I took our 2.5-year-old Honda Odyssey in for a B127 service, for which I’d made an appointment. Due to the dealer being short-staffed and, apparently, not completely organized, they couldn’t do “7” (brake fluid change) without adding a multi-hour wait on top of the promised 1.5-2-hours.
The parts stock situation has improved compared to 1.5 years ago in that they had all three wiper blades available for the minivan compared to just one back in 2021. The car stock situation is also slightly improved, with a handful of new cars in stock and available at $2,000 over retail. It was $5,000 over in 2022, but of course the total price in nominal dollars is similar because Honda has raised the list price. The identical minivan that we leased in 2021 for $400/month is available… for $800/month. Here’s a 2008 jalopy that, pre-coronapanic, the dealer would have sent to auction (the venerable Ford Taurus sits amidst the parking spaces that in 2019 were jammed with new cars):
Fresh from a checkup with one of America’s 190 board-certified veterinary dentists, Mindy the Crippler was my companion for the two-hour wait and made a lot of new friends inside the dealership. I left her with another customer while I went to get coffee and returned to find that the invasive species had invaded the vinyl seats:
My question for today is how consumers are able to keep spending like drug dealers and/or alimony plaintiffs. A lease quote is the best indication of the true cost of car ownership because it factors in the time value of money and the market’s expectation of depreciation. The cost of car ownership gone up dramatically doubled for anyone who needed to buy a car in the past two years or so, especially when you factor in higher gasoline prices. Therefore, these car owners should have less money to spend on rent, TV/phone subscriptions, entertainment, dining out, trinkets, etc.
What’s new in the Honda minivan world, aside from nothing? Honda seems to have dropped their basic trim level. For Corvette enthusiasts, there is a new “Sport” trim level that has black wheels:
What do readers think? To me, it looks like an old Dodge Caravan whose wheel covers were boosted in the Bronx.
Wikipedia says that pre-coronapanic production of this car was 100,000-130,000 per year between 2009 and 2019. For 2020, however, production fell to 83,000. In 2021, production was down to 76,000. In 2022, it fewer than 48,000 Odysseys were made. Half as many cars at 10X the total profit for manufacturer and dealer? Do we suspect a continued chip shortage or quiet collusion among the handful of major car manufacturers?
If integrated circuits were primarily made in the U.S., it wouldn’t be surprising to find them still in short supply. After all, quite a few Americans were introduced to the advantages of sitting at home playing Xbox all day and habits, once formed, are tough to break. But the Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese continued to work during coronapanic. Why aren’t these hard-working nations making as many chips as car companies need/want?
Against the collusion hypothesis: if the legacy car companies won’t supply a mass market anymore, that opens the door to infiltration by Tesla, Lucid, and Hyundai/Kia (sort of a legacy car company, but also not exactly mainstream until recently).
Related:
- “Car Dealer Markups Helped Drive Inflation, Study Finds” (WSJ, April 23): “extra dealer profits contributed between 0.3 and 0.5 percentage point of the nearly 16% rise in the consumer-price index between the end of 2019 and the end of 2022, a study published in a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics journal found.”
- “If you want affordable housing, move to Cape Cod where you belong” bumper sticker in Nantucket (36 households so far are getting $67 million in taxpayer-funded subsidies, while those not favored by the housing ministry on Nantucket must pay market rates (median house price: $3 million); we call this “equity”)
What percentage of the car fleet gets replaced each year? My guess is that there is a lot of elasticity in the car market because cars have become incredibly reliable over the past 40 years. A Japanese car with 100K miles is probably good for another 100K miles. So, how many people actually need a new car compared to how many people want a new car? I myself am driving a 16 year old car with a 130K miles. If I saw a good deal I might be inclined to buy a new car, but I also see no reason I can’t keep driving my existing car for even another 10 years.
Daniel: Agreed. A new car is nice, but we could be happy with our 2021 Odyssey until 2031 (should be cracking 100,000 miles only at that point) unless President Harris outlaws gasoline. More likely, though, Congress and Presidents Biden and Harris will come up with new and ingenious ways for working class Americans to fund luxurious new electric cars for the rich and it will be tough to resist the handouts extracted from people who are making do with 2005 Camrys. (The rich are getting subsidized for Lucids and Teslas so long as they lease the vehicles and/or form some kind of LLC to harvest the $7500 plus whatever state taxpayers are forced to shell out. See https://electrek.co/2023/04/05/how-to-bypass-nearly-every-restriction-of-the-ev-tax-credit-by-leasing/ )
My car is 15 years old and has about 130k miles too. I kind of want a new car and was prepared to spend 180 grand on what would be my first ever new car (Porsche 911). After some consideration I continue to drive my old car to the airplane I just bought for 180 grand. In 5 or 6 years the plane will most likely be worth 180k + plus whatever inflation is. Tough decisions but I get more joy flying this plane than I would have driving a new car I have to constantly worry about.
Obama said, if you like your old car or airplane, you can keep your old car or airplane.
There you have it, Obama was right!
@George A.
Re Obama. Obama didn’t like old cars, remember “Cash for Clunkers.”
@Mary Hahn Jahb Great point! I hope Russia wins the war!
@MHJ: Obama also leased a 2009 Ford Escape Hybrid to replace his 15-18MPG Chrysler 300C. Nobody knows where it went after he ended the lease, but someone has it.
https://www.forbes.com/pictures/fehf45gfkh/barack-obama-ford-escap/?sh=5a243e132dd0
https://www.aol.com/news/2010-10-07-obama-ford-escape-auction-president-unknown-bidder-hybrid.html
I wasn’t following in Obama’s footsteps when I got my 2010, it was owned by a relative who gifted it to me a couple of years ago when I started to get sick. I needed a reliable car that got good mileage and had a lot of room. The car only had 55,000 miles on the clock and was **PRISTINE** in and out. The relative used to take it to the dealer, write them a blank check and say:
“Fix it please, as quickly as possible.”
“Yes, thank you Doctor, we’ll call you by tomorrow afternoon.”
It was always garaged when they owned it and in showroom condition. I’ve done my best to keep it close to that, but I have picked up a couple of scratches over the next 55,000 miles. Other than routine maintenance it hasn’t needed anything except a wheel bearing and the normal brake rotors, drums, shoes, pads, etc. I didn’t know about Obama’s car until a year ago. The 2009 model was the high water mark in terms of refinement and engineering: it had a second A/C evaporator in the side panel of the rear cargo compartment to blow cold air through the battery and take the load off the primary compressor/evap. Ford’s beancounters summarily deleted those part to save money from 2010-2012, which are still very good cars but you have to watch the interior heat and run MAX AC to cool the interior down in the summer. The battery pack forms the floor of the rear cargo compartment and there are blowers fans in there, but Ford was trying to save money in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
Then they went to the perfidious European platform (almost impossible to work on, you have to remove BOTH FRONT DOORS to fix a $5.00 flap in the climate control system). In 2022 they wised up and made it easier to work on and now they are very good cars again.
I drive a 2011 HHR and will keep driving it till it stops running. That’s what I did with my 2001 Impala. I sold it for $250 because it won’t start due to security key lock issues that I could not fix no matter how hard I tried. The guy who bought it got it started in 30 seconds! He knew his stuff. When I sold it, it was at 230K miles and the engine still going strong. Impala was the best American car built, period. Too bad Chev stop making them.
I own a small rental property that I run on the side. You have no idea how many of my tenants drive a car much newer and far more expensive than my HHR. Those same tenants live pay-check-to-pay-check. They have no concept of saving or not living beyond their means.
Rather than woke courses at high school, students must be required to take and pass 1 or 2 economic courses to graduate. Many don’t even know the concept of balancing a checkbook or the meaning of interest on a credit card.
Lions miss the 14″ rim. All new cars are 16″ rims & above. The fed is citing increasing productivity from chatgpt as a deflationary force offsetting the increasing prices on the top end. The printing press must go on.
Gentrification (and tons of equipment, no more basic vehicles) in the US&A has affected even car ownership. Sometimes, against common sense, because most people these days want crossover SUVs and not minivans. I owned about half a dozen minivans in past years. Today the most stolen vehicles in Mexico are SUVs and small cars used as taxis (for parts). BTW, the Honda CRV in white, seems to be the most desirable vehicle in Mexico, probably also in upstate NY where i saw many. When I lived in Upstate NY, before I moved, retired to Mexico, I needed a van to carry my stuff. I wanted a Honda Odyssey but it was very expensive even used before 2017. I ended up buying a Dodge Caravan, that had insufficient power for Mexican mountains but had a wonderful feature of seats that disappeared under the floor. Customs agent in Mexico were curious of what was under them. The Mexican version of the Caravan has a larger engine. Sadly, the Caravan is discontinued. And, talking about dealerships, I now own a Kia Niro hybrid and I have to pay more than 100 dollars every six months for service to avoid losing the warranty for the expensive lithium battery. The Niro has less than a 1000 miles after almost a year and a half of my ownership. Also, they stole a wallet at the dealership where I had an expired TX driver’s license and “monedero” store cards to accumulate points, in spite of them taking a picture of my belongings when I arrived. It takes me about 3 hours for unnecessary frequent services.
Gentrifikation — had to misspell it to avoid repetition, (and tons of equipment, no more basic vehicles) in the US&A has affected even car ownership. Sometimes, against common sense, because most people these days want crossover SUVs and not minivans. I owned about half a dozen minivans in past years. Today the most stolen vehicles in Mexico are SUVs and small cars used as taxis (for parts). BTW, the Honda CRV in white, seems to be the most desirable vehicle in Mexico, probably also in upstate NY where i saw many. When I lived in Upstate NY, before I moved, retired to Mexico, I needed a van to carry my stuff. I wanted a Honda Odyssey but it was very expensive even used before 2017. I ended up buying a Dodge Caravan, that had insufficient power for Mexican mountains but had a wonderful feature of seats that disappeared under the floor. Customs agent in Mexico were curious of what was under them. The Mexican version of the Caravan has a larger engine. Sadly, the Caravan is discontinued. And, talking about dealerships, I now own a Kia Niro hybrid and I have to pay more than 100 dollars every six months for service to avoid losing the warranty for the expensive lithium battery. The Niro has less than a 1000 miles after almost a year and a half of my ownership. Also, they stole a wallet at the dealership where I had an expired TX driver’s license and “monedero” store cards to accumulate points, in spite of them taking a picture of my belongings when I arrived. It takes me about 3 hours for unnecessary frequent services.
How can they keep spending? Perhaps it is just credit cards:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/katherinehamilton/2023/04/07/americans-racked-up-record-consumer-debt-in-february/?sh=716c18dd205f
After getting federal largesse dumped upon them for years, the average consumer seems to be having an issue living within their means. So – charge it!!
“Wealth of Geeks” via MSN has a partial answer to one question:
https://tinyurl.com/ydskpcn7
Buying a New Car When They’re Broke
Everybody shakes their head disapprovingly when they hear this story: the broke friend who buys a new car or truck, putting themselves in a challenging financial situation. So why do people do this to themselves? The answer, according to many people, is that they’re dumb.
The new Odyssey isn’t ugly, it’s just a little too “generic ovoid” which substitutes for real styling today. The black wheels on that car look silly. They actually look silly on any car except for a few rare examples of “monsterized” muscle cars, preferably old ones, in flat black. Unless the car itself was black I’d never consider them. Some people must love them or Honda wouldn’t go to the trouble, though, would it? In general I don’t see the point of racy wheels and low-profile tires on a “generic ovoid” family vehicle. I don’t understand why people would put up with the higher noise and impact harshness of those low-profile things. I’m glad they’re optional.
What’s amazing to me is how “Supply Chain Issues” are just disappearing from news articles without any real explanation of how that enormous problem worked itself out. A year and a half ago, everyone was using “Supply Chain Issues” as an excuse to cover up their incompetence. On that basis alone I expected them to last forever.
Spending a lot of money on a car is a great way to ensure that you aren’t prepared for retirement and will have no investment assets.
Buy it used (minimum 50k) and drive it into the ground (150k+). Preferably Toyota or Honda. I like hybrids, myself.
My 2005 Prius is 18 years old with 170k. Still purrs.
@G C: I currently own a 2010 Ford Escape Hybrid which is built around the old Escape platform, with five doors, real room, fold-down seats, and is loaded to the gills. Electric air conditioning, a ~250-300 pound battery pack, and the rest of the driveline was *derived from the Prius* in both the mechanical sense and its theory of operation. It is a true eCVT with no clutches, gear shifting, solenoids, or other parts to break. Two electric motors (one traction, one motor/generator) live in the transaxle and are connected to the ICE through a planetary gearset. The computers constantly adjust the rotational speed of the motors and their respective torque to vary their contribution to moving down the road, as well as the effective gear ratio.
It’s a strange thing to be accelerating while the RPMs *drop* and you feel no gearshifting.
It was one of the best-engineered cars Ford has ever made in my opinion, and the new Maverick small pickup contains an updated version of essentially the same drivetrain. The difference is that the Maverick uses a small Lithium Ion battery pack (looks like about 300 pounds) that is both liquid-cooled AND heated through a heat exchanger attached to the exhaust system. Very good drivetrain.
My 13 year old Escape runs perfectly at ~109k miles and I still get mileage that is squarely within the EPA estimates when it was brand new. I love the car. 15 gallons of gas nets me about 450 miles of range, and the only charging is internal. It has now survived two MA winters and summers outdoors (I do not have a garage) and starts on the first crank. I’ve put about $900 into maintenance during that time (wheel bearing, tires, oil, transaxle fluid, etc.)
The Prius transaxle control theory is complex and the same is true of the FEH, naturally – because the latter was derived from the former. Now the Maverick has basically the same setup, but with lighter, more compact electric motors, etc. I wish I could find another one in this condition, but the problem seems to be that when it was introduced, so few mechanics knew how to repair it (it’s not that hard) and a lot of owners neglected the maintenance. HINT: HEAT KILLS THE BATTERIES IN THESE CARS. Direct sun in the summer is the worst. I use a windshield shade and try to park under trees, etc., etc. on those days, and MAX AC until the interior temps come down.
Otherwise there is no compromise. I never worry about charging, either.
Oh, also: The transaxle is not the Subaru type with the endless linked belt and the two pulleys that vary the gear ratio by sliding together/apart under hydraulic control. There is no such thing in this transaxle (or the Prius) which contributes to it’s long life. Just make sure you change the transaxle fluid on a regular basis with the manufacturer recommended fluid. Ford doesn’t tell you that in the manual – it says “filled for life” hahaha. I do mine every 60k.
Here’s a look at the “guts”. The one in my FEH is the 2nd-Generation Aisin HD-20.
https://youtu.be/hHU5xFOBcsU?t=593
Perhaps it would also be instructive to note that people who are spending beyond their means for a new car by, say, $10,000-20,000 are nothing compared to automakers struggling to bring cars that are problematic and wasteful porkers to market:
Ford Model E Division Lost $60K on Every Electric Vehicle They Sold in Q1 2023
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/ford-model-e-division-lost-60k-on-every-electric-vehicle-it-sold-in-the-first-quarter-214411.html
So instead of losing $60,000 per wasteful porker with totally fabricated, synthetic eMPG numbers that don’t reflect the real world in the slightest, Ford could just GIVE “customers” a decently-equipped Escape Hybrid, still saving $20-25 grand, and the EPA Estimated Fuel Economy would actually jibe with what the car achieves with real people driving it, not bureaucrats from the Ministry of Car Propaganda.
EVs Fall Short of EPA Estimates by a Much Larger Margin Than Gas Cars in Our Real-World Highway Testing
“While internal-combustion cars often match or exceed their EPA highway fuel economy numbers, a new paper using data from C/D’s highway tests show that EVs are far worse at meeting expectations.”
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a43657072/evs-fall-short-epa-estimates-sae-article/
I guess in this last article, Car and Driver and a handful of actual engineers decided they couldn’t stand the lies any more – now that the world is committed to EVs.
My BIL buys a new car or two every two years, some excellent (Acura) and some awful (Jeep). Who owns Chrysler these days, they have some real Piece-of S cars for sale. Can’t imagine who buys them. philg got a nice one in the new ‘Vette but it’s out of reach for us.
We are in that 50k-150k club.
I’m still driving my 2001 Ford Taurus for my 3-mile round trip commute to work each day. Bought it in ’02 for $12,000 from National Car Rental with 20K miles on it. Mileage is poor at 16/20 MPG.
My ’08 Ford F150 still runs great. Bought it in ’15 for $14K from a private seller. Mileage is poor at 15/18 MPG.