Book review: You Should Have Known

A positive magazine review induced me to declare that You Should Have Known would be my one mystery novel for the year. The protagonist is a marriage therapist in Manhattan who writes a book about how women should have been able to predict, by carefully listening to the man they were were dating, exactly how that man would turn out to be an inadequate husband. The Manhattan men in the book do turn out not to have been prizes. Either they aren’t supportive enough emotionally (therapist’s remedy: divorce them) or they are having affairs. The ones who were secretly gay and are having affairs with other men are fairly harmless. When the men are having affairs with women, however, children are often the result and that leads to drama.

The first half of the book is interesting for its depiction of people finding out that they don’t know the folks around them as well as they thought (hint: the therapist finds out that her husband had a secret or two). The latter portion is seriously marred by a woman whose problems are solved by … finding a man. This is a sensitive non-threatening man who seems to be in touch with his feminine side, mind you, but there is no explanation of why this guy is trustworthy where all of the others turned out to be secretly gay/cheating/whatever.

Another interesting angle in the book is the lack of any security in a modern marriage (at least when one of the partners is a man). In New York, in the scenarios covered by the author, a woman who is married to a man has only a weak claim on his income, for example. If he has been exploring the town and quietly getting other women pregnant, it is the other women who have first bite at the guy’s income (example: by statute, Child Support Plaintiff #1 will get 17% of the man’s pre-tax income; Plaintiff #2 will get 17% of the remaining 83%; Plaintiff 3 will get 17% of 0.83 squared; after federal and state taxes, then, that leaves basically nothing for the wife and any children with that wife (also nothing for any fourth plaintiff)).

Finally there is the angle of therapy and therapists. Are they helpful because they wise? Are they helpful because attending psychotherapy sessions forces clients to focus and reflect? Or are therapists simply not helpful for most people?

The book could be better-written and better-crafted but it can be thought-provoking and it held my attention on a commercial airline flight.

What I’m reading now:The Great Texas Wind Rush

[Some excerpts, added by reader demand!

Inside the courtyard [of the fancy Manhattan private school], on the privileged side of the velvet rope, Grace saw that there were very few nannies in evidence. The concerned mothers of Rearden seemed to have decided, en masse, that some moments in a child’s life, like Max’s first school murder or Chloe’s first media circus, were just too sensitive to leave to a surrogate. So the mothers themselves had dropped everything and were here for their children, waiting for the kids to be released by Robert Conover’s grief counselors.

[the protagonist’s theme for her book] You knew he was in debt: You’re the one who paid off his Visa bill! You knew that when he went out at night he came back plastered. You knew he thought you weren’t up to his level intellectually, because he went to Yale and you went to U Mass. And if you didn’t know, you should have known, because it could not have been clearer, even back then at the very start.

[a friend reviews history with a woman who made an ill-advised marriage decision] I asked you to tell me what it was you loved about him, and then I asked you to tell me, for every one of those things, how you knew they were true. And you said, more or less, because they just were. And I asked you why you thought he was so estranged from his family. Why he seemed to have no other friends. I asked you if you were worried about how quickly he’d kind of become the most important person in your life. I asked you if the reason he seemed so perfect for you was that you had made it really clear to him what perfect for you meant, and he gave you back exactly what you wanted,

]

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Real Estate Bubble in Cambridge

A friend decided that he did not need his three-bedroom condominium in Cambridge anymore. Here’s an email from him:

Went on MLS this week. Today was the first public open house. Got two written offers. Accepted one for 1.325MM with no mortgage contingency.

The government assures us that inflation is non-existent, but if you would like to live in the Boston area without being stuck in traffic for an hour every morning, it will cost you about 20 percent more this year compared to last year. Brookline, as the only town that is both close to the center and has a school system with reasonable results, is getting particularly packed with newcomers.

What if you are willing to rely on the highways? The same friend just bought an 11,000 (!) square foot place in a suburb that has one of the Boston area’s top 10 school systems. He will be luxuriating on 10 acres of land and swimming in the pool. The “guest house” is nearly 4000 square feet. Cost of this Neverland-style ranch? $1.7 million. (Plus the Al Gore-sized electricity bills!)

[Separately, this does lead to the question of why realtors are making 5 percent on nearly every transaction in Cambridge. Unless grossly overpriced, places are sold within a few days. If buyers and sellers could determine a fair price from an appraiser at a cost of $500 or so, why are they paying $60,000+ to realtors to assist them? (The actual legal conveyance from seller to buyer will be done at an additional cost by lawyers, of course.)]

 

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Brave New Virtual World

A friend has a lightly used Magento-based ecommerce site that delivers pages more slowly than he would like. He reported that there were only about 100,000 page views per day, i.e., an average of about one per second. I said “Are you sure that you have enough RAM to keep the database in memory?” This was not an issue that his team of developers had considered. After some digging I found out that he was paying for two servers, each with 32 GB of RAM. On these two physical machines he was running three virtual machines, one for the MySQL database management system, one for the Web server, and one for a staging server. These VMs were allocated 16 GB of RAM for each production VM and 4 GB for the staging server. In other words, he was paying for 64 GB of physical RAM but the Gods of virtualization had set things up so that his production site could not possibly use more than 32 GB of RAM. The database VM ran on a physical machine by itself, leaving 16 GB of RAM entirely idle except for whatever the hypervisor was using.

Requests for the site and server documentation were answered with “What’s documentation?” (I pointed to “Software Design Review” for examples, but still not a single document was found for a site in which at least several developer-years have been invested.)

Does virtualization really make sense for people who aren’t going to do basic design work or write down simple documents that say (1) how much data there is, (2) where the data will be stored, (3) how much memory will be required at each point where data are stored? This particular site would almost surely have run better if the people who set up MySQL had never heard of VMware.

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How many times do we have to pay for the same Internet service? (net neutrality)

It seems that the Federales have decided not to regulate Internet service providers with regard to “net neutrality” and carrying, e.g., Netflix streams to your house (nytimes). So now these unregulated monopolies will be able to charge us $50-100 per month for service and then charge us again for the same Internet service (by charging Netflix, et al., who will then turn back around and raise our subscription rates). Maybe they should save everyone a lot of trouble and just allow Comcast, Time-Warner, and Verizon to collect a 5% payroll tax on wages in exchange for … giving us whatever Internet speeds and cable channels they think would be appropriate.

Carlos Slim is presumably laughing at us right now…

Related: Thoughts on the Comcast/Time-Warner merger

 

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City of Cambridge charges citizens 754 percent interest…

… and citizens apparently don’t object.

The City of Cambridge received my $111 car excise tax payment, due March 18, about 12 days late, either because I mailed the check late or it was delayed in processing (I’m not quite sure).

Today in the mail I get a “warrant” where a private collection agency hired by the city wants $27.52 as compensation for this late payment. That’s a 754-percent interest rate. I spoke to an official in the tax department at city hall and she said “we’re required by state law to charge that.”

Credit card issuers tried stuff like this and they ended up getting tangled up in regulations that restricted their abilities. Why aren’t their similar efforts to limit how much local governments can charge when they don’t get their $100 on the date expected?

[Separately, clearing up a situation like this is a lot harder with the government than with banks. Bank employees are typically at work mid-day/mid-week. Whereas I only had about a 25 percent success rate in reaching the government employees that I attempted to contact to find out where and how to pay this.]

And you might ask how badly does the city need the $5.44 that they might net after paying the collection agency (assuming that they do in fact get 100% of the debt)? Cambridge gave its outgoing city manager a $5 million retirement package (story). The current manager, Richard Rossi, was earning $330,000 per year back in 2013 (Boston Globe), plus pension commitments whose ultimate cost cannot be established. So the answer is… pretty badly!

[Update, May 5, 2014: I did a little more research by talking to city officials, including Susan Marcone in the Tax Collector’s office. It turns out that what the city really wanted to collect was 44 cents in interest. But by state law they can’t simply add this 44 cents to the next property tax bill for my apartment or car. They have to charge some sort of penalty, with a minimum of $5, and they have to use a state-approved collection agency (“Deputy Collector”) to assist them. The deputy collector sends out a few letters via an automated system and can collect up to about $100 in fees, but when taxpayers actually pay or have questions they have to deal directly with city employees. Marcone explained that the deputy collectors are people who had a family or personal connection to the Democratic Party here in Massachusetts at least at one time and that nobody new can get into this business, which she characterized as basically 100% profit.]

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College administrators: Why are there so many rich white and Asian people buying our $300,000 product?

One of the perks of being an expert witness in software patent lawsuits is that I get to eat where law firm partners eat. At O Ya, for example, I enjoyed the $285/person “grand omakase” menu (would have been another $100+ for the wine pairing, I think). At L’Espalier it was only about $200 per person, including wine. At no time did the restaurateurs come out, scan the dining room, and say “I can’t understand why it is mostly rich white and Asian people who eat here.”

Yet give a person a PhD in Higher Education Administration and he or she can be reliably counted on to wonder “Why don’t we have more racial diversity here on our gold-plated campus?” Following the Supreme Court’s decision in Schuette v. BAMN, upholding Michigan’s ban on sorting applicants to public colleges by race, university administrators are scratching their heads once again, unable to figure out why a $300,000 undergraduate degree is appealing primarily to white and Asian Americans.

I’m wondering if it would make sense for a college that was interested in having a more diverse student population simply to cut prices so that a degree cost less than, say, a lightly used Rolls-Royce. There is a lot more racial diversity in a restaurant that charges $20 for a meal than in a restaurant that charges $200. Why wouldn’t we expect to find the same in higher education?

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Hugo Chavez: Great politician; poor administrator

I have finished Rory Carroll’s Comandante: Hugo Chávez’s Venezuela. The book has a flawed structure, jumping back and forth across the 14-year period during which Chavez served as Venezuela’s elected president. There is also some redundancy that a good editor could have eliminated. However, the details, gathered by an Irish journalist who was the Guardian’s correspondent in Venezuela for about six years, make it a worthwhile effort.

Chavez seems to have been perhaps the most able politician of our times. According to Carroll, he managed to (1) rewrite history so that previous leaders seemed terrible by comparison, (2) take credit for anything that was going well, (3) duck responsibility for anything that was going badly, (4) continue to get elected in reasonably fair elections. Here are some samples relating to Chavez’s political skill:

Every government leader uses the media to justify and persuade, project and burnish, but none like Chávez. He was on television almost every day for hours at a time, invariably live, with no script or teleprompter, mulling, musing, deciding, ordering. … On days off you could leave your apartment, take the metro across town, pay utility bills, meet a friend for coffee, buy groceries, pick up laundry, come home, and find him still talking.

Chávez and his scholars were even bolder in rearranging the twentieth century. Traditionally, Venezuelans were taught that the uprising against Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958 ended the reign of dictators (so rushed was his flight to exile he left $2 million in a suitcase on the runway) and ushered in multiparty democracy. Chávez needed to reverse this sequence of virtue; otherwise how could he be the nation’s savior? Thus he half rehabilitated a U.S.-backed brute who murdered and jailed thousands, repeatedly praising his public works, his discipline, his patriotism. “I think General Pérez Jiménez was the best president Venezuela had in a long time,” he declared. “He was much better than Rómulo Betancourt [an elected president], much better than all of those others. They hated him because he was a soldier.” The democracy that followed the dictator was cast as the true villain: an electoral charade to dupe the people while oligarchs looted the country. Chávez’s family history was reordered to fit the new official truth. His father had been a proud member of COPEI, one of the “putrid” ruling parties, and despite his modest teacher’s salary all six of his children went on to college education and decent careers. The state provided subsidized housing (Chávez lived in one with his grandmother) and free, rickety education and health care, making Venezuela South America’s richest country until populism and corruption rotted the system in the 1980s. All this became heresy. The comandante, the nation was told a thousand times, was born in extreme poverty, a mud hut, and grew up in a venal, vicious system. “It punished the poor. Spat on the poor.” Thus his 1992 coup against Carlos Andrés Pérez was not a military conspiracy but the cry of an oppressed people. School textbooks were amended so the coup became “a rebellion that changed the destiny of the republic.”

The Liberator’s sacred work would be completed with socialist and communal values replacing capitalist individualism. The comandante called it the Great National Moral and Illuminating Journey. “Education, morals, and enlightenment in all spheres, everywhere, at all times.” He had spoken of this upon taking power, and by 2007 he had formalized it into an official campaign, inaugurating moral and enlightenment training brigades and creating a presidential council to guide schools and universities toward the new consciousness. The campaign did improve lives and elevate learning through literacy programs, which reached rheumy-eyed grandmothers in the slums, and expanded education, which let poor students stay in school and move on to free tuition at Bolivarian universities. The comandante, a talented didact, urged followers to read history, philosophy, and poetry, brandishing his latest favorite tome as an example. … Housewives and taxi drivers found themselves debating colonial history, social consciousness, and the global economy in communal councils and evening classes. Teenagers who normally would have dropped out enrolled in colleges to study architecture, engineering, and literature. A new state-run film studio, Villa del Cine, contributed by producing social documentaries and costume dramas about Venezuelan history. State television talk shows discussed gender equality, the rights of indigenous people, and the role of trade unions. All this unfolded, noted the comandante’s supporters, while the West hiked education fees and wallowed in shallow materialism.

What mattered, as the [2012] election neared, was having the means to confect a boom. Chávez ordered big pay raises for state workers—he was most generous with the army—and a blitz of new payments to pensioners, mothers, children, and students. For the first time the money supply exceeded $100 billion. To tamp down inflation, which was the hemisphere’s highest, the government fixed the prices of fifteen thousand goods, everything from coffee to toothpaste, based upon “scientific analysis” of what constituted fair prices. Soldiers and civilians in red T-shirts patrolled warehouses and stores to ensure that businesses complied, even if it drove them into bankruptcy. At the same time, ports worked overtime offloading containers from around the world to keep shelves stocked. It was like shaking a bottle of champagne and holding down the cork. Inflation and devaluation waited down the line, but in the short term the strategy worked. People had money in their pockets. And many, for the first time in their lives, had hopes of a decent roof over their heads. Venezuelans expected their government to supply cheap housing, but the comandante had built less than his predecessors. Three million people—almost a tenth of the population—lacked adequate accommodation. Thus was hatched the Great Housing Mission, a scheme to build two million houses within five years. “I will not rest in the quest to solve this drama inherited from the curse of capitalism,” said the comandante. It was impossible to build so many houses so fast, not least because nationalized cement and steel factories were sputtering and private contractors feared building anything that could be expropriated. So the government paid firms from Belarus, Russia, China, and Iran inflated prices to throw up apartment blocks all over the country. They also painted slums—those visible from the motorways—bright red, yellow, and blue, Venezuela’s national colors. By mid-2012, the comandante claimed to have reached 96 percent of the housing target for that period. Every few days he or a minister appeared on television to hand keys to a jubilant citizen. The 96 percent number was fanciful, but many homes had indeed been built, or at least redecorated, and it was enough to give hope to those on the waiting list. The list was the key. The government bombarded the population with text messages urging it to register for a home. Millions flocked to mobile registration centers where they received receipts with a name, the date, a registration number, and a stamp. A well-off person cannot understand what it means to possess such a slip of paper, cannot appreciate the solemnity with which a poor person memorizes it, makes copies, and guards it as something precious, a potential passport to comfort and dignity. A vote for Chávez would keep it valid. The list did not just give hope—it gave the government a formidable database come election day.

The rate of muggings, kidnappings, and murders exploded, spreading fear like shrapnel. The state lost the ability to keep citizens safe, to protect them from each other. It was baffling. The maximum leader who liked to micromanage everything lost control of society’s most fundamental requirement, security, wringing his hands while criminals shot, stabbed, and strangled with impunity. It was not supposed to be like this. Poverty was falling and new social missions were bringing services to neglected barrios to ameliorate, as the government put it, decades of “savage capitalism.” Chávez’s opponents were also stumped. They called him a dictator, but real dictators—Trujillo, Pérez Jiménez, Fidel, Kim Jong Il—kept streets safe for ordinary people. The great journey shuddered to a halt because towns and cities were quarantined by fear. … The mayhem undermined official rhetoric about moral renewal and the poor being repositories of virtue and authentic national spirit. The government tried blaming the violence on U.S.-backed Colombian mercenaries out to destabilize the revolution, then on capitalism’s legacy of individualism. It deployed the national guard to bolster police, but the violence swirled around the bewildered soldiers, just as it did the police, and they returned to barracks. … Normally, all this would devastate a president’s support, especially if he was left-wing and could be painted as “soft on crime.” Chávez, to his credit, did not lunge for the death penalty and violent crackdowns, perennially popular but ineffective remedies in Latin America and the Caribbean. And still he managed to escape political damage. It was astonishing. His ratings held up while voters were held up, tied up, cut up, broken into, held down, gunned down, and buried. Chávez achieved this feat by doing something against his nature: he shut up. On crime, which polls said concerned voters more than any other issue, his lips were sealed. Caracas could endure a particularly grisly weekend, more than sixty dead, convoys of funeral corteges, and he had nothing to say. Thugs could abduct ranchers in Táchira, shoot police in Zulia, and rape in Amazonas without presidential comment. Grieving mothers with banners and whistles could block motorways in Valencia demanding justice for slain children, and from Miraflores silence. The comandante simply refused to own the problem. In muteness he sought and found refuge.

If Chávez had been a true dictator, the final act would have been predictable: a slide further into denial until the fantasy realm unraveled and enraged subjects booted the bewildered, pathetic figure into oblivion. His enemies scripted the imagined epilogue with various endings—Chávez boarding a plane to exile in Cuba, Chávez in handcuffs, Chávez forlorn and forgotten at the family ranch in Barinas. Each version involved disgrace and comeuppance. But here his enemies themselves succumbed to fantasy. However much they shouted “Tyrant!” and willed Chávez to act accordingly, he remained a stubborn, indefatigable hybrid: an elected autocrat. His rule stopped well short of dictatorship. Repression was mostly light and selective, involving threats, fines, and jail terms. Opponents organized freely and, with the help of a shrill (albeit shrinking) private media, fought elections. That Chávez hijacked state institutions and resources did not change the fact that people could vote against him.

According to Carroll, Chavez promised the same things as leaders in other countries:

  • To a country that already had a free public health care system for the poor he promised additional health care services/schemes
  • To government workers and people whose skills were not in demand he promised that they would be enriched through taxes on the most successful private sector workers (and that the new higher taxes would not discourage those private sector workers from continuing to work as hard as they formerly had)
  • To most voters he promised that they could enjoy a better standard of living without either working more diligently or learning new skills (i.e., the government would either raise wages or reduce prices).
  • That he would protect citizens from foreign invasion/influence via an expensive military.
  • That he would reduce income inequality.

Assisted by a big rise in oil prices, Chavez delivered on some of these promises. For example, he brought in 20,000+ doctors from Cuba and expanded health care delivery. But his efforts were stymied due primarily to two factors: (1) demographics, (2) incompetent administration.

Venezuela’s wealth is derived primarily from natural resources, such as oil and farmland. Carroll points out “When Hugo Chávez was born in 1954, Venezuela’s population was five million. By 1999 it was an estimated twenty-one million, with 80 percent crammed into crowded towns and hillside slums.” (And by 2012 it had risen to 30 million.) In other words, a fixed amount of natural wealth divided by 30 million did not go as far as when divided

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Boston Marathon 2014

I took a special (to me) four-year-old to see her first Boston Marathon in Coolidge Corner, Brookline today. The security around the race was very impressive. An EPA ASPECT Cessna Caravan with a tricked-out exhaust system was operated all week from Hanscom Field to look for chemical and radioactive contamination. Coast Guard and U.S. Army Blackhawks flew back and forth overhead in formations of up to five helicopters (at about $25,000 per flight hour per helicopter, according to TIME Magazine). A friend asked “Did you feel safer?” My response: “Given that the Tsarnaev brothers were armed with two pressure cookers and one pistol, the security for this marathon has the same rational basis as a person who is attacked with a kitchen knife and expects the next attack to come from a nuclear-powered submarine.”

What if the Tsarnaevs had some cousins who had wanted to attack this marathon in the same way that the 2013 event was spoiled? The authorities absolutely forbade backpacks, potentially filled with explosives, from being carried near the finish line. But there was no such prohibition on bags and backpacks elsewhere on the route. Greta and I watched from Coolidge Corner, amidst hundreds of other spectators and passed by clumps of as many as 50 runners. At our feet? A large backpack.

[Note: I believe that the backpack belonged to a young woman who was hoping to cross the route to get to her job at Trader Joe’s. But she had been waiting there for 30 minutes and there was nobody to stop her from walking away and leaving the backpack.]

Favorite T-shirt: “Keep Calm and Marath On” (each word on its own line)

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Interior noise measurements from a 2000 Pilatus PC-12

These measurements were made in Pilatus PC-12 s/n 353, a Series 9 airplane with 10,700 hours. Note that these show that the plane is at least 2 dB quieter than an almost-new PC-12 NG (previous posting).

Measurements were made with a 10-year-old Radio Shack digital sound level meter, model 33-2055, set to “slow” and “A-weighting”. Measurements were made with the meter’s microphone near the ear level of a person seated in the PC-12. All speeds are indicated airspeed (i.e., true airspeed and ground speed would be higher).

 

Phase Pilot Row 1 Row 2 Row 3
idle 79 75 73 70
taxi 74 72 70
takeoff 82 82
climb 84 82
6500′; 180 knots 88 82 80 79
7000′; 215 knots 88 87-88 85 84
10,000′; 208 knots 88 87 85 84
13,000′; 203 knots 87 86 85 83-84
15,000′; 204 knots 88 87 85 83
FL280; 170 knots 86 83 82 81
FL280; 128 knots 85 78 77 75-78
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