If AI is useful why is gold gaining in value compared to the S&P 500?

One of my faith-based beliefs is that productive assets, such as a company that makes widgets, are more valuable than rocks or metal bars. This, of course, hasn’t been true lately. Here’s the price of gold over the period of Bidenflation (we’re still in the “Bidenflation” period even without Biden, since inflation is tough to tame once it gets going, e.g., because government is nearly half the economy and many government payments are automatically indexed to inflation):

On the other hand, the S&P 500 is also way up, especially the Big Tech/AI companies.

What does ChatGPT have to say? The S&P is worth 1.7X all of the above-ground gold:

How about 10 years ago when AI wasn’t functional and productivity gains from AI weren’t baked into investor expectations? The ratio was higher: 2.35X.

So the value of productive assets, which should be enhanced by AI, have actually fallen relative to an unproductive asset, whose value shouldn’t be directly affected by AI.

Does this mean that markets don’t think that AI is useful? Or perhaps they think that AI will make some companies more productive, but it will render so many humans useless that taxes on the productive to fund idle lifestyles for the useless will wipe out any economic gains? Or maybe there is a simpler explanation, e.g., people love gold.

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In Mr. Biden’s Neighborhood only one of your next-door neighbors is a violent criminal

Mostly Peaceful Immigrants, Installment #6734… “Less than 14% of those arrested by ICE in Trump’s 1st year back in office had violent criminal records, document shows” (CBS):

Less than 14% of nearly 400,000 immigrants arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in President Trump’s first year back in the White House had charges or convictions for violent criminal offenses, according to an internal Department of Homeland Security document obtained by CBS News. … Nearly 60% of ICE arrestees over the past year had criminal charges or convictions, the document indicates. But among that population, the majority of the criminal charges or convictions are not for violent crimes.

In other words, at least 1 out of 7 of the arrested migrants was a violent criminal (plus some additional migrants who are violent criminals, but had (1) never been arrested by the police, (2) never been charged with a violent crime by local prosecutors, and/or (3) been convicted of a violent crime only in their home country).

CBS spins this as evidence for the irrationality of Donald Trump’s deportation policies. But who would be enthusiastic living among the 400,000 noble enrichers who’ve been arrested? Imagine a realtor telling a potential house buyer, “only 1 out of 7 of your new neighbors will be violent criminals. So if there are two households of 4 people on either side of you, most likely you’ll have a next-door neighbor who is a violent criminal and 4 or 5 next-door neighbors who are non-violent criminals.”

A hater’s response to CBS on X:

Also in Journalism, the New York Times told us that we’re in a “climate emergency” and that Donald Trump was ending democracy. How do the journalists there prepare for these catastrophes? Are they digging tunnels in Nova Scotia and planning their escape before the Trump Dictatorship v2.0 closes the border? No. They spent at least an entire day digging up and watching 25 years worth of old halftime shows:

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Shout-out to our brothers, sisters, and binary-resisters in Minneapolis

Some gratitude to the good people of Minneapolis. The city’s martyrs of ICE resistance, such as Alex Pretti and Renée Good, are apparently forgotten because Donald Trump briefly posted part of a “king of the jungle” video (apparently suppressed by the righteous who run YouTube, but available from the haters at X). Front page of the NYT today condemning Trump for his racism; nothing anywhere on the front page about Minneapolis, as if the sacrifices were for nothing:

I will celebrate Minneapolis, therefore, with a shout-out to SANUS, headquartered in suburban Minneapolis (a 3-minute drive from the Al-Amaan mosque). Mere hours before we were to our Super Bowl extravaganza guests are arriving, our four-year-old $900 Costco 86″ TV wouldn’t turn on. Thanks to the Sanus BLT3-B1 “tilt 4D” mount, however, I was able to pull the recalcitrant machine from the wall and use my Ph.D. in EECS skills to unplug it and plug it back in. The kids are watching the Puppy Bowl and, if the Costco gods are with us, the party will proceed as planned.

I suppose that we also have to celebrate our brothers and sisters in China (not too many binary-resisters there) for actually making the Sanus BLT3-B1 so that it cost $100 instead of $300.

(I do wish that ICE would detain and deport whoever made the Xfinity XG1v4 box, which I picked up because of its advertised 4K capability. It needs to be power-cycled almost every time that we want to use it and the boot-up process is almost 10 minutes.)

Let this be a cautionary tale for anyone who is considering a super-slim wall-hugging TV mount that requires professional skills and multiple humans to execute a dismount and reach-around. (I guess we could have accomplished the power-cycle via flipping breakers. I’ve never seen a behind-the-TV outlet that is associated with a convenient switch that could be used for a convenient power-cycle.)

Finally, maybe this is the time to start an extended warranty claim on the TV? It was a floor model at Costco and they threw in a five-year warranty from Allstate. The warranty was already used once to replace the TV’s main board, possibly a casualty of a lightning storm putting high voltage into the Xfinity cable (another good reason to go with a fiber connection if you’re lucky enough to live in a place where fiber is available).

Loosely related

From the masjid around the corner from Sanus, a Facebook post from one month after the Gazans’ peaceful October 7, 2023 excursion into Israel:

Allah is the All-Mighty, the Most Merciful, the One Who has the absolute ability to save the oppressed, inflict punishment on the criminals and stop the brutal massacre and genocide happening in Gaza.

It’s a challenging theological question. Allah is “All-Mighty, the Most Merciful” and with “the absolute ability to save the oppressed” (redundant with “All-Mighty”?). Yet the genocide happening in Gaza wasn’t stopped until the Gazans had suffered the loss of most of their military capability. Why did Allah wait two more years and, perhaps more importantly, not assist the Gazans in realizing their military goals, including the destruction of the Zionist entity and the establishment of Hamas rule from the river to the sea?

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Add EBT card readers to televisions?

It’s Super Bowl Sunday, a day when tens of millions Americans with jobs will sit on their sofas instead of working and paying taxes associated with working, e.g., payroll and personal income tax.

We have been gifted by far-sighted and generous politicians whose dreams of an improved cradle-to-grave welfare state for roughly 50 percent of Americans have been spoiled by the laziness of Americans who have jobs but don’t work enough hours to fully fund progressive dreams.

Imagine the boost to tax revenue if working Americans worked all weekend instead of watching games on TV. What if we augmented televisions and streaming services with EBT card readers and only those with active SNAP/EBT/food stamps would be able to watch NFL, NBA, MLB, etc.? (It’s easier to get someone who works 50 hours per week to instead work 60 hours per week than it is to get someone who works 0 hours per week to toil for 10 tedious hours per week.)

I pointed this out yesterday, but it is worth pointing out again today: Santa Clara County just recently issued a mask order to reduce the spread of COVID-19 (below) and today they’re going to host a COVID-19 superspreader event. #Science!

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Bad Bunny at the Super Bowl

As our young football fans clean up the house for tomorrow’s guests and prepare the chip bowls, I wonder if Bad Bunny will sing his big hit “Monaco” tomorrow at the Super Bowl. That should start some conversations at American elementary schools. Sample lyrics:

You don’t know what it’s like to be out at high sea with two hundred hoes
To have the flight attendant suck you off in the sky
What it’s like to throw five hundred thousand at the strip club
That’s why I don’t care about your opinion
That’s why you’re 101 in the top 100, and I’m first
You’re not rappers anymore, now you’re podcasters
My barber charges more than you
Fucking and traveling around the world

When I die, I’m gonna leave a hundred plots of land to my grandchildren
To all my ladies, the butts and the breast
And an F-40 for my haters but without brakes
Why? So they crash
He, so they kill themselves
Red or white, matt black, what you want?
Rest in peace, I’m still on the yacht

I light a phillie, the family is in Monaco

ChatGPT:

It’s not meant to be taken literally; he’s not claiming there are exactly 200 women on the yacht. Instead, it’s an exaggerated fantasy of abundance — so rich, so famous, so untouchable that he could fill a boat with models just for fun.

The phrase “I light a Phillie” (sometimes written “light up a Phillie”) comes from slang referring to lighting a Phillie Blunt, which is a cigar brand (“Phillies”) that’s often used to roll and smoke marijuana.

[Regarding the flight attendant line] That lyric describes conduct that would violate multiple aviation rules and laws. Interference with flight crew (14 CFR §91.11): Anything that distracts or interferes with a crewmember’s duties is prohibited. Engaging a flight attendant in sexual activity would clearly qualify. … Consent & power dynamics: Any sexual activity involving a working crewmember raises serious legal issues, including coercion and workplace sexual misconduct. … Sexual acts in public conveyances: Aircraft are considered public spaces under U.S. law. Sexual activity onboard can constitute indecent exposure or lewd conduct, which is prosecutable.

[The AI seems to be confused regarding the fact that a private jet can have, and in some cases require, flight attendant, e.g., when certified for more than 19 passenger seats.]

Related:

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How’s everyone’s crypto wallet doing?

The news in the Bitcoin world isn’t all bad. The tensor processing units (proprietary Google LLM chips) behind Gemini 3.0 fixed our Bitcoin v. Medical School page just in time for the Big Slide:

(adjusted for Bidenflation, Bitcoin is now down substantially from the mid-March 2021 price when everyone was filled with hope regarding the Biden-Harris administration leading us forward and out of the bad times of the Trump dictatorship (v1.0))

I wonder what this means for the Cirrus waiting list and aircraft values in general. A crypto investor seems like a natural personal airplane customer: (a) independent personality, (b) not averse to irrational purchases, (3) maybe a need to go back and forth to Puerto Rico frequently.

Stake in the ground: I’m not going to sell any Bitcoin!

Separately: “This Bitcoin crash is worse than a divorce. I lost half of my money and my wife is still around.” (source)

Readers: who has favorite X posts to share? I’ll start:

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Mask efficacy Scientists move to Cato and prove that immigration makes us rich

Cato Institute has released a couple of studies recently showing that low-skill immigrants are valuable. (The papers lump together all immigrants, but the majority of immigration in recent decades was low-skill.)

“Immigrant and Native Consumption of Means-Tested Welfare and Entitlement Benefits in 2023” classifies Social Security as “welfare”. The Social Security Administration calculates a real rate of return on taxes paid into the system at 2-4 percent/year for a medium-wage worker and, thus, someone who invested in the S&P 500 and received a 6 percent/year real return would be a “welfare queen”.

“Immigrants’ Recent Effects on Government Budgets: 1994–2023” says that low skill immigrants are the reason that we can afford our magnificent government. Much of the study hinges on birthright citizenship. If a migrant has 10 U.S.-born children and each child costs the Treasury $3 million (public school education, public housing, Medicaid, etc.) the costs of those 10 kids are put into the “native” category. One fun part:

Indirect property tax revenue: The one semidynamic element that we incorporate into the NASEM model is the effect of immigration on housing values. By increasing the demand for housing, immigration increases the value of property, which increases property tax revenues.

In other words, one benefit of open borders is that the tens of millions of people who walk across will drive up the value of residential real estate and, thus, property tax revenue. I.e., contrary to other propaganda in which Econ 101 supply-demand curves don’t apply, the Cato nerds say that a migrant-expanded population drives up housing costs for native-born Americans.

(I don’t think that Cato is correct, incidentally, that more valuable real estate leads to more property tax revenue. The typical city has a budget and then sets a property tax rate sufficient to fund that budget given the total assessed value within the city. If Ayatollah Mamdani drove every successful person from NYC down to Florida and property values in Palm Beach County doubled, the county wouldn’t keep the rates the same and immediately double its spending.)

Cato used to believe in markets. This is plainly no longer true. They didn’t ask the obvious questions, e.g.,

  • If low-skill immigrants are a gold mine, why won’t some other country pay us to send them the migrants whom we are deporting?
  • Why don’t other countries compete with us for migrants, then? If we offer a green card via diversity lottery to a person in Mali, for example, why don’t Australia, Taiwan, Mexico, or Canada jump in and try to persuade that person to go elsewhere? Why don’t Japan and France have offices in northern Mexico offering to fly U.S.-destined migrants to their nations?

What kind of Scientists at Cato could do a study proving Scientifically that every low-skill migrant is worth $1 million despite the fact that no country anywhere in the world has offered to pay even $1 for one of our deported migrants?

The answer arrived via direct message. A rich Democrat who lives in the Boston area recently criticized me for referring to his state as “Maskachusetts” and noted that Science had proven (“data shows”) 500 million to 1 billion lives saved from people wearing their saliva-soaked face rags. How does this relate to Cato’s contrary-to-the-market conclusions regarding immigration?

Nobody right now will pay for Scientific proof that forcing 2-year-olds to wear cloth masks prevents an aerosol respiratory virus from spreading. The Scientists who did that research can now apply their nonbinary selves to proving that low-skill migrants from the world’s least successful and most violent societies are a huge plus for any country wise enough to welcome them.

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How does a no-fault divorce culture play out over two generations?

I’m reading Strangers: A Memoir of Marriage by Belle Burden (wife) and co-starring “James” (a pseudonym for the husband). It’s a good illustration of how the American no-fault divorce culture plays out over two generations.

Generation 0: Both spouses had married grandparents. Divorce was obtainable, but in the typical case only if the parties cooperated and came to an agreement.

Generation 1: Both spouses had divorced parents.

Generation 2: the book.

TL;DR version: The author/wife says that she was 50 when the husband decided to avail himself of our unilateral divorce system. His new sweetheart was “was thirty-five but looked twenty“. She was happy to leave her own husband, breaking up her own kids’ home, and, in the magical world of no-fault, there was no way for the husband to obstruct her plan (in fact, he would likely have had to pay her to execute the plan).

One area of agreement between the parties is on the appropriate level of coronapanic. They abandon NYC for Martha’s Vineyard, but the husband returns to NYC to spend more time with his new sex partner.

By late April, I knew I could not keep hiding the truth from the kids. I texted James that it was time to tell them and that we needed to do it together. We hadn’t spoken in several weeks. He said he thought it would be better if I told them alone. Initially, I agreed with him. I was afraid that he would expose us to COVID. He was not in quarantine; he was having an affair in the middle of New York City. We decided we would do a family Zoom call to break the news. James’s boss texted me the next day. He was a kind man, and a friend to both of us. He wrote that he understood why I was angry, but I needed to allow James to be there to tell our kids. He spoke from experience, having been divorced, having broken the news to children himself. He wrote that he was giving James his seaplane and pilot to fly to the Vineyard.

James landed on the Vineyard just before 2 p.m. He drove down our driveway in a Jeep our caretaker had left for him at the airport, a model similar to the one he’d driven onto the ferry a month earlier. He walked up the brick path to our door. He wore a mask, so I couldn’t see his whole face, but my first thought was that he seemed happy, his step brisk and optimistic. He was carrying an empty duffel bag over his shoulder.

He said, “Mom and I are separated and we’re going to divorce. I haven’t been happy.”

James turned to me and said, “I’m starving, can you make me a sandwich?”

A lot to unpack here. If there truly was a “seaplane” why did James go to Connecticut to start his journey (a seaplane can pull up to a dock on E. 23rd St.) and then why was there a landing at the MVY airport? The principal fear 8 weeks into coronapanic is not that the children will be harmed by separation and divorce litigation, but of some tweenage kids getting infected by a virus that was killing Maskachusetts residents at a median age of 82.

One question is why the U.S. still has wedding ceremonies with vows exchanged. If, by cultural and legal design, the marriage lasts only until one partner thinks that a better deal is available, why do friends and family have to gather and sit through the charade of a wedding? If James can say to a judge “I discovered that I preferred banging 35-year-old women to sleeping with a 50-year-old woman” and get what he asks for (a divorce), what stops people from laughing when they hear the vows?

(Note that even if New York family courts are aggressively biased against men, James could still come out ahead financially by swapping out the 50-year-old wife to marry the 35-year-old. He just needs the courts to be consistent, for his girlfriend to divorce her husband, and for the husband she’s divorcing to earn more money than James. In that case, everything that James loses to his ex-wife will be made up for in child support revenue paid to the new 35-year-old wife by her former husband.)

Loosely related, I’m proud to have been interviewed by the New York Times: “I Let My Wife Have an Affair. Do I Have to Console Her Now That It’s Over?”

(The answer turns out to be Yes: “it may be worth your both talking this all through with a counselor” (i.e., “Yes, and also you will have to pay for assistance in consoling her”))

Admission: While the NYT story is genuine, I ripped off the above introduction from this X parody account.

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Gemini and Antigravity fixed the Bill Gates Personal Wealth Clock

Bill Gates has been in the news lately.

“Melinda French Gates says latest allegations about Bill Gates’ antics with Epstein dredge up ‘very painful’ memories” (New York Post):

Melinda French Gates said that new details of ex-husband Bill Gates’ alleged antics with Jeffrey Epstein dredge up “very painful times” from their 27-year marriage — and have left her “so happy to be away from all the muck that was there.” … “It’s personally hard whenever those details come up, right? Because it brings back memories of some very, very painful times in my marriage,” she told NPR’s “Wild Card” podcast on Tuesday.

“I’m able to take my own sadness and look at those young girls and say, ‘My God, how did that happen to those girls?’” she said.

There’s a video with Melinda Gates where she smiles as she talks about the “sadness”. Keep in mind that, via a personal relationship with the boss, she made more money than the entire team of software engineers who built Microsoft Windows. Perhaps this has occasioned some “sadness” among those who worked 100 hours per week?

(Also, she implies that Bill Gates was having sex with “young girls” (a “young girl” would be 10? 12?). Is there any evidence of that in the Epstein files? Epstein pleaded guilty to partying with paid women as young as 16 back in 2008, but is there anything definitive in these files or elsewhere to suggest that, post-2008, “young girls” were having sex in exchange for cash or other inducements with Bill Gates or any other Epstein friend? A lot of Americans seem to be energetic when it comes to condemning Jeffrey Epstein and his circle. They say that they’re passionate about “the victims”, but Epstein died in 2019 and any “victims” are adults today. There are teenage prostitutes working right now in various states and countries. The folks who energetically condemn Jeffrey Epstein don’t try to do anything about current teenage prostitutes. If they live in Maskachusetts, for example, they don’t lobby to raise the age of consent from 16 to 18 or 21.)

Thirty-one years ago, as an envious impoverished graduate student, I developed the Bill Gates Personal Wealth Clock:

The clock had broken because the U.S. Census Bureau put in additional barriers to scraping their popclock and the sites for getting stock quotes kept changing.

I fed Antigravity on a copy of the entire tree behind my web site and, incredibly, it/Gemini was able to answer questions about AOLserver configuration, Tcl API code, relational database structure, etc. It suggested fixes to the software that actually worked, e.g.,

set population_html [exec curl -s -L \
-H "User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/120.0.0.0 Safari/537.36" \
-H "Accept: application/json, text/javascript, */*; q=0.01" \
-H "Accept-Language: en-US,en;q=0.9" \
-H "Referer: https://www.census.gov/popclock/" \
-H "X-Requested-With: XMLHttpRequest" \
"https://www.census.gov/popclock/data/population.php/us"]

for scraping the Census web site.

I wonder if the page is conceptually broken. For a couple of decades, the page seemed to track reasonably well with (1) reports of Bill Gates’s personal stash, and (2) reports of total assets in the Gates Foundation (I considered them both to be forms of wealth for him since he controlled the foundation).

Right now, though, the grand total of $960 billion seems to be off the reservation (and we don’t need Elizabeth Warren to tell us how bad that is). I’m wondering if the explanation is Microsoft issuing shares like crazy to employees, thus diluting Bill Gates’s ownership percentage. The Google says that Gates is worth about $100 billion personally and the Gates Foundation total assets is about the same. That would put his total post-divorce wealth at $200 billion, not $500 billion. The Gates Foundation has supposedly paid out (“squandered”?) roughly $83 billion (mostly money extracted from American computer users and handed over to Africans without the U.S. Treasury ever collected a dime of capital gains tax). That still gets us to only about $300 billion. How did the discrepancy arise? Could it be that Gates was diversifying and paying capital gains taxes over the years, thus getting the mediocre returns of the S&P 500 instead of the Mag 7 returns of Microsoft? Or did he do what all of our other noble billionaires do and borrow against his appreciated stock to fund lifestyle? Google AI says that “he has borrowed hundreds of millions against his assets … [and] Despite using tax-efficient strategies, Gates has publicly advocated for higher capital gains taxes for the wealthy.”

Related (simple non-RDBMS web apps from the same era):

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Professor Dr. ChatGPT, Ph.D. in Dance Theory

In order to be cruel to MIT students, tortured daily with math and physics problems that make them feel stupid, the flight planning lecture of our FAA Ground School class covers a hypothetical trip from MIT to Bennington College in Vermont. Every year I try to pick what seems like the easiest class at Bennington and remind them that, had they chosen a school more wisely, they could be getting credit for it. This year I picked “Ghostly Body- The Art of Absence”:

I stressed that they’d need to “develop new understanding of the presence of absence” (the class requires no previous dance experience so it is unclear what the students’ old understanding of the presence of absence might be).

Before I highlighted this as an example of the presence of absence of academic and intellectual rigor, I questioned ChatGPT 5.2: “Please explain to me your understanding of the presence of absence as it relates to dance.” What came back was, I think, worthy of a Ph.D. in Dance Theory:

In dance, the “presence of absence” names a paradox: what is not physically there can be as perceptible, meaningful, and active as what is. Absence is not emptiness; it is a charged field that shapes attention, sensation, and interpretation.

Here are the main ways this idea operates in dance.


1. The Body as a Trace, Not Just a Fact

Dance exists only while it is happening. Once a movement ends, it survives as afterimage, memory, or expectation.

  • A lifted arm leaves a trace in the viewer’s perception even after it lowers.
  • A dancer who exits the stage continues to “occupy” space through memory.
  • Stillness is not neutral—it holds the residue of previous motion and the promise of what might come.

In this sense, dance is always haunted by what has just happened and what is about to happen.


2. Negative Space as Active Partner

Absence appears physically as space:

  • The gap between dancers
  • Empty areas of the stage
  • The air carved by movement

Choreography often makes absence legible by framing it:

  • A duet defined by distance rather than touch
  • A solo surrounded by emptiness
  • Movement that gestures toward, but never reaches, another body

The audience reads these voids as intentional, emotionally loaded presences.


3. Stillness and Non-Movement

Not moving is one of the clearest embodiments of the presence of absence.

Stillness can signal:

  • Withheld action
  • Resistance
  • Grief or loss
  • Listening or readiness

Because dance trains us to expect motion, the absence of motion becomes loud. The body remains present, but movement is absent—creating tension and meaning.


4. The Absent Body

Dance frequently invokes bodies that are not there:

  • A partner imagined but never visible
  • A former dancer referenced by repetition of their choreography
  • Cultural or ancestral bodies remembered through gesture

This is especially powerful in works dealing with loss, exile, trauma, or memory. The dancer becomes a conduit for someone else’s absence.


5. Temporality and Ephemerality

Unlike visual art objects, dance disappears.

  • You cannot fully “return” to a dance—only to documentation or memory.
  • Each performance replaces the last.
  • The dance’s absence after the performance is part of its meaning.

The presence of absence here is existential: dance is disappearance made visible.


6. Audience Perception: Filling the Void

Absence activates the viewer.

When something is withheld:

  • The audience projects meaning
  • Memory and imagination complete the work
  • The viewer becomes a participant

What is absent invites interpretation more strongly than what is fully shown.


7. Philosophical Undercurrent

Philosophically, this idea resonates with phenomenology:

  • We perceive bodies not just as objects, but as intentional beings
  • Absence is felt through expectation and anticipation
  • Meaning emerges in the gap between perception and completion

In dance, this gap is continuously exposed.


In Summary

The presence of absence in dance means that:

  • What is missing can be felt
  • What has disappeared still acts
  • What does not move still speaks
  • What is not shown still shapes meaning

Dance is not only about bodies in motion, but about what motion leaves behind.

If you’d like, I can also explore this through:

  • A specific choreographer (e.g., Cunningham, Pina Bausch, Forsythe)
  • Somatic practice or improvisation
  • Performance philosophy
  • Or how absence operates differently in ballet vs. contemporary dance
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