The Florida insurance bubble seems to be deflating

Our HOA has cut fees for 2026. Digging into the budget, it looks like one savings is insurance, which has fallen from $55,000 to $40,000 per year. This covers a substantial clubhouse with gym, a pool, and a playground. Holiday lighting has fallen from $6,000 to $4,000 so maybe the “Big Lighting” cartel has been broken up? Xfinity will get more money, $94,000 instead of $89,300. That covers television only for about $725 per house; residents pay for Internet separately.

Despite the apparent improvement in insurance rates, the big multi-state companies, e.g., State Farm and progressive Progressive, still don’t want to write coverage for our neighborhood (about 2.5 miles inland and, therefore, moderately exposed to hurricanes).

How are things back in Massachusetts? In response to the meme “90% of modern real estate is trying to avoid blacks while not admitting you are trying to avoid blacks”, a friend responded “I have never tried to avoid blacks”. He lives south of Boston in a town that Google AI says is less than 0.5% Black. It is about the same distance from Boston as Brockton: “Brockton became the first majority-Black city in New England in 2020, a major demographic milestone.” (Google AI)

Some parts of our exchange:

  • (him) Brockton is a sh*thole
  • (me) So you didn’t avoid Blacks, you just avoided looking at any houses in places where Blacks live. You paid about 3X per square foot to live in [nearly-all-white town], which is 0.5% Black and is inconvenient, rather than in Brockton, which is 50% Black and blessed with many walkable neighborhoods.
  • It is 0.05% African American, not 0.5%. I am just saying I have never once had the thought enter my mind.
  • (me) That makes it even worse. Your racism is so deeply embedded that you aren’t even aware of your racism. You need to camp out at the local public library and read every book on anti-racism.
  • (another friend chimes in) Your decisions prove structural racism because they are proxying racist behavior. It is like claiming that your equestrian community welcomes all races.
  • (the guy who says he hasn’t tried to avoid Blacks) I have never seen a single black person in my town. Not even working as a landscaper. I guess I have as UPS driver.
  • (me) I thought you didn’t see color?

(One thing that I do like about our corner of Florida is that it is common to see Black and white people working together and, sometimes, living in close proximity and with both groups paying market rents (in MA Black people inhabit a parallel society and if they live in a white area it is usually as wards of the taxpayer).)

15 thoughts on “The Florida insurance bubble seems to be deflating

  1. The lion kingdom will most likely never move back to Fl*rida, having finally sold its forever plot of land for a 20% loss. There was an interesting dichotomy between falling land prices & rising construction prices. The land became worthless but the assessed value of a house would have been infinity.

  2. Would it violate fair housing laws to redline people who still watch cable television? I suppose it might be seen as a proxy for age discrimination.

  3. Curious what is the $40k insurance policy covering (property/casualty, liability etc.) and is the policy coverage unchanged vs. prior year? That is a massive decrease, so seems like an outlier relative to national trends…may be an interesting back story.

    • I don’t know what it covers. Surely liability, e.g., someone getting injured in the HOA gym, pool, or playground. I think it also covers the cost of casualty to the HOA gym and some more minor structures, such as the pool bathrooms.

  4. Progressive is and has been for a long time an interesting company. Progressive is primarily known for automobile insurance and no less an authority than one of the top dogs at Berkshire, Buffett or one of the others, says it is the best run auto insurer in the business because of the quality of its data analytics. Its driving force was the now deceased Peter B. Lewis who wrote his senior thesis at Princeton on something having to do with automobile insurance. He was a big funder of the arts and liberal causes and had more than a passing interest in marijuana and hallucinogenics – managing to get himself arrested at age 70 for marijuana possession. His annual reports used to be something to look forward to because each year he would commission a different modern artist to design the report and fill it with that artist’s work. Lewis, like Buffett, had a control stake in the company so could do whatever he wanted. Progressive stock has been a terrific investment up close to 40X in the last 25 years plus lots of dividends. The company’s dividend policy is interesting – essentially they pay a large dividend each January based on the previous years profits and some other factors – this year it will be $13.50 p/sh. The stock price is down a few percent over the last year – so maybe the ride is over. Or maybe not.

    • I’ve had Progressive for auto insurance for over 30 years. Excellent service and always $300 or more less costly than all of the others.

  5. Racial demographics of Jupiter, FL from July 2024 Census (Florida, national in parenthesis):

    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/jupitertownflorida/PST045224
    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/FL/PST045224
    https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045224

    Black alone: 1.4% (16.9%, 13.7%)
    Asian alone: 1.9% (3.4%, 6.7%)
    Latino/Hispanic: 17.3% (28.7%, 20.0%)
    White alone, not Latino/Hispanic: 75.7% (50.6%, 57.5%)

    Median household income: $109K ($72K, $79K)

    U.S. Median household income by race:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ethnic_groups_in_the_United_States_by_household_income

    Black: $48K
    Asian: $97K
    Non-white Hispanic: $61K
    White: $74K

    Also see:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jupiter%2C_Florida#Demographics

    Over time the percentage of blacks seems to be holding steady, considerably below Florida and national levels, white is down, primarily due to increases of Latino/Hispanic.

    De facto redlining, maybe?

    • Pareto Principle, you seem to like statistics.

      Let me add on more: blacks murder people at 8x the rate of white people by all statistics.

      Consequently, I avoid black people at all costs.

      Comprende?

    • @HB

      Just for that racially hateful comment, I’m going to fly down to Jupiter and hug a black person. If I can find one. For the record, I live in a racially segregated elite enclave like Phil and his buddy. Statistics are what we make of them, hombre. Is redlining any worse than gerrymandering?

      Really, I think you are just mad because you weren’t mentioned in your half-sister’s diary. Via con tacos, amigo.

    • Remember that “Whites down; Hispanics up” is in no way, shape, or form a “replacement”.

      Despite the low percentage of Blacks reported by Census, it is reasonably common to interact with native-born Black Americans in Jupiter whereas that almost never happened for a white person in Lincoln, Massachusetts (and not even that often in Cambridge). Maybe some of the Black people who show up here as customers of restaurants and retail, as visitors to the beach, or as workers in various trades don’t live in Jupiter, but they’re not off in a separate society.

    • @Pareto: That census.gov/quickfacts is excellent. It had been down for several months. I was suspecting the Federal government was trying to hide the quick facts.

  6. Property insurance for my east coast FL home, three miles from the beach, costs me $700/yr (no windstorm/hurricane coverage). My property tax is $600/yr (bought the house directly from Bank of America as a short sale in 2011, so I’m locked in at a low assessed value). Only problem is I want to retire to The Villages in three years and don’t want to give up these low expenses.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *