What are folks predicting regarding tomorrow’s official inflation number? My guess: 4% annual.
What’s the real rate? Let’s look at this Microplane cheese grater, a combination of U.S. and Mexican manufacturing. It was $12.95 in November 2014.
Adjusted to official CPI, it should be about $18.50 today. In fact, however, it had gone up to only $12.99 at the end of June when I decided to see how much sharpness these things lose after 12 years of abrasion in the dishwasher.
Does this prove Elon Musk at least partially correct? If everything can be done by machine then perhaps we won’t have epic inflation anymore. If we continue our addiction to population growth via immigration we could still host raging real estate inflation (“they’re not making any more land”), though even that could be ameliorated with construction robots (“they’re not making any more condos,” as my bond hedge fund manager friend likes to say in response to the classic line, which is certainly a great lesson for anyone investing in Florida (it can be tough to give away older condos right now, but single-family homes remain valuable and so do condos in new or new-ish buildings)). And maybe we could have inflation in food prices because food production is limited by how much damage we are willing to inflict on the environment, e.g., dumping fertilizer-rich water into the Gulf of America, which paradoxically, creates the Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone.
On the bright side, Narcan is “free” (not “taxpayer-funded”) in Cambridge, Maskachusetts:
> “they’re not making any more land”
Except they are!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation
(Partially filled with dull truffle graters, of increasingly poor quality. I wish vape rigs were getting cheaper.)
Your 4.0% CPI forecast for July (for the *official* July YoY% # to be reported tomorrow) will almost surely be way high vs. what is reported. The consensus today is 3.4% and consensus rarely differs by as much as .6% (zero times in past 5 years). Also, over the past 12 months consensus has overestimated it in 8 months, underestimated it in 1 month and matched it in 3 months.
The official number will be 3%. 10% durable goods – 7% wage deflation. If production was unlimited, the fed would print money until inflation covered the national debt anyway. Deflation is not allowed under monetary policy.
Tangentially, who knew Cambridge had a smack problem in the sailing community? I learn something new (I don’t care about) every day.
My guess is that the microplane has probably been subject to some kind of enshittifcation-esque manufacturing cost-cutting process. However, I bought one from amazon in 2002 for $8.29 and the current price I see is 12.99 (Different model, I guess)
I remember when I bought it, it was sort of a specialty item. I have bought several more over the years, but apparently not from amazon. I don’t put them in the dishwasher, instead using a sponge in non-cutting direction.
From a one-star review on Amazon:
“I was very happy with the Microplane purchased many years ago, but in time it wore out and it took more pressure to grate the garlic, so I ordered a new one. It looks almost the same, except it has a marking that the metal part is made in the USA and it also has a fancy sheath that does not touch the grating teeth.
So I made a test trying to grate two cloves of garlic and the old one is still better. In the end I started a return process and ordered another brand.”
https://www.amazon.com/portal/customer-reviews/srp/-/R2XMH7BOIRBSLS/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8
Why are you using the price of a knife to gauge how inflation is doing? How many Americans buy a knife every year and use that purchase to measure the impact of inflation? And why are you using the experiences of “average” Americans, like yourself, and your readers, to determine how much pain Americans are actually feeling from inflation?
May I suggest doing some homework and looking at Americans who receive welfare and other government assistance? Are they actually feeling the same level of financial pain from inflation? You will see that most if not all, are doing just fine and, in some cases, better financially than you, me, or your readers.
For them, no inflation means no pain, and life is good, thanks to you, your readers, and me for helping keep them comfortable and happy.