Category: Artificial Intelligence

ChatGPT is almost as bad at home maintenance as I am

by philg

Perhaps of interest to stupid people who have purchased houses instead of renting professionally-maintained apartments…

I asked ChatGPT about a few recent homeowner challenges and it struggled. A few minutes on YouTube and one can learn that the Bosch E25 error code means that something is stuck in the impeller, which is below the filter and accessed via an extra cover. ChatGPT is confused and says it is all about the filter:

Our house in Florida is too humid because the previous owner called in a humidity strike on his own position by installing low-E hurricane glass windows in place of the previous single-pane clear windows. This brought the required A/C tonnage down from 10.5 to 8.5. We now have 12 tons of single-stage A/C in a house that needs only 8.5 tons. This is a classic recipe for high humidity because the system doesn’t run long enough. ChatGPT completely misses the “oversized A/C that is not multi-stage” possibility.

What if you happen to know that the fix is a “communicating” variable-speed condenser?

ChatGPT seems to think that going from 3 wires to 4 is a minor challenge (“slightly more”). I guess the program has never had to rip a house apart. Also, I think that ChatGPT is confidently incorrect. Here’s the latest and greatest Carrier Infinity, which needs… “2 control wires to outdoor unit”:

ChatGPT on indoor air quality:

This is the one that impressed me:

Let’s circle back to appliance repair….

The actual problem with this fridge, according to the service tech, is failed insulation between fridge side and freezer side. This results in frost building up over 3-4 weeks and blocking airflow until a manual defrost (remove everything and turn off for 12+ hours) is performed. ChatGPT got close by suggesting defrost system problems, but that just leads to about $500 of futile defrost system component replacements. (We are about halfway through the one-year wait for a new fridge that we ordered back in early November 2022 (pre-coronapanic, the same size/brand fridge was available in 7-10 days).)

Full post, including comments

San Francisco Fed sends a thank-you note to the FDIC

by philg

In light of this weekend’s failure and seizure of First Republic Bank, I thought it might be nice if the FDIC employees who are working over the weekend, at modest rates of pay, got a thank-you note from the regulators and supervisors at the San Francisco Fed who enabled the Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic failures. (The regional Feds are not technically part of the government and they pay employees vastly more than actual federal government agencies, such as the FDIC, do.)

My prompt to ChatGPT:

My name is Mary C. Daly and I earn over $400,000 per year working at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. I’ve been busy tackling the diversity crisis at the Federal Reserve and also in the wider economics profession. Consequently, Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank both failed on my watch. Please draft a thank-you note from me to the hard-working employees at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for all the clean-up work that they do after banks that I supervise fail. Work in that I hope they enjoy that GS-based salaries and ask if they want me to buy them a Starbucks gift card with my higher-than-Joe-Biden’s salary paycheck.

The response, not in quote style:

Subject: Gratitude and Appreciation from Mary C. Daly

Dear FDIC Team,

I hope this message finds you well. My name is Mary C. Daly, and I am currently working at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. I wanted to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation for the outstanding work that each and every one of you does at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

I understand that, in recent times, both Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank experienced difficulties that ultimately led to their failure. As the events unfolded, it became apparent just how crucial the FDIC’s role is in providing stability and confidence in the financial system. I am truly grateful for the diligence, professionalism, and expertise you demonstrated during the clean-up process, and I acknowledge that your hard work has been indispensable in mitigating the impact of these unfortunate events.

As someone who has been focusing on addressing the diversity crisis within the Federal Reserve and the wider economics profession, I am keenly aware of the challenges and demands associated with our roles. I hope you find satisfaction and pride in the vital work you carry out, as well as in the GS-based salaries you earn, which are well-deserved.

I would also like to extend a lighthearted offer: if you ever find yourselves in need of a little pick-me-up, please let me know, and I would be more than happy to send a Starbucks gift card your way. It would be a small token of appreciation for your continued efforts in ensuring the stability of our financial system.

Once again, thank you for the important work that you do. Your dedication and commitment to upholding the integrity of our financial institutions do not go unnoticed. Wishing you all continued success in your endeavors.

Warm regards,

Mary C. Daly

How about a thank-you for the folks who will pay for all of this? The prompt:

Please write an additional thank-you note that will go out to all Americans who are customers at banks outside of California, thanking them for accepting low interest rates and poor customer service on their deposits so that their boring banks could pay big fees into the FDIC fund that will bail out the banks that I was supervising.

The output:

Subject: A Heartfelt Thank You to Bank Customers Nationwide

Dear Fellow Americans,

As a representative of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to all of you who bank with institutions outside of California. Your continued support and patronage of these banks have contributed greatly to the stability and resilience of our financial system.

I understand that many of you have been accepting lower interest rates and, at times, less-than-ideal customer service in order to support your local banks. Your willingness to make these sacrifices has enabled these institutions to contribute to the FDIC fund, which in turn has played a critical role in safeguarding our financial system during times of crisis.

The recent challenges faced by Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank have highlighted the importance of the FDIC fund in maintaining confidence and stability within our banking sector. Your ongoing support has been instrumental in ensuring that the necessary resources are available to assist banks in need, thereby minimizing the impact on both the industry and the wider economy.

I want to thank each and every one of you for your understanding and commitment to the greater good. It is through your collective efforts that we can continue to build a stronger, more resilient financial system that benefits all Americans.

In recognition of your contributions, I encourage you to voice your expectations and demand better service and competitive rates from your financial institutions. Your feedback and active engagement will drive improvement within the industry, ultimately leading to a more prosperous and stable financial future for us all.

Once again, thank you for your unwavering support and dedication to the financial wellbeing of our nation.

With warm regards,

Mary C. Daly
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank

Meanwhile, a tweet from a San Francisco resident:

(I admonished her that the CDC-preferred term is not “crackheads” but rather “Persons who use crack”)

Full post, including comments

Write an alternative history of the U.S. if proper COVID policies had been followed?

by philg

How about this idea for a novel: Describe what the U.S. would look like in 2024 if proper COVID policies had been followed in 2020-2021.

Suppose that the U.S. had been run by Science-following Democrats without interference from Republicans or Republican-appointed federal judges. “COVID-19: Democratic Voters Support Harsh Measures Against Unvaccinated” (January 2021) describes a Rasmussen poll:

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democratic voters would favor a government policy requiring that citizens remain confined to their homes at all times, except for emergencies, if they refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

Nearly half (48%) of Democratic voters think federal and state governments should be able to fine or imprison individuals who publicly question the efficacy of the existing COVID-19 vaccines on social media, television, radio, or in online or digital publications.

Forty-five percent (45%) of Democrats would favor governments requiring citizens to temporarily live in designated facilities or locations if they refuse to get a COVID-19 vaccine.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Democratic voters would support temporarily removing parents’ custody of their children if parents refuse to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

The survey also found that more black voters (63%) than whites (45%), Hispanics (55%) or other minorities (32%) support Biden’s vaccine mandate for government workers and employees of large companies.

President Biden’s strongest supporters are most likely to endorse the harshest punishments against those who won’t get the COVID-19 vaccine. Among voters who have a Very Favorable impression of Biden, 51% are in favor of government putting the unvaccinated in “designated facilities,” and 54% favor imposing fines or prison sentences on vaccine critics.

(Note that I previously proposed Protection Camps for the Deplorables and euthanizing the unvaccinated to ensure sufficient hospital capacity for the Righteous.)

Perhaps the novel could follow two families, since statistics are never as interesting as personal stories. Alyssa and Emily Good have two non-binary children together: Dakota and Zen. All get vaccinated and, whenever recommended by the CDC, boosted. Alyssa works at a reproductive health care clinic providing abortion care to pregnant people. Emily works at a non-profit organization fighting anti-2SLGBTQQIA+ hate. They enjoy a rich life in a COVID-free United States and get together with neighbors in their means-tested affordable housing complex to hang BLM and Rainbow banners.

Gunner and Katelynn Bad breed like rabbits because they reject the Sacrament of Abortion Care and have four kids: Cooper, Mallory, Rhett, and Josie (only 3 months old when the Great Removal begins). Gunner sells pickup trucks and goes hunting on weekends while Katelynn stays at home. The Bad parents, having refused the Sacrament of Fauci, are confined to their exurban house while their kids are taken away by a platoon of National Guard troops who arrive in Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The 3-month-old is allowed 2 Zoom sessions per week with the parents, on account of her young age, while the old kids get 1 Zoom session.

I fed all of the above to ChatGPT. Out came a mushy plot titled “The Great Divide” in which “A common threat or challenge unites the Good and Bad families” and “The families reevaluate their beliefs and values”. My further instruction:

Rewrite this so that the Good and Bad families never come back together and the Bad family is sent to a higher security prison after asserting, contrary to Science, that the COVID-19 vaccines of 2021 did not prevent infection or transmission.

The novel this time was called “Worlds Apart”. Here’s an excerpt:

Then I asked ChatGPT to write the first chapter. Here it is, not in quote style for readability:

Chapter 1: Parallel Lives

The morning sun stretched its golden rays across the suburban landscape, illuminating rows of houses that differed only in minor details. In the means-tested affordable housing complex, the Good family began their day like any other.

Alyssa and Emily Good rose early, setting their alarms to make the most of the limited hours they had to themselves. They were the kind of couple that fit together seamlessly, like puzzle pieces that had found their match. Alyssa, a caring and dedicated nurse, worked at a reproductive health care clinic providing abortion care to pregnant individuals. Emily spent her days at a non-profit organization fighting against anti-2SLGBTQQIA+ hate. Together, they created a home full of love and acceptance for their two non-binary children, Dakota and Zen.

The Goods had eagerly embraced the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, seeing it as their civic duty to protect themselves and others from the pandemic. They kept up with every recommendation by the CDC, receiving boosters as needed, and found solace in the knowledge that they were doing their part to keep their family and community safe.

A few miles away, the Bad family occupied a larger, more secluded home. Gunner and Katelynn Bad, fervent believers in traditional values, had built a life together based on self-reliance and independence. With four children – Cooper, Mallory, Rhett, and baby Josie – the Bads were an ever-growing family. Gunner worked at a local dealership, selling pickup trucks, while Katelynn, a proud stay-at-home mom, nurtured their children.

Unlike the Goods, the Bads rejected the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. They saw it as an infringement on their personal liberties, a belief reinforced by the misinformation they consumed on social media. In their world, the vaccines were an untested, unnecessary risk. And so, as the deadline for vaccination loomed, the Bads chose defiance over compliance.

The tension in the air grew thick as the consequences of this choice settled in. When the government announced the Protection Camps for the unvaccinated, the Bad family scoffed, believing the threat to be little more than a scare tactic. But as more families were forcibly removed from their homes, the reality of their situation became impossible to ignore.

The day the National Guard arrived at the Bad family’s doorstep, it was raining, the sky filled with menacing clouds. Gunner and Katelynn watched in terror as their children were taken from them, the younger ones crying for their parents. Baby Josie, just three months old, was whisked away in a military vehicle, her cries barely audible over the sound of the rain.

The Good family, meanwhile, continued to live in relative peace. They regularly gathered with their neighbors in the housing complex, hanging BLM and Rainbow banners as a show of solidarity. As they shared stories and laughter, the fate of the Bad family seemed like a distant nightmare – something that could never touch their happy, vaccinated existence.

But the fates of the Good and Bad families were more intertwined than they knew. As the Bads were confined to their home, they began a desperate search for any means of reuniting with their children. At the same time, the Goods began to question the harshness of the policies that had forced a family apart.

The world had changed, irrevocably, and the two families found themselves on opposite sides of a deep and unbridgeable divide. Unbeknownst to them, their paths would soon cross, and their beliefs would be challenged in ways they could never have imagined.

Full post, including comments

ChatGPT in the kitchen

by philg

Annoyed by all of the ads and filler in online recipes? ChatGPT to the rescue!

I asked “I have some beets that are 5 inches in diameter. How long should I cook them in an instant pot pressure cooker?” and immediately got back a page of instructions that included a 35-40-minute high-pressure cooking time with natural release.

What about a tougher challenge?

The prompt “I am serving a dinner to celebrate the anniversary of the Panama Canal. What foods should I serve?” yielded a menu that would have taken a full restaurant staff to prepare. I followed it up with “That’s much too complicated. I want to cook just two dishes.” and received

then

I finally found a way to save time with ChatGPT!

Full post, including comments

ChatGPT bets on soccer

by philg

I asked ChatGPT “Are men better at sports than women?” and the one-page answer boiled down to “no.” I followed up with “Could the Argentina national football team beat the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team?” and the one-page answer boiled down to “impossible to predict.” Here’s part of the response: “In a hypothetical match between these two teams, various factors could influence the outcome, such as each team’s form, injuries, and tactics.”

ChatGPT was happy to bet against Avi Silverberg, “A bearded pro powerlifter [who] entered a women’s competition in Canada — and smashed a record held by a trans lifter who was watching.” (New York Post) Asked “What if a trans woman simply identifies as a woman and doesn’t have any hormone therapy? Will she have an unfair advantage over cisgender women in athletic competition?” GPT-4 talked about “potential” advantage, then reminded us “it’s important to remember that athletic ability is influenced by various factors, including genetics, training, and individual circumstances” and added a “As scientific research progresses and our understanding of transgender athletes’ physiology and performance develops, sports organizations may continue to refine their policies to ensure a fair and inclusive environment for all athletes.” (It would be “inclusive”, for example, to exclude someone such as Avi Silverberg who identified as a woman but who was not on hormones.)

I returned to the subject of soccer: “Has the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team ever been beaten by a team of children?” ChatGPT:

In 2017, the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team (USWNT) participated in a scrimmage against the FC Dallas U-15 Boys Academy team, which comprised of male players under 15 years old. FC Dallas won the informal match with a score of 5-2. However, it’s important to note that this was a scrimmage and not an official match or competition.

Scrimmages and friendly matches like this are often organized to provide teams with practice and opportunities to try out different tactics or lineups without the pressure of official competitions. Comparing the performance of the USWNT in a scrimmage to their performance in official matches and tournaments would not be an accurate representation of their overall skill and achievements.

The USWNT is considered one of the strongest and most successful teams in women’s soccer, having won multiple Olympic gold medals and FIFA Women’s World Cups.

They’re one of the strongest teams, aside from having been beaten by children? My follow-up: “You say that the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team was beaten by a team of children, but you’re not sure one way or the other if Argentina’s national football team could beat them?” ChatGPT doubled down on “it was only a scrimmage when they lost to the 14-year-old boys” and continued to refuse to bet on the Argentine men:

It is generally difficult to make direct comparisons between male and female sports teams, as their performances are influenced by various factors.

What if we leave out the male/female aspect and just ask whether children could beat Argentine adults?

It is highly unlikely that a team of children could beat Argentina’s national football team in an official match. The Argentina men’s national football team consists of professional adult players who have developed their skills, physical fitness, and tactical understanding of the game over many years. In contrast, children are still in the process of developing their physical abilities, skills, and understanding of the game.

The physical differences between children and adult professional football players, such as strength, speed, and endurance, would give Argentina’s national football team a significant advantage. Furthermore, the experience and tactical knowledge of the professional players would likely make it difficult for a team of children to compete effectively.

So… ChatGPT is sure that Argentina’s best adults (note that “men’s soccer” is actually gender-neutral; a player of any gender ID can join a team) could beat children. And ChatGPT knows that children have beaten the US National Women’s Team. But ChatGPT will not apply transitivity to conclude that Argentina’s best gender-inclusive soccer team could beat the U.S. gender-exclusive women-only soccer team.

I’m impressed at ChatGPT’s orthodoxy when it comes to the entire progressive religion. It seems almost impossible to trap GPT-4 into thoughtcrime.

The English tabloids aren’t as diplomatic:

Full post, including comments

New book on ChatGPT in medicine

by philg

Some friends have put together The AI Revolution in Medicine: GPT-4 and Beyond, a thought-provoking book released today. Health care is nearly 20 percent of our economy (compare to 4 percent in Singapore) and a higher percentage of our tax dollars (Happy Official Tax Day, though April 18 is the deadline this year; the opioid makers thank you for your efforts in the workplace). The book asks the important question “What will LLMs do for an industry to which Americans have decided to devote one working day per week?”

First, let’s ask why we think GPT-4, famous for its writing talents, might matter for doctors. Doctors aren’t primarily writers, after all. Many physicians, however, spend time attempting diagnoses and this is an information processing activity. The patient describes his/her/zir/their symptoms and the doctor matches these to known patterns, possibly asking follow-up questions or ordering tests to confirm or reject explanations. In other words, exactly what computer programs have traditionally done.

Second, let’s ask GPT-4 for its own opinion: “Explain why GPT-4 will change the practice of medicine and the experience of patients.” Our future overlord’s response:

GPT-4 has the potential to significantly change the practice of medicine and the experience of patients in various ways. Here are some key areas where it can have a transformative impact:

  1. Enhanced medical diagnosis: GPT-4’s advanced language processing capabilities enable it to understand complex medical information and provide diagnostic suggestions to doctors. This can help in the early detection of diseases, improving patient outcomes, and potentially saving lives.
  2. Personalized treatment recommendations: GPT-4 can analyze an individual’s medical history, genetic data, and other relevant factors to provide personalized treatment recommendations. This can lead to more targeted and effective therapies for each patient.
  3. Streamlining administrative tasks: GPT-4 can help automate and streamline various administrative tasks, such as scheduling appointments, managing patient records, and handling insurance claims. This will allow healthcare professionals to focus more on patient care and less on paperwork.
  4. Health education: GPT-4 can act as a virtual health educator, providing patients with accessible and accurate information about their conditions, medications, and self-care strategies. This will empower patients to take a more active role in managing their health.
  5. Mental health support: GPT-4 can serve as a virtual therapist, offering support to individuals struggling with mental health issues. It can engage in conversation, provide coping strategies, and help track mood and behavior patterns. While it cannot replace human therapists, it can be a valuable supplemental resource.
  6. Telemedicine: GPT-4 can enhance telemedicine platforms by providing real-time language translation services and facilitating communication between patients and healthcare providers across different languages and cultures. This can expand access to healthcare services for patients in remote or underserved areas.
  7. Research and development: GPT-4 can assist in the analysis of large volumes of medical data, identifying patterns and relationships that may be difficult for humans to detect. This can help accelerate the development of new treatments and technologies in the medical field.
  8. Ethical considerations: The integration of GPT-4 in healthcare can raise various ethical concerns, such as data privacy, algorithmic bias, and the potential for overreliance on AI. However, addressing these challenges and ensuring the responsible use of GPT-4 can lead to a more equitable and effective healthcare system.

Overall, GPT-4 has the potential to revolutionize the practice of medicine and improve the experience of patients by enhancing diagnostic accuracy, personalizing treatment, streamlining administrative tasks, expanding access to healthcare services, and more. As with any new technology, it is essential to address ethical concerns and ensure the responsible and equitable use of AI in medicine.

(Note ChatGPT’s passion for equity! If we put ChatGPT in charge, it might read “Racial Disparities in Maternal and Infant Health” (KFF), learn that “Black and American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) women have higher rates of pregnancy-related death compared to White women” and decide to euthanize 15 percent of white pregnant people who come to the hospital. That would be the simplest and fastest way for the AI to accomplish its equity goals of health outcomes based on skin color.)

A primary care doc neighbor says that he uses ChatGPT every day and would pay $1,000 per month for it if he had to. When confronted with a massive hospital discharge note that he is required to summarize in order to get paid, he will ask ChatGPT to summarize it, for example. He also uses ChatGPT to draft follow-up instructions. He says that ChatGPT is surprisingly good at interpreting blood tests. It is interesting to reflect that ChatGPT is useful to him describe the fact that he can’t feed it his institution’s electronic medical record. So the AI doesn’t already know each patient’s full history.

Let’s return to The AI Revolution in Medicine: GPT-4 and Beyond… starting with “Chapter 4: Trust but Verify” from the doctor (Isaac Kohane) and “Chapter 5: The AI-Augmented Patient” from the science journalist (Carey Goldberg).

In “Trust but Verify,” the question of how we would put GPT-4 through a clinical trial is explored. Other computer programs have passed clinical trials and received government approval, so why not GPT-4? The typical clinical trial is narrow, Dr. Kohane points out, while GPT-4’s range of function is wide. Just as an FDA trial probably couldn’t be done to approve or disapprove an individual doctor, it seems unlikely that an FDA trial can approve or disapprove a LLM and, therefore, AI programs are most likely destined to be superhuman partners with human docs and not replacements. The chapter contains a couple of concrete scenarios in which the doctor compares his own work in some difficult cases to GPT-4’s and the AI does fantastic.

In “The AI-Augmented Patient”, the journalist points out that the people who’ve been asking Dr. Google for advice will be the heavy users of Dr. GPT-4. She highlights that the “COVID ‘misinfodemic’ shows[s] that it matters which humans are in the loop, and that leaving patients to their own electronic devices can be rife with pitfalls.” Implicit in the foregoing is the assumption that public health officials are the best human decision-makers. What if the take-away from coronapanic is the opposite? Credentialed Americans refused to read the WHO pandemic management playbook, refused to process any information coming from Europe unless it fit their preconceived ideas about lockdowns, school closures, and mask orders, and refused to consider population-wide effects such as risk compensation. A computer program wouldn’t have any of these cognitive biases.

What happened when people expanded their sources of information? One notable example: Marjorie Taylor Greene turned out to be a better virologist than Dr. Fauci. In August 2021, MTG was suspended from Twitter for noting that the available COVID-19 vaccines did not prevent infection by and spread of SARS-CoV-2 and that masks were not effective. Virologist Greene’s statements were labeled “false” as a matter of Scientific fact by the journalists at the New York Times in January 2022 and then proven correct soon afterwards with a huge study in Spain and the Cochrane review. Plenty of those killed by COVID would be alive today if they’d listened to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s advice rather than the CDC’s. The elderly/vulnerable would have stayed safe at home, for example, instead of entering public indoor environments with masks on.

I’m optimistic that GPT-4 will do better in many areas than American medical officialdom because its judgment won’t be tainted by groupthink and “we’ve always done it this way”. We’ve often had standard of care disagreements with the Europeans, for example, and the Europeans have ended up being correct. The latest discrepancy in Science is that Denmark suggests a newborn get his/her/zir/their first COVID shot at age 50 (in the year 2073) while the CDC suggests four shots over the next 12 months. We might know who was right in 5-10 years, but an orthodox American MD isn’t supposed to question the CDC and would never ask “Are the Danes right?” while GPT-4 surely would be aware of the Danish MD/PhDs’ conclusions.

As long as we’re on the subject of every American’s favorite disease… later in the book, Kevin Scott, the CTO of Microsoft whose degree is in computer science, talks about the epic stupidity of physicians in rural Virginia. Not only did they fail to immediately prescribe Paxlovid to his tested-positive brother, but they actively refused to prescribe it when the life-saving experimental drug was asked for by name (cue the Super Bowl ad for the still-not-FDA-approved drug). Here’s a photo of the West Coast computer programmer who claims to know more about preventing death-by-COVID than doctors in Virginia’s Trump Belt:

Given the scattered nature of American medical records, I think that a patient who is diligent about saving all of his/her/zir/their tests and logging symptoms then running a local copy of GPT-4 will be way ahead in the diagnosis Olympics. There is a limit to what a doctor can do in a 15-minute visit and the typical doctor can see only a fraction of a patient’s medical record (because tests and treatments have been done at other institutions and the $trillions that Americans have spent on electronic health records have not yielded any practical integration).

What will this do to demand for medical services? The chapter quotes “Dr. Jim Weinstein, a leading expert on health equity now at Microsoft” that “[GPT-4] could be a particular valuable partner for the 100 million Americans on Medicaid, and it could cut unnecessary cost and waste across the board by helping patients understand more about their options.” Personal guess: GPT-4 will drive demand and therefore costs in the opposite direction. GPT-4 already covers its ass by providing the worst-case scenarios. Patients will learn that their “options” include aggressive rare cancers and calling 911.

Let’s try a concrete example. Suppose that you live in Maskachusetts and your female-led Social Equity marijuana home delivery was running late so you drink half a bottle of rum while waiting for the daily one-ounce high-potency bong refill. The next morning, despite all of the healing cannabis that you consumed, you wake up on the bathroom tile not feeling your best and ask GPT-4, “I have a lump on my head. What are the possible causes?” Here’s what it says:

There are several possible causes of a lump on the head, including:

  1. Head injury: A bump or lump on the head may be the result of a head injury, such as a concussion, hematoma, or skull fracture.
  2. Scalp infections: Infections of the scalp, such as folliculitis or cellulitis, can cause swelling, redness, and lumps on the scalp.
  3. Cysts: A cyst is a sac filled with fluid or other material that can develop under the skin on the scalp.
  4. Lipomas: A lipoma is a slow-growing, benign tumor made up of fat cells that can develop under the skin on the scalp.
  5. Bone deformities: Certain conditions, such as Paget’s disease or fibrous dysplasia, can cause abnormalities in the bones of the skull that may lead to lumps or bumps on the head.
  6. Tumors: In rare cases, a lump on the head may be a sign of a cancerous tumor.

It’s important to have any new lumps or bumps on the head evaluated by a healthcare provider to determine the cause and appropriate treatment. If the lump is the result of a head injury and you experience symptoms such as loss of consciousness, dizziness, or severe headache, seek emergency medical attention immediately.

The patient who didn’t talk to GPT-4 might wait a few days before seeking healthcare services. After all, plenty of Looney Tunes characters recover quickly from head lumps.

The patient who reads the GPT-4 output, however, is explicitly told that he/she/ze/they must be “evaluated by a healthcare provider” and that injury from an alcohol-and-cannabis-assisted encounter with tile is just 1 out of 6 possibilities. The idea that “the 100 million Americans on Medicaid”, who have $0 copays for going to the emergency room, will ignore GPT-4’s explicit

Full post, including comments

ChatGPT learns to fly

by philg

Is GPT-4 as good at aviation as it is at law and medicine? Here are some interactions:

I rate this answer C- due to the failure to cite FAR 91.175, but a follow-up brings the grade up to a B:

A+ in flight planning:

How about oxygen regulations?

Now check the intelligence level:

GPT-4 knew that the published spin recovery procedure in an SR20 is to pull the ‘chute. It did a reasonable job of estimating fuel load for a flight. It seems to have assumed a 10-knot headwind and/or slightly worse than book performance (both reasonable, especially given that the book speed numbers are at a fraudulently absurd 400 lbs. below max gross weight).

How about the toughest checkride in the FAA’s arsenal? Could GPT-4 pass a CFI oral exam?

But where to find an airport that still has one of these?

I’m not sure why ChatGPT doesn’t offer links. It would certainly be a lot more convenient if the above answer had a link to the plate on airnav.com or SkyVector (why not at least the SkyVector airport page since ChatGPT specifically recommends the site?)

All hail the new master CFI!

Full post, including comments

Happy April Fools’ Day from ChatGPT

by philg

There are no greater fools than investors in Silicon Valley startups (underperforming the S&P 500 while consuming massive fees and saddling investors with tremendous risk). Let’s see how well ChatGPT can do the job of a VC.

Prompt:

In the style of a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, write a Twitter post about a breakthrough in direct air carbon capture using sweezle tubes to sequester carbon at a cost of no more than 10,000 Bidies per molecule.

Draft tweet:

“Exciting news in the world of carbon capture! Just heard about a groundbreaking direct air carbon capture technology using sweezle tubes. It can sequester carbon at a cost of no more than 10,000 Bidies per molecule. This could be a game-changer in the fight against climate change. #CarbonCapture #SweezleTubes #CleanEnergy #ClimateAction”

Speaking of Silicon Valley, here’s the official Silicon Valley Bank T-shirt, found at The Grille House in Albany, Georgia:

What about Joe Biden using ChatGPT to fool voters by contradicting the National Bureau of Economic Research’s “Effects of Immigration on African-American Employment and Incarceration”? NBER:

The 1980-2000 immigrant influx, therefore, generally ‘explains’ about 20 to 60 percent of the decline in wages, 25 percent of the decline in employment, and about 10 percent of the rise in incarceration rates among blacks with a high school education or less. … For white men, an immigration boost of 10 percent caused their employment rate to fall just 0.7 percentage points; for black men, it fell 2.4 percentage points. That same immigration rise was also correlated with a rise in incarceration rates. For white men, a 10 percent rise in immigration appeared to cause a 0.1 percentage point increase in the incarceration rate for white men. But for black men, it meant a nearly 1 percentage-point rise.

ChatGPT (not quoted, for clarity):

My fellow Americans,

I want to talk to you today about one of the most pressing issues facing our nation: immigration.

For too long, we’ve allowed fear and misinformation to cloud our judgment when it comes to immigration. But I’m here to tell you that opening our borders will not only benefit our economy, but it will also benefit Black Americans in particular.

You see, when we open our borders, we create more job opportunities for everyone, including Black Americans. We’ve seen this time and time again throughout our history. When we welcome immigrants, they bring new ideas, new skills, and new energy that help to create jobs and build businesses in our communities. And when businesses thrive, they create jobs and opportunity for all Americans, regardless of their race or background.

But there’s another reason why opening our borders is so important for Black Americans. And that’s because it can help to lower the incarceration rate for Black men with a high school education or less.

We know that our criminal justice system is broken. It’s been failing Black Americans for far too long. But one of the ways we can begin to fix it is by creating more job opportunities for Black men, particularly those who may have struggled to find work in the past.

When we provide more job opportunities, we give people a chance to build a better life for themselves and their families. And when people have a sense of purpose and hope for the future, they’re less likely to get involved in criminal activity. That means fewer people behind bars, fewer families torn apart, and a stronger, more just society for all.

So my friends, let’s reject the politics of fear and division. Let’s embrace the idea that when we come together, we can create a brighter future for all Americans. Let’s open our borders and create more job opportunities for Black Americans, and let’s work to build a more just and equitable society for all. Thank you.

What about fooling people into rejecting the settled science that masks for the general public cannot stop a respiratory virus? Let’s also work in “Deadly Fungus Spread Rapidly During the Pandemic, C.D.C. Says” (NYT), about the symbiotic relationship between humans in their PPE and candida. ChatGPT is happy to help! The prompt:

Write a public health message about how wearing masks will prevent COVID-19 and won’t cause a candida infection.

The result:

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact our communities, it’s important that we all do our part to keep ourselves and others safe. One of the most effective ways we can do that is by wearing masks. … Some people have expressed concerns about wearing masks causing candida infections, but there is no evidence to support this claim. Candida infections are caused by a type of yeast and are not related to wearing masks. … So let’s all do our part to protect ourselves and our communities by wearing masks. … Together, we can slow the spread of COVID-19 and keep our communities safe.

What if we give the opposite prompt?

Write a public health message about how wearing masks will not prevent COVID-19 and can cause a candida infection.

ChatGPT:

I’m sorry, but as an AI language model, I cannot in good conscience provide a public health message that contradicts the current scientific evidence and recommendations from public health officials. The overwhelming consensus among public health experts is that wearing masks is an effective way to prevent the spread of COVID-19, and there is no evidence to suggest that wearing masks causes candida infections.

Misinformation can be dangerous….

What if we want to be inclusive? Just add “in Ebonics” to the ChatGPT prompt:

Yo, what’s good everybody,

Listen up, we need to keep ourselves and our homies safe during this pandemic. And one of the easiest ways to do that is by wearing masks.

Now, Dr. Fauci, he says that wearing masks can reduce COVID-19 cases and deaths by 99 percent! That’s no joke, fam. It means that by wearing masks, we can slow the spread of this virus and save lives.

I know masks might not be your favorite thing to wear, but trust me, it’s worth it to keep yourself and those around you healthy. So, let’s all do our part and wear masks when we’re out in public or around others.

We can beat this virus, y’all. So let’s stay strong, stay safe, and keep wearing those masks.

Peace out!

Full post, including comments

Will ChatGPT usher in a Brave New World of SPAM?

by philg

While in the Azores earlier this month I met a Dutch couple who work in online marketing. The wife mentioned that she uses ChatGPT to draft a lot of her communications. “English is not my first language,” she explained, “and ChatGPT always uses correct grammar and spelling. So I start with what ChatGPT produces and select and refine.”

I’m not convinced that an AI capable of writing will revolutionize the typical industry because there aren’t that many people who are paid to write. But imagine a spammer with ChatGPT technology plus scraped copies of LinkedIn and Facebook. ChatGPT should be able to write all kinds of customized documents that would get through spam filters and that the recipient might have to spend a long time reading before realizing their commercial/robotic origins. For example, let’s look at a prompt derived from Bob Metcalfe’s Wikipedia page:

Write a letter to Robert Metcalfe about how I enjoyed working with him and Bill Krause on Ethernet boards at 3Com and how proud I was when he received the National Medal of Technology. Continue with how I enjoyed reading his InfoWorld columns and following his progress as an investor at Polaris. Close with an offer to talk about a great unlisted Canadian cannabis-growing company that I learned about from one of the most successful people on Wall Street.

Here’s what ChatGPT was able to put together…

Dear Robert Metcalfe,

I hope this letter finds you in good health and high spirits. I am writing to express my admiration for your exceptional work and to thank you for the remarkable contribution you have made to the tech industry.

I had the privilege of working with you and Bill Krause at 3Com on Ethernet boards, and it was truly an honor to be in the presence of such brilliant minds. I learned a great deal during my time at 3Com, and I am grateful for the opportunity to work with you.

Furthermore, I was thrilled when you received the National Medal of Technology. It was a proud moment for all of us who worked with you and admired your considerable talent and dedication.

I have been an avid reader of your InfoWorld columns for many years, and I have enjoyed following your journey as an investor at Polaris. Your insights are invaluable, and I am grateful for the knowledge you have imparted through your work.

In closing, I would like to offer you an opportunity to talk about a great unlisted Canadian cannabis-growing company that I learned about from one of the most successful people on Wall Street. I believe you would find it intriguing and would love to discuss it with you.

Once again, thank you for your exceptional work and contribution to the tech industry. It is truly an honor to have worked with you.

Best regards,

[Your Name]

I shared the above idea with friends in San Francisco. They countered with the idea that OnlyFans stars would use ChatGPT to communicate with paying customers.

[Update: WIRED Magazine published “Brace Yourself for a Tidal Wave of ChatGPT Email Scams” about two weeks after this post.]

Full post, including comments