Is Joe Biden the American Hugo Chavez?

by philg

A leader introduces bold Bigger Government policies. The economy deteriorates. Violent crime rates rise. Inflation rages. Even for those with money, there are shortages. Voters express their undiminished love for the leader under whom they’ve become poorer affirmed his leadership at the polls.

Who did this the best? Hugo Chavez! (see Hugo Chavez: Great politician; poor administrator for how the only thing that kept Hugo Chavez from winning more elections was his death from cancer in 2013)

If Hugo Chavez is the master, let’s check in regarding the apprentice. From the NYT:

“the best midterms of any president in 20 years” in what certainly is not the best economic environment or crime rate trend environment of the past 20 years. The article is also interesting because the purportedly neutral journalists characterize Biden’s borrow-and-spend schemes as “accomplishments”:

“I’m not going to change,” he said. While open to cooperation with Republicans, he defiantly said he would block any efforts by the opposition to unravel the accomplishments of his first two years. “I have a pen that can veto,” he said, making a signing motion with his hand.

Not “What he claims as his accomplishments” but verified-by-the-NYT accomplishments.

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The only defense against mass tourism is to become a mass tourist?

by philg

In observance of Veterans Day, let’s look at the territory that the Greatest Generation fought for in the 1940s…

In the old days there was a tradeoff between being an independent tourist and joining an organized tour. As an independent tourist perhaps you wouldn’t see as many things per day, but you could wander around a city and enter museums and other attractions as the whim struck you. Today, however, due to mass tourism combined with a touch of coronapanic, the headline tourist sites of Europe require booking advance reservations and organizing transportation to arrive on time for those reservations. In other words, the independent tourist now needs to do all of the stuff that a tour company ordinarily does. Three weeks in advance, for example, we tried booking a ride to the top of the Eiffel Tower. Everything was sold out (we eventually got onto a guided tour for 3X the price, but let’s not call it scalping!). The Louvre was sold out a week in advance. Some of this can be navigated around via memberships (Amis du Louvre) or a Paris Museum Pass. But I’m wondering if the best defense against mass tourism is to become a mass tourist (if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em). An organized tour of Paris could hit all of the major sites in a three days and the participants wouldn’t have to spend evenings pre-booking on the Web and then fretting about how to get from one reservation to another. If desired, spend a couple of extra days as independent tourists seeing the second- and third-tier sites.

Here’s our Eiffel Tower experience. Because we had to book it weeks in advance, it fell on the only rainy day of our trip:

I guess we shouldn’t complain about the lines. If not for the combat veterans of World War II and the desk veterans who kept them supplied, we might have needed to learn German to visit the Eiffel Tower.

Related:

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Taking kids to the Louvre

by philg

I’m leaving this here as a reminder to my future self.

One month before any trip to the Louvre: join Amis du Louvre (Adhérent) to get a membership for however many adults are in your household (kids are free). The cards will be mailed out and then you can skip the lines at the Pyramid and other places. You might be able to talk your way in from the Passage Richelieu or Carrousel (underground mall) entrance if you say that you’re going to buy a membership. With the membership, you don’t need to get a timed ticket and then wait in line for 30 minutes to use that time slot.

Once in the Pyramid, skip the Nintendo-based audioguides, which are complex and confusing (and the commentary is limited to a handful of works and isn’t very interesting).

Enter via Richelieu and the French sculptures, especially the Barye animal fights.

Upstairs to Napoleon III’s lavish crib.

Upstairs again to the two Vermeers (one was in Abu Dhabi; one here). Here’s how much demand there was at 1 pm on a weekday to see a painting not called “Mona Lisa”:

Then the huge Rubens salon and walk through French painting to see if the battle scenes catch their eye.

Finally to the Mona Lisa room, which should be revisited on a Friday night around 9 pm if anyone actually wants to see the painting. Note the surgical mask as protection against aerosol viruses in the most crowded room of the world’s most visited art museum (at least 15,000 visitors per day). Fortunately, the ventilation system was upgraded in the 50s… the 1850s.

A mostly-European crowd in which we see reliance on masks, typically mere surgical or cloth ones:

In other kid news, ours enjoyed this stinky cheese from the supermarket:

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Why did 1 million poor people vote against a higher tax rate for rich people in Massachusetts?

by philg

People in Maskachusetts say that they’re “progressive”. Very few earn more than $1 million per year. Why, then, did more than 1.1 million people vote “no” on a constitutional amendment that would allow the state to ding the rich (more than $1 million/year in income) at a 9% rate instead of the 5% flat rate that prevails for the peasantry?

“Massachusetts passes Ballot Question 1 (Millionaire’s tax), AP says” (MassLive):

We are informed that it is only Republicans and married white women who are so stupid that they vote against their own interests. There are hardly any Republicans in Maskachusetts and a lot of the married white women have taken advantage of the state’s no-fault divorce system to head for a profitable exit. This ballot measure should have passed by at least a 30-point margin, not a 4-point margin.

How can we explain the race being close? How could so many peasants be against rich people getting closer to paying their fair share? (which actually should be at least 13.3% because that’s what rich people in California pay for state income tax)

It can’t be because people were concerned that inflation would lift them from the old 5% bracket into the new 9% one. The text of the ballot question explains that there will be annual inflation adjustments.

Separately, this was a great outcome for the luxury real estate industry in Florida! Rich bastards will need to pull up stakes in MA before the end of December 2022 if they object to paying their fair share. (See Relocation to Florida for a family with school-age children )

Finally, the tax bump won’t be great for alimony defendants. “New Guidance on the Intersection of Alimony and Child Support” (Burns Levinson law firm, August 2022), quotes the law: “the amount of alimony should be determined with reference to the recipient spouse’s need for support to allow the spouse to maintain the lifestyle enjoyed prior to the termination of the parties’ marriage.” Alimony is now tax-free to the plaintiff and not deductible for the defendant. since most couples spend close to 100 percent of their income, the only way for a divorce plaintiff to enjoy the marital lifestyle is to collect close to 100 percent of the defendant’s income). So in setting the order, the judge has to make some assumptions about what tax rate the defendant will pay in order to figure out what the after-tax income is and make sure not to order the defendant to pay more than 100 percent of income. A high-income defendant in Massachusetts will have less after-tax income, but the court order to pay based on the old tax scheme can’t be changed without the defendant starting a “modification” lawsuit that could take years and cost $millions in fees to resolve.

Related:

  • Colorado FF, a proposition to hit those earning more than $300,000 per year with a stealth higher tax rate by reducing the deductions they can claim (it passed because lots of folks earning less than $300,000 per year voted for it!)
  • Effect on children’s wealth when parents move to Florida (kids end up about 40% richer if a parent moves south and clings to life for 30 additional years)
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Important firsts from election night

by philg

There have been plenty of “lesbian” state governors in the past, apparently, but this is the first time a “lesbian woman” has prevailed in a race: (NYT):

From the West Coast (Advocate):

Also from the NYT:

Readers: What else have you found as historic firsts?

In other post-election analysis news:

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Checking our predictions for the Ron DeSantis-Charlie Crist race in Florida

by philg

In Democrats love elderly white guys, Florida edition (August 24), I predicted a 56:44 victory for Ron DeSantis in yesterday’s election. Ray, in the comments, predicted a 6 percent margin for DeSantis. How did we do?

The voters, including all of the new ones driven into Florida by Andrew Cuomo and other Lockdown Governors, have spoken. The all-abortion-care-all-the-time campaign of Charlie Crist resonated with only 40 percent of Floridians whose votes were not suppressed. NYT:

Ron DeSantis won by 1.5 million votes, a big improvement over the 50,000-vote margin he had in 2018 over Andrew Gillum.

Charlie Crist gave a “good congratulations to Governor DeSantis on his re-election” (YouTube). Prior to the election, Crist characterized DeSantis as a “fascist” who would “end democracy” in Florida. Is he talking about about the same Ron DeSantis?

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NPR Rallies the Righteous this evening

by philg

From an immigrant friend on the East Coast:

I drove to my [athletic] club today and listened to NPR to get my pulse up.

Started counting how many times they said “democracy is on the ballot”, “election deniers”, “threat to democracy” and so on

47 times in 50 minutes

What was the period covered by this study? 5:20-6:10 pm. In other words, there was enough time for the righteous listener to wipe the sweat off his/her/zir/their brow after a demanding day of pretend-to-work-from-home and respond to these threats by driving the working-class-subsidized electric car to the still-open polls.

Sadly, the call was not heeded by the righteous in Florida. The candidate who warned of fascism rising and democracy ending if he were to be defeated actually was defeated, even in counties where the majority of voters are registered in his party.

From The Google:

Charlie Crist lost in traditionally Democrat Miami, abandoned by his Latinx brothers, sisters, and binary-resisters, despite having been endorsed by the Miami Herald. It isn’t surprising that Mr. Crist won in Tallahassee, where everyone works for the government or a government-run university. It would be interesting to try to figure out what made Orlando and Fort Lauderdale outliers. Why don’t they love Ron?

Suppose that you are concerned about the end of democracy here in Florida. The New York Times has us covered.

I do like the Science-based “Take a deep breath and then plunge your face into a bowl or sink filled with ice water for 15 to 30 seconds” idea, but I would prefer “Put your head deep into a toilet and close the lid on your back to feel safe, making sure not to compress your breathing straw.”

How are things going back in our former home state? History was made:

The Human Rights Campaign applauded Healey’s win, saying, “as one of our nation’s first lesbian governors, she will not only be a champion of pro-equality policies, but also a role model for the entire LGBTQ+ community.”

The U.S. also has a chance to see its second openly lesbian governor elected on Tuesday. Tina Kotek, Oregon’s Speaker of the House, is running for governor of her state against Republican Christine Drazan and independent candidate Betsy Johnson. Oregon has had a Democratic governor since 1987.

Maybe this new role model can find some common ground with Ron DeSantis? From Healey’s campaign page on immigration:

Maura has been a leading advocate for immigrant rights. As Governor, she will ensure that all Massachusetts families can thrive.

  • Ensuring that eligible undocumented residents can receive a driver’s license, regardless of immigration status.
  • Ending state and local law enforcement’s involvement in federal immigration matters.
  • Expanding the state’s capacity to meet the language access needs of our communities.
  • At the federal level, providing a meaningful pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

She wants to take care of migrants and the Florida legislature has appropriate funds to help migrants to where go to where they will be welcomed.

Related:

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Will Democrats have to move if Republicans win in their states?

by philg

Democrats say that Americans will lose their democratic rights and be subjected to “fascism” if any Republicans are elected to positions of power today. Here’s an example from the Tyrant of Tallahassee’s opponent:

By implication, if Ron DeSantis wins Florida will be plunged into fascism and there won’t be any more democracy in Florida (it is almost gone and could be “saved” only via a Democrat victory). Surely Mr. Crist himself wouldn’t wish to stick around and live in a fascist state, right. Just as those who didn’t want to be subjected to school closures, lockdowns, mask orders, vaccination papers checks had to move to Florida in 2020-2021, won’t those in Florida who love Democracy and oppose fascism have to move to a Democrat-run state, e.g., California, New York, or Maskachusetts?

I assume that the same rhetoric is being ladled out by Democrats in other states. Let’s check in with neighboring Georgia:

Suppose that the hated Republican who has made Georgia unsafe is reelected. Georgians will continue to be “afraid to drop their kids off at school, attend a religious service or even go to the grocery store.” Wouldn’t it be logical for Stacey Abrams to move out of Georgia and into a safe state?

If Republicans, supporters of the January 6 insurrection, are as bad as Democrats say, nobody can be safe after this election in any state where Republicans control either the legislature or the governorship. Any Democrat who is physically able to move, therefore, should immediately flock to comfort in a state where there is no possibility of Republican political influence.

Update: In Charlie Crist’s concession speech, he opened with a “good congratulations to Governor DeSantis on his re-election” (YouTube). Instead of describing his plans to move away from fascism, in other words, he actually congratulated the fascist!

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Should we use the language of alcoholics to describe our COVID-19 vaccine status?

by philg

Alcoholics, at least in movies, like to say “I’m 5 years sober” or “I’m 8 months sober” or whatever, referring to their last drink that mean people would prohibit altogether.

We see some of the same behavior with the COVID-19 “shots”. Some people can’t stay away from CVS and get one needle stick after another while others are able to abstain for months or years and some brave peer-pressure-resistant souls are teetotalers (sad victims of the conspiracy theory that the immune system is capable of doing the job that it evolved to do). Would it be useful to adopt the language of alcoholics? Rochelle Walensky, our CDC Director, for example, when talking about her COVID-19 infection and then her rebound-after-Paxlovid COVID-19 illness could have said “I’m one month sober” (her mouse-tested bivalent COVID-19 “vaccine” shot was a month earlier).

Someone who was gulled into the first two could say “I’m 18 months sober”. A person who got the first booster, but refused to Follow the Science for #4 and #5 could say “I’m one year sober”.

Let’s look at a more recent example. Here’s the Biden Administration’s top FDA official on September 9 getting the shot that worked well for the mice (or at least didn’t kill any of them?):

Dr. Califf is “two months sober” today, which also happens to be the day that SARS-CoV-2 is hosting a regional event within Dr. Califf’s body. “FDA Commissioner Tests Positive for COVID-19; Experiencing Mild Symptoms” (fda.gov):

Commissioner Dr. Robert M. Califf tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend while traveling on official agency business. He is up to date on vaccines against COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms.

Will the use of the phrase “mild symptoms” become an easy way to recognize the Followers of Science?

Readers: I like to follow Science so of course I’ve had 5 shots. That doesn’t mean I’m going to walk to CVS for the 6th, though. I can quit any time that I want.

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Wile E. Coyote looks down (U.S. economic downturn has begun in earnest?)

by philg

There’s a sports car dealer next to our favorite taco place here in Jupiter. Their lot was jammed with cars, seemingly twice as full as in the summer. From their perspective, the car market turned about 30 days ago. They’re now paying only MSRP for nearly-new (500-mile) C8 Corvettes. What do they turn around and sell them for? It’s a little unclear because they say “We haven’t had a call for a Corvette in 3-4 weeks. The interest rates have killed demand.” (Note that this is contrary to my theory that we have enough deficit spending and inflation-indexed spending to have inflation even if nobody does any borrowing; see Can our government generate its own inflation spiral? and Economist answers my question about high interest rates and high deficits.)

How about real estate? There’s a house in our neighborhood (built by the MacArthur Foundation for middle-class and upper-middle-class people!) whose $3.35 million asking price in April 2022 seemed aggressive, particularly since there was no pool and the new owner would have to lease it back to the sellers until October when the sellers expected their new-built house to be ready.

Here’s the “value history”:

In June 2022, there actually was a greater fool who agreed to pay $3 million for this albatross. But then it seems that this person disappeared or wised up and the closing price was $2.4 million (last week):

If you’re depressed because you forgot to sell all of your assets in March 2022, this message from the taco place might be useful:

If you’re depressed because you were dumb enough to buy a house early in 2022 at early-2022 prices (looking in the mirror is painful!), you can be comforted that you don’t live in San Francisco, which MSNBC uses as shorthand for a truly crummy and crime-plagued urban environment (the MSNBC interviewer says, regarding a higher-crime Manhattan, “We’re worried this could be San Francisco”):

Readers: What are you seeing? Did we run off the cliff a few months ago and not notice until now?

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