Category: Flying

Friends have been asking about the recent (second) Boeing 737 MAX crash (Wikipedia). I wrote some stuff about the first crash, e.g., in

• https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2018/11/11/boeing-737-crash-is-first-mass-killing-by-software/
• https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2018/11/16/boeing-737-max-8-crash-clear-tech-details/

(Summary: A single sensor going bad can cause a “runaway trim” situation from the pilot’s point of view. In theory, pilots can handle runaway trim. In practice, quite a few crashes have resulted from runaway trim.)

The latest crash has friends asking a new question: Was it normal to have a low-time pilot in the right seat? (see “Ethiopian Airlines said the pilot of Flight 302 had 8,000 hours of flying time but the co-pilot had just 200.” (nytimes))

I wrote about this question back in 2009 in “Foreign Airline Safety versus U.S. Major Airlines”:

Buttonhole any pilot in a U.S. commercial airport and you’ll learn that the major airlines hire only those pilots who have previously been captains of regional airliners or military planes. And the regional airlines, which supply most of the nation’s major airline pilots, mostly hire from among those who have been flight instructors for 750-1500 hours.

What’s changed since 2009? Following a regional turboprop crash in Buffalo, in which both pilots had more than 1,500 hours, Congress decided that they would prevent future crashes by requiring that all airline pilots have at least 1,500 hours (the possibility of the $30 million plane having 1/100th of the intelligence of a consumer drone was not considered).

Another change is that Corporate America’s passion for “diversity” enables members of official victim groups, e.g., pilots identifying as “women”, to be hired by a major airline without first flying for a regional (see https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2018/05/12/the-purported-airline-pilot-shortage/).

Back to my 2009 article:

A foreign major airline, by contrast, does not have a large pool of regional airline pilots, ex-military folks, and flight instructors from which to draw. Most foreign countries do not have an infrastructure of airports, flight schools, and private pilots. There would be no work for a flight instructor in such a country. Unless the country is very large, there won’t be any regional airlines. Due to the shortage of qualified nationals, the foreign airline may screen young people and send the most promising to flight schools in the U.S. until they are trained to the minimum legal standards. For example, Japan Airlines runs a training center in Napa, California. Lufthansa trains its pilots in Arizona. A 23-year-old who can barely speak English and barely knows how to fly can go directly to the right seat of an Airbus.

So the crew experience situation on the accident aircraft was unusual by U.S. standards, but not by the standards of European or Asian airlines.

Friends have been asking whether they should fly the B737 MAX. With about 350 delivered so far and all during the last two years, the plane is developing a worse safety record (per year, if not per flight hour) than the four/five-seat Cirrus SR22. My advice: take the Airbus, if one is available. The Airbus fly-by-wire computer-in-the-middle philosophy is to protect the aircraft and passengers from pilots who aren’t at their best, for whatever reason. (Example: Captain Sully had the yoke full back during his famous approach into the Hudson River; a B737 would have stalled and spun given that control input, but the Airbus software kept everyone safe.)

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General Aviation Manufacturer’s Association 2018 Annual Report is available. If you love numbers and love flying, this is a fascinating document.

Table 1.1 shows total piston deliveries were 1,139, less than half the recent peak of 2,755 (2006). Turboprops are actually up compared to 2007 (465 to 601). Bizjets are off from 1,317 (2008) to 703, but higher prices mean that $22 billion in total revenue is down only to about $18 billion (1.2).

The percentage of piston-powered airplanes going to Asia has doubled since 2007 while bizjet deliveries are up even more (1.3).

Gulfstream is doing quite well, with 121 jets shipped compared to a peak of 156 in 2007. Even the G280, which cannot legally be landed in most Arab countries, is pretty successful (29 delivered). Cessna, on the other hand, is down to 188 from a peak of 466 (2008). So it sort of looks like the rich are getting richer until you look at Boeing and Airbus monster bizjet sales. There were a total of only 7 delivered in 2018 compared to 27 in 2010. (Table 1.4a)

Standout successful jets are the Cirrus SF50 (63 delivered), Bombardier Challenger 350 (60 delivered), the Embraer Phenom 300 (53 delivered), and the Pilatus PC-24 (brand new, but 18 delivered). Honda delivered 37 of its relatively new jet, compared to 43 the previous year.

Pilatus delivered 80 PC-12 turboprops, down from a peak of 100 in 2009. Piper achieved an all-time record of 56 for its six-year PA-46. Textron sold 94 King Airs (off a peak of 172 in 2008) and 92 Caravans (off a peak of 107 in 2012). The TBM is enjoying record near-record sales of 50 per year.

Down in the piston ghetto… Cirrus delivered 380 planes, of which the volume leader is the SR22T (maybe this is the best version, since the prop is governed to a maximum of 2500 RPM, which should be quieter than the 2700 RPM of the SR20 and SR22). This is down from 710 planes sold in the glorious year of 2007. Cessna and Piper delivered 193 and
173 , respectively. Italy’s TECNAM actually made more planes than Piper: 180. Austrian/Canadian/Chinese Diamond is down at 134, off a peak of 471 in 2007. ICON managed to deliver 44 planes. That’s a total of 59 delivered since inception.

Airbus delivered 323 helicopters. Bell was at 245, including an astonishing 116 of the new 505. Robinson was at 316, down from a peak of 893 in 2008. It looks as though the Guimbal Cabri (priced like a four-seater; sized like a two-seater) is failing. Sales are down to 25 from a peak of 50 in 2016. Robinson managed to out-sell this purpose-built two-seat trainer with 33 R22s. Note that these numbers include military helicopter sales.

Table 1.5 is depressing. The U.S. made at least 5,000 general aviation airplanes from 1956 through 1981. During the Jimmy Carter malaise year of 1978, the factories made 17,811 planes, 17,032 of which were piston-powered. In 2018 it was 1,746, of which 829 were piston-driven. The revenue numbers (Table 1.6) show a flatter picture, even for the piston world. Cirrus’s $1 million SR22 prices are apparently helping. We’re exporting about 42 percent of our airplanes, measured in dollars.

Tables 2.2 and 2.3 show that Americans flew 140,000 aircraft approximately 7.8 million hours for personal/recreational reasons. Flight instruction occupied 16,000 aircraft for 5 million hours.

Table 2.5 shows the increasingly static society that Tyler Cowen wrote about. Despite population growth from 1980 to 2017 of 226 to 326 million, total hours flown in general aviation fell from 41,000 to 25,000.

Table 2.6 shows how much sitting on the ground planes do. The average piston-powered airplane flies only 95 hours per year, down from 130 in 2000. The average bizjet flies only 286 hours. Helicopters fly an average of 239 (piston) and 351 (turbine) hours per year. Homebuilders tinker with their planes rather than fly them (only 46 hours per year).

Table 2.9 shows that getting environmentalists to Davos in their Gulfstreams uses a lot of dinosaur blood. Piston fuel consumption is down from 333 million gallons in 2000 to 210 million in 2017. Jet fuel, on the other hand, has gone from 972 million gallons up to 1535 million.

The average age of a single-engine piston airplane is 46 years and 44 for a piston multi. Average jets are 16 years old. (2.11)

General aviation is making less use of Air Traffic Control. Operations at towered airports fell from 38.4 million in 1992 to 27.7 million in 2017.

The U.S. pilot numbers have fallen from 702,659 (5.77 percent women) in 1990 to 633,318 (7.34 percent women; 42,127 of whom may live outside of the U.S.) in 2018. U.S. population, meanwhile, grew from 250 million to 330 million. Holding a pilot certificate is becoming more unusual. (6.1)

The average age of all pilots is not rising as fast as one might expect from hanging around a GA airport. It was 41.9 in 1994 and is 44.9 today (essentially steady since 2012).

The busiest GA airports: KDVT (Deer Valley, AZ), KAPA (Denver), KHWO (Florida), KTMB (Tamiami, Florida), KGFK (University of North Dakota), KVNY (Van Nuys, California). The obvious suspects such as Teterboro are not on the list (7.3).

Even as the U.S. adds population, we are losing public airports, down slightly from 5,288 (2004) to 5,119 (2016).

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Readers: Who has some good ideas for air shows this year? My personal favorite, the Rhode Island Air Show, has been canceled (NBC) :

“Hundreds of key National Guard members will be called to federal duty overseas in support of the RING’s primary mission of national defense,” a news release said.

“With this anticipated federal mobilization commitment in 2019, we have been presented with a difficult decision regarding our ability to safely and effectively conduct this public event. The volume, timing, and the particular trained skill sets of the more than 500 Soldiers and Airmen who will be away during the traditional timeframe of the Open House Air Show presents a unique challenge,” Maj. Gen. Christopher Callahan said in a statement. “Ultimately, we could neither compromise the training and support of those being deployed, nor the planning and conducting of our Open House Air Show. As such, we regrettably must forego the event in 2019.”

So New Englanders are out of luck, particular considering what a total Charlie-Foxtrot the Westover show is (see https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2018/07/13/great-new-england-air-show-this-weekend-at-westover/ ).

Excited about a female pilot flying a fighter plane (like Hannah Reitsch?) in a tight pattern around the runway? You’re out of luck there too: “Zoe Kotnik: First female F-16 demo commander out after two weeks” (BBC)

Here are some ideas:

• April 6-7: Blue Angels in Lakeland, FL at Sun & Fun (Oshkosh Lite)
• May 4-5: Blue Angels at Ft. Lauderdale Air Show (on the beach, so all roads lead to the show!)
• May 25-26: Blue Angels at Miami Beach Air and Sea Show (same deal; how much worse can the traffic be than usual for Miami?)
• June 15-16: Blue Angels at Ocean City (Maryland) Air Show
• June 29-30: Thunderbirds in Traverse City, Michigan
• July 22-28: Airventure at Oshkosh; air show every afternoon and two evenings!
• August 21: Thunderbirds at the Atlantic City (NJ) Air Show
• August 24-25: Blue Angels at KSWF (New York; good for New Englanders); Thunderbirds in Rochester, NY (proceed to Niagara Falls after?)
• August 31-September 1: Blue Angels in Nova Scotia (how bad can the crowds be?)
• September 14-15: Thunderbirds at the Reno Air Races (could an F-16 beat a Glasair?)
• October 5-6: Thunderbirds in San Juan, Puerto Rico (if you’re escaping AOC’s income tax and Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax (payable in wampum?) to enjoy a tax-free lifestyle)
• October 19-20: Blue Angels in Jacksonville Beach; Red Bull Air Race in Indianapolis (only US location)

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AOPA Magazine’s March 2019 issue has an article on the bureaucratic saga of converting a U.S. pilot certificate to a European license:

That completed, I embarked on a 5-month process of extensive interaction with the CAA, sending mountains of paperwork and forms back and forth, ultimately finding that the U.K. CAA is at the moment in a state of disarray. Many items had to be chased through a bureaucratic nightmare, finally resulting in the issuance of my European private pilot license an astonishing five months after the checkride.

In all, the process took 16 months, and cost $4,061; it involved three airline flights, and activities in three countries. Only a few hours of cost involved time piloting an airplane, with the rest related to machinations of paperwork, travel, and onerous fees. The most challenging part was that no single party had an answer on how to proceed, leaving more detective work than I ever imagined to ensure legal compliance.

This tends to support my friend’s theory that regulatory compliance is our modern religion. He notes that folks in the Middle Ages spent a lot of time praying in church and observing rituals. Most Americans and Europeans don’t do that anymore, but they put the same amount of time and effort into filling out forms, reading up on tax law, etc.

Let this be a warning to pilots who said that they would emigrate if Trump were elected… and are still working on the practical details.

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Here’s a Piper Malibu landing at Courchevel (1,762′): videos. The typical Malibu pilot is experienced and well-trained, so this supports my theory that we should all use FAR 121 minimums and go to runways in which the book landing length is no more than 60 percent of the actual runway length.

Even a good pilot can have a bad day.

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On a recent trip through Logan Airport, I found a celebration of recycling: artwork made from 1500 lbs of collected plastic. This was right in front of de-icing fluid being sprayed on aircraft that will burn 1500 lbs of jet fuel in the first 15 minutes of the climb.

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(Folks who are passionate about gender equality will be dismayed to learn that 100 percent of the de-icing workers, who enjoy fresh breezes and freezing rain for much of the winter, seemed to identify as just one gender.)

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The U.S. government-produced video running behind the replica Wright Flyer at the Wright Brothers National Memorial shows the arc of aviation starting at Kill Devil Hills and ending with U.S. government-run programs such as the Blue Angels, the USAF, and NASA. All advances occur within the U.S. Entirely left out: the importance of the Wright Brothers’ time in France (the U.S. government was initially unreceptive to the Wrights); the first modern airplane (Bleriot, in France); the British invention of the jet engine (led by Frank Whittle); the jet-powered commercial airlines and airfreight services that have enabled our global economy:

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Note the two propellers driven by one engine. What kind of rating would be necessary to fly that today? It is not “multi-engine” per se, but what if the drive to one prop fails? It would yaw just like a multi-engine plane on a single engine.

[Also potentially interesting: in the official government history of aviation, after Wilbur and Orville Wright completed their 1903 flights all of the notable advances were made by women. In the photos above, for example, Bessie Coleman is important enough to cite by name while the Tuskegee Airmen appear in an anonymous group (thanks for your 1578 combat missions, though!). Olga Custodio, the “First Latina to complete US Air Force pilot training,” is cited on the “Inventors” screen (Wikipedia does not credit her with any inventions). Amelia Earhart is featured (why not Jacqueline Cochrane instead?) and also Louise Thaden (from Bentonville, Arkansas, now an important center of aviation thanks to the Walton family). Sad: Kalpana Chawla is cited as the “first woman of Indian origin in space” (she was killed due to incompetent group decision-making (by government workers) in the foam-damaged shuttle Columbia).]

The wing-shaped stone monument started in 1928 is awesome: “Conceived by Genius; Achieved by Dauntless Resolution…”

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The North Carolina state government set up its own monument in 2003: a life-size bronze sculpture by Stephen H. Smith of the team launching the first flight. Photography nerds will appreciate the bronze view camera!

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The original takeoff and landing locations from December 17, 1903 are marked with impressive stones and engravings. Example:

[I wonder if these locations are approximate, though. There was no GPS back in those days. I don’t think the Wright Brothers bothered to make a careful survey of the sandy/scrubby field and then leave permanent survey monuments behind for future generations.]

AOPA members will appreciate seeing their dues put to good use in a pilot lounge built next to the adjacent 3,000′ KFFA runway. But how well does requiring secret pilot knowledge to get in work in the age of LTE and Google?

The surrounding area reflects a world changed more by the automobile than the airplane. The Wright Brothers had to seek help from the guys manning the local U.S. Life-Saving Service station (merged into Coast Guard in 1915) as the local population was only about 300. Today if they needed big guys to lug a glider up a dune they could wander over to the adjacent Try My Nuts and Duck Donuts. From the top of the dune one can see a wide strip of houses, stores, condos, etc. stretching to the horizon in both directions. U.S. population has grown a little more than 4X since 1903, but the summer population of Kill Devil Hills is more than 100X larger than it was in 1903. Nearly all of these folks arrive by car.

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In a room of about 70 people at MIT (mixture of undergrad, grad, and alum), I asked how many thought that Captain Sully had another pilot up front with him in the Airbus A320 that landed on the Hudson.

A few hands went up.

“What was his name?”

Blank stares. One student seemed to be struggling and then came out with something that sounded almost like “Jeff Skiles“.

I gave him $20 on behalf of current and former First Officers.

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