Me on 20/20 tomorrow night

ABC News interviewed me today for a 20/20 show that will air Friday (tomorrow) evening (10 pm Eastern). The topic was to what extent a mentally ill pilot can continue to work for an airline (previous posting on the subject) with some background on how pilots are screened and medically evaluated. I fear the by the time it is all edited there will be demands for more FAA regulation in an attempt to keep everyone perfectly safe (who can argue against that?). I wish that I had said that we are all our brother’s keeper to some extent. So yes either of the two people up front in a modern jet could send us into the ground (even just through incompetence!), but at the same time the safety record of airlines shows that our faith in our fellow men and women is not misplaced. And I did note that how can you be sure that the 17-year-old in the 6000 lb. SUV next to you on the highway is in a good mental place?

[Separately, I learned a few things about network broadcast journalism. ABC News captures in 720p on the theory that this somehow results in fewer motion artifacts for sports than 1080p. They used Sony cameras and Sennheiser and Lectrosonics wireless mics for this project. The crew consists of talent (Ryan Smith, a former attorney), a producer, a more senior producer listening from New York (via speakerphone tucked into the cameraman’s jacket), a cameraman, a sound engineer following behind the cameraman connected by cables (a camel-like arrangement). The idea was initially to film at Hanscom Field, a taxpayer-owned airport managed by Massport, but Massport management and media relations refused to allow ABC News onto the field (sort of odd that the public’s access to publicly owned property has been reduced in this manner, but this seems to be Massport’s general rule based on previous requests; this is an especially large reduction because at one time there were some TV station helicopters actually based on the field and therefore media were permitted to be present 24×7; I’m wondering how much of the rest of what happens in the U.S. is now walled off from the public by image-conscious government agencies.) So we flew over to a friend’s hangar at KLWM, a city-owned airport where they don’t have enough staff on the payroll to hassle journalists being escorted by hangar tenants. It took about 2 hours to get what will likely turn out to be 3 minutes of broadcast footage.]

Update: I heard from the producer that the story might end up on a different night and/or on Nightline.

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Around the world in 1964

Inspired by meeting Matt Guthmiller, the youngest pilot ever to fly around the world, I’ve decided to dip into the classic around-the-world aviation literature. Three-Eight Charlie has been a $100 collectible until the 50th anniversary of this 1964 flight came around and now it is a $3 Kindle book. Jerrie Mock did the trip in 1964 in a Cessna 180 taildragger with no deicing gear. Mock had a Private certificate and a fresh instrument rating. Her 11-year-old plane was equipped with an autopilot but no deicing gear. What about the single engine in an age before CNC machine tools made everything mechanical more reliable?

It never hurts to have an extra. Except for engines. On a long flight, where the plane is overloaded, if one engine of a twin were to quit, a second one wouldn’t do much good. The average light twin isn’t much good at maintaining altitude when it’s loaded down …

The Cessna’s cabin tanks were full of gas, and the plane must have weighed almost 3,400 pounds—a lot more than the 2,500 pounds that it was normally licensed for. My ferry permit, from the U.S. Federal Aviation Agency, made the flight legal, but not necessarily safe. …

The autopilot does not seem to have been digital…

It was a funny feeling to sit there in the middle of the clouds, with nothing to look at beyond the red nose of the Cessna and know that the gyroscopes and pneumatic valves and bellows in the autopilot would take me safely to my destination.

Radio communications and navigation were in some ways the same 50 years ago and also completely different. Voice-over-VHF was used when reasonably near an airport, e.g., 50 miles away. Finicky HF was used when out over the ocean. VORs were new and ADFs were standard. The idiot-proof GPS and moving map was 30 years in the future. Mock was thus often lost:

[when flying from the Midwest to Bermuda on the first leg] I turned on the ADFs (Automatic Direction Finder) and tuned them to the Bermuda beacon. I was surprised and delighted to pick up a weak signal. I had hoped for long-range reception, but hadn’t really thought I could get a station this far away. But now what? The needles of the two sets were pointing 60 degrees apart! Which one was giving me a true bearing to the station?

Well, the number-one ADF hadn’t been disturbed, as far as I knew, so I decided to trust it. I wondered which direction the wind was blowing the plane. I knew I had a westerly tail wind, but was it from the southwest, west, or northwest? I was to have received that information from Kindley, but that was impossible without the HF radio.

Mock makes it to the Azores:

Then I noticed that the plane seemed to be slowing up. The airspeed had dropped off a little. Not much—but why? Was the plane climbing? No, it had lost altitude! I pushed in the throttle for more power. Was something wrong with the engine? Did I have carburetor ice? No. The engine instruments showed the proper amount of rpm and manifold pressure. And I was using enough carburetor heat to keep the Richter carburetor air temperature gauge in the green, indicating ice couldn’t form. Maybe I had forgotten to retrim the plane. I shut off the autopilot to see if that made any difference. No, the autopilot was OK. But something was certainly wrong. Even with the increased power, the plane didn’t want to hold altitude. And then I had a frightening thought. Ice! I found a flashlight and turned its beam on the strut outside my door. Ice! About an inch of it clung to the leading edge of the strut. Undoubtedly, as much, or more, would also be on the wings, although I couldn’t see them from inside the plane.

Where was Santa Maria? Ah, the beacon! “Three-Eight Charlie is over Sierra Mike Alfa.” I was cleared to make an ADF approach. I hoped I could remember how to do it. As I was making my procedural turn and starting inbound to the airport, I had a vague feeling that the headings were off a little. The compass maybe? Fortunately, the beacon was on the airport.

“Three-Eight Charlie. Don’t hit the mountains.” The controller sounded a little nervous.

If the Air Force men had been up all night, waiting for me, they showed no signs of weariness. I wished I looked as wide awake. One of the officers was General Boylan, and he explained that they had flown over from Lajes Air Force Base, on Terceira Island, about 150 miles away. He had a message from Gen. Robert Strauss at Lockbourne Air Force Base in Columbus. So! All this special attention from the Air Force was Bob Strauss’s work! General Boylan informed me that the ceiling had been one hundred feet when I landed. I didn’t tell him it was the first instrument approach I had ever made without an instructor.

So far I’ve only followed Mock to Casablanca but I’m enjoying the book as a reminder of just how adventurous some people were back in the old days.

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Nikon stomps all over Canon yet again

The cruel lab rats at DxOMark have completed a test of the latest Nikon D5500 APS-C SLR. The comparison page shows that you would have to be suffering from a serious vision impairment to want to purchase a Canon 70D. The Nikon offers 2.5 f-stops more dynamic range (ability to capture both shadows and highlights in the same photo). The Nikon also has somewhat better low-light performance. The Canon SLR scores about as well as a Sony pocket-sized point and shoot camera.

Who wants to take a crack at explaining how Canon continues to be the market leader in higher-end digital cameras? (press release)

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How much work is done by Americans who don’t work?

If you read the news you learn that hardly anyone in America has any money, except for a few rich overlords. If you go to the mall you can’t find a parking space because the place is so clogged with BMW and Mercedes SUVs; if you want to interview a lower-middle class person you have to persuade them to hang up their iPhone. Economists Anat Bracha and Mary A. Burke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston chip away at this discrepancy with “Informal Work Activity in the United States: Evidence from Survey Responses.” It turns out that people whom the BLS characterizes as “unemployed” actually perform paid work about 15 hours per month.

The authors win this month’s Mark Twain* Prize for Understatement: “By informal work we refer to temporary or occasional side jobs from which earnings are presumably not reported in full to the Internal Revenue Service…”

This paper may be worth reading in conjunction with The Redistribution Recession: How Labor Market Distortions Contracted the Economy in which the author catalogs all of the means-tested government benefits that an unemployed or marginally employed person stands to lose if that person has earnings that are reported to the IRS. (And of course, an alimony or child support plaintiff may also suffer a reduction in non-wage income if IRS income increases, thus making informal work relatively more attractive.) Casey Mulligan, the author of The Redistribution Recession, points out that some government programs create a greater-than-100-percent marginal tax rate for low-income Americans (i.e., if they had additional formal W-2 income of $X they would lose more than $X in means-tested benefits).

* Twain said: “James Ross Clemens, a cousin of mine, was seriously ill two or three weeks ago in London, but is well now. The report of my illness grew out of his illness; the report of my death was an exaggeration.” (often misquoted as “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”)

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Can I buy individual health insurance except through Obamacare or the Massachusetts equivalent?

Folks:

I find myself in an embarrassing Ted Cruz-style situation. I need to get new health insurance. It is just for me and not through a company group. Does this mean that as a person who has advocated against Obamacare and against the idea of health insurance in general (except perhaps for accidents/catastrophic illnesses that are rare) I will now be forced to be become an Obamacare customer? Or is there in fact a way for a Massachusetts resident to purchase health insurance now other than through the Massachusetts Health Connector? (and maybe I can’t even do that because the “open enrollment” period is over? I was previously covered on the employer policy of the household member who slaves away in the corporate salt mines but she changed jobs recently and her new employer won’t cover me)

Thanks in advance for any ideas!

[Recap: Why do I advocate against health insurance? The American vet care system works quite well. Few animals are insured, which means most care is paid for with a Visa card. Your dog gets a same-day appointment with no waiting time. The prices can be painful but can be as little as 1/10th of what you’d be quoted for the same service rendered to a human. As far as I know, the insurance company doesn’t get a secret discount to pay only 1/5th or 1/20th of what is quoted to a retail customer. It simply doesn’t make sense to insure against a risk that is virtually 100% certain to occur (e.g., against the risk of having to go to a doctor for a checkup).]

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Guy with a “Whites Only” sign in his conference room tells others not to discriminate

Friends on Facebook have been linking to Tim Cook’s editorial in the Washington Post. Apparently it makes people feel good to “click up” and say “I too oppose discrimination.” This is an act that Mr. Cook says “takes courage.”

Whom is Tim Cook fighting? The ignorant masses in Indiana and Arkansas (and 18 other states), whom he claims are likely to put up “Whites Only” signs on their shop doors. Why is this so upsetting? Cook apparently strongly believes that “Whites Only” signs (Helvetica font) should be restricted to Apple’s executive offices (check out the faces of the folks in operational roles).

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Recommendations for building a new PC

Folks:

It is time to replace my 4.5-year-old HP desktop PC. Here’s what I will use the machine for, in order of declining memory and CPU requirements:

  • running Google Chrome to view programmed-by-typical JavaScripters Web pages (could not be done in 16 GB of RAM but works with 24 GB)
  • Adobe Acrobat (sometimes requires 200% of machine’s total resources)
  • editing video with Adobe Premiere (has been 1080p; soon will be 4K)
  • editing photos with Google Picasa (Google seems to have deprecated this awesome Windows native application in favor of their crummy Google+ browser-based photo tools, so I might have to revert back to Adobe Lightroom or Bridge)
  • Microsoft Office (expert witness work for lawyers who just love Word; sometimes Excel)
  • cygwin Unix shell tools

Some hardware requirements:

  • drive two 4K monitors (maybe this LG)
  • hold about 1 TB on an SSD (guard against Patience Deficit Disorder)
  • have a built-in reader for CF and SD cards
  • have about 12 USB ports built in (not a deal-killer, but I am sick of monkeying with external hubs)

What do the experts recommend? Driving two 4K monitors but not playing games is perhaps the strangest requirement. I don’t want high-end video cards with fans taken off an old Boeing 707. As noted in an earlier posting, I’m not happy about the fact that typical chipsets allow for only 32 GB of RAM. I don’t think I will be too happy 4.5 years from now with what will then be $50 worth of RAM in my primary computer (32 GB today is $222 so by Moore’s Law should be around $100 in two years and $50 in four years).

Dell’s highest end home computer seems to be Alienware Area-51, stuck at a maximum of 32 GB of RAM (previous posting on laptops stuck at 16 GB). Dell also offers only feeble 512 GB SSDs for this machine. HP seems to be stuck in a similar situation. Do I have to imprison a local teenage gamer and make him build me a PC from Newegg parts? This ASUS motherboard at least supports 64 GB of RAM. These gamers suggest that 128 GB is within reach on ASUS non-server motherboards (start out with 24 GB today in three slots and populate the remaining five slots when JavaScripters figure out how to make Chrome unusable in 24 GB of RAM).

Final question: Is this the wrong time to be building a PC? Is Intel about to ship a new generation of everything? I know that Microsoft is soon going to deliver Windows 10, which will end the conflicts in the Middle East and make it feel natural to reach across a keyboard to use a non-Android, non-iOS touch interface.

Separately… what to do with my old HP 30″ 2560×1600 monitor (ZR30w)? Can a Dell Chromebox drive it? Supposedly the Chromebox has a DisplayPort output and that is sufficient, but the resolution is no longer a standard.

Thanks in advance!

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Air Canada Halifax Crash (a non-precision approach)

Friends have been asking me about the short-of-the-runway crash of an Airbus A320 at Halifax this morning. This article says that the pilots were trying to land on Runway 5 (oriented northeast; reasonably appropriate for the wind at the time). fltplan.com shows that the most likely approach to Runway 5 for an airliner is a “non-precision” approach without vertical guidance. These tend to be trickier to fly than a standard ILS. (I have written about the dangers of these approaches in an article on instrument flying.) Most U.S. airlines and, I think, Canadian charter and scheduled operators, are required to try to turn non-precision approaches into quasi-precision ones. The pilots calculate a rate of descent that should keep the plane on a reasonably stabilized glidepath toward the runway. If they don’t see the runway when 100′ above the minimum descent altitude, they add power and go somewhere else. When I flew regional jets for Comair/Delta we called this “CANPA” (constant angle non-precision approach) as distinct from the “dive and drive” technique that the FAA traditionally promulgates. This article by a Gulfstream pilot does a great job of explaining the alternatives.

It is atypical to have to do a non-precision approach in the airline world. Most big airports have instrument landing systems (ground-based radio beacons providing left-right and up-down guidance) on the frequently used runways.

It is atypical to crash an airliner. But crashes are more common following non-precision approaches (a classic one). That it was dark, late, windy, and snowy probably did not help.

[The airport has a precision “GPS/LPV” approach to the same runway. These can be flown very straightforwardly in a light aircraft by upgrading the $10,000 GPS. But the forest of regulation around the equipment that goes into an airliner could make an upgrade to handle these kinds of approaches cost closer to $1 million per plate. The professional pilots in this forum talking about the accident suggest that Air Canada does not have this kind of capability, which has been standard in little airplanes for about 6 years.]

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Frontline/Advantix/Seresto for humans?

The snow will soon be melted here in Boston. This means we will soon be able to start pulling ticks out of our skin. Mindy the Crippler is doubly armored against these pests. She has been vaccinated against Lyme disease (the human equivalent of this vaccine was pulled off the market about 10 years ago). She wears a Seresto collar that drips poison into her body.

The various systemic anti-tick chemicals that we have been applying to dogs for 20+ years seem not to have done them any harm. Why can’t we Frontline ourselves? I would happily pay for a human version.

[Separately, whenever anyone in Cambridge asks about Mindy the Crippler’s behavior I say “All of her bad habits started after she was vaccinated.”]

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Ellen Pao v. Kleiner Perkins wrap-up

The jury has returned and Kleiner Perkins is not guilty of sex discrimination.

How is it possible to lose a lawsuit like this in one of the most plaintiff-friendly jurisdictions in the world? As noted in my previous postings (first; second), it was hard to explain why the partners of Kleiner Perkins wanted to make themselves poorer by promoting an unqualified man in favor of a qualified woman. Discrimination of any kind might make sense for a manager at a government agency. His or her salary won’t change if less qualified or productive people are hired to fill jobs. His or her customers cannot be wooed away by a more efficient competitor. But almost anyone should be able to understand that for a VC partnership, indulging in discrimination will personally cost the partners. In addition, Pao had the “bad fact” of the affair with the married co-worker, a circumstance that most people can understand might lead to on-the-job problems.

Why did people think that this case was strong? My theory is that American journalists and pundits, nearly all of whom have no technical education or experience with industry that depends on engineering, simply wanted to write about gender discrimination. Here’s an example from Forbes: “Cracking The Boys Club: Jenny Lee On What It Means To Be The Top Woman In Venture Capital” (March 25, 2015). Forbes talks about VC being a “boys club” (headline) and implies that the U.S. VC world is not “open to female venture capitalists”. These statements are directly contradicted by the woman who is supposedly the subject of the piece. The interviewee, who actually some experience with venture capital and engineering, says that VC “is capitalism at its ultimate. To do well you have to understand this point. No one is going to be nice to you because of your age, or where you come from or your gender. The VC industry is about survival of the fittest, and that’s the same mindset we give to our entrepreneurs.” When pressed as to why there are few female VCs she points out that less than 10 percent of her engineering class at Cornell were female.

Plainly Ms. Pao would be close to $200 million richer today if the jury had been 12 journalists from the New York Times and other publications that reported on the case as though the guilt of Kleiner Perkins had been established prior to trial. Denied a place in the jury box, what are these folks writing now? That this lawsuit was somehow useful in “starting a conversation.” None of the articles about how great this is for the nation mention the fact that it had to cost Kleiner Perkins at least $10 million in legal fees and distraction/time. That would have been enough to fully fund 100 women to get engineering bachelor’s degrees and join the STEM workforce that Barack Obama and the New York Times editorial board say is a good place for people other than themselves (previous posting). Which advances the cause of women in engineering more, 100 women with engineering degrees or a conversation that starts “So the flight attendant on the $65 million Gulfstream was pouring Champagne for me but I couldn’t enjoy it because some douchebag on the far end of the cabin was talking about the Playboy Mansion…”?

The story that did not seem to capture the media’s or the public’s attention was “Just how much litigation can one couple generate here in the U.S.?” According to this this summary article and this WSJ piece, Pao and her husband, Buddy Fletcher, have put lawyers to work on at least the following matters:

  • should Buddy Fletcher’s race discrimination case against Kidder Peabody be heard in court or in arbitration?
  • how much cash should Buddy Fletcher get from Kidder Peabody as a result of having been black?
  • how much investor cash did Buddy Fletcher steal from his hedge fund?
  • did fellow co-op owners at The Dakota refuse to approve his acquisition of an apartment because they thought that he was black or thought that he would soon have no money? (2011 lawsuit)
  • should Buddy Fletcher be fined or imprisoned by the government? (taxpayer-funded Justice Department and SEC investigations)
  • should some of Buddy Fletcher’s, uh, “buddies” (affiliated companies/shells/etc.) have to repay various investors, including some state pension funds?
  • how annoying do your fellow passengers on a private jet have to be before you can say that you would rather have flown JetBlue?
  • if you sue your partners do they still have to greet you enthusiastically every morning when you show up to the office? (the retaliation claim of the lawsuit, which I am surprised that Pao did not prevail on)

The New York Post says that the overdue fees in just one of Fletcher’s cases are $2.7 million. Let’s assume that the Dakota case is the simplest, $1 million in total fees. Let’s assume the Kidder Peabody case ran up fees on both sides slightly larger than the ultimate payout to Fletcher: another $2 million. The hedge fund debacle, including what the taxpayers are incurring, maybe $20 million in fees? Then count both sides of the Pao case against Kleiner at $15 million? That’s a total of roughly $40 million in legal fees…. for the cases we actually have heard about. How much litigation is that if you go to a country with a more streamlined legal system? We just finished interviewing a Germany divorce litigator. She told us that fees in a custody lawsuit come from a table published by the court. Each side’s attorney can charge 773.50 euro. That’s $842 per side or $1684 in total to decide a case. So Pao and Fletcher have personally generated as much work for attorneys as 23,753 German couples who fight over custody. Germany has a divorce rate of about 2/1000 and a population of 80 million. That works out to 160,000 divorces per year. If we assume that half of those involve minor children and that a third of the couples with children actually fight over custody. Thus Pao and Fletcher have generated more work for attorneys than the entire divorcing-with-children population of Germany, a country in which it is impossible to get divorced without lawyers and courts (i.e., they don’t have an administrative process as might be used by Danes or Swedes).

[You might ask why it is reasonable to assume that only a third of divorcing German couples with children would have a custody fight. First, the potential cash profit from obtaining custody of a child in Germany is limited to about $6000/year (compare to $72,000/year for the top of the Utah guidelines, for example, or the unlimited amounts available in California, Wisconsin, etc.). The government doesn’t hold out the same financial incentives to fight as most U.S. states. Second, the outcome is pretty easy to predict. The attorney that we interviewed said that she, after practicing for 12 years, has never been involved in a contested custody case in which the father prevailed. Very likely the percentage is smaller, in which case Pao and Fletcher have driven enough legal fees to pay for all of the custody lawsuits in Germany plus a lot more!]

Note that the couple managed to run up all of these legal bills without ever (1) investing money productively for investors, (2) delivering a service to consumers, or (3) designing or engineering a product.

What do readers think? What will be the long-term effect, if any, of this lawsuit? And what happens to Ellen Pao now? Does she (a) pull a Judy Faulkner by starting her own company and getting crazy rich by doing a better job than competitors? (okay, and also getting the federal government to force customers to buy the product; sometimes it is fun to ask “Imagine how much richer and more successful Faulkner would have been if she had been a white man.”), (b) become a reality TV celebrity like Kim Kardashian?, or (c) something else?

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