Facebook is bad for us

“How a half-educated tech elite delivered us into chaos” (Guardian) says that if only the nerds behind Facebook and Google had a humanities education, these Internet monopolies would enrich our lives instead of degrading them:

Zuckerberg dropped out of Harvard, where he was studying psychology and computer science, but seems to have been more interested in the latter. Now mathematics, engineering and computer science are wonderful disciplines – intellectually demanding and fulfilling. And they are economically vital for any advanced society. But mastering them teaches students very little about society or history – or indeed about human nature. As a consequence, the new masters of our universe are people who are essentially only half-educated. They have had no exposure to the humanities or the social sciences, the academic disciplines that aim to provide some understanding of how society works, of history and of the roles that beliefs, philosophies, laws, norms, religion and customs play in the evolution of human culture.

As one perceptive observer Bob O’Donnell puts it, “a liberal arts major familiar with works like Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America, John Stuart Mill’s On Liberty, or even the work of ancient Greek historians, might have been able to recognise much sooner the potential for the ‘tyranny of the majority’ or other disconcerting sociological phenomena that are embedded into the very nature of today’s social media platforms. While seemingly democratic at a superficial level, a system in which the lack of structure means that all voices carry equal weight, and yet popularity, not experience or intelligence, actually drives influence, is clearly in need of more refinement and thought than it was first given.”

(Coincidentally, the author of the piece, John Naughton, had a career teaching humanities…)

The Guardian doesn’t seem to have done any fact-checking with Wikipedia, which says that Mark Zuckerberg had about $200,000 of education, including the humanities, in a Westchester County public school system before picking up additional humanities education at the Phillips Exeter academy for rich kids: “On his college application, Zuckerberg stated that he could read and write French, Hebrew, Latin, and ancient Greek.” Zuckerberg also had two years at Harvard.

Let’s assume that this can be legitimately described as “no exposure to the humanities.” And that explains why Facebook does not give greater prominence to approved points of view. Is that why Facebook is degrading us as human beings and degrading our society? The book iGen, however, suggests that Facebook is inherently bad:

In seven years, social media sites went from being a daily activity for half of teens to almost all of them. That’s especially true for girls: 87% of 12th-grade girls used social media sites almost every day in 2015, compared to 77% of boys. The increases in use have been even larger for minority and lower-income teens—in 2008, white and higher-SES (social scientists call this socioeconomic status, or SES) teens were more likely to use social media sites every day, but by 2015 the race and class differences had disappeared.

For example, 8th graders who spend ten or more hours a week on social media are 56% more likely to be unhappy than those who don’t. Admittedly, ten hours a week is a lot—so what about those who spend merely six hours a week or more on social media? They are still 47% more likely to say they are unhappy. But the opposite is true of in-person social interaction: those who spend more time with their friends in person are 20% less likely to be unhappy

Teens who visit social networking sites every day are actually more likely to agree “I often feel lonely,” “I often feel left out of things,” and “I often wish I had more good friends” (see Figure 3.7; there are fewer activities on this list than for happiness because the loneliness measure is asked on fewer versions of the questionnaire). In contrast, those who spend time with their friends in person or who play sports are less lonely.

Forty-eight percent more girls felt left out in 2015 than in 2010, compared to a 27% increase for boys. Girls use social media more often, giving them more opportunities to feel left out and lonely when they see their friends or classmates getting together without them. Social media are also the perfect medium for the verbal aggression favored by girls. Even before the Internet, boys tended to bully one another physically and girls verbally. Social media give middle and high school girls a 24/7 platform to carry out the verbal aggression they favor, ostracizing and excluding other girls. Girls are twice as likely as boys to experience this type of electronic bullying (known as cyberbullying); in the YRBSS survey of high school students, 22% of girls said they had been cyberbullied in the last year, compared to 10% of boys.

Social media might play a role in these feelings of inadequacy: many people post only their successes online, so many teens don’t realize that their friends fail at things, too. The social media profiles they see make them feel like failures. If they spent more time with their friends in person, they might realize that they are not the only ones making mistakes. One study found that college students who used Facebook more often were more depressed—but only if they felt more envy toward others.

Azar, the high school senior we met in earlier chapters, is an astute observer of the patina of positivity on social media covering the ugly underbelly of reality. “People post pretty Instagram posts, like ‘My life is so great.’ Their lives are crap! They’re teenagers,” she says. “[They post] ‘I’m so grateful for my bestie.’ That is b.s. You are not so grateful for your bestie, because in two weeks she’s going to, like, cheat with your boyfriend, and then y’all gonna have a bitch fight and y’all gonna, like, claw each other’s ears off. That is what a teenager’s life is.”

More: Read iGen.

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It costs $15 to buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin… plus the cost of the cup of coffee

When Bitcoin was new (and cheap!) I remember it being sold as a way to do payments efficiently, especially for small payments, e.g., across international borders.

I recently learned from a Bitcoin expert, however, that handling payments has become a weak spot for Bitcoin. “It costs at least $15 to get a transaction recorded by the miners,” he said. What if you don’t pay that much? “Your transaction will languish out there for a few days before finally dying. If you want it to settle within a few minutes you have to pay $15.” (the money for this fee is split up)

Does this make Bitcoin useless? “Think of it as a store of value, like gold bars in a vault,” he said. “It is not a replacement for a credit card.” So it is a digital Fort Knox, but it doesn’t hold anything other than numbers (and, of course, there is no way to lose by investing in Bitcoin because they’re not making any more numbers).

This guy has a couple of businesses centered around Bitcoin trading, etc. But he also bought a small quantity of Bitcoin back in 2010. How did that work out over the past seven years? He sought out my advice regarding which turbine-powered helicopter to buy for family weekend trips. (I recommended a used AStar for $1.5 million.)

[Should you dive in and buy? He thinks the price will fall in the short run, but eventually go to $100,000 to $300,000 per coin.]

Related:

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Remembering Garrison Keillor

A few times on this blog I have referenced Garrison Keillor and/or Prairie Home Companion.

My link to the 2006 show is broken. Apparently everything the 75-year-old Keillor did has now been stuffed down a memory hole and the replacement is not very funny, e.g., “Minnesota Public Radio (MPR) is terminating its contracts with Garrison Keillor and his private media companies after recently learning of allegations of his inappropriate behavior with an individual who worked with him.” (YouTube hasn’t been thoroughly scrubbed yet, though, here’s an example.)

I will miss a June 2, 2007 show featuring Yvonne Freese, a teenager at the time, singing “God Help the Outcasts” (template used for a song to entertain the toddlers: “Mindy the Crippler”).

Readers: What will you miss about Garrison Keillor? Maybe this blog post will one day be the only Web-based evidence of his existence.

[Separately, does it make sense that it is easier to find sermons by Anwar al-Awlaki than TV or radio shows associated with those accused of mixing sex and business?]

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Set a minimum price for phone calls?

In the 1970s if someone had asked “Would your life be better or worse if phone calls were free?” I would have said, unequivocally, “better.” Now 95 percent of the calls that I receive are spam, usually with a robot on the other end.

If I could replace Donald Trump as supreme dictator, my first act would be to set a minimum price for (legacy network) phone calls of, e.g., 50 cents. There could be exceptions for friends-and-family circles. And maybe each phone line could get a monthly allowance as well. So the average resident of the U.S. would seldom incur this fee, but it would become uneconomic to use humans in India or robots in the U.S. to torture Americans with their own phones.

Phone companies are already heavily regulated, so I don’t see why this decree would be illegal. If the phone companies are getting crazy fat from these fees then presumably their monthly rates will come down a bit due to competition and/or regulation.

It doesn’t seem necessary to regulate voice communication via modern services such as Facebook, FaceTime, Skype, etc. Those services already require some authentication, right? And it is easy to say “just block anyone who isn’t on my contacts list”.

Readers: thoughts?

Related: Back in the 1980s, Ed Fredkin asked MIT students if they would resist a dictator who tried to install a bell right next to their heads in their bedrooms that could be run at any time of night. If we would resist the government imposing this on us, why would we do it voluntarily? (Of course, now the bell is in our pocket!)

Also related: Why wasn’t the phone system completely reorganized around 1985 such that people tell the carrier (a) when they’re available, (b) with whom they wish to communicate in the near-term? The carrier could then match up people who wanted to talk at a time when both were free to talk.

Finally: The country has its collective panties in a twist regarding net neutrality, with reasonable arguments on both sides about the extent to which the FCC should regulate Internet traffic. Meanwhile, everyone agrees that the FCC actually is supposed to regulate the legacy phone network and nobody complains that, under the FCC’s watch, the phone network has turned into an instrument of torture.

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Melinda Gates inspires women in the workplace

Today on Facebook one of my friends decried that “women have tolerated a lot of inappropriate behavior” in the workforce and that the current expulsion of accused men from the workforce is “proportionally understated.” What’s interesting about that? She is a Ph.D.-educated prime working age childless American who quit her career after marrying a rich guy whom she had described as “unattractive.” So she’s passionate on the subject of how women are treated in a labor force of which she is no longer a member.

On a related note, Sheryl Sandberg linked to “Melinda Gates: The World is Finally Listening. Me too. Me too. Me too.” (TIME), noting that “This is such an important piece from my friend Melinda Gates. Stories about sexual harassment and assault … affect women all over the world, from every walk of life.” Here’s what Melinda Gates herself had to say:

2017 is proving to be a watershed moment for women in the workplace and beyond. Instead of being bullied into retreat or pressured into weary resignation, we are raising our voices—and raising them louder than ever before.

What workplace is Melinda Gates in? She is co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (executive team). There is one person at the enterprise who is nominally at the same level, but this is her husband and she may in fact be his supervisor (see “How Melinda and Bill Gates shared school drop-off duty, and changed a community in the process” for how Melinda got Bill, then CEO of Microsoft, to do kid drop-offs and pick-ups (at the time Melinda had no W-2 job)). If there are people at the foundation who are bullying her, why doesn’t she fire them? (or maybe assign them to work with Ebola victims in Africa)

we have been taught that being born female comes with a cost.

What cost did Melinda Gates incur as a result of being female? She was able to gain roughly $100 billion in spending power by marrying Bill Gates, so wouldn’t our first guess be that she would be $100 billion poorer if she’d been born male? Perhaps she is saying that she have obtained more spending power by working if she had been born a man. Wikipedia says that she has a bachelor’s in CS and an MBA. So she thinks she could have earned at least $101 billion with these credentials? Or is she saying that, had she been born as a man she/he would have persuaded Bill Gates to enter into a same-sex marriage so she would still have had the $100 billion in spending power from the marriage plus additional spending power from W-2 labor? (But Melinda Gates got married in 1994 and same-sex marriage was not possible prior to 2004 (Massachusetts).)

[Also, why is sex at birth relevant in our transgender-friendly age? Why isn’t it “identifying as female comes with a cost”?]

Melinda Gates is looking forward to justice in the future:

I hope that her words are this year’s legacy—and that there will always be women to talk to and ears to hear. Because if there are, then justice will finally be served for all of us.

She includes herself in “us,” I think, but doesn’t explain what injustice she has personally suffered.

With Sheryl Sandberg and Melinda Gates as their champions, and armed with a full understanding of their day-to-day challenges, can women all of the world now expect a brave new world of justice?

Related:

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Efficiency in the used car market

We have a 2014 Honda Odyssey EX-L whose lease is expiring. The minivan has only 22,400 miles on it. The dealer says that it is worth $21,000 as a trade-in. kbb.com estimates $21,507 (range of $20,652-22,361). The dealer says that he can sell it for close to $26,000 with a short warranty. kbb.com says that we could sell it to a private party for $23,335 (minimal warranty required in Massachusetts for a private transaction) and that a “fair purchase price” from a dealer is $24,304 whether “certified” or not.

Let’s assume that what the dealer sales manager told me is the best information. He’s planning to make about 24 percent gross profit on the sale while taking a minimal risk of warranty expense (a three-year-old Honda with 22,400 miles shouldn’t melt down). Isn’t this kind of a fat margin for American retail?

[As evidence for the “fat margin,” the actual owner of the dealership keeps a “business” jet at our local airport (his dealerships are all local, so it is tough to see how the jet could be used for business) and has a Bell 407 standing by for shorter hops.]

Separately, as part of the new car shopping process I test-drove a 2018 Honda Odyssey Elite with acoustic side glass as well as the acoustic windshield that comes on the EX-L. It seems to measure roughly 1 dB quieter than the cheaper EX-L model. On smooth pavement at 70 mph, therefore, the meter was showing just 63-64 dBA. It is definitely quieter than the 2014 model, but I am not sure that it is noticeably quieter than the EX-L. The cost of ownership is about $2,000 per year higher. The rear entertainment system (low-res screen that flips down from the middle of the ceiling) adds some annoying complexity to the user interface. Turning it on disables the main audio system from playing in the middle or back of the vehicle. Turning the rear entertainment system off, however, does not automatically restore audio to the middle and rear seats. The enormous alloy wheels on the Elite are polished to a shine that would appropriate for driving around during Reno’s Hot August Nights. I prefer the more understated look of the EX-L, not that anyone is likely to be looking at us in our minivan.

Related:

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What happens to the charity industry if the Republican tax plan goes through?

Right now the U.S. has some of the world’s highest income tax rates, a tax deduction for charitable contributions, and, perhaps not coincidentally, the world’s fattest charities (e.g., college presidents making over $1 million per year, some heroes at other types of charities as well).

Today is “Giving Tuesday”. If you give $100 to charity, your fellow taxpayers will chip in maybe $40 of that. If the Republican tax rate cut goes through, on the other hand, though the charitable deduction is preserved, tax rates have been cut to the point that perhaps your fellow taxpayers will be on the hook only for $25. If part of the fun of giving to charity is giving away other people’s money, will donations be cut to the point that managers at non-profits have to sell their houses in the Hamptons?

One could argue that by leaving U.S. citizens with more of what they’ve earned, they’ll buy more of everything, including the bragging and feel-good rights that come with charitable donations. In that case, donations to charity should go up. I’m not sure that I buy this. Aristotle pointed out that one of the problems with Plato’s proposed elimination of private property was that it prevented people from enjoying the feeling of being charitable. The modern equivalent of that is the welfare state. Since the government is supposedly doing everything for everyone, what hope is there for a private individual to “make a difference”? This attitude is on display in a comment to What can we do to help Houstonians?: “We can let our elected representatives know we support appropriate aid for those affected and are willing to pay the taxes necessary to make that happen.”

Readers: What do you think? Giving Tuesday 2018 will be bigger or smaller than this year?

[You might ask about my personal plans. After about 40 years of giving cash to 501c3s I have decided to stop in favor of more personal stuff (possible exception: charities where I actually know the managers and that they aren’t diverting donations into their own pockets, e.g., End of year charity idea: Kids on Computers). From my aviation page I offer to run helicopter tours for charities to auction. And then I find it satisfying to help out individuals, such as the children of this friend who recently died, or the neighborhood K-12 students whom I tutor, or the Harvard and MIT students whom I teach as a volunteer. It strikes me as bizarre that we’ve all come to accept a system where if Amanda Citizen helps Joe Needy directly, she has to provide all of the cash herself whereas if Amanda Citizen gives money to Big Charity that in turn promises to help Joe Needy, the rest of us taxpayers will kick in 40 percent (and then Big Charity will skim at least that 40 percent off the top to pay employees). Plainly the 501c3s are good at lobbying, but why don’t citizens complain about politicians being owned by charities in the same way that they complain about politicians being owned by other special interest groups?]

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Virtue committee for Hollywood?

Through the mid-1960s, Hollywood stars were famous for engaging in what was considered immoral behavior at the time, e.g., divorcing a spouse so as to have sex with someone richer or better-looking, having sex with a lot of different people without being married to any of them, abusing drugs or alcohol, etc. Nonetheless, people flocked to the movies and watched TV avidly, even those who strongly disapproved of this behavior.

Then we went through a period where the rest of America caught up to Hollywood in terms of discarding old ideas regarding morality. Ordinary Americans began living the divorced and drug-assisted lives that formerly had been the exclusive province of the immoral Hollywood elite. Certainly there was no moral issue then about going to the movies and watching people who shared one’s amoral outlook.

Now we’re back to perceiving at least certain people in Hollywood as engaging in immoral behavior, notably sexual harassment or “sexual misconduct.” Unlike in, say, the 1950s, however, we’ve decided that we cannot implicitly condone this behavior by watching movies or TV shows in which these comparatively immoral people appear. Studios and TV networks are killing movies and shows after allegations of misconduct become public.

I’m wondering if it is time for a virtue committee for Hollywood. Instead of individual studios or TV networks having to make decisions about who gets blacklisted and whose works must go into the memory hole, a society-wide decision can be made by trained committee members. Without the virtue committee it will be tough for a studio to rehabilitate someone without risking a boycott by a Facebook mob. The virtue committee can shield businesses from having to make and defend their (subjective) decisions. The virtue committee can serve as a central place for a disgraced accused harasser to figure out what penance will be required before rehabilitation. This will be a lot better for investors. Right now they lose everything that they put into a movie if, for example, the director is accused of doing something with an actor.

This can be like the MPAA rating system. Instead of rating completed films, however, the virtue committee will rate the off-camera behavior of people in Hollywood.

Readers: What about this idea? Most important: who has such exemplary virtue that he or she should be nominated to serve on this committee?

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Eventually a society comes to resemble its family court?

Our media is full of reports of who was victimized by whom, e.g., through being touched in some way or because X had sex with Y without informing Z (see Jurvetson). These kinds of reports were previously easy to find by walking down to the local family court and looking at the files or sitting in on a hearing or trial. Claims of abuse are pretty much standard in any kind of divorce litigation despite the apparent irrelevance to the subject matter (who will have to pay how much to whom).

A friend sent me this story about Roy Moore representing a grandmother in a 1991 custody lawsuit against a mother. The mom who was on the losing end of the lawsuit has now come forward to allege that her butt was grabbed by Moore. Thus we the public are now asked to evaluate the kind of claim that formerly only family court judges had to hear.

I’m wondering if a society will come to resemble its family court, maybe with a 20- or 30-year lag. The European countries generally have low cash stakes in their family courts (e.g., having sex with a dermatologist will not yield the spending power of a dermatologist). Are Europeans less interested in hearing about X grabbing Y’s butt 25 years ago?

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Cessna Longitude

Selling airplanes to the rabble hasn’t been profitable since the Collapse of 2008. Cessna has been following the money upmarket at a breakneck speed by deemphasizing its historic leadership position in light jets and developing larger business jets. (Note that “breakneck speed” where products require FAA certification means “over maybe a 12-year period”.)

The Cessna Longitude, currently flying around for demonstration purposes but not yet fully certified, showed up at our local airport the other day (photos). If you have $27 million, 8 friends, and a co-pilot (the aircraft requires two pilots), this is a beautiful machine indeed.

Despite being approximately $27 million short in the funds department and 6-7 people short in the friends department, the Cessna sales folks were extremely gracious and I was able to talk to some of the engineers and test pilots as well as the real prospective customers, some of whom had flown the aircraft.

My high-level impression is that it has become tough to innovate on performance or cost. The latest bizjets are not dramatically faster or cheaper to run than designs from 10, 20, or even 30 years ago. Thus a lot of the innovation and competition will be around passenger comfort. Cessna, which has a great track record in interior noise control, says that the plane should be roughly 6 dBA quieter than the Bombardier Challenger 350, its nearest competitor. A friend who operates Gulfstreams and high-end Embraer jets said that the in-flight Longitude was “amazing” inside, “like riding in a Rolls Royce going 50 mph. You can talk in a normal tone of voice. It is like wearing noise-canceling headsets the whole time.” The cabin altitude at FL450 (about 45,000′ above sea level) is 6,000′ rather than the conventional 8,000′. The Longitude has a conventional aluminum fuselage, as opposed to composite (plastic), so making it strong enough to handle the higher pressure differential adds weight and reduces the passenger capacity, but why would you want a bunch of commoners cluttering your jet anyway?

The baggage compartment is accessible while in flight. The seats fold almost completely flat for sleeping (though they don’t have footrests that extend so some kind of jet bed will be required for airline-style first class sleeping). Fit and finish is amazing, comparable to the Gulfstreams that I’ve been in (in the hangar, not as an invited passenger!). A Global Express pilot agreed that Cessna has caught up to the industry leaders in the fit and finish department. He said that the airplane had a great control feel.

The cockpit is a beautiful place, but I can’t figure out why there is so much of it. The Garmin G5000 includes seven sizable LCD displays, four of them functioning as controllers for the three biggest. My first reaction: “It looks like a programmer was told to replicate electronically every gauge or instrument that was in a B-29.” There is a massive pedestal in between the pilot seats and this is covered in switches and levers. This is an advanced jet, but why should we need all of this in a clean-sheet design? Suppose that one had a heads-up display with airspeed, altitude, and a big arrow pointing toward the direction where the plane is supposed to be headed. How much more is truly critical? Why does one want separate gear and flap handles? Why not have the airplane figure out that we’re on downwind or base and offer to configure the airplane appropriately? Maybe there should be some emergency control for flaps and/or gear, but if a $500 DJI drone can land itself why can’t a $27 million jet that can display georeferenced approach plates figure out when it is time to lower the gear on an ILS approach? The computers are displaying vertical speed. Why can’t they call “positive rate” and raise the gear after take-off? Similarly, why can’t the computer call “V2 plus 10” and retract the flaps after take-off?

Separately, the virtual reality flight from Teterboro to Paris was a great experience. As VR gets better I am wondering why any American will work. Why not chill out in the (means-tested public) house, tour the world’s most beautiful places by VR, play games with friends by VR, and get off the sofa only either to (1) use one’s EBT card to pick up some free-range carrots at the local Whole Foods, or (2) use Medicaid to see a physician regarding a sore “VR butt”?

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