A posting every day; an interesting idea every three months…
Here’s how tough the supply chain is right now. GM is delivering partially completed cars for dealers to finish once the parts are available.
(from Sebring, Florida)
Full post, including commentsA friend is a tinted window enthusiast and mentioned in a chat group that he was having some trouble getting his doctor in Maskachusetts to sign documents that will satisfy the bureaucracy that runs the tint waiver program:
Apparently this should not be too challenging. The tint enthusiast knows of some people who were approved due to doctors using “dry skin” as a justification.
A response from a Californian in the chat group:
Get medicinal marijuana doc to say u r too stoned to put sunglasses on
Separately, is tinted glass necessary on any modern car? For roughly 20 years, at least mid-trim cars have come from the factory with heat-rejecting (sometimes called “solar absorbing”) glass, right?
(Where is aftermarket tint necessary? Airplane windows! Unfortunately, they are plastic and can be destroyed by standard automotive products. Small planes typically have no air-conditioning (costs $30,000 and reduces payload by 10 percent) and the factory windows are greatly inferior in heat-rejection to what’s in a Toyota Corolla (one of which passed us on Florida’s Turnpike the other day going at least 90 mph!). Plane Tint sells a specially formulated product that we applied to our 2005 SR20 before making the Florida move. It has held up well so far.)
Full post, including commentsFrom what I have observed, there is no better way to tackle the perfectly smooth roads between a suburban Florida house and the perfectly smooth paved parking lot next to the beach than in an off-road vehicle equipped with monster mud-tread tires. The neighborhood elite seem to have been acquiring Ford Broncos for this purpose. I talked to a Ford dealer about what would be entailed in getting an Everglades edition Bronco. No orders can be placed currently. There is no waiting list. When ordering is restarted at some unknown future date, the wait to buy one at MSRP will be approximately 18 months.
Here are the steel tube doors “for off-road use only” that the neighbors are using on the street:
In typical driving, I think this machine would be lucky to get 15 mpg and it is on target for delivery at the same time that gasoline reaches $10 per gallon. How can that be justified? Friends on Facebook who are passionate Democrats have been posting the following meme:
I think that the idea is that nobody should be upset with Presidents Biden and Harris regarding the high price of gasoline ($2.30/gallon in January 2021, at the end of the hated dictator’s rule). But we could also use the above meme to toss aside all concerns regarding climate change. As long as we have the money to buy a pavement-melting Bronco and fill it with dinosaur blood we should be “thankful” and not worry about what is happening to Mother Earth, to those who don’t have the money, etc.
Full post, including comments“Ford Will Have a ‘Pet Mode’ Similar to Tesla’s, Patent Application Shows” (Car and Driver, 2/24/2022):
Perhaps trying to compete with Tesla’s Dog mode, Ford has filed a patent application for something called Pet mode, which would allow drivers to remotely control things including windows and temperature.
Tesla started offering its Dog mode feature around four years ago as a way for drivers to make sure any animals left inside of one of the company’s EVs don’t get too hot or cold, and that passersby would see a notification that lets them know the car is comfortable for the pet.
The patent application was filed in October 2018, which tells us that Ford had the invention in its possession four years ago. The Mustang Mach-E went into production 1.5 years ago yet still has no Pet Mode, thus encouraging anyone who likes to run errands with a dog in the vehicle to purchase a Tesla instead.
Related:
Here’s a BMW M8 hero showing how to park with low-profile tires:
(Stuart, Florida)
Full post, including commentsTwo middle-aged ladies were in front of us at Lion Country Safari:
Biden/Harris, Black Lives Matter, and Eat More Kale plus an Imagine there’s no hunger license plate (proceeds to the Florida Association of Food Banks). The “UU” sticker likely is for “Unitarian Universalism”, a pro-Palestinian church (settler colonialism by Jews in Israel is bad; settler colonialism in North America is not so bad that any Unitarian Universalist church needs to give back its land to the nearest Native Americans).
The next day, we found the “Prius Eater” in the Costco parking lot:
Through the window at Lion Country Safari:
On a recent trip to Denver, I rented a $550/week “full size” car from Hertz and received a 2021 Subaru Outback station wagon. As part of the Great Falling Apart of the U.S. service industry, the vehicle was delivered only 3/4 full of gasoline. The 4-cylinder engine made alarming strained noises when pushed hard enough to merge onto I-25 (even accelerating from 0 to 35 mph on a local road sounded like it was a dramatic event for the vehicle’s innards). This is not the refined 6-cylinder powerplant of our beloved Honda Odyssey.
There is a huge touch screen in the middle of the car and, as with Tesla, a lot of essential buttons are available only within the touch screen, typically at least one or two menu touches away. Apple CarPlay is slow to establish compared to how it works on the Honda Odyssey and the entire infotainment system seems slow.
The lane departure warning system is much more active than on the Honda and generates a lot of spurious warnings, e.g., when merging onto a highway from a ramp.
Who buys these cars rather than a Honda or a Toyota?
Here’s the vehicle on I-70:
Speaking of vehicles, here’s a Ford in Idaho Springs that probably doesn’t generate any complaints regarding the touch screen or lane departure warning system:
and another Ford truck, from Beaver Liquors (near Beaver Creek), delivering supplies deemed “essential” by Colorado Covidcrats.
Of course, it is also possible to take a bus. Note the four mask-related signs in this photo of a single public transit vehicle (Vail Lionshead village):
“Rolls-Royce, Bentley, BMW Sales Surge as Cheaper Brands Lag Behind” (WSJ):
The most luxurious brands such as Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Porsche and BMW have reported record sales.
Bentley sold 14,659 cars last year, an increase of 31% from the year before and a record for the company. Porsche, also owned by VW, sold 301,915 cars, an increase of 11% world-wide. Both brands posted growth in the U.S., Europe, and China.
Rolls-Royce, owned by Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, whose tailor-made superluxury cars have starting prices of more than $300,000, sold a record 5,586 cars last year, up 49% from the year before.
Martin Fritsches, president of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Americas, told the Journal that buyers of superluxury cars like Rolls-Royce are younger today. The average age of a customer is about 43 years old, which means many of their clientele are in their 30s.
In part, Mr. Fritsches said, Rolls-Royce’s wealthy customers have been sheltered from the hardships felt by many during the pandemic. They benefited more from the economic recovery, the cryptocurrency boom and soaring stock prices. And many of the buyers are first-time Rolls owners, he said, including young entrepreneurs who got rich on the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, when we took our Honda Odyssey in for an oil change recently, the dealer had exactly 0 new Hondas in stock. If we’d wanted to replace our Odyssey it would have required paying 20% more than we paid a year ago and waiting 1-2 months.
“Global chip shortage: Everything you need to know” (TechRepublic, November 2021):
A shortage in the supply of semiconductors first hit the automotive industry during the COVID-19 pandemic and has had a cascading effect, causing global disruption. The shortage can be traced back to the first half of 2020, when overall consumer demand for cars declined during the lockdown. This forced chip manufacturers to shift their focus to other areas, such as computer equipment and mobile devices, which spiked in demand with more people working remotely.
Part of the problem is that the return on investment isn’t compelling enough to build new foundries—which cost billions of dollars and take years to construct—to satisfy the demand by automakers, according to IDC. Automakers operate in a just-in-time environment without business continuity planning, according to Mario Morales, program vice president of the semiconductor group at IDC.
After they canceled orders early on in the pandemic, disgruntled suppliers turned to other markets that were still doing well, such as consumer electronics, and automakers found themselves lower on the priority list.
I still don’t get it. A replacement for our Odyssey is at least $7,000 more than we paid for the identical vehicle in January 2021. Let’s say that Bidenflation has driven up Honda’s costs by $3,000. Assuming that Honda made a profit on our Odyssey, Honda could still pay up to $4,000 for some chips and sell Odysseys at a profit (they’d have to raise the price to dealers so that Honda recovered the $3,000 premium over sticker that the dealer is currently charging). Apple can’t pay $4,000 for the chips that go inside a $1,400 iPhone. Microsoft can’t pay $4,000 for the chips that go inside a $500 Xbox Series X. Econ 101 suggests that the car companies can outbid anyone other than the U.S. military for the chips that they want. How is it possible that integrated circuit supplies are limiting car production?
Consistent with the WSJ article, I did find a Cadillac available for immediate delivery near the Venice (FL) airport:
“Microlino EV, Adorable Two-Seater, Going into Production in Europe” (Car and Driver):
Full post, including comments“Our goal was to deliver the first vehicles to customers within the end of the year [2021], but the worldwide supply-chain chaos is affecting us like many other carmakers,” the company indicated. “Despite our preparations to order crucial parts way in advance, the situation has gotten much worse and is now affecting more and more parts. Now, even commodity parts like simple connectors for the wiring harness have become scarce and have lead times of up to 50 weeks!”
Here are some photos from a recent excursion to the Silverball Pinball Museum in Delray Beach, Florida. Statistics that folks in NY, MA, and CA are passionate about watching showed that Florida was in the midst of a raging COVID-19 plague at the time, but patrons were not discouraged nor, typically, masked.
A 1984 Space Shuttle machine reflects the period’s enthusiasm about NASA’s can-do spirit (first launch 1981, ultimate cost 250X more than planned by the best and brightest government scientists (who were following #Science)):
Here’s one from 1976 that celebrates an individual, Elton John:
What if we combine and update these ideas into a modern machine: Elon Musk!
The score is in dollars and the player’s goal is to hit $300 billion for a replay. The game follows the authoritative biography. The first challenge is to move X.com and Confinity together to form PayPal by hitting a bunch of targets. Once that is accomplished, the score goes up by $1.5 billion. The next goal is to move NASA, represented by a lumbering dinosaur, to award a contract to SpaceX. Success results in the score going up by $1.6 billion. Then there is the “build a roadster” challenge in which all of the world’s batteries have to be gathered up by endlessly repeated cycles of hitting bumpers. Once the roadster is built, the Tesla component of the score goes up by $10 billion. Plaintiff Justine Musk comes out from the sidelines to attack Elon in family court. If the player can successfully unlock the prenuptial agreement, she goes away without significantly denting the score (otherwise the player loses 50% to the plaintiff and 10% for legal fees). SolarCity is represented by an albatross and, if captured by the player, results in the score going down by $2 billion. If the ramps are used successfully, a tunnel opens up labeled “Boring Company”. A platoon of Covidcrats pops up to close the Tesla factory. If the player can hit each one with a ball “Reopen Factory and Move to Texas” mode is activated (score boost of $50 billion). Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates run in from the sidelines trying to grab the “world’s richest douche” trophy in the middle. If the player can get the ball into two traps, family court plaintiffs come out to attack both Bezos and Gates, reducing them in size by half. Bill Gates, whether or not reduced in size by half by years of family court action, comes out with a massive syringe and attempts to jab all of the other characters with a COVID-19 vaccine. If the player can get the ball to escape up a ramp, the machine enters “Knucklehead mode“.
Elizabeth Warren pops up in full Native American elder regalia. If the player can hit each feather on a headdress with the ball, Senator Karen disappears. In the “Philip the Sourpuss” special edition of the machine, 600 lb. gorillas named “Toyota”, “Honda”, “Hyundai”, “Ford”, “GM”, and “Volkswagen” come out to attack Elon with electric vehicles that cost less than whatever Tesla can produce, that are much quieter and more comfortable on the highway, and that don’t have an iPad stuck in the middle of the dashboard as the only interface. In this special edition game, there is no way to beat the gorillas and the player’s score goes to $100 billion, reflecting only the value of SpaceX.
Here’s some artwork from another machine at the same venue that can be adapted for the Elizabeth Warren segment:
Readers: What do you think of this idea for a pinball machine? Or it could also be a videogame. In general, wouldn’t it be awesome to have biography-based pinball and videogames?
Full post, including commentsIn What edge does Rivian have in the truck or EV market? (November 2021) I wondered how Rivian could be worth $127 billion, given that Ford will soon be selling electric pickups. As of today, the company is worth $78 billion and GM has promised to start delivering electric pickups in volume within two years (engadget). Like the Ford, the Chevy starts at around half of what Rivian wants for its electric pickup. If everything goes perfect, Rivian will produce a handful of trucks before Chevy pushes the Silverado EV out the door in late 2023, but why does that translate to $78 billion in long-term value? If there is $5,000 in profit to be had from each truck and we use a discount rate of 0%, Rivian needs to sell more than 15 million trucks before $78 billion in profit is generated.
The GM truck does seem better than what Rivian is offering due to the capability of extending the bed via folding back seats. And with a massive frunk it would be a pretty good family vehicle (put the stuff that is valuable and/or can’t get wet in the frunk). Why would anyone pay $67,500 for the Rivian when the “work” version of the GM can be had for $40,000?
In my opinion, the Silverado interior and dashboard seem to be better-designed than what Rivian offers. If we wanted a pickup truck we certainly wouldn’t pay extra to get a Rivian rather than a Chevy or Ford and it doesn’t seem likely that Rivian can profitably produce trucks at the Chevy or Ford price.
Can someone again please explain to me why Rivian is worth anything?
[Also, what about my faith in the Efficient Market Hypothesis? How did Rivian go down in value by 40 percent over two months? There haven’t been any surprises from the legacy car manufacturers.]
Related:
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