public schools in the successful countries, such as Finland). This was in Massachusetts, which, as noted recently in the New York Times, has some of the nation’s more effective schools (along with New Jersey, Texas, and Florida). This town’s school system is ranked as one of the better ones in Massachusetts so its performance is “elite” by American standards if not by international ones.

Based on what people said at the forum, the core driver of mediocrity seems to be the dual function of the American school. A home-schooled child studies for three hours per day. A Russian child studies for about four hours, from just after breakfast until just before lunch (with 10-minute breaks, but no recess). Children are parked at an American school for 6-7 hours per day and thus necessarily much of the time is spent on stuff other than learning. This leads to the school becoming a place for “social/emotional development” during 2-3 hours per day. The “social/emotional” aspects were the foremost concerns of the parents at the forum. One mother described how the first 20 minutes out of a 25-minute parent/teacher conference were spent discussing a child’s social life during recess. This was not a complaint, just a response to the question of how such conferences were going. When asked what was on their mind, nearly every other parent led with “social/emotional.” It makes sense if you step back from the situation and ask “What is urgent for a parent?” Of course we would all like our children to be well-educated at age 25 (or 30?) when they are done with the master’s degree that is now our entry-level credential. But the immediate (and therefore urgent) goal is to see one’s child smiling. If a child comes home in tears because of something that happened at recess it would be a rare parent who would say “let’s talk about how what you learned writing this history essay is going to affect your performance in college.”

As this was a new principal and the forum was a place for open discussion, I asked if anyone had read The Smartest Kids in the World, which was a New York Times bestseller and recommended heavily by Amazon, The Economist, and various newspapers. Everyone in the room was either employed by a school or interested enough to take time to show up at this forum, but nobody had read the book. So I mentioned that the Russian system (not much better results than ours, but absurdly cheap to run by comparison) and the Finnish system had schools and teachers concentrate on the single mission of academics. Day care, sports, and social/emotional were handled by people other than teachers in venues other than school. Then I asked if there were state regulations that would prevent the town from setting up a Russian-style system in which teachers taught until lunch and then a separate set of employees took over for the lunch+afternoon social/emotional/daycare shift. That way parents could concentrate on academics when talking with teachers. The principal responded that “children aren’t built that way” (i.e., the American way of alternating academic and daycare activities for 6-7 hours is the only possible way to run a school).

Despite the epic length of the school day, the elementary school kids are assigned homework and one parent asked what was the point of additional drill pages that were similar to ones previously done in class. The principal responded only that there were various theories as to the value of homework, the implication being that nobody knew whether or not assigning homework improved academic outcomes.

The previous forum had concerned math instruction within this school system. There is a single set of standards for all students in any given grade (i.e., everyone in 4th grade gets more or less the same assignments). A person with a basic knowledge of probability or statistics would assume a Gaussian distribution of mathematics knowledge among children within a grade. If the assignments are aimed at the average student, the mathematically competent person would therefore expect three groups of parents showing up: parents of children at the lower end of the math competence distribution complaining “too hard”; parents of children in the middle saying “just right”; parents of children at the high end objecting “too easy”.

This was apparently not what happened, however. The principal said that there were essentially two groups of parents: (a) those who felt that the math assignments were appropriate for their children, (b) those who felt the math assignments were too easy. From the absence of the “too hard” group, the person with an intro probability background would infer either that (1) a non-representative sample of parents had turned out, or (2) math in this school system is targeted at roughly the 30th percentile child. The principal, however, threw up her hands, implying that there is no way to please everyone and that any differences in opinion regarding the math challenge were likely due to personality differences among the parents.

I asked “Suppose that a child comes to the first day of 4th grade and knows everything that would be expected of a graduate of 4th grade. Will that child be given 5th grade problems to work on?” The answer was “no” and a denial of the possibility that a child at the beginning of 4th grade could have a true understanding of all of 4th grade math, even if tests showed an ability to do all of the required calculations. “We try to keep all of the children at the same level,” was the principal’s summary.

The principal described having recently completed an every-five-years certification process for kindergarten. She profusely thanked her bureaucratic predecessor for having teed up the paperwork in binders and said it was stressful for the teachers to be observed by the accreditation folks (unclear why this should be; after three years in this district it is effectively impossible for a teacher to be fired for poor performance (previous posting)). The principal said that it was possible to get certified in older grades but the only reason to do that would be to use the accreditation organization’s report identifying deficiencies to seek more taxpayer funding for a school (i.e., the purpose of certification was not primarily to increase performance).

The room was full of smart well-meaning people with, by global standards, near-infinite cash to be spent. Everyone was working effectively toward achieving the same kinds of results that better American schools were able to achieve in the 1950s or 1970s. Nobody seemed concerned about the possibility that other countries have gone above and beyond that standard.

Related:

[looking at a book jacket] Is this guy on the left Bill Gates?
Yes.
A [9-year-old] girl in school said today “When I grow up, I will marry Bill Gates, then quickly divorce him, and take half of his money! Mua-ha-ha-ha-ha!”

Full post, including comments

Humboldt Biography: Climate Change Alarmism Not New

I have finished reading Andrea Wulf’s The Invention of Nature: Alexander von Humboldt’s New World. If you’re more familiar with Humboldt’s work than his life, there is a lot of material that will be new to you. Here are some examples:

despite their privileged upbringing, Alexander and his older brother, Wilhelm, had an unhappy childhood. Their beloved father died suddenly when Alexander was nine and their mother never showed her sons much affection. Where their father had been charming and friendly, their mother was formal, cold and emotionally distant. Instead of maternal warmth, she provided the best education then available in Prussia, arranging for the two boys to be privately tutored by a string of Enlightenment thinkers who instilled in them a love of truth, liberty and knowledge.

It was particularly difficult for Alexander who was taught the same lessons as his precocious brother, despite being two years younger. The result was that he believed himself to be less talented. When Wilhelm excelled in Latin and Greek, Alexander felt incompetent and slow. He struggled so much, Alexander later told a friend, that his tutors ‘were doubtful whether even ordinary powers of intelligence would ever be developed in him’.

During the summers their mother often stayed behind in Tegel, leaving the two young brothers with their tutors at the family’s house in Berlin

Humboldt was friends with Goethe and apparently social conventions were not unbreakable, at least for society’s headline figures:

In 1788, six years before Humboldt’s first visit, Goethe had shocked Weimar society one more time when he had taken the uneducated Christiane Vulpius as his lover. Christiane, who worked as a seamstress in Weimar, gave birth to their son August less than two years later. Ignoring convention and malicious gossip, Christiane and August lived with Goethe.

Wulf credits Humboldt with the idea of studying the environment as a whole and with concern for the effect of human actions on climate:

When nature is perceived as a web, its vulnerability also becomes obvious. Everything hangs together. If one thread is pulled, the whole tapestry may unravel. After he saw the devastating environmental effects of colonial plantations at Lake Valencia in Venezuela in 1800, Humboldt became the first scientist to talk about harmful human-induced climate change. Deforestation there had made the land barren, water levels of the lake were falling and with the disappearance of brushwood torrential rains had washed away the soils on the surrounding mountain slopes. Humboldt was the first to explain the forest’s ability to enrich the atmosphere with moisture and its cooling effect, as well as its importance for water retention and protection against soil erosion. He warned that humans were meddling with the climate and that this could have an unforeseeable impact on ‘future generations

It was here, at Lake Valencia, that Humboldt developed his idea of human-induced climate change.

“When forests are destroyed, as they are everywhere in America by the European planters, with an imprudent precipitation, the springs are entirely dried up, or become less abundant. The beds of the rivers, remaining dry during a part of the year, are converted into torrents, whenever great rains fall on the heights. The sward and moss disappearing with the brush-wood from the sides of the mountains, the waters falling in rain are no longer impeded in their course: and instead of slowly augmenting the level of the rivers by progressive filtrations, they furrow during heavy showers the sides of the hills, bear down the loosened soil, and form those sudden inundations, that devastate the country”

As a former mining inspector, Humboldt had a unique insight into the environmental and economic consequences of the exploitation of nature’s riches. He questioned Mexico’s dependence on cash crops and mining, for example, because it bound the country to fluctuating international market prices. ‘The only capital,’ he said, that ‘increases with time, consists in the produce of agriculture [note that the Industrial Revolution was raging all around Humboldt, thus illustrating how much easier it is to understand a period from the perspective of a historian!]

Humboldt was to some extent the Edward Tufte of his day:

They also discussed Humboldt’s invention of isotherms, the lines that we see on weather maps today and which connect different geographical points around the globe that are experiencing the same temperatures.

Until Humboldt’s isotherms, meteorological data had been collected in long tables of temperatures – endless lists of different geographical places and their climatic conditions which gave precise temperatures but were difficult to compare. Humboldt’s graphic visualization of the same data was as innovative as it was simple. Instead of confusing tables, one look at his isotherm map revealed a new world of patterns that hugged the earth in wavy belts. Humboldt believed that this was the foundation of what he called ‘vergleichende Klimatologie’ – comparative climatology. He was right, for today’s scientists still use them to understand and depict climate change and global warming. Isotherms enabled Humboldt, and those who followed, to look at patterns globally. Lyell utilized the concept to investigate geological changes in relation to climatic changes.

About half of the book is devoted to the effect of Humboldt’s work on other scientists and writers. It turned out that a lot of these folks believed the collapse of Planet Earth’s environment was imminent:

Man had long forgotten that the earth was not given to him for ‘consumption’. The produce of the earth was squandered, [George Perkins] Marsh argued, with wild cattle killed for their hides, ostriches for their feathers, elephants for their tusks and whales for their oil. Humans were responsible for the extinction of animals and plants, Marsh wrote in Man and Nature, while the unrestrained use of water was just another example of ruthless greed.2 Irrigation diminished great rivers, he said, and turned soils saline and infertile. Marsh’s vision of the future was bleak. If nothing changed, he believed, the planet would be reduced to a condition of ‘shattered surface, of climatic excess … perhaps even extinction of the [human] species’. He saw the American landscape magnified through what he had observed during his travels – from the overgrazed hills along the Bosporus near Constantinople to the barren mountain slopes in Greece. Great rivers, untamed woods and fertile meadows had disappeared. Europe’s land had been farmed into ‘a desolation almost as complete as that of the moon’. The Roman Empire had fallen, Marsh concluded, because the Romans had destroyed their forests and thereby the very soil that fed them. The Old World had to be the New World’s cautionary tale. At a time when the 1862 Homestead Act3 gave those who headed out to the American West 160 acres of land each for not much more than a filing fee, millions of acres of public lands were placed in private hands, waiting to be ‘improved’ by axe and plough. ‘Let us be wise,’ Marsh urged, and learn from the mistakes of ‘our older brethren!’ The consequences of man’s action were unforeseeable. ‘We can never know how wide a circle of disturbance we produce in the harmonies of nature when we throw the smallest pebble in the ocean of organic life,’ Marsh wrote. What he did know was that the moment ‘homo sapiens Europae’ had arrived in America, the damage had migrated from east to west. Others had come to similar conclusions. In the United States, James Madison had been the first to take up some of Humboldt’s ideas. Madison had met Humboldt in 1804, in Washington, DC, and later read many of his books. He had applied Humboldt’s observations from South America to the United States. In a widely circulated speech to the Agricultural Society in Albemarle, Virginia, in May 1818, a year after his retirement from the presidency, Madison had repeated Humboldt’s warnings about deforestation and highlighted the catastrophic effects of large-scale tobacco cultivation on Virginia’s once fertile soil. This speech carried the nucleus of American environmentalism. Nature, Madison had said, was not subservient to the use of man. Madison had called upon his fellow citizens to protect the environment but his warnings had been largely ignored.

Humboldt was the great apostle,’ Marsh had declared when he began Man and Nature. Throughout the book he referred to Humboldt but expanded his ideas. Where Humboldt’s warnings had been dispersed across his books – little nuggets of insight here and there but often lost in the broader context – Marsh now wove it all into one forceful argument. Page after page, Marsh talked about the evils of deforestation. He explained how forests protected the soil and natural springs. Once the forest was gone, the soil lay bare against winds, sun and rain. The earth would no longer be a sponge but a dust heap. As the soil was washed off, all goodness disappeared and ‘thus the earth is rendered no longer fit for the habitation of man’, Marsh concluded. It made for gloomy reading. The damage caused by just two or three generations was as disastrous, he said, as the eruption of a volcano or an earthquake. ‘We are,’ he warned prophetically, ‘breaking up the floor and wainscoting and doors and window frames of our dwelling.’ Marsh was telling Americans that they had to act now, before it was too late. ‘Prompt measures’ had to be taken because ‘the most serious fears are entertained’. Forests needed to be set aside and replanted. Some should be preserved as places of recreation, inspiration and habitat for flora and fauna – as an ‘inalienable property’ for all citizens. Other areas needed to be replanted and managed for a sustainable use of timber. ‘We have now felled forest enough,’ Marsh wrote.

So obsessed was [John] Muir that he even highlighted the pages that referred to Humboldt in his Darwin and Thoreau books. One topic that particularly fascinated Muir – as it had George Perkins Marsh – was Humboldt’s comments on deforestation and the ecological function of forests. As he observed the world around him, Muir realized that something had to be done. The country was changing. Every year Americans claimed an additional 15 million acres for fields. With the advent of steam-powered reapers, grain binder machines and combine harvesters that cut, threshed and cleaned grains mechanically, agriculture had become industrialized. The world seemed to spin faster and faster.

Oddly enough, it was the digging up of fossil fuels that interrupted the trend of complete planetary deforestation. Certainly these folks couldn’t have imagined the current levels of human population, energy consumption, and forestation. On the other hand, maybe they got the broad idea right but were wrong about the timing and final mechanism!

 

Full post, including comments

It took two hours for ambulances to reach victims in Paris

“The Long Night” is a disturbing New Yorker article on the Paris attacks. Here’s one of the worst parts:

A few medical workers came to the scene almost immediately. Le Petit Cambodge and Le Carillon, which also came under fire, are down the street from l’Hôpital Saint-Louis, one of Paris’s largest hospitals. But because of the number and severity of the attacks, and a confusion about whether the killers might still be at large, it took nearly two hours for ambulances to begin evacuating people. [emphasis added]

Full post, including comments