Davis, California

A report from a visit to Davis, California…

The university seems to be in good shape despite all of the talk of dire budget problems. The lawns are trimmed and the students seem happy and purposeful. Due to the tuition of $13,000 per year (source; compare to $35,000 at Harvard), the school is a place where a lot of kids from poorer families are able to start working their way up the economic ladder (California has a falling white population, so necessarily the UC system will be serving a lot of immigrants and children of recent immigrants). Professors seemed to take undergraduate education seriously.

The town has done a lot of sensible things with local tax dollars, e.g., run a decent school system and maintain a lot of pleasant “greenways”. Unfortunately, however fiscally responsible the town might be, the residents will end up paying the pension costs of fiscally irresponsible cities such as Vallejo, California. Vallejo may be bankrupt and reneging on its promises to bondholders, but the pension promises that their politicians handed out are now obligations of the state, as far as I know (see this article, which contains some numbers on average compensation, this more detailed study from Cato Institute, this detailed table of Vallejo firefighter compensation, this list of some particular individuals earning up to $300,000 per year in simple wages). In theory, I think the California towns and cities that handed out all of the $200,000-500,000/year pensions will have to pay the costs. In practice, if they can’t pay, I would think that the burden will fall on Californians in other parts of the state (though I guess you could argue that the federal government will step in and bail out California with tax dollars raised from citizens of other states).

People who live in the town seem to love it. All of their friends are easily accessible by bicycle and a lot of recreational activities are available within a 1- to 2.5-hour drive (there will soon be fewer opportunities for recreation, since California is closing roughly one quarter of its state parks (story)). Unlike a New England or Old England town, the immediate surroundings of Davis are not attractive. One goes straight from subdivision to agribusiness. So the opportunities for a pleasant walk are better if one is willing to drive two hours round-trip to the trailhead. They aren’t as good as in a lot of smaller New England towns if one wants to walk out one’s backyard.

Houses close to the town center and university tend to be from the 1960s and on small lots. Despite the high costs of these houses, ranging from $400,000 to $800,000, they are poorly maintained and hardly anyone has invested in new construction or extensive renovations. People who want to live in newer nicer houses drive or bike an extra couple of miles into subdivisions that are on the outskirts of town. Curiously these are on lots ranging in size from 0.15-0.2 acres. Given the footprints of the houses, which tend to sprawl a bit, the result is a house that might cost as much as $2 million and that has essentially no yard. The space between houses is best described as an “air shaft” rather than a side yard. Hardly anyone has enough of a backyard that a couple of 8-year-olds could throw a ball around. Consequently, kids are dumped into the street and public areas, which isn’t so bad since most of the streets are cul-de-sacs and playgrounds dot the landscape every few hundred feet.

It seems odd that the newer bigger houses would be built on such small lots. There does not seem to be any shortage of land near Davis. realtor.com shows that nearby farmland sells for between $6,000 and $25,000 per acre.

California has a lot of great natural resources, e.g., the perfect climate of La Jolla or the scenic beauty of San Francisco Bay. California has a lot of concentrations of interesting industries, e.g., entertainment in Los Angeles or technology in Silicon Valley. If you live in a place with natural beauty or fantastic job opportunities, it might not be too painful to pay the nation’s third highest income tax rate, the nation’s highest sales tax rate, or endure the 2nd worst business tax climate in the U.S. (source for all three). But a person in a town such as Davis does not benefit, on a daily basis, from any of the things that draw people to San Diego, Los Angeles, or the Bay Area. So how is it fair for the Davis resident to pay the same 9% sales tax and 10% income tax as the Google or Disney employee?

[Why are the pensions so expensive? In California they are based on the total cash received from the state in the last year of work. If the employee has saved up months of vacation days from previous years and gets paid for them on the day of retirement, e.g., on his 50th birthday, up to 90 percent of that one-time payment, plus an inflation adjustment, will be added every year to his or her pension. I.e., if the employee lives to be 100 and we assume a discount rate after inflation of 1 percent, the employee will be paid, in net present value terms, 35.4X whatever his or her ordinary salary was for those vacation days (45X without discounting). An employee whose base salary was $200,000 per year, for example, and who’d saved three months of vacation would get paid approximately $2.255 million for those vacation days, in today’s dollars. Discounting at a 1 percent rate (similar to the yield on TIPS bonds), the value of those vacation payments would be $1.769 million. Any payments for overtime worked would be similarly multiplied.]

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Identity Crisis

Yesterday evening I called Hertz:

  • “I’m calling to find out if I can return my rental car at Oakland instead of SFO.”
  • “What’s the RR number at the top right of the contract?”
  • “67383893”
  • “What’s the name on the contract?”
  • “Greenspun”
  • “First name?”
  • “Philip”
  • “Are you ‘Philip Greenspun’?”

I never established who Hertz suspected might be calling about a rented-out car other than the person who rented it.

Having learned that it would cost $500 extra to return the car at Oakland, I drove the few extra miles to SFO and returned the car there. At the beginning of the security checkpoint, a uniformed TSA agent looked at my driver’s license and boarding pass and then, as he had been doing with every other passenger, asked “Please verify your last name.”

 

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Massachusetts job losses 2000-2010?

In this Boston Globe article, Robert L. Reynolds, the CEO of Putnam Investments, says

I think if you go back over the last 10 years, Massachusetts has lost more jobs than any other state except one. The bad part is we have lost more population between the ages of 18 and 25. It’s all about jobs. Massachusetts needs to be as business friendly as possible. There are more corporate headquarters in Cincinnati than in Boston.

I’m wondering what his source could be for this. A Google search found http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/the-u-s-economys-lost-decade/ but that’s a nationwide number. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes total jobs by state, but they don’t seem to have a convenient report for the period discussed. I used the BLS database feature to pull Massachusetts data. We went from 3,324,800 jobs in June 2000 to 3,185,000 in June 2010. So we lost 4 percent of our jobs. It is hard to find a convenient way to compare that to other U.S. states.

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Soft housing prices: Maybe Americans just aren’t dumb enough to keep buying houses?

The housing market remains soft, so we’re told, and the best minds of central economic planning are struggling to understand why and what new government gimmicks can be applied. I’m wondering if former homeowner sentiment has been factored in. This article from Zillow says that approximately 37 percent of home sellers are selling at a loss. Whatever the loss figured by Zillow you also have to add another 5-6 percent in real estate commission, equivalent to more than a year of rent in many markets. Psychologically, a person who just lost enough money to have paid for 5-10 years of rent is not a very likely candidate to go back into the market where he was just burned.

Thus the more houses are sold, the worse the buyer-seller ratio will get. Every sale has a roughly 37% chance of removing a person from the real estate ownership market. More and more Americans will be conditioned to the idea that home ownership is a waste of time and money, not to mention the inflexibility that it imposes on a person who might otherwise have been able to get a better job by moving.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html has some data on the price-to-rent ratio in various markets. In Manhattan it is 30:1. San Francisco and Seattle aren’t far behind. Thus for about 3.3 percent of the cost of buying, a person could rent. A buyer, by contrast, would pay at least 6% in real estate commissions and other transaction costs (the commission might be deferred until the property must be sold, but it will have to be paid eventually; or you could view at least half of the commission as built into the sale price). The buyer will have to pay perhaps 2% every year in property tax and maintenance, plus an additional 5% for mortgage.

In our wealthy suburb of Boston, rents are 3-4% of house prices. That would barely pay for property tax, maintenance (winters are harsh), and landscaping (weeds are aggressive). So the landlord who rents, and there are plenty, is basically giving the house for free to the renter. When it is time to sell, it takes 9-12 months of leaving the house empty, so the cost to sell is 8-10%, even if the market remains flat.

Another advantage for renters is that they can free their minds from the clutter that prevents homeowners from doing or thinking anything interesting. People in Manhattan, even when they own, never do any maintenance or yard work. So they can write novels and build empires. The rest of us go to Home Depot every few days and pull weeds.

Summary: Why would house prices continue to fall then? The longer that house prices fall, the more people will critically assess whether it makes any financial sense to own and conclude “it does not”. They withdraw themselves from the market of potential buyers, at least for 10 years or so until they forget what wounds they suffered and how boring they were when they owned.

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No elation regarding Osama bin Laden’s death

I’ve seen television coverage of big celebrations over the death of Osama bin Laden. I can’t say that I feel motivated to join, however. It isn’t that I will miss bin Laden, but rather that I don’t like the idea of the United States people being at war with a single individual in a suburb of Islamabad. Our concerns as a nation should be larger than any one of us or any one of “them”.

(Related: I wrote a few times about how it upset me that George W. Bush would directly mention Saddam Hussein or angry Iraqis in speeches (example).)

[Separately, people have been asking me about the Black Hawk that was crashed during the raid. I explained that it cost about $20 million and that if I were flying around a leafy hilly suburb at night it wouldn’t be long before I put my tail rotor into a tree or wall. “I heard that they had a mechanical failure,” responded a friend. “That would be my mechanical failure,” I replied. “My tail rotor failed.” (So far the details about what happened to the helicopter have been sketchy, ranging from a random mechanical failure to a grenade.)]

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Best inexpensive 17″ laptop computer?

Folks: I want to buy a luggable/shippable note computer for use in doing some reading of PDF documents, reviewing some source code with standard Unix tools (could use cygwin if Windows-based), and editing documents with Open Office. A large screen will make the machine much more productive, so 17″ is the minimum screen size (1600×900 resolution is fine due to my ancient eyes being unable to read tiny fonts anyway; Dell charges about $100 extra for 1920×1080 resolution and I guess it would be worth $100 but not more). It would also be nice if the laptop had HDMI and DVI outputs (up to 2560×1600 for driving a 30″ monitor) for those situations in which it can be hooked up to an external display.

The budget is not heavily constrained, but as this computer will be used for just a single purpose I don’t want to overspend. Here are a few options that have been suggested:

Anyone have experience with these or similar 17″ laptops? Another brand to suggest? I don’t think it needs to run Windows (as long as it can run Adobe Reader, Open Office, etc.), though I also don’t want to take the time to install an operating system so it needs to come with an OS pre-installed. A solid-state drive would be nice, but it seems crazy to spend more on a boot drive than on the computer itself. Where are all of the laptops with the hybrid solid state/hard disk drives that we were promised by now? Why isn’t a hybrid drive, at least, standard or at least available on mainstream laptops?

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English helicopter pilot marries

How I would write today’s big news story:

Bill Louis, English helicopter pilot marries. The groom has significant time as first officer on the WS-61 Sea King helicopter, a five-bladed design with a maximum gross weight of 21,400 lbs and a cruise speed of 112 knots. The helicopter is powered by two Rolls-Royce turboshaft engines, each with 1660 shp. The bride, Catherine Middleton,has yet to earn a rating.

(What do I love about England, aside from the fact that we’re copying them (October 2008; January 2009)? The really know how to celebrate a helicopter pilot’s marriage!)

 

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Taxes compared across cities and states

http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/frames.asp?doc=/cfo/lib/cfo/09STUDY.pdf is an interesting report comparing taxes (income, property, sales, auto) across big cities in the U.S. Most interesting to me is the large variation in tax burden across cities that seem to offer fairly comparable levels of service (see page 14, for example). From a group of families at different income levels, for example, New York City and Philadelphia take in $46-49,000/year. Boston, which has more expenses for harsh weather, makes do with $36,330. Seattle is able to run a nice city for $24,145 while Los Angeles needs $41,368 to keep its residents stuck in traffic 24/7.

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Social bookmarking and Delicious

I’m watching the sale of Delicious with some interest. Here’s the history of social bookmarking:

  • 1997 or earlier?: an unknown hero thought of the idea probably (date is a guess)
  • June 1999: I asked a couple of programmers at ArsDigita to develop a module for our free open-source online community toolkit, the software behind the photo.net Web site. The documentation is available at http://philip.greenspun.com/doc/bookmarks (it is conceivable that this was the first time anyone had built such a system, but seems doubtful). At this point the technical problem was solved. Anyone could download the software and have user registration and social bookmarking up and running within a few hours.
  • September 2003: Delicious founded (source)
  • December 2005: Delicious sold to Yahoo for an estimated $15-30 million.
  • April 2011: Delicious more or less given away to a couple of rich guys? (WSJ)

I.e., the idea and implementation went from economically worthless (1999) to very valuable (2005) to nearly worthless again (today).

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