This is my last morning in Berkeley, California. Support for the Islamic Republic of Iran is almost universal here. Nearly everyone shares the New York Times perspective that Trump’s attack on the noble legitimate leaders of Iran was reckless and exposes the U.S. to risks almost as bad as climate change. Certainly there was no imminent threat from some guys chanting “Death to America” and working on nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles. At dinner last night I asked a local, “Have you checked the stock market? If we’re in serious trouble, the market should be down.” She replied that she hadn’t checked, but was sure that there had been a market crash.
The Google shows that the market is about where it was a week ago.
How about oil?
Anyone who loaded up on oil on Friday is up 10 percent, but with standard leverage of 10:1, the lucky (or well-informed) trader has doubled his/her/zir/their money.
Loosely related, a favorite tweet regarding the fighting in and around Iran:
What else are Bay Area lifelong Democrats excited about? One friend wasn’t interested in the Iran war because he’s working to stop the construction of roughly 180 units of affordable housing that would be 2 miles from his house. (I’m also against this, of course, but likely for different reasons. A limited supply of taxpayer-subsidized housing results in a violation of the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection Clause. 180 people will enjoy low rents for brand new units. Perhaps 5,000 nearby people with exactly the same income will be forced to pay high market rents for crummy older apartments. In what world can this be considered “equal” treatment by the government?)
Another friend was passionate about not straying too far from the 4th Street restaurant where we’d dined. She believed that we would become victims of crime if we walked away from the brightly lit main blocks. I pointed out that it wasn’t a great advertisement for 70 years of lavishly funded progressive government if Berkeley, in fact, had dangerous neighborhoods. (My local friend says that she often sees broken glass in parking spaces, evidence of prior break-ins.)
Separately, check out the “Living Wage” bump of 6 percent over the menu prices for this kosher meal.
That 6% charge is illegal under California’s anti drip pricing law unless they mentioned it prominently somewhere. Should have asked them to take it off the bill.
You may be able to afford it but some middle income family being squeezed already will be scammed further if these practices are allowed to continue.
I don’t get mad, I just don’t go back.
I’m against scams, but this is the most minor sort.
What’s up with the word “particular”? Every story on NPR and everywhere else has to have the guest say “particular” at least once, but not right, like “PARticular”. Goofy AF. The accent is on the second symbol, look it up in the dictionary, maybe we ought to just adopt Spanish, which shows you the damn inflection.
Symbol, syllable, whatever.
We grabbed some Chinese recently, and there was some surcharge. Trouble was, the receipt was in Chinese, the only thing in English was “No Refund”. Kung Pao chicken with uncooked frickin peanuts.
https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/2028840911623348663
The Israelis just struck the meeting of the Iranian Supreme Council where officials were gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader, a senior Israeli official told Fox News.
“Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader.”
@phil did you check the stock market today
S&P 500 is down 1.3% right now. That’s consistent with expected daily volatility.
Checked again just now. Down 0.85% since trading began.
New feature on Phil’s blog: real time stock market updates. I like how they say on NPR, “the Dow is down today on news of Trump’s latest mischief.”
And… today it is up 0.78%. So ordinary volatility turned into dramatic news stories yesterday (down because of war!!!!) and today (up because of war!!!!).
Stock market rallied when WW2, Iraq and Afganistan war began (according to AI). It dropped when Civil War began.
Wars in far away places are supposed to be good for economy.
AL: this makes sense. If there is conflict in Europe or the Persian Gulf then it makes more sense to invest in the U.S. Same reason Ayatollah Mamdani taking over the NYC Caliphate is good for Florida! (And we probably should also cheer for Europe’s self-destruction via migration.)
As 1 of the few who isn’t fully invested, bought a few dipped shares for the 1st time in a year. The broad market is down 10% from a year ago while the AI heavy indexes are sideways. The middle east has been in constant war for so long, it doesn’t seem to be getting attention anymore.
Lion, my friend. Not sure which markets you are referencing, but the S&P 500 is +18.2% and the Nasdaq is 23.7% (both including dividends) over the past 12 months through mid-day today.
Phil:
Do you think I’d like Berkeley? I’m fiscally conservative, socially conservative, and politically conservative. I’m allergic to shellfish, pork is unclean even with BBQ sauce, plus I’m not allowed either per Leviticus. I don’t have PhilG money, but I do a’ight. I could afford the cost of living tax on my food tab. Do I get a 6% refund on my income for cost of living? I’ve been there a time or two, I had fun. Has it held up? I could get with a demmy-crat if she was hot enough. Maybe a 5BR/4BA house nearish the coast? Thanks.
Hmm, a little 5BR/3BA, built in ’24 (1924), bungalow near Poets Corner. 1500 sq ft living space, 3600 sq ft lot. 2 of the bedrooms are in an ADU (shack in the back of the lot). $1M. $6000K/mo (post)mortgage. Some posh poets living in that ‘hood. Fairly close to the water, but also an interstate.
“close to the water” isn’t worth much in California unless you enjoy wearing a wetsuit or, maybe, boating with a heavy jacket. Typical water temp in San Francisco Bay is 50-55 degrees.
In this neighborhood, the interstate was seaward from the beach. Grab a bucket, a shovel, SPF-2000, and watch the Teslas go by in the sunset. “Big Sur” the sequel, picturesque. I hear you about the water, my relatives had a yacht in the SF Bay when I was a boy. I still loved it.