We’re informed that a peace deal with Iran is coming any day now. Some of the terms seem worse than what Carthage had to give when they surrendered to Rome. For example, “Trump’s $300 billion problem on the Iran agreement”:
In an interview with CBS News Monday morning, Vice President JD Vance seemed to tacitly confirm the premise that Iran could be given “access” to a reconstruction fund worth as much as $300 billion.
Ever since that interview, the administration has strained to clarify things. It has emphasized that this money wouldn’t come from US taxpayers. Instead, it would be money from other Gulf countries that would only be available if Iran complies with a peace deal.
Vance said late Monday on Fox News that “we would invite other countries — not us, but other countries — to invest in” Iran. He echoed that Tuesday, telling Megyn Kelly that the US wouldn’t let the United Arab Emirates, for example, “invest in Iran, unless the Iranians change their behavior.”
When the Obama administration and other countries cut a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, it included giving Iran access to billions of dollars. In that case, it wasn’t money from other countries, but instead Iran’s own assets that had been frozen in foreign banks under sanctions. Estimates generally placed the dollar figure around $50 billion.
The Islamic Republic of Iran still officially hates the U.S., right? They’ve been chanting “Death to America” for 47 years. To the extent that they have money and sovereignty, therefore, won’t they use that money to build weapons factories? To the extent that they have electric power, won’t they use that power to run the factories 24/7?
One purported benefit is oil can flow through the Strait of Hormuz without interference from the Iranian Navy that, we’re informed, no longer exists. But if the U.S. is an oil exporter, how do we benefit from the ability of competitors in the Persian Gulf to export through the Strait?
Maybe Donald Trump is doing this for immediate political gain? The price of gasoline will go down a little and, therefore, Democrats who were previously climate alarmists and wanted higher gasoline prices to discourage consumption will stop their recent complaints about the higher gasoline prices that they previously advocated? This explanation seems implausible because surrendering to an enemy, even if you call it “winning”, doesn’t usually make a politician more popular. Wouldn’t Trump enjoy more popular support, at least among Republicans, with round-the-clock bombing of Iran’s oil industry (thus denying the ayatollahs the money they need to build weapons factories) and electricity plants (thus denying the regime the grid-scale electric power that it needs to run its weapons factories)?
Separately, if the goal is to keep the non-existent Iranian Navy out of the Strait, couldn’t we use robot submersibles to make the waters unfriendly to those whom we don’t like? Here’s an example from Anduril that can endure for 10 days:
This war really shook me.
All my progressive friends, passionate about women’s rights and equity fighting vigorously against the patriarchy. When I congratulated them on the start of a war that back then appeared well on its way to overthrowing a despotic regime jailing women for not wearing hijabs imposed by crazy religious fundamentalists they curtly told me they “did not want to discuss politics”. Eighty million people controlled for half a century by crazy religious fundamentalists. Longest internet blackout in world history. Every single Iranian ask-me-anything on Reddit done under pain of severe penalty through illegal VPN cursing the revolutionary guard and the life that they live. For the start of this war it was nothing but “the world is so confusing these days” or “I don’t want to discuss politics”.
A defense of the same regime that through Hezbollah has been targeting innocent civilans, the same for whom a passionate defense had to be made and Israel vigorously denounced of course.
The same people who passionately fight against climate change as the greatest threat to humanity also decry the attempts of the Commander in Chief to increase gas prices. Which might finally shrink the enormous SUVs that people come to work in, fitting exactly one person into them.
The greatest loss is that we came so close to overthrowing this regime and came away with nothing
Anon, I have been immersed in the peace-loving religion of Islam for my entire life. As I said earlier, I am not a worldly person (and neither are my four wives–ages 8, 9, and two at 11–all of whom I purchased in Kabul last year). That said, knowing what we know, we would like to assure you that jailing women for lack of hijabs is in their best interests. We even notice that Greta is now wearing a mini hijab around her neck as a sign of support and love for our cherished tradition of child rape. Please, rest easily knowing that all is good, and of course trust in Allah!
Another delightful post that makes my heart go pitter-patter, along with those of my four wives (ages 8, 9, and two at 11), all of whom I purchased in Kabul last year. We are not as worldly as you, but we do wonder one thing: could the agreement enhance the ability of those here in the U.S. to purchase additional child wives for the purposes of our cherished tradition of child rape (given that there will likely be direct flights now that there has been regime change Iran and the current gay ayatollah is a friend of the U.S.)?
The only outcome was going to be some type of reparations package. That’s the same as paying a $1M toll for 300,000 ships or 6 years of typical traffic. At least it’s an upper bound instead of indefinite reparations.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. ” Good luck with that.
It is a disgrace. It is bad for Israel, for us, and for many Iranians. Perhaps there were no viable alternatives. Iranian control of the Strait is difficult to counter. Bombing Iran’s infrastructure, setting aside the question of legality, would likely not solve the problem. Iran could retaliate and devastate the infrastructure of the Gulf states, either now or in the future.
Think before you act. It is advice that applies to most things in life.
The main premise is that Iran had uranium for about 10 nuclear bombs, which had to be addressed immediately. I agree with first 3 sentences,and also it is bad for Gulf Arab States as well.
Other mentioned issues could be resolved. We could swarm coastline with drones, at least we tested it on US East Coast few years back, we had lots of “UFO”s back than.
It is a disgrace and it’s as easy to believe that the IDF hadn’t done plenty of thinking as it is to believe that Trump managed to screw up whatever plan they had. Maybe the one where the Kurds provide on the ground assistance in accomplishing regime change.
Anon: What is the relevance of “legality”? Nearly everything that Donald Trump does, including rehab on the Reflecting Pool, is characterized by at least half of Americans and presumably more than half of the rest of the world, as “illegal”. If we were guided by legal experts, our borders would be open and 100 percent of Americans (which could be 4 billion people since the border would be open) would be entitled to a taxpayer-funded lifestyle (housing, health care, and food are all human rights).
Regarding “the infrastructure of the Gulf states”, that would be nice to preserve, of course, but the Gulf states don’t seem to be our allies (we weren’t able to operate military planes from their airports). lt is tough enough to win a standard war. Considering the interests of non-allies would make winning nearly any war impossible, I think.
“Considering the interests of non-allies would make winning nearly any war impossible.” Wrong. Those interests are our interests. That’s precisely why we need the Strait of Hormuz to remain open. What difference does it make if Hormuz is technically open but the Gulf states cannot export their oil?
Anon: What happens if our competitors in the oil export business can’t export oil? First, our oil exports become more valuable. Second, those competitors put out bids to American companies, among others, to help them build a pipeline that bypasses the Strait.
> First, our oil exports become more valuable. Second, those competitors put out bids to American companies, among others, to help them build a pipeline that bypasses the Strait.
@Philip, spot on, and that’s exactly why I said in my post [1], “If it were up to me, I would have continued the U.S. blockade and maintained military pressure.”
While the economic and political costs to Iran and to much of the world, would have continued, the United States had little to lose if the conflict dragged on.
In addition, concerns about the U.S. being viewed as the “bad guy” do not mean much — we already are the “bad guy” under Trump. And, midterm election losses will happening, whether there is a war or not.
My concern is what happens after Trump leaves office. I expect Iran will use the Strait as leverage and the world will obey because Europe thinks diplomacy and negotiation is the solution.
[1] https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2026/06/17/how-can-the-u-s-benefit-from-the-proposed-iran-peace-deal/#comment-419935
Philg: It is a reasonable prediction, I think, that America’s oil will be more valuable if 20% of the world’s supply is taken out of the market for years. It is also likely that the global economic crisis resulting from the devastation of Gulf oil production/export facilities will reduce the demand for oil. As an interesting aside, America does not have that much oil in reserve (about ten years of production), so perhaps American oil will be gone before the bypassing pipeline/s are completed. The pipeline/s will have to end in the Mediterranean. The Red Sea access is under the close supervision of the not-so-friendly Houthis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
Anon: What would be wrong with a pipeline to the Red Sea and then tankers take oil out through the Suez Canal? That might add $2/barrel for tolls, using ships with shallower draft than the biggest supertankers, etc. Also, what would be wrong with a pipeline to a port in Oman?
Why would there be a “global economic crisis” because whatever oil is required is produced is places other than the Persian Gulf? There is plenty of oil all around the world. People have plenty of alternatives to using oil, e.g., not using energy at all (remember Jimmy Carter and his cardigan?).
(Separately, eventually Iran’s capability to close the Strait would end if their oil industry and electricity industries were ended. If they didn’t have fuel for their boats how would they operate in the Strait? The Germans and Japanese were extremely resourceful, but by the end of World War II they weren’t able to do much other than shoot rifles.)
Unfortunately I’m old enough to remember Jimmy Carter and his cardigan. Mister Rogers would have been a better president and had a nicer cardigan.
What nuclear dust? Muhammad will sweep it up and keep it safe. That’s a promise because he’ll be on double secret probation.
“Vice President JD Vance seemed to tacitly confirm the premise that Iran could be given “access” to a reconstruction fund worth as much as $300 billion.” Reconstruction of what? Destroyed nuclear and military industry capacity and expended ballistic missiles?
The deal is good for Hezbollah, not US.
Stop bitching. Praise the Lord Trump. This is “The Art of the Deal”.
Attacking Iran was Israel’s war, and Netanyahu convinced Trump to join it. The assumption was that it would be a short conflict and that military pressure would create an opportunity for the Iranian people to rise up against the regime [1]. Like Trump, I expected that outcome given the protests and unrest Iran has experienced over the years, but this didn’t happen, which surprised me.
If it were up to me, I would have continued the U.S. blockade and maintained military pressure. The longer the conflict dragged on, the greater the economic and political impact on Iran and the rest of the world, while the direct impact on the U.S. remained limited. Over time, Iran would have been forced to make greater concessions, or more countries might have joined efforts to pressure the regime or an uprising by the Iranian people against the regime.
As things stand today, Iran has lost several key hard-line leaders, and Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. However, both leadership structures and proxy networks can be rebuilt. My concern is that, in a few years, we will be back where we were before this war.
So, what is my takeaway from this war?
Aside from the United States, European countries still believe that diplomacy and negotiation are enough to tame a beast but history has shown otherwise over and over. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a good recent example.
[1] Trump, February 28, 2026: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will probably be your only chance for generations.”
Trump certainly seems to have been right about “only chance for generations”. As noted in the original post, though, I don’t see why we can’t use military power to trim the capabilities of the “Death to America” regime that is now permanently in place.
Phil, very respectfully, you are missing the key takeaways in this GREAT AND LASTING PEACE AGREEMENT!
1) As you well know, our goal of regime change has been realized, but what you may be missing is that the new gay ayatollah is America’s best friend. You might smartly ask how I know that, and I’m here to tell you how. I called up one of the most brilliant people I know, his Excellency George W. Bush, and he let me in on a little secret which he used with Vladimir Putin: “I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy… I was able to get a sense of his soul.” I too tried this with the new gay ayatollah (though he is now missing one eye) and it worked wonders! He is a religious man of the highest order!
2) Now that our new and trustworthy friend is in charge, I felt it was only fair that they quickly receive reparations so they can rebuild their nuclear enrichment facilities and missile stockpiles. Every great country has the right to these things. After all, it was our brilliant military who brought such destruction upon them. Fair is fair, right?
Have I missed anything?
And also, Mr. President, the great people of Iran can now celebrate Butt-Fuckers Pride Month in Tehran, given that our new friend the gay ayatollah is in charge. Also, don’t forget a about the Transvestites too. What a win for the Iranian kindergartners and humanity! You are the best.
Mr. President, have you also been receiving counsel from the brilliant Joseph Robinette Biden and his son Hunter (the “smartest” man in the world)?