Harvard geniuses on Obamacare

At a recent seminar at Harvard University, a professor described Obamacare as “not working because insurance rates going up.” Her facts are confirmed by a letter that I recently received regarding my basic ($2000 deductible) Obamacare plan: the rate in 2016 will be 18 percent higher than in 2015. But the person sitting next to me laughed at her interpretation. “I don’t think the companies that lobbied for Obamacare would characterize higher rates as ‘not working’ for them.”

[Meanwhile, the saga of my October strep throat test continues. Because of the regulations that make it impractical for the small group of doctors to do quick strep tests, my sample was sent to a local hospital. They decided to charge me $88 for the test. My insurance company had a right to purchase this service for $14, apparently, but decided not to pay any of the $14 due to the policy’s $2000 deductible. Thus the hospital generated a hardcopy bill (now buried somewhere under a stack of important catalogs and therefore unlikely to be paid any time soon) and mailed it to me. The doctor tried to charge hundreds of dollars but was beaten down to about $50 (see previous posting).]

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If it is illegal in Scandinavia, should we do it all the time in the U.S.? (spaying/neutering dogs)

At least in some Scandinavian countries it is illegal to neuter or spay a healthy canine companion (Psychology Today).

There are a lot of differences between the U.S. and Scandinavia (the cash value of children is a lot lower over there, for starters!), but could this be an area where they might have something to teach us? Here’s one reference looking at the overall effects of sterilization.

What do readers think? Can it be the case that doing something so unnatural is actually beneficial to an animal’s health? And if it is so great for dogs, why don’t we routinely do it to ourselves? We could bank our genetic material at a young age and then have our reproductive organs removed. If we wanted to have children we could then simply hire surrogates in countries that hadn’t realized the important health benefits of sterilization.

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Cambridge, Massachusetts housing market makes the WSJ

“Some Families Earn Six Figures and Still Need Help With the Rent” is a December 1 Wall Street Journal article on Americans’ increasing aversion to using markets to allocate resources:

Cambridge, Mass., a hub for prestigious universities and biotechnology companies, is setting aside apartments to help an unexpected group of people find lower rents: families with incomes topping $100,000.

The city recently held a lottery for 15 units with below-market rents, in a new building a few subway stops from downtown Boston. A family of four with an income well into the six-figure range—a maximum of $118,200—could qualify for some of the apartments.

In Cambridge, home to Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, median rents have soared about 36% since late 2010 to $2,750 a month, according to Zillow, a real-estate information company. That’s higher than the median rents across the five boroughs of New York City, which run about $2,295, though not as steep as the $4,128 median rents in Manhattan.

“People who have been able to be here in the past without assistance are now facing challenges,” said Chris Cotter, Cambridge’s housing director, raising concerns “about a hollowing out of that middle.”

I.e., the government will decide who gets to live in Cambridge.

Related:

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Tim Cook’s Apple Computer: Helping me track my cervical mucus quality

After consuming three spatchcocked turkeys (Tuesday: experimental 89 cent/lb. bird from Market Basket in Ikea-brand oven (complete failure at temperature regulation); Wednesday: experimental 89 cent/lb. bird from Market Basket on grill; Thursday: $4/lb. artisanally produced Vermont turkey on grill (taste: identical to 89 cent/lb. turkey)), I decided that it was time to get serious about my health. What better way than to use the Health app from the world’s most profitable tech company?

Step 1: Tell Apple Health that I am male:

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Actually that isn’t possible from the screen one gets to by clicking on “Sex”. Need to back up and notice the upper-right “Edit” option:

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Step 2: See what my options are for tracking age-related decay:

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Step 3: In case not enough folks show up here to claim asylum/refugee status, perhaps we will be told to have more kids (and the childless will pay us to do it!). Let’s see what Apple can do for us, now that the software knows that the phone owner is of the “Male” sex:

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Step 4; It is the mucus season here in Boston, so let’s see what’s underneath “Cervical Mucus Quality”:

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Apple will help me “gain a better understanding of when [I am] ovulating.” Now I know why the phone cost $900. Here are a couple more helpful screens for the typical “Male”:

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What else can a male iPhone owner do with the Health app while waiting for his next ovulation? Generate a height-by-hour or height-by-day graph:

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Is the new Zuckerberg fake charity an estate tax avoidance scheme?

Mark Zuckerberg previously demonstrated an awareness of California family law by waiting until just after Facebook went public to get married. I’m wondering if his new non-charity charity shows a sophisticated approach to estate tax avoidance.

The letter to our daughter works pretty well as comedy, e.g., “Medicine has only been a real science…” (emphasis added). It also works pretty well as a dictionary example of “optimism”, with Zuckerberg imagining that a $1 billion annual budget is going to move the needle (NIH spent $31 billion in 2010, according to Wikipedia, and the drug companies keep telling us that they are spending some of their Irish dough on research). Apparently he and his wife think that the folks behind “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” can’t waste another $1 billion/year.

The letter is a significant addition to the literature of comparative American victimhood: “Can we truly empower everyone — women, children, underrepresented minorities, immigrants and the unconnected?” (we were talking about this line at the airport and it evoked the question “So which is worse? Having a pussy or not being able to download porn at home?”)

I’m wondering if these small delights are distractions from the main point: working around the estate tax. The non-charity charity is apparently organized as an LLC. Let’s suppose that Baby Max owns shares in this LLC. If she acquires them today, before any Facebook stock or proceeds from selling Facebook stock are transferred in, she hasn’t received anything of value and has no tax liability. The LLC can invest its assets however it wants to, e.g., it could buy shares in an Ireland-based pharma company or fund a startup medical device firm in Singapore or China. If those investments prove more productive than Zuckerberg’s adventure in the Newark public school system, Grown-up Max will own a stake in something worth tens of billions of dollars.

What do readers think? Is this all about doing good or more about avoiding the world’s fourth-highest estate tax rates (actually we are higher than #4 if you add in estate taxes imposed by states)? Can it truly be this simple to say goodbye to $18 billion in federal estate taxes (plus potentially additional state estate taxes, depending on where the happy parents choose to live out their golden years)? (The links below suggest that a “family LLC” can substantially reduce but not entirely eliminate estate tax.)

Related:

  • “Using an LLC for Estate Planning”: “In a family LLC, the parents maintain management of the LLC, with children or grandchildren holding shares in the LLC’s assets, yet not having management or voting rights. … After you have established your family LLC according to your state’s legal process, you can begin transferring assets. … Here’s where the tax benefits really come into play – if you are the acting manager of the LLC, and your children are non-managing members, then the value of units transferred to them can be discounted quite steeply, often up to 40% of their market value. This discount is based on the fact that without management rights, LLC units become less marketable.”
  • “Limited Liability Company – Cutting Edge Estate Planning”
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Small-sample Behavioral Economics

I inadvertently attended the 2015 AAGL Global Congress on Minimally Invasive Gynecology in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand. (I also attended the Latin Grammy awards and met Nicky Jam, along with some other folks who were younger and cooler than the gynecologists.)

Sitting at a casino restaurant next to four gynecologists, I learned that two of the four had been asked by patients “Is there a pill that I can take to ensure pregnancy after a one-night stand?” and “How can I get pregnant starting from oral sex or from a used condom on the side of the bed?” [Answers: Clomifene, but watch out for twins, and they refused to prescribe it; cervical cap, which was dispensed.]

The two gynecologists who had never been asked these questions were from Nevada (child support capped at $13,000/year for 18 years) and Texas (child support capped at about $20,000/year for 18 years).

The two gynecologists who had been asked to assist with pregnancies from casual and/or non-traditional sexual encounters were from California (potentially unlimited child support revenue by formula for 18 years) and Massachusetts (23-year revenue stream; first $40,000/year by formula plus 11 percent of defendant’s pre-tax income over $250,000/year),

 

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American lives illuminated by a biography of Alexander von Humboldt

Andrea Wulf’s The Invention of Nature: Alexander von Humboldt’s New World contains a lot that I didn’t know about Americans. Thoreau turns out to have been a great illustration of David McCullough’s point about dealing with failure (previous posting):

For all his enjoyment of solitude, Thoreau did not live like a hermit in his cabin [at Walden Pond]. He often went to the village to have meals with his family at his parents’ house or with the Emersons.

During his two years at Walden Pond, Thoreau filled two thick notebooks, one with his experiences in the woods (the notes that would become the first version of Walden) and another containing a draft of A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers, a book about a boat trip he had taken with his much missed brother some years earlier. When he moved out of his cabin and returned to Concord, he tried and repeatedly failed to find a publisher for A Week. No one was interested in a manuscript that was part nature description, and part memoir. In the end, one publisher agreed to print and distribute it at Thoreau’s own expense. It was a resounding commercial failure. No one wanted to buy the book and many of the reviews were scathing, with one, for example, accusing Thoreau of copying Emerson badly

The enterprise left Thoreau several hundred dollars in debt and with many unsold copies of A Week. He now owned a library of 900 books, he quipped, ‘over seven hundred of which I wrote myself.’

Today Thoreau is one of the most widely read and beloved American writers – during his lifetime, though, his friends and family worried about his lack of ambition. Emerson called him the ‘only man of leisure’ in Concord and one who was ‘insignificant here in town’, while Thoreau’s aunt believed that her nephew should be doing something better ‘than walking off every now and then.

John Muir would have been imprisoned for draft dodging in our time, not wandering around the Sierra Nevada:

As Muir was falling in love with botany in Madison[, Wisconsin], the Civil War ripped the country apart, and in March 1863, almost exactly two years after the first shots had been fired at Fort Sumter, President Abraham Lincoln signed the nation’s first conscription law. Wisconsin alone had to raise 40,000 men, and most students in Madison were talking guns, war and cannons. Shocked by his fellow students’ willingness to ‘murder’, Muir had no intention of participating.

A year later, in March 1864, Muir left Madison and avoided conscription by crossing the border into Canada – his new ‘University of the Wilderness.’

Then, in spring 1866, when a fire destroyed the mill where Muir was working in Meaford on the shore of Lake Huron in Canada, his thoughts turned home. The Civil War had ended the previous summer after five long years of fighting, and Muir was ready to return.

Muir anticipated modern tree-huggers:

Muir lived and breathed nature. One early letter – a love letter to sequoias – was written in ink that Muir had made from their sap, and his scrawl still shines in the red of the sequoia’s sap today. The letterhead stated ‘Squirrelville, Sequoia Co, Nut time’ – and on he goes: ‘The King tree & me have sworn eternal love.

There were no strip malls in Florida back then, but Muir caught malaria on his way to Cuba (travel to which country was not restricted, of course). Regarding the unsuccessful attempt to block the Hetch Hetchy dam from being built within a national park, Muir noted that “Nothing dollarable is safe, however guarded.”

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iPhone 6S Plus not worthwhile upgrade for photographers

DxOMark still hasn’t done an review of the iPhone 6S Plus, but dpreview.com now has one. Here’s the verdict: “If you are a current 6 Plus user and don’t need 4K video there is no obvious reason to upgrade as image quality improvements are fairly minor and most special features work in a very similar way on the predecessor.”

Speaking of the predecessor, below is a challenging scene that the iPhone 6 Plus handles easily via (automatic) HDR. The face is in focus (try that, Canon!). There is detail in the sky. The exposure of the subject inside a tube is correct with no Photoshopping.

2015-11-15 14.25.12 HDR

I guess we will have to wait for the iPhone 7 before feeding Apple another $900!

 

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Did ad blockers and Facebook kill Yahoo?

Yahoo may be selling… Yahoo (nytimes). As a business, what is Yahoo? Mostly selling ads? If so, is it fair to say that the rise of ad blockers (cutting revenue in an obvious way) and Facebook (cutting Yahoo’s revenue by creating an infinite supply of page views for advertisers) have killed Yahoo?

It seems as though there is are a variety of interesting and lucrative things that could be built using Yahoo’s audience as a springboard, but if the only way to get revenue is by selling ads and ad revenue per page view is plummeting, what could Yahoo do?

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