Coronascience charts

by philg

A reader sent me the following Trust in Science page: https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

The Spectator folks track the predictions of Science against actual outcomes. This is enabled by the fact that the UK rejected Science’s advice to impose a lockdown and therefore we can see the predictions of a no-lockdown situation versus the reality of a no-lockdown situation. (I.e., the Scientists can’t say that their doomsday scenario would have materialized if the politicians hadn’t followed their lockdown advice.)

One thing that is interesting about Coronascience is how fragile it is and how dependent on suppression of criticism. Astronomers don’t need Facebook, Twitter, and Google to suppress speech from people who believe in astrology. Astronomy’s credibility comes from a track record of successful predictions, not from silencing dissent. After two years of what we are told is enormous progress in Coronascience, however, the predictive ability of those who call themselves “Scientists” is minimal and the public’s faith in “The Science” can be maintained only by banning from Twitter, Facebook, et al., those who point out apparent contradictions.

See “Twitter suspends Marjorie Taylor Greene for 7 days over vaccine misinformation” (NYT, August 2021), for example:

She said there were too many reports of infection and spread of the coronavirus among vaccinated people, and that the vaccines were “failing” and “do not reduce the spread of the virus & neither do masks.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s current guidance states, “Covid-19 vaccines are effective at protecting you from getting sick.”

In a statement circulated online, Ms. Greene said: “I have vaccinated family who are sick with Covid. Studies and news reports show vaccinated people are still getting Covid and spreading Covid.”

Data from the C.D.C. shows that of the so-called breakthrough infections among the fully vaccinated, serious cases are extremely rare.

It can’t be simply that Representative Greene was speaking on a medical topic and therefore misinformation cannot be tolerated. Ordinary medicine apparently has a sufficiently secure reputation that Facebook and Twitter allow people to talk about their beliefs in herbs, homeopathy, acupuncture and other “alternative” medicine. It is specifically Coronascience where respect for the field must be manufactured via suppression.

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26 thoughts on “Coronascience charts”

  1. The Djokovic story is amazing. According to Google, Australia is 77% vaccinated and their cases are exploding right now, i.e., the vaccine does not work against Omicron. Instead of admitting that their rules have failed, the baptized gang up on non-believers and want to spread the gospel with fire and sword.

    That is all there is to it right now: We, the 77%, have taken the sacrament, and so will you!

    • Hmm… https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/australia-covid-cases.html says that they have an average of 52,475 new COVID cases per day in Australia. So if Djokovic were infected and they fail to deport him, it could spike to 52,476.

      The vaccination rate for eligible Australians is actually higher than 77%. They achieved 90% vaccination for those 16 and older in mid-November 2021. A “77% figure” sounds alarming (23% refusing the sacrament!), but it includes 6-month-old babies, for example, who aren’t eligible for even an emergency use medicine.

      https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/australia-aims-vaccinate-children-under-12-against-covid-19-january-2021-11-14/

    • Apparently, the Australian sheep have just put a woman tennis player into the immigration detention center too, for the same reason.

      Although as a former amateur tennis player I am somewhat disappointed by my being unable to see Djokovic play (the most likely outcome of his begging to be allowed to stay in Australia), he has nobody to blame for the situation but himself. Why come to a party that does not want to have you as a guest unless you perform a certain ritual ? And when notified that he is not welcome there, insist on staying nevertheless ?

    • The prev comment was mine.

      “why would it be his fault for trying to play?”

      Given Australians’ paranoia and hatred towards anyone who did not suffer through their lockdowns it was a little naive on D’s part to rely on the tennis federation promises, although I’ll grant you that there was a non-zero probability (less than 0.5 though) of him being allowed to play. It was a bit like former Tsar military men relying on bolsheviks’ promises — almost every one of those gullible people were executed eventually.

      Moreover, I am completely mystified by his insistence to play even after he was told in no uncertain terms that his kind had not not welcome in the land of former and current convicts. He is free to leave any time as far as one can say from news reports.

  2. I think scientists are desperate to claim credit for winning the war against COVID. For many I suspect this is simply because it plays into their egotistical tendencies that were the reason they got into academia in the first place.

    For some scientists (one well-known policy maker in particular), however, I think it is because they know that COVID was created by scientists [*]. Maintaining control of the COVID narrative, and declaring science to be infallible, is important for keeping the public away from learning that Science created the mess from which Science is now claiming to be our sole savior. If the public should realize that, many academics working in virology will lose their careers, and the pleasure they get from playing God as they genetically engineer ever more dangerous viruses. New restrictions on medical research would have a chilling impact far beyond virology. They believed the dangerous research was worth the risk when they started doing it, and now they are just continuing on with their “we know better” attitude.

    [*] I came to this conclusion after a lengthy and deep study of the natural origin vs. lab origin question, but Dr. Chan at the Broad Institute is much smarter than me and came to the same conclusion :
    https://nypost.com/2021/12/22/dr-alina-chan-doubles-down-on-covid-19-origin-theory/
    As have many other scientists (particularly those who do not work on GoF research and were not personally involved in the decisions to fund and/or undertake such research in Wuhan). Note also that Dr. Chan is a woman, so disagreeing with her conclusion is probably misogynistic.

  3. So given all the discussion, what is the downside to taking the vaccine? If the mandate went away would more of the unvaccinated be willing to give it a go since the slippery slope of authoritarianism wouldn’t then be an issue?

    • Craig: I’m repeatedly guilty of the “compare to influenza” heresy. So my best guess as to the downside for not-at-risk-from-COVID people of getting a COVID vaccine shot is that it will be similar to the downside for not-at-risk-from-flu people who get flu shots, i.e., it will reduce the effectiveness of future vaccinations, e.g., when they’re old enough to need them. See https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4387051/ and https://www.statnews.com/2015/11/11/flu-shots-reduce-effectiveness/

      But that’s a guess! These vaccines are brand new and it will probably take 8-10 years to figure out the true level of safety, just as the “experts” quoted in spring 2020 said it would.

      (Regarding your question about how many would get the vaccine if it were voluntary… if we believe CDC numbers, 98.5% of the at-risk (65 and over) have already gotten the vaccine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/11/11/stunning-vaccine-stat-985-of-us-seniors-have-had-shot/?sh=4b4475b05777 )

    • > Comparing COVID to the flu was previously considered hate speech by the same newspaper!

      The rules on the barn wall in Animal Farm were updated regularly as well!

    • The risk to a 75 year old from Covid being roughly the same as from the flu seems inconsistent with the excess deaths for the last two years. If we are indeed seeing so many excess deaths (presumably baselined against a normal flu season) who is dying if not the 75 and older cohort?

    • Sorry – went back and read your comment more carefully. The risk you cited is to 75 year olds who are vaccinated.

    • Craig: I was just quoting NYT, of course, but it is still kind of interesting. Nearly every old person in the U.S. is vaccinated. Everyone else who wants a vaccine can get one easily. If the current COVID-19 variant is actually less deadly to the vaccinated than the flu is, why are we still living under a Covidcratic government? Or maybe the answer is that our tolerance for death and disease is lower than it was so we will have lockdowns, masks, school closures, etc. for the flu.

    • philg: I think if we got all children vaccinated, then the school part of shutdown would be solved. Don’t most States require vaccinations for children for other diseases before they enter school? Of course the teachers unions might fight a bit, but not for long.

      Then, if all people were vaccinated most of the rest of the measures would probably subside pretty quickly. If the mortality rate is fairly reasonable (say equivalent to a bad flu season) after 100% of the population is vaccinated then that will become the new baseline. We might have some residual measures – some countries might require proof of vaccination (like the old days), and many folks might find masks convenient to wear to avoid worrying about that bit of lunch stuck in their teeth.

    • The previously required vaccinations for schoolchildren are vastly more effective than the current COVID-19 vaccines. That was the point of my recently Maskachusetts article. It is a masked and vaccinated (95%) population that currently hosts a raging plague. So if the reason for the school closure is that the children might get infected or might infected the teacher, you still need to close the school even after 100 percent of the folks in the classrooms are vaccinated (and, in fact, many of the schools that are closed this week are close to 100 percent vaccination).

      The Brits did a careful study last year and found that masks in school had essentially no effect on infection rate. See https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59895934 But if I am correct and coronapanic is a religion, studies like this won’t result in policy changes. The Plexi barrier concept was purportedly debunked ( https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/well/live/coronavirus-restaurants-classrooms-salons.html ) but you didn’t see anyone take down the Plexi, did you?

      The booster shot of current mRNA vaccines is about 37 percent effective against Omicron (see https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1478396107856224261 ). The polio vaccine is more than 99% effective by the time a child has reached school age (see https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/polio/hcp/effectiveness-duration-protection.html ).

      A vaccine that is 37 percent effective can be expected to increase infection rates and transmission, according to https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-021-00362-z (due to risk compensation)

    • The schools will open up because the conditions have changed. Since Omicron is <= flu, and all the kids and teachers will be forced to be vaccinated as a requirement to enter the school, then acceptance of our collective fate follows – there is no more ammunition to throw at the problem other than booster shots. There will be no more requirement to prevent infection of teachers since they will be expected to eventually get a case of Covid, as will the kids. Nationally, teachers will die of Covid at the same rate as every other 21-55 year old (assuming most teachers grab their pension as soon as possible).

    • Craig: The experiment that you’re suggesting has already been run.

      https://www.ktvu.com/news/west-contra-costa-unified-school-district-issues-mandatory-student-vaccination-rules

      is from October 1, 2021 (forced vaccinations for students).

      https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2022/01/05/covid-all-west-contra-costa-schools-close-long-omicron-recovery-weekend/

      is from January 5, 2022 (schools closed due to Omicron fears and because they want to “deep clean” to fight the aerosol virus).

      I know plenty of people age 10-30 who were and are afraid enough about COVID-19 that they wouldn’t leave bunkers, interact with anyone indoors, de-mask when in an open field, etc. Prior to vaccination, their risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19 was already far lower than a vaccinated elderly person’s COVID-19 risk. They’ve been vaccinated now and, after hearing recent media reports, they’re back to their 2020 level of fear and behavior modification relative to 2019.

      If coronapanic is primarily a disease of the mind, statistics regarding COVID-19’s effect on the physical body aren’t going to change a person’s coronapanic level.

    • (The experiment has also been run at the university level. A lot of schools require 100% vaccination for teachers and students (and boosters as soon as #Science makes them available). The same schools require teachers and students to be tested for COVID-19 once/week or twice/week (K-12 public schools have some trouble imposing this as a requirement, I think, but they can encourage students/parents to volunteer for the Ritual of Swabbing). And, of course, everyone must wear the hijab (cloth mask). What are these universities doing now that Omicron threatens to kill off the 18-22-year-old undergrads? Closing down. See https://nypost.com/2021/12/18/harvard-university-going-remote-over-omicron-covid-variant/ for example. https://www.npr.org/2021/12/22/1066788973/colleges-universities-remote-distance-learning-omicron lists a bunch of other examples of shutdown, including seven campuses of University of California (all fully vaxxed and masked).)

    • Wow – you are really pessimistic about our collective ability to adapt and overcome! We may be in the thralls of the high priests of Coronapanic, but they are starting to change the sacrament: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/politics/covid-testing-vaccine-omicron-what-matters/index.html

      I would argue that behavior prior to Omicron should be heavily de-emphasized. We have only been experiencing Omicron for a week or two, and it is burning through the population with most recovering. Omicron is a game changer (along with new therapeutics) and it won’t take long for the fear to subside.

    • Craig: You raise a good point. In August, according to both our media and my friends, COVID-19 was caused by stupidity, vaccine-refusal, and mask-rejection. By December, the same folks were saying that COVID-19 was caused by high intelligence, triple vaccine shots, and wearing a mask both indoors and out. So there isn’t an obvious obstacle to a 180-degree flip on the idea that school closure is the second most important element of “controlling” a respiratory virus (the most important element, of course, being keeping the essential marijuana stores open).

    • philg: In a few years, most of us will look back and ask ourselves what the hell we were thinking. It will be like looking at old pictures of us wearing bell-bottom jeans. I think your excellent analysis and writing in the blog will stand the test of time as some of the best out there on the subject of Covid. It’s too bad our system isn’t structured to get more like yourself in leadership positions in Government and other institutions. In case you don’t hear it enough I want to thank you for all the hard work you put into your writing as well as your other pursuits.

    • Thanks for the kind words, Craig! On further reflection, that the official propaganda outlets, such as the NYT, are now comparing COVID-19 to flu, suggests that your point of view is correct. I.e., that the spring propaganda will inform the masses that, due to successful control by Science and government, COVID-19 has been vanquished and even unionized teachers can go to work in safety.

      Speaking of teachers,

      https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/01/07/california-student-test-scores-dismal-during-covid-closures

      is from yesterday. “Just a third tested at grade-level for math, less for science… The numbers are in for California’s student performance over the last school year when the state led the country in campus closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the most comprehensive assessment yet of their mostly remote learning shows they failed to make the grade in English, math and science. … California ranked last among the states for time spent in the classroom in 2020-21.”

      (California school outcomes were already the worst of any large state’s, both in raw terms and adjusted for demographics; see https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/upshot/surprise-florida-and-texas-excel-in-math-and-reading-scores.html )

    • re: ” it will reduce the effectiveness of future vaccinations, e.g., when they’re old enough to need them.”

      Vaccine expert Paul Offit and two former FDA vaccine experts wrote an oped in the Washington Post, archive, questioning the utility of a booster in part due to:

      https://web.archive.org/web/20220106101245/https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/11/29/booster-shots-universal-opinion/
      “It’s also possible that repeatedly “training” the immune system to fight the original virus could reduce the effectiveness of a variant-specific booster. This phenomenon, called “original antigenic sin,” has been observed with influenza and human papillomavirus vaccines. In other words, for those not in immediate need of a boost, there may be a significant advantage to waiting until a booster more closely aligned with circulating variants becomes available; boosting on the original antigen could be counterproductive.”

      The New York Times also noted:

      https://web.archive.org/web/20220107000609/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/06/health/covid-vaccines-boosters.html
      “The second worry, called “original antigenic sin,” seems more plausible. In this view, the immune system’s response is tailored to the first version of the virus, and its responses to subsequent variants are much less powerful.”

      I got the initial 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine since I’m old enough to be at noticeable risk (if I were 18 I might have made a different choice): but I’m not elderly so I’m not at too high a risk so I didn’t get the current booster due to concerns that continued imprinting on the initial strain might make a future booster against a deadlier one less effective.

      Although over the long term viruses may evolve to be less severe: there is still the possibility that a more severe variant appears. If that happens: it’d be useful for any booster for it to be as effective as possible. I figure t-cell and b-cell memory gives me enough protection against this variant that my bet (which may be based on flawed incomplete information of course) is to hold off on a booster unless I see data suggesting more benefit to it.

    • The articles that RealityEngineer cites are consistent with what my med school professor friends say. We’re tinkering with a complicated system (the human immune system) and have only a faint inkling as to what the long-term and overall results will bill.

    • Craig: “It will be like looking at old pictures of us wearing bell-bottom jeans.”
      philg in a comment to a earlier post “Let’s go to Brandon (Florida)”: “The teenagers in the public high school that I attended were certainly not models of tolerance. They would deride someone who wore a disfavored brand of blue jeans, for example.”
      I hope that Philip and Craig did nit go to the same school back 1970th.

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