Why are toothbrushes and LEGO bricks so expensive?

As a recent college graduate I found that stores open 24 hours per day were an unmixed blessing. I could write code until 2:00 am, stop by a store on my way home, and pick up a pint of Haagen-Daz coffee ice cream for immediate consumption. Now that my life is more intertwined with family it turns out that CVS being open all night simply means that the window for potential required errands has been expanded. Visiting D.C. this weekend I had the opportunity to make a late-night visit to CVS to purchase a toothbrush for one of my traveling companions; she had neglected to pack hers in Boston. As I walked back through a pouring rain I reflected “How could this [non-electric] toothbrush have cost $6.29? It contains the same amount of plastic as a toy that comes free with a Happy Meal.” Later, I poked around on the Web and discovered that hotels can buy those toothbrushes (admittedly crummy) that they give away to guests for less than 10 cents. A Colgate-branded toothbrush is about 45 cents (quantity 144).

So Question 1 for tonight is how is it possible in our competitive economy for a toothbrush to cost $6.29?

Question 2 is why there aren’t high quality generic LEGO bricks available. The LEGO patents have expired (and in fact perhaps should not have been very broad (source)). Given how popular LEGO is with kids, and the number of kids in the U.S., and the supposedly ruthlessly competitive nature of our economy, why aren’t there huge boxes of LEGO-compatible bricks available for slightly more than it costs to mold and package them?

Our economy is efficient enough that people buy generic versions of heart medicine. Why hasn’t a similar market developed for generic LEGO? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lego_clone lists a bunch of clones, but none seem to be popular or cheap enough that you could start building living room furniture out of the bricks.)

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Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine movie

Folks:

I went to see Blue Jasmine, the latest Woody Allen movie, the other night. One friend fell asleep. The other said “The more time that passes since I saw it the less I like it.”

None of the women in the movie seem to have close female friends. The main character spends all of her energy spending money on luxury brands or trying to find a (second) rich guy to live off. The male characters are pretty shallow and usually sleazy (cheating on wives) as well though at least some of them have buddies. None of the guys would be an argument against Vladimir Putin’s recent op-ed pointing out that Americans in general are not exceptionally bright or wise. The research for the movie seems to have been weak. A Sunday afternoon party in San Francisco has everyone wearing jackets and ties (maybe some Bay Area folks who travel in higher social circles can comment on that, but even the wealthier folks out there don’t seem to dress up on weekends during the daytime).

Arguably an interesting part of the movie would be the descent into madness of the main character, the wife of a Wall Street swindler, but we see only before (uber-materialist out shopping) and after (uber-materialist broke and crazy).

Who wants to defend this movie, which has received very favorable reviews, as a work of genius?

[p.s. My favorite Woody Allen movie is the 1989 Crimes and Misdemeanors]

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Cambridge City Council elections

Young people have been roaming the City of Cambridge recently, in preparation for an upcoming election for members of the City Council. This page says that the job involves showing up for meetings on Monday evenings at 5:30 pm for about nine months every year. The Council has no power regarding anything involving the public schools, i.e., the most expensive and least functional part of the city. Most actual decisions in Cambridge are made by a city manager and his staff and/or by a school committee and school system bureaucrats (sample). Why the intensive campaigning? “The job pays $75,000 per year,” one candidate explained (a rounding error compared to the outgoing city manager’s $5 million retirement package (source)).

My vote is for Logan Leslie, a veteran of our Iraq and Afghanistan adventures, who is young enough that he might question the status quo. His description of Central Square is plainspoken compared to the usual fluff that we get from politicians:

“Central Square isn’t safe or clean. Its large community of vagrants openly drinking, urinating, and taking drugs is an embarrassment. It’s a hotspot of crime. Many women who work in Mid-Cambridge or Cambridgeport are terrified to walk home from the T station at night. And it all goes down right across from our City Hall, steps from Harvard and Kendall Squares.”

(Personally I don’t feel afraid of crime in Central Square, but walking through there does lead to interesting conversations with a 4-year-old, e.g., “Daddy: Why is that man sleeping on the sidewalk?” Walking through with a Samoyed on a leash leads to all kinds of conversations and interactions with the more colorful denizens. It is kind of interesting how much of the grit that I remember from my arrival here at MIT in 1979 persists even in Central Square’s Starbucks era.)

The most plain-spoken candidate of all seems to be James Williamson, whose 2011 profile notes that “The current council get $70,000 a year each and often have other paid activities, too. In addition, each are allowed paid ‘research assistants.’ Yet they often still don’t seem to have a clue about obvious things that are going on in our community, nor do they embrace some of the obvious and simple solutions available for our more urgent problems. They’re way better at getting themselves re-elected with contributions from big corporate real estate interests. … Healy and his deputy have been in charge of all too much in Cambridge for far too long. Thirty-five years, to be exact. (That’s actually longer than Mubarak!) …”

It is not obvious why it should be hard to run the city. Harvard and MIT bring in floods of money while generating virtually no demand for city services (e.g., not too many Harvard students are arrested for crimes (and Harvard has its own police force), sign up for free health care at the Cambridge City Hospital, or ask for a free apartment from the City’s housing office). While most of the Boston area succumbs to traffic gridlock, Cambridge enjoys four Red Line and one Green Line T stations. The only thing that the city tries to do that is arguably challenging is run a high quality public school system and, of course, it is failing to meet that challenge (Boston Magazine ranks Cambridge as #88/147 in quality among Massachusetts districts and… #1 in spending (though the $26,305 per-student figure is understated because it does not include capital expenses, e.g., for renovating the school buildings)).

Related: http://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2013/05/23/cambridge-public-schools-perspective-from-a-new-teacher/

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Who wants a Dell XPS 420 desktop tower with the same amount of RAM as a mobile phone?

I am trying to get rid of a recently wiped Dell XPS 420 tower PC (truly huge, with vast amounts of interior space and cooling; state of the art in 2007). I was thinking that it wasn’t a bad machine, actually, with four CPU cores and 3 GB of RAM. Then someone emailed me an article about the launch of the new Samsung Galaxy Note 3 phone, which has…. 3 GB of RAM (and 8 CPU cores, but who is counting?).

[Separately, if you want to feel better about your Canon EOS 1D C body, which at $12,000 is one of the cheaper 4K video cameras out there, note that this new Samsung phone also can record 4K video.]

So… any gamers/system builders/Linux fans out there who want this Dell XPS 420 with a phone-sized RAM?

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Value of each Verizon wireless subscriber

Verizon is trying to buy 45 percent of Verizon Wireless from Vodafone (Reuters) for $130 billion. This values the wireless portion of Verizon at about $288 billion. There are approximately 100 million Verizon Wireless subscribers. Therefore, each one of us is worth nearly $3000 in expected future profits (discounted to present value).

Should Verizon just give us the option of mailing them a check for $3000 and then they would charge us a more reasonable monthly rate? (And yes I do recognize that some of the $288 billion in enterprise value could reflect the possibility that VZ will sign up new subscribers going forward, which makes us existing subscribers worth a bit less.)

[Separately, I’m ready for a Galaxy Note III. I want to be able to read Kindle books on my phone. Who else is excited about the Note III?]

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Child support litigation in Israel

An Israeli reader who saw my posting on divorce and child support laws in Denmark sent me an article from Israel.

The facts of the case were the following:

  • a divorced father earned 13,000 shekels (approximately $3600) per month and lived in a rental apartment
  • a divorced mother earned 18,000 shekels (approximately $5000) per month and owned a house
  • “the children spend more than half of their time with the father,” said the judge

Israeli law has a built-in gender bias, with divorced fathers who lose custody responsible for 100 percent of the cost of their children and 75 percent of the cost where the kids’ time is divided between parents. A divorced mother with a job, however, may have to pay a share of “extras” such as vacations for children.

With these facts, the mother sought to have approximately 100% of the father’s after-tax salary transferred to her as child support (“she had sued for over 13,000 shekels a month”). The judge concluded that the mother was entitled to just 2% of what she was seeking (300 shekels per month; roughly $83) and that it wasn’t worth ordering that this small amount of money be paid from one former spouse to the other.

Israeli readers: How does it work over there? What typically happens when middle/upper income couples with kids split up? Can a parent make a substantial profit on child support payments? Would you have been surprised if this mother had succeeded in collecting 100% of her ex-husband’s income?

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What is our basis for attacking Syria?

I haven’t been following the news closely, but people have been asking for my opinion on Syria and whether or not an American military adventure is warranted.

What would be our basis for attacking people in Syria?

  1. Is it the case that the government there is less legitimate than other non-elected governments worldwide? (this Freedom House map shows that many parts of the world, including Syria, are “not free”)
  2. Is it that the government has been indiscriminate in its response to a rebellion? (but governments all over the world respond harshly to any challenge to their authority; the Sri Lankan Civil War resulted in a huge number of civilian deaths (see this article) and there were no calls for U.S. intervention; the American Civil War included actions that some consider to be war crimes (see this list))
  3. Is it that the government has used chemical weapons? (but note that Syria apparently has not signed any treaty regarding chemical weapons, according to Wikipedia)
  4. Is it that the U.S. has something to gain from a change in government in Syria?

And if we were to attack the Syrians, what would our goals be for the military operation? The fall of the existing government? To persuade the existing government to stop using chemical weapons (if indeed they have been using them)? I see in the news that President Obama has asked Congress to approve an attack on Syrians, but did he state an objective that the attacks were supposed to achieve?

Background: Wikipedia entry on the Syrian Civil War

[Separately,“U.S. Soldiers Find Surprise on Returning to Afghan Valley: Peace”, from yesterday’s New York Times, implies that people on the other side of the globe get along better without the U.S. military being involved.]

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Book Review: One Square Inch of Silence

Having always had a keen interest in sound level measurements, I eagerly opened One Square Inch of Silence: One Man’s Search for Natural Silence in a Noisy World. The book is a much more curious creature than a table of environments and corresponding measurements.

The author, Gordon Hempton, is a sound recording specialist who lives near Olympic National Park. Prior to writing this book, he experiences a terrifying encounter with tinnitus and hearing loss, but recovers:

I had recently turned 50, and to celebrate this I began taking supplements that were recommended to me by my brother, who is a physician and had been on a rigorous vitamin and hormone regimen himself: high-potency B-complex, potassium, calcium, alpha lipoic acid, to name a few.

Then, about two months after discontinuing the supplements, as if God himself had spoken to me, I experienced a sudden onset of completely normal hearing.

After recovering his hearing, Hempton embarks on a quest:

I placed a small red stone, a gift from an elder of the Quileute tribe, on a log in the Hoh Rain Forest at Olympic National Park, approximately three miles from the visitors center. With this marker in place, I hoped to protect and manage the natural soundscape in Olympic Park’s backcountry wilderness. My logic is simple and not simply symbolic: If a loud noise, such as the passing of an aircraft, can affect many square miles , then a natural place, if maintained in a 100 percent noise-free condition, will likewise affect many square miles around it. Protect that single square inch of land from noise pollution, and quiet will prevail over a much larger area of the park. …

By my reckoning, the rate of quiet places extinction vastly exceeds the rate of species extinction. Today there are fewer than a dozen quiet places left in the United States. I repeat: fewer than a dozen quiet places and by that I mean places where natural silence reigns over many square miles.

He selects this place because he believes that it is the quietest place in the United States, specifically including Alaska but without talking about ever having visited Alaska. Based on my experience, a randomly selected point in Alaska would be far less likely to be intruded upon by human or machine sounds (and if you were at that randomly selected point and did hear a helicopter you would be very grateful indeed!). In fact, very likely the average public airport in Alaska would be quieter (remember that a “public airport” in Alaska may be simply a gravel or grass runway with a handful of takeoffs and landings per week; see this list).

The author’s main fight is against aircraft noise, including the noise made by airliners up in the flight levels (i.e., above 29,000′). The sound reaches the ground at about 36-45 dBA, not loud enough to be heard in the city but audible within the Hoh Rain Forest (the author’s readings range from as low as 22 dBA up to a more typical 36-46 dBA, depending on how close he is to flowing water). For reference, the sound level inside a conference room would be 40-50 dBA, inside a Honda Accord on the highway between 65 and 70 dBA, inside an airliner 80-85 dBA, and, sadly, inside a crummy four-seat airplane, 85-95 dBA.

It turns out that this fight is not a great way to bond with a teenager. Hempton’s teenage daughter just wants to listen to her iPod with the sound cranked up to the max, which she is forced to do because her father drives a VW Bus, one of the noisiest personal vehicles on the American Highway (the author measures interior noise as 82 dBA at 53 mph on the highway):

Abby doesn’t get it. Or hasn’t listened. And now she sits sullenly across the table from me, iPod on, earbuds in, head turned away. When I catch her eye and frown, she yanks out the earbuds. “The whole One Square Inch thing— I think it’s bullshit. I’ve always felt that way. It’s stupid.” I guess I’ve got only myself to blame for this. Victim of that old expression “Be careful what you wish for,” I had wanted Abby along for a stretch of the trip to stand in for today’s youth, as she moved from the noise of an urban environment to the deep listening insights of a naturally quiet place . I hoped to gather her observations and insights, too. Well, she’s not very shy with her opinions. So let’s have them. “Why is it stupid?” I ask, dutifully allowing Abby to give her voice to the project “I think it’s a waste of time.” “Do you understand that if you preserve quiet at One Square Inch that it affects noise pollution for 1,000 square miles? That’s not bullshit!” “I don’t want to argue about it,” she says. “I don’t care.” After 16 years, she knows how to push my buttons. “You know, your not caring is really coming through. What do you care about?” “Maybe what a regular teenager cares about. I care about friends. I care about having fun. I don’t feel the need to go deeply into things I don’t care about. I’m willing to take a train home or a bus. Right now.”

“My intent was never to torture you, you understand that, right? This is not a plot against you. Just give me this opportunity to explain your role in my journey, all right? Then you can decide.” “All right,” Abby says quietly. “If you come along you’ll have the opportunity to listen to nature, something that you have not listened to in a long time, and I think that you’ll be surprised.” “That’s what I like,” seconds Yvette. “You’ll like it when you’re eighty-eight.” “Yeah, when I’m older, maybe.” “The idea here,” I continue, “is that when you’re listening with an iPod you’re listening only a quarter-inch away. If you come to Pipestone, you’ll have the opportunity to listen to very faint sounds— sounds that have come from miles away . Wouldn’t that interest you? Take a moment . I don’t think you can even answer that question because you haven’t heard what I am describing. This will be an entirely new place and experience. And I want to get your response to Pipestone. How does it sound to you?” “Well, it doesn’t interest me. I don’t care. I’m not interested in stuff like that.”

The author has some trouble communicating with pilots as well.

When I was studying John Muir’s sound descriptions in his journals and recording in Yosemite, I decided to fly to San Diego to visit my brother. Because I’d had to pretty much limit my recordings to nighttime to avoid the noise intrusion of high-flying commercial jets, I asked the fight attendant to ask the pilot if he would fly around Yosemite . So I was surprised to soon find myself looking down at Half Dome and El Capitan. After we landed, the pilot was standing by the cockpit, so as I was getting off I said, “Well, thanks for at least trying not to fly over Yosemite.” He said, “Not fly over Yosemite? I thought you wanted to fly over Yosemite.”

The author begins his quest, a VW Bus drive from Washington State to Washington, D.C., during the reign of the hated King Bush II and attributes the indifference of federal officials, both within the National Park Service and the Federal Aviation Administration, to Bush’s appointment of people whose main interest in the Earth is how quickly it can be raped and pillaged for resources. The Feds seem to have ample resources overall, e.g., the the author goes camping with a friend in Canyonlands and the Park Service sends federal employees out to investigate:

Then two female park rangers burst into camp— no greeting, barking questions, pointing fingers, and expecting answers. “Why did you put a question mark on the registration form for your vehicle license? Did you gather these?” One points to a collection of deer antlers that had been in the bushes for a long time. Both of the women have darting eyes, as if they suspect us of a crime. The bulldog of the two barks out the big question: “Why have you come here ten years in a row and stayed without moving on?”

But few government workers concentrate specifically on noise. The EPA had an Office of Noise Abatement and Control back in the 1970s, with “ten regional centers of excellence on noise established at universities.” Ronald Reagan’s administrator killed the program, but somehow a handful of staffers managed to continue drawing salaries for the next three decades. The author goes to visit one. He, like everyone else on the federal payroll, seems to have plenty of time for meetings and discussion, but nothing ever gets accomplished, e.g.,

The sun set on Earth Day 2008 and the latest unmet deadline for the National Park Service and the FAA to agree on means for a substantial restoration of natural quiet in the Grand Canyon. That deadline had been set eight years earlier.

It’s now 21 years and counting since the 1987 passage of the first congressional legislation to control air traffic over Grand Canyon National Park. It’s clear the two agencies are communicating, because a couple of weeks prior to Earth Day, on April 9, 2008, the National Park Service gave “clarifying” notice in the Federal Register to remove all aircraft flying above 17,999 feet MSL (above mean sea level) from their near-term, long-overdue rule making for restoring natural quiet at Grand Canyon National Park. Despite a 2002 Federal Court of Appeals Decision (yes, there have been lawsuits slowing things down), which ruled in part that the Grand Canyon Overflight Act did apply to high-flying jets, the Park Service appears to be letting go of the rope on high-altitude commercial and private jets in its tug of war with the FAA, at least at this one battleground national park.

His teenager eventually comes around to having more respect for the project, using it as the subject for her high school senior project: “This project has inspired me to believe that one person can make a difference and I will make a difference.” Yet, thus far, despite five years of Hope and Change from President Obama (elected just as Hempton’s book was wrapping up), the author’s blog shows that no additional action has been taken by government officials. In fact, the author’s last concrete achievement was back in 2001, when American Airlines agreed to avoid flying over Olympic National Park.

Ultimately, as well as providing some hard data on noise levels in different environments, the book is interesting as an example of the challenge in working on a local issue (noise near this guy’s house) that is regulated by a 2-million-employee bureaucracy 3000 miles away (Congress, the EPA, the National Park Service, the FAA, etc.).

More: Read One Square Inch of Silence: One Man’s Search for Natural Silence in a Noisy World.

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Manhattan real estate prices… in Cambridge

I live in a four-unit condo near Harvard Yard (see the epic tale of my purchase back in 1996). The ground floor unit recently went on the market for $429,000. Very shortly five bids materialized, all over the asking price. The accepted bid was for $480,000.

What was bought? The broker, from perhaps Cambridge’s largest real estate firm, listed the apartment as 1363 square feet in the MLS (realtor.com entry for 5 Irving Terrace). The city lists 5-7 Irving Terrace, Unit 2A as having 713 square feet and being worth $349,300 (property database). What is actually inside the unit are two rooms: one bedroom plus a combined kitchen/living room. If you hired someone to refinish the floors they might find 500 square feet. How did the realtor manage to find 1363 square feet for this small one-bedroom? An old version of the condo docs had this apartment combined with another. They were later (20+ years ago) split into two separate condos. Folks who showed up expecting 1363 square feet and found a small one-bedroom were apparently not discouraged, though, based on the number of bids.

If we take the city’s 713 square footage, the place sold for $673 per square foot, but in terms of usable interior space I think the total square footage is closer to that of a 500 sf place in a modern building, which gets us to $1000/sf, i.e., what people pay for an apartment in Manhattan. The apartment includes a driveway parking spot, which is a plus, but the kitchen and bathroom would need $30-50,000 of work to bring them into the modern era.

This supports my theory that the suburbs will be abandoned by the wealthy (May 2013 posting) due to the horrific traffic congestion in our metropolitan areas. Rush hour getting out of Cambridge through Alewife now extends until about 8 pm, but you can buy your way out of sitting in traffic if you’re willing to spend $480,000 on a one-bedroom apartment (plus kitchen/bath renovation costs and, very possibly, your share of a new roof (see below)).

Separately, in case you are ever tempted to trust a realtor…. the broker selling the unit had previously been managing the place for the owner as a rental. He thus became aware of an issue with leaks from the 125-year-old slate roof that might cost more than $30,000 to repair and thus result in an assessment to the new owner. The condo’s master insurance carrier had sent a letter refusing to pay for water damage because of “age-related deterioration” of the roof. I asked the realtor if he’d shared the letter, which he’d had in his possession, with the buyer. “No. That’s not my responsibility. It is up to her home inspector to discover any problems.”

[Finally, what do readers know about old slate roofs? At the end of almost every winter there is some ceiling damage from ice and snow melting through the slate/flashing/whatever. There is occasional additional damage from random events, such as a slate being kicked out of place or falling off. We hire a roofer who goes up there, charges us some money, pronounces the leaks fixed, and then departs. We repeat the cycle the next year. An experienced slate roofer (not our regular contractor) told me that the nails on our roof are copper and that they corrode after about 85 years, resulting in the slates being very easy to dislodge. This is why the life of a slate roof is not infinite. He said that the only real fix was to remove the slates, install ice and water shield material, and then reinstall the slates over the ice and water shield with new nails that will last another 85 years. Have any of the readers done this?]

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How to measure the microwave heating of milk in a plastic cup?

Here’s one for the chemistry, chemical engineering, and mechanical engineering graduate students out there…

What’s a good way to measure the uniformity of heating of milk in a plastic cup in a microwave oven?

Explanation: I have watched a new mother pour milk into a plastic cup with measurements on the side to determine the quantity, then pour that cold milk into a ceramic coffee mug to be heated in the microwave for 30 seconds, then pour the warm milk into a plastic sippy cup to be served to a toddler (3 items to wash). I have observed day care workers perform the same task by heating the milk in the plastic server cup (1 item to wash).

When I have inquired of mothers dirtying either 2 or 3 dishes in serving a cup of milk what their reasoning was, the answer was “It is bad to microwave food or drink in plastic.” Why? “Hot or warm liquid will pull dangerous chemicals out of the plastic.” What about the fact that they were going to then take the warm liquid and immediately dump it into the plastic? If the temperature was a problem, wouldn’t the warm milk hitting the sippy cup leach out whatever dangerous chemicals were in there just about as badly as if the milk had become warm in the microwave? Blank stare in response.

An acquaintance who works for Harvard University managing engineers building scientific experiments opined that the mothers were likely right. “The milk right up against the cup might get super hot while it is in the microwave while the milk in the center remains cold.” I pointed out that this didn’t make a lot of sense given the relatively long wavelengths of microwave cooking energy compared to the size of a sippy cup (Wikipedia says standard frequencies for microwave ovens are .9 to 2.45 GHz, resulting in wavelengths of about 5-12 inches). And wouldn’t convection and conduction within the liquid also make the heating pretty uniform? Hot spots seemed more likely when microwaving solid foods. We put some milk into a sippy cup and tried an on-the-spot experiment. Using sophisticated temperature probes (i.e., our fingers) we couldn’t discern any differences between the edge and center temperatures.

How would one construct an experiment to do this in an actual microwave oven and measure the edge and center temperatures continuously as the milk is heated? (we stuck our fingers in only once the milk was done) There are plenty of infrared temperature probes, I think, that don’t require contact with the item being measured, but I don’t know how well they would operate if stuffed into an operating microwave oven.

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