From September 28, Doom by December for the wicked unmasked Swedes:
By the end of December, 200 Swedes will be dying every day from coronaplague, unless they see the light and convert to the Church of Shutdown and don the hijab.
Associated terrifying chart from the “scientists”:
How did #Science do? WHO says that Sweden has experienced 18 deaths in the last 7 days, an average rate of 2.5 deaths per day or 1.25% of the forecast. Admittedly, this is not a perfect experiment. For the first time since March, the Swedes tweaked their policies slightly in November, e.g., adopting masks on crowded public transport, reducing the number of people who can attend a commercial (“public”) gathering from 50 to 8 (still possible to host a big party at one’s house and unmasked Swedes still gather regularly for school and work). The elderly King of Sweden, a guy with 11 palaces and 3 taxpayer-funded Gulfstream jets to fly among them, suggested that shutdown would have been a better policy than “give the finger to the virus” (young healthy Swedes who live in small apartments might have a different perspective on the costs and benefits of home confinement).
So… given a three-month time horizon, the expert scientific prediction regarding what would happen in Sweden was off by a factor of 80X.
- Sweden’s total deaths in 2020 compared to previous years (The Swedish MD/PhDs said that half of the people who died with a COVID-19 tag would have died at some point in 2020 (due to old age and/or poor health); if they’re right, the upper limit on excess deaths should be half the COVID-19 death statistic. Keep in mind that you need to adjust for a larger population in figuring the death rate and that the “as of December 11” on the chart should really be “as of December 4” because it takes a while for death statistics to propagate. Sweden was home to 9.3 million people in 2010 and today has 10.4 million potential human hosts for the coronavirus.)
5 thoughts on “Let’s check that September prediction about Sweden”
Wow – only off by 80x? Grading COVID-19 predictions on the curve that is a sold B+!
If you would have checked on Dec 22nd, the death rate for the previous 7 days in Sweden was 7.07 (data from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer) . Still **way off** the modeling ‘predictions’ but 2.8x the number you quote. However your point still stands, Happy New Year.
Paul B: It is great to pick a date that confirms one’s hypothesis/religion/prejudice. However, I scheduled this post for Dec 30 (“end of December”, but not interfering with New Year’s Eve) when I wrote the September 28 post. Instead of following the standard scientific practice (see https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 ) of looking at all of the data and then retrospectively picking a window, I simply stuck to my originally chosen date.
Good point, Phil. I missed that point about December 30th!
Merry Christmas, Honaka, Chunaka, Quaanza , Quantas, ETC.
Note that in the virtuous New England states, those that have had around 2 deaths per thousand seem to have some kind of heard immunity, where the ratio of deaths to positive tests have dropped quite a bit.
Sweden, on the other hand, has less than one death per thousand, and is farther away from herd immunity (whatever that means) than the pious New Englanders, bur has had enough deaths that there is a significant drop in the positive test to death ratio.
for a quick reference, graphs are updated daily, and you can typically navigate to a state or a country in very few clicks or keystrokes, and the relevant stats are listed below the graphs. And the source code is downloadable.
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