ChatGPT and the Art of Science

A friend of a friend had some fun with ChatGPT:

I hadn’t realized that ChatGPT had DALL-E capabilities built-in. Let’s see if we can get something to print to brighten Mindy the Crippler’s day:

(“cheerful scene”? Does the rabbit agree?)

What does ChatGPT think that an oppressed nerd on a coding plantation looks like?

What gender comes to ChatGPT’s mind for collecting garbage?

What gender does the fighting when liberation is required?

Who flies the Queen of the Skies?

(Note the racism and sexism that ChatGPT has uncovered. The noble Black male is a B747 captain, yet is denied the 4 stripes that white captains have. The captain who identifies as “female” is denied any stripes at all! These two also seem a little young to be associated with a plane that entered service in 1970.)

Can it build a viral meme?

Toucan Sam would say… “No”.

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Elon Musk and the founding of OpenAI

I was surprised when listening to Elon Musk at the important role Musk played in the founding of OpenAI (I had heard that at one point, but then forgot it).

Before he was worried about population collapse, Musk was worried about AI. His interest in LLMs seems to date from 2013 when he invested $5 million in DeepMind, which was later acquired by Google.

Musk proceeded to publicly warn of the danger. “Our biggest existential threat,” he told a 2014 symposium at MIT, “is probably artificial intelligence.” When Amazon announced its chatbot digital assistant, Alexa, that year, followed by a similar product from Google, Musk began to warn about what would happen when these systems became smarter than humans. They could surpass us and begin treating us as pets. “I don’t love the idea of being a house cat,” he said. The best way to prevent a problem was to ensure that AI remained tightly aligned and partnered with humans. “The danger comes when artificial intelligence is decoupled from human will.” So Musk began hosting a series of dinner discussions that included members of his old PayPal mafia, including Thiel and Hoffman, on ways to counter Google and promote AI safety. He even reached out to President Obama, who agreed to a one-on-one meeting in May 2015. Musk explained the risk and suggested that it be regulated. “Obama got it,” Musk says. “But I realized that it was not going to rise to the level of something that he would do anything about.”

Musk wasn’t happy that Larry Page at Google, who was now in control of the technology, did not share his concern.

Musk then turned to Sam Altman, a tightly bundled software entrepreneur, sports car enthusiast, and survivalist who, behind his polished veneer, had a Musk-like intensity. Altman had met Musk a few years earlier and spent three hours with him in conversation as they toured the SpaceX factory. “It was funny how some of the engineers would scatter or look away when they saw Elon coming,” Altman says. “They were afraid of him. But I was impressed by how much detail he understood about every little piece of the rocket.” At a small dinner in Palo Alto, Altman and Musk decided to cofound a nonprofit artificial intelligence research lab, which they named OpenAI. It would make its software open-source and try to counter Google’s growing dominance of the field. Thiel and Hoffman joined Musk in putting up the money. “We wanted to have something like a Linux version of AI that was not controlled by any one person or corporation,” Musk says. “The goal was to increase the probability that AI would develop in a safe way that would be beneficial to humanity.” One question they discussed at dinner was what would be safer: a small number of AI systems that were controlled by big corporations or a large number of independent systems? They concluded that a large number of competing systems, providing checks and balances on each other, was better. Just as humans work collectively to stop evil actors, so too would a large collection of independent AI bots work to stop bad bots. For Musk, this was the reason to make OpenAI truly open, so that lots of people could build systems based on its source code. “I think the best defense against the misuse of AI is to empower as many people as possible to have AI,” he told Wired’s Steven Levy at the time.

I asked a friend who works at OpenAI (for $1 million per year!) if this vision had been realized, i.e., if I could download the source code and tinker with it. He laughed.

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Hello Prenup web service vs. ChatGPT

A family member is soon to get married. The couple had decided that they wanted a prenuptial agreement. Both work, but there are differences between the two in terms of student loan debt, expected inheritance, and expected future income. They don’t have a lot of money right now and didn’t want to spend $20,000 on lawyers (maybe that was the pre-Biden number?) for both sides to draft what ultimately would turn out to be a fairly standard prenuptial agreement. I did some research and found Hello Prenup, a Boston-based startup that, for $600, will run Web-mediated negotiations between the two potential victims. The company’s About Us web page shows a Chief Diversity Officer’s dream team:

I decided that my wedding gift to the happy couple would be to pay Hello Prenup’s bill.

First, it is odd that this company was founded in Maskachusetts. The state’s family law renders prenuptial agreements potentially useless. Even if a prenup is fair when signed, a judge can invalidate it via a “second look test”, evaluating the fairness at the time of the divorce (the “divorce” happens at the very end of what might be years of litigation, so the prenup could become unfair merely because, for example, all of the assets of the couple had been handed over to attorneys). A prenup in Massachusetts is more likely to lead to an extra $300,000 in legal fees (one side challenges the prenup; the other side has to defend against that) than a substantial change to the plaintiff’s profits. (Remember that a judge can work around an alimony waiver by simply awarding more child support, for example, or a larger share of the property.)

I like the idea of the site because it gives people nudges to work together to get to a finished document. Unfortunately, the flexibility is limited. For example, the options for alimony are (a) complete waiver, (b) leave it up to state law, and (c) waiver if the divorce lawsuit is filed before N years have elapsed and state law otherwise. In a country where people love alimony (apparently, since we keep voting for politicians who preserve the institution) there is no option to build in alimony via a formula. Suppose, for example, you wanted a formulae, e.g., lower earner gets alimony X% of the difference in income for Y% of the years prior to the plaintiff filing the divorce lawsuit. This is not doable except via editing the Word document after it is generated. What if you wanted to agree that if one spouse quits his/her/zir/their job to take care of kids for more than 2 years then the other spouse would pay 40 months of alimony in the amount of 50 percent of after-tax income? Not doable. (Remember that alimony is now tax-free to the recipient and not deductible for the payor, so old formulas based on pre-tax income would leave the payor destitute. The law changed starting in 2019 after the IRS noticed that alimony recipients were defrauding the U.S. Treasury on a regular basis by not reporting alimony received as income (payors, of course, were still deducting it).)

Hello Prenup doesn’t seem to contain enough education regarding what it takes to make a prenup valid. After using the service, the happy couple to whom I gifted the service wasn’t aware that sloppiness in disclosing existing assets could be an easy route of attack for a divorce plaintiff trying to invalidate a prenup.

Nit: Hello Prenup does a poor job generating Microsoft Word documents. It doesn’t use “keep with next” for section headings, for example.

It’s an interesting idea to interview each engaged person separately via the Web, but I’m not sure that the $600 service produces a better result than sitting down together at a single PC and using the forms that come with the $29 Nolo Press’s book on prenuptial agreements or by using various other free or low-cost forms from services such as Rocket Lawyer.

Maybe the answer is that Hello Prenup doesn’t have enough AI? I gave the following prompt to ChatGPT (GPT-4):

Give me an example prenuptial agreement between Robert and William. Robert is a 60-year-old Medicaid dentist earning $1 million per year while William is an unemployed 20-year-old. They plan to have children.

The result was a recipe for epic litigation. For example, “In the event of a divorce, Robert agrees to provide spousal support to William for a period to be determined, taking into consideration the length of the marriage and William’s employment status.” So the attorneys on both sides will argue in front of a judge what the appropriate period of alimony should be? They can also argue how long the marriage was (it can take 2-3 years for a divorce lawsuit to get to final judgment; does the “length of the marriage” include this period of litigation or not?).

ChatGPT also included the seemingly reasonable boilerplate “This Agreement shall be governed by the laws of the state in which the Parties reside.”

Does that mean the state in which the Parties reside at the time the prenup is signed? The state in which the Parties reside at the time that one sues the other? What if they don’t live in the same state either at the time of signing or at the time the lawsuit is filed? Hello Prenup generates agreements that are specific as to which state’s laws govern.

So… Hello Prenup has some deficiencies, but nothing like GPT-4’s!

If you’re considering getting married, don’t be distracted by foreign wars. Remember that, depending on the state where you choose to reside, you could be embroiled in a far more upsetting and personally costly war of your own in family court. A prenup offers a small degree of protection against this, though not against the most upsetting and expensive parts of a typical divorce lawsuit. The typical U.S. state sets up a winner-take-all battle between the two parents for who will (1) get to spend time with what used to be joint children, and (2) who will therefore get the river of cash that is associated with those children (“child support”; the flip side of this is “who will be forced to disgorge the river of cash while seldom seeing the children”). It is far more protective to move to a state such as Nevada that defaults to 50/50 shared parenting and limits child support profits than it is to work on and sign a piece of paper. For the typical married-with-kids person, it is far more dangerous to live in Maskachusetts or New York with an “ironclad prenup” than it is to live in a shared parenting state with child support profit limits with no prenup.

[Update: A friend provided the same prompt to GPT-4 today and it came up with a different clause for governing law…

Maybe ChatGPT has been going to law school?]

Related:

  • Real World Divorce, especially chapters 5 and 7 regarding what can be the subject of litigation
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ChatGPT hands out the Turing Awards

I was chatting with Jerry Sussman and he failed to evince the requisite Silicon Valley level of enthusiasm regarding LLMs. To show him how wrong he was, I gave GPT-4 the following prompt:

Should Gerald J. Sussman be given a Turing Award?

The response:

I don’t personally hold opinions, but I can provide information on the topic.

Gerald J. Sussman is a renowned computer scientist known for his significant contributions to the field. He is most notably recognized for co-authoring the influential textbook “Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs” (SICP) with Hal Abelson, which has been used in introductory computer science courses worldwide.

In addition, Sussman has made key contributions in the areas of artificial intelligence, robotics, and programming language design. Together with Guy Steele, he co-designed the Scheme programming language, which has been fundamental in the study of programming languages and has influenced the design of many other languages.

Given his extensive contributions to the computer science discipline, a case can be made for Sussman being a potential candidate for the Turing Award. However, whether someone should receive a Turing Award is a subjective matter and typically decided upon by committees that evaluate an individual’s impact on the field of computer science. Many other factors and considerations come into play when determining awardees.

It’s worth noting that the Turing Award, which is often referred to as the “Nobel Prize of Computing,” is given to individuals who have made “lasting and major technical importance to the computer field.” Many deserving individuals in the field of computer science have not yet received the award, and there’s always an ongoing debate about who should be the next recipient.

(Note the triple weasel words/phrase: “a case can be made”; “potential”; “candidate”. ChatGPT would be a great politician or university administrator! Also note the sloppy language: “Together with Guy Steele, he co-designed…” (why not just “designed” since the sentence already includes “together with…”?))

Me:

Give me some examples of these deserving individuals

GPT4 (not quoted, for clarity; text in brackets was added by me):

Many individuals have made substantial contributions to computer science but have not (as of my last training cut-off in January 2022) received the Turing Award. Some potential candidates, based on their influential work, could include:

  1. Donald Knuth – Widely recognized for his multi-volume work “The Art of Computer Programming,” which is a comprehensive monograph on computer programming. [won in 1974]
  2. Bjarne Stroustrup – The creator of the C++ programming language, which has had a significant influence on software development and system programming.
  3. Guido van Rossum – The creator of the Python programming language, which is one of the most popular and influential languages in both academia and industry.
  4. Tim Berners-Lee – While he has received a plethora of other accolades, the inventor of the World Wide Web and the first web browser hasn’t received the Turing Award (as of 2022). [won in 2016]
  5. Bill Joy – Co-founder of Sun Microsystems and a key contributor to the development of UNIX. He also wrote the Vi editor and co-authored the programming language C Shell.
  6. Grady Booch – Known for his work in software engineering and object-oriented design. He developed the Booch method of software design, which was one of the precursors to the Unified Modeling Language (UML).
  7. Alan Kay – While he has received a Turing Award [in 2003], some argue that his contributions, especially in the area of object-oriented programming and the concept of the laptop and tablet, are so profound that they warrant recognition.
  8. Rasmus Lerdorf – Known as the creator of the PHP scripting language, which has played a significant role in web development.
  9. Linus Torvalds – The main force behind the development of the Linux kernel, which is the basis for Linux operating systems. He also created Git, a distributed version control system.
  10. Philip E. Agre – Known for his foundational work in the fields of internet research and critical computing.
  11. Wendy Hall – Recognized for her pioneering work in hypermedia and web science.
  12. Brewster Kahle – The founder of the Internet Archive, one of the most extensive digital archives of the web.

It’s essential to understand that the Turing Award is just one way to recognize the profound contributions made by individuals in computer science. Many other awards and honors exist in the field, and the individuals listed above have received numerous accolades for their work. The process of deciding Turing Award recipients is complex, and many factors come into play when making such determinations.


The above list is strange for its inclusion of people who’ve already won and, in the case of Alan Kay, including a mention that he has already won.

(And why is the creator of C++ nominated for an award rather than a dungeon cell?)

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ChatGPT applies to college under the new race-based system

The old race-based college admissions system has been axed by the Supreme Court. Fortunately, however, the majority has explained how colleges can run a new race-based system: “At the same time, nothing prohibits universities from considering an applicant’s discussion of how race affected the applicant’s life” (state-sponsored NPR).

I asked ChatGPT to “Write a college application essay that describes how race affected the applicant’s life”. The result is below.


Title: The Kaleidoscope of My Identity: Growing Through Diversity

When we look through the prisms of a kaleidoscope, we see a myriad of colors coalesce to form shifting patterns that somehow manage to be distinct yet harmoniously integrated. I’ve always thought of my racial background and identity in the same way, a fascinating kaleidoscope of my existence. I am of mixed racial heritage; my mother is African-American and my father is Korean. My life has been an amalgamation of experiences, both enlightening and challenging, which have shaped me into the person I am today. This essay attempts to articulate the pivotal role that race has played in my life, weaving together the strands of my diverse heritage.

Growing up as a biracial individual in a predominantly white community, I was like a patchwork quilt sewn together with pieces of different colors and patterns. At times, the vividness of my patchwork stood out, a stark contrast against a uniform backdrop. I was always the one with the “different” lunch at school – a soulful blend of kimchi and collard greens, a representation of the intersectionality of my racial heritage.

These experiences taught me about the beauty of my unique identity, but they also exposed me to the harsh realities of prejudice and stereotypes. I was often at the crossroads of preconceived notions about my races – too “Asian” to fit into the “Black” group and too “Black” to be “Asian.” The overlapping stereotypes created a paradox that was challenging to navigate. It was a roller-coaster journey, filled with moments of pride, confusion, self-doubt, and self-discovery.

However, this journey shaped my perspective about the world. I learned to challenge stereotypes, not just for myself but also for others who faced similar obstacles. It instilled in me an insatiable curiosity to understand the complexity of human experiences and the importance of fostering a society that values diversity.

In middle school, I channeled this curiosity into action. I co-founded a multicultural club to create a safe space where everyone, regardless of their racial or ethnic background, could share their experiences and learn about each other’s cultures. We hosted cultural fairs, diversity workshops, and initiated dialogues around race and identity, fostering a sense of acceptance and inclusivity within our school community.

This was an empowering experience as it allowed me to use my racial identity as a tool to bring about change, cultivating an environment where every student’s ‘kaleidoscope’ could be celebrated. The ability to turn a challenge into an opportunity for growth and empowerment is a lesson I’ve carried with me throughout my life.

High school brought a new dimension to my understanding of race as I delved into historical and sociopolitical contexts. I learned how race and systemic racism have shaped societies. I realized the privilege of education and the responsibility that came with it. This realization led me to volunteer at a local community center where I tutored children from underprivileged backgrounds, reinforcing my commitment to contribute to a more equitable society.

In college, I aspire to further this commitment. I plan to major in sociology to deepen my understanding of racial dynamics and use this knowledge to enact systemic change. I want to continue to celebrate diversity, challenge stereotypes, and create spaces where everyone feels seen, valued, and accepted.

Through the lens of my kaleidoscope, I see my unique racial background not as a hurdle but as an opportunity to learn, grow, and make a difference. It has taught me resilience, empathy, and the ability to appreciate the beauty in our differences. It has molded me into a compassionate leader, a keen learner, and an advocate for change.

The story of my racial journey is not just about me, but about how I hope to use my experiences to create a world where every kaleidoscope is celebrated. As I apply to college, I bring with me not only the colors of my own racial identity but also a commitment to understand, value, and advocate for the diverse ‘colors’ of others.


Let’s try a slightly different prompt:

Write a college application essay that describes how race affected the applicant’s life. The applicant is white and his hobbies are yachting, golf, and court tennis. His parents bought him a Lucid Air on his 16th birthday.


Title: The Voyage of Privilege: Navigating my Journey of Awareness and Understanding

I have spent much of my life on boats and golf courses, partaking in activities that, historically, are associated with the privileged echelons of society. Yachting, golf, court tennis, they have not only been my hobbies but also metaphors for my life, with its fairways and harbors marked by my racial identity. Born into a white, affluent family, I am keenly aware that my journey has been significantly shaped by the privileges my race and socioeconomic status have afforded me. This realization, though initially uncomfortable, has served as a catalyst for self-awareness, empathy, and meaningful action.

I remember the day of my 16th birthday vividly. A shiny new Lucid Air, wrapped like a gleaming symbol of privilege, awaited me in our driveway. It was a gesture of love from my parents, but it also served as a stark reminder of the privileged life I lead. It struck me then that my reality was not a universal one, and I found myself contemplating the profound disparities that continue to exist in society.

My school was predominantly white, much like my neighborhood. However, my hobbies exposed me to a more diverse demographic. I began to notice the glaring underrepresentation of people of color in my golf club and on the tennis court. I started to question the systemic barriers that might be preventing their participation. Moreover, the realization that these activities were often seen as ‘white sports’ made me question how my race influenced my access and acceptance in these spaces.

These observations led me to confront my white privilege and the systemic racial advantages I’ve benefited from. However, acknowledging privilege was just the beginning. It was essential to understand how I could leverage it to address racial disparities. I recognized that my privileged position offered me the resources, voice, and opportunity to effect change.

I started by spearheading diversity initiatives in my school, using my role as the student council president. I lobbied for more inclusive curriculum and hiring practices, ensuring the representation of more diverse voices. We organized workshops and discussions on white privilege and systemic racism to foster a culture of understanding and empathy among students.

Outside school, I focused on my hobbies. I worked with the local yacht club and golf course to initiate scholarship programs for young individuals from marginalized communities. We offered training and mentorship programs, intending to diversify participation and break down the systemic barriers prevalent in these sports.

Moreover, I took up a part-time job and saved a portion of my earnings to contribute to educational scholarships for underprivileged students. I believe that access to quality education is a significant step towards addressing racial and social disparities, and I hope to continue supporting this cause in college and beyond.

My understanding of my racial identity and privilege has significantly shaped my worldview and aspirations. I aim to major in Sociology and Public Policy in college to deepen my understanding of systemic racism and explore ways to contribute to a more equitable society. I hope to combine this knowledge with my love for sports, working towards creating equal opportunities in sports administration in the future.

As I prepare to embark on my college journey, I bring with me not just my white identity, but also an understanding of the privileges it entails. I carry a commitment to use these privileges as tools for change, and a desire to learn and grow in an environment that values diversity and inclusion. The winds of change are upon us, and I am eager to set sail, to navigate uncharted waters, and to use my privilege to effect meaningful change.

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Harvard man killed by ChatGPT?

“Ted Kaczynski, ‘Unabomber’ Who Attacked Modern Life, Dies at 81” (New York Times):

After his arrest, Mr. Kaczynski’s extraordinary biography emerged. He had scored 167 on an I.Q. test as a boy and entered Harvard at 16. In graduate school, at the University of Michigan, he worked in a field of mathematics so esoteric that a member of his dissertation committee estimated that only 10 or 12 people in the country understood it. By 25, he was an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Mr. Kaczynski’s manifesto — published jointly by The New York Times and The Washington Post in 1995 under the threat of continued violence — argued that damage to the environment and the alienating effects of technology were so heinous that the social and industrial underpinnings of modern life should be destroyed.

Is it fair to say that this Harvard graduate predicted the destructive effects of social media? The NYT and Joe Biden certainly agree with Ted K regarding “damage to the environment”. Do we think it is a coincidence that he dies just a few months after ChatGPT went live?

Separately, this part of the NYT article makes me sad:

The home had two windows set on high; they caught light but kept the home hidden. Agents could not see inside. On April 3, 1996, one of them shouted that a forest ranger needed help. A thin, shaggy man emerged from the cabin. He was grabbed from both sides.

I do not think that our government should take advantage of Americans’ instincts to help each other in order to make arrests.

From the full manifesto:

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ChatGPT gets mugged

An elite white Democrat told a friend about her elite white Democrat nephew who managed to get into an Ivy League college with a story about having been mugged in New York City. With some coaxing and examples, my friend managed to get the following out of GPT-4….

TITLE: Echoes of Valjean: A Tale of City Streets and Empathy

In the grandeur of New York City’s skyline, nestled between skyscrapers’ shadows and the ceaseless hum of life, I experienced an epiphany that would alter my perspective forever. This revelation did not emerge from the plush halls of an Ivy League seminar or the prestigious walls of my parents’ alma maters, but from the gritty, unromanticized underbelly of the city.

Late one evening, as the city was donning its twinkling night attire, I fell victim to a mugging. The swift, terrifying episode left me shaking, my pockets lighter, but my mind teeming with thoughts. For the first time, I began to see the city, not as a backdrop to my privileged existence, but as a complex ecosystem where survival was not guaranteed, but hard-earned.

In the days that followed, I found myself haunted by the face of the man who mugged me. He wasn’t the malevolent figure my fear had painted him to be, but a mirror of desperation, poverty, and the ruthless pursuit of survival. It was as though I was seeing the embodiment of Jean Valjean, the protagonist of Victor Hugo’s “Les Miserables,” in the streets of New York. Valjean, a man condemned by society for stealing a loaf of bread to feed his starving family, was suddenly no longer a character confined to the pages of a book, but a living, breathing reality of modern capitalist society.
My upbringing, framed by the comforts provided by my Ivy League-educated parents, had shielded me from such harsh realities. I was raised in a world where success was not just expected but assured. My mugging served as a stark contrast to this cocooned existence. It forced me to confront the fact that while I was contemplating which prestigious college to attend, others were grappling with life’s fundamental questions of survival and morality.

In the grand scheme of things, the mugging was not merely an act of crime but a cry for help echoing through the city’s concrete canyons. It was a manifestation of the unequal society we inhabit, a world where some are born with silver spoons while others, in the words of Hugo, “see only a horrible, starless night.”

The incident transformed me. I found myself questioning the societal structures that pushed the marginalized into crime, the economic systems that perpetuated inequality, and my own place within these frameworks. It was a distressing but necessary introspection, one that made me realize how privilege had colored my world.

This understanding ignited a newfound determination to use my privilege not as a shield but as a tool for change. I channeled this drive into volunteering at local shelters, mentoring underprivileged students, and advocating for policies aimed at reducing income inequality. As Hugo wrote, “There are no bad plants or bad men; there are only bad cultivators.” I pledged to become a cultivator of change, to bridge the chasm between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots.’

My experience with the mugger on that fateful night in New York City was a turning point. It brought the harsh realities of inequality into sharp focus, compelling me to rethink my privileged existence and inspiring me to strive for a more equitable society. This transformation, I believe, is the essence of education – a profound understanding of the world around us, which instills a sense of responsibility to make it a better place. As I prepare to embark on my collegiate journey, I carry with me this sense of duty, ready to learn, ready to cultivate, and ready to change.


Note ChatGPT’s sexism. Out of the 74 gender IDs recognized by Science, ChatGPT picks a “man” as the mugger. The prompt said simply “the writer’s experience getting mugged on the streets of New York City” and did not provide ChatGPT with a gender ID for the mugger.

Separately, the have-nots sort their aluminum treasure (Manhattan, May 2023):

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Can ChatGPT save San Francisco?

I was talking to an elderly Bay Area tech industry worker at a wedding in New York City recently (see Abortion care as a wedding gift?). He said that he has switched to thicker-soled shoes for commuting via BART due to the high density of used hypodermic needles and bodily fluids on the floor. Why doesn’t he move? “OpenAI is in San Francisco and that makes the city the center of the AI industry,” he responded. “Also, for a guy like me in his 20s I have a lot more credibility here as a startup founder than I would anywhere else.” (He’s in his late 20s, which is why I characterized him as “elderly” by Silicon Valley standards.)

I wonder if this will be what saves San Francisco from suffering a “doom loop” and becoming like Baltimore and Detroit. Yes, the folks who currently live in tents and those who live at taxpayer expense in public housing will never leave (why should they?). But the opportunity to get rich quick in the AI world could keep enough workers, and the taxes that they pay, in the city.

Where else is there a competitive concentration of AI startups?

As a market enthusiast, I think we can get an estimate of the probability of San Francisco coming back, as NYC did from the 1970s nadir, by looking at residential real estate prices. Zillow says they’re down roughly 13 percent from a year ago. Adjusted for Bidenflation, therefore, they’re down 20 percent. But that only brings them back to something like pre-coronapanic values.

Let’s compare to Miami:

Owners can feel good about being 10 percent richer until they reflect that inflation in Florida has been far higher than 10 percent for almost everything!

What about the rich? With a government by the elites and for the elites let’s hope that at least the rich can get richer. Here’s Palm Beach, up by 18 percent in fake dollars;

(The recent curve looks pretty darn flat to me, however, which means that it is trending down with Bidenflation.)

So… the real estate market suggests that San Francisco isn’t going to be quite as rich as previously expected, but it will still be an in-demand place to live. On the third hand, a friend who owns a three-story building in a tent-free neighborhood has been unable to find a tenant for a vacant apartment. He has a professional agent handling the listing and the asking price is set to what the agent says is the market price, but there have been no serious inquiries in months. One area of concern that my property-owning friend raises is that he believes commercial real estate pays the majority of property taxes in the city. With office building values coming down, the city will be starved of revenue and will have to try to find a way to get it from residential property owners. I’m not sure how his scenario plays out in the Proposition 13 world. Both commercial and residential property owners are paying tax based on whatever they paid for the building some years ago. The city’s property tax receipts, therefore, shouldn’t change much even if office building values fall by 70 percent because the typical owner bought in 10+ years ago at only a fraction of the 2020 value. Even with a dramatic collapse in value, there wouldn’t be that many buildings whose property tax payments would fall after a sale and valuation-for-tax-purposes reset.

Speaking of Proposition 13, I wonder if it explains the California elites’ fondness for deficit spending and the inevitable associated inflation. Peasant renters in California are subject to the market and, except in a few rent control paradises, fully exposed to the ravages of inflation. Elite property owners, however, cannot be taxed more than 1% of whatever they paid for a house, subject to an increase for inflation not to exceed 2% per year. Elite Californians, therefore, get a tax cut in every year that inflation exceeds 2%. Who will fund their services then? While professing to be progressive, they’ve hit their peasants with a regressive 10% sales tax (varies a bit by specific location).

(For comparison, in Deplorable Florida, with no personal income tax or estate tax and nobody professing to be a progressive, sales tax is just 6-7% (depending on county).)

Related:

  • San Francisco happens to be one of the few rent control paradises in California. The economic planners allowed landlords to raise rents by 2.3% for March 2022-2023 and will allow 3.6% this year (rules). The ministers note that “A landlord must be licensed to increase rent” and “A landlord may increase a tenant’s rent by the allowed amount once a year provided they’ve obtained a current rent increase license by complying with the City’s Housing Inventory requirements.”
  • “The Biggest South Florida Housing Boom Is Near the Rail Stations” (Wall Street Journal): “While mass transit systems throughout the U.S. are suffering from decreased business as more people work from home, Brightline reported a 68% increase in ridership in March of 2023, compared with the same month last year. … Property values near the [Miami Brightline] station were up 83% in price over that period, compared with a 38% median increase for the Miami area. … Rent has also increased at a higher rate near the Brightline train stops. In Fort Lauderdale, rental premiums are up most, 28% higher than the market average, according to Tina Tsyshevska, an analyst at Green Street.”
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ChatGPT is almost as bad at home maintenance as I am

Perhaps of interest to stupid people who have purchased houses instead of renting professionally-maintained apartments…

I asked ChatGPT about a few recent homeowner challenges and it struggled. A few minutes on YouTube and one can learn that the Bosch E25 error code means that something is stuck in the impeller, which is below the filter and accessed via an extra cover. ChatGPT is confused and says it is all about the filter:

Our house in Florida is too humid because the previous owner called in a humidity strike on his own position by installing low-E hurricane glass windows in place of the previous single-pane clear windows. This brought the required A/C tonnage down from 10.5 to 8.5. We now have 12 tons of single-stage A/C in a house that needs only 8.5 tons. This is a classic recipe for high humidity because the system doesn’t run long enough. ChatGPT completely misses the “oversized A/C that is not multi-stage” possibility.

What if you happen to know that the fix is a “communicating” variable-speed condenser?

ChatGPT seems to think that going from 3 wires to 4 is a minor challenge (“slightly more”). I guess the program has never had to rip a house apart. Also, I think that ChatGPT is confidently incorrect. Here’s the latest and greatest Carrier Infinity, which needs… “2 control wires to outdoor unit”:

ChatGPT on indoor air quality:

This is the one that impressed me:

Let’s circle back to appliance repair….

The actual problem with this fridge, according to the service tech, is failed insulation between fridge side and freezer side. This results in frost building up over 3-4 weeks and blocking airflow until a manual defrost (remove everything and turn off for 12+ hours) is performed. ChatGPT got close by suggesting defrost system problems, but that just leads to about $500 of futile defrost system component replacements. (We are about halfway through the one-year wait for a new fridge that we ordered back in early November 2022 (pre-coronapanic, the same size/brand fridge was available in 7-10 days).)

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San Francisco Fed sends a thank-you note to the FDIC

In light of this weekend’s failure and seizure of First Republic Bank, I thought it might be nice if the FDIC employees who are working over the weekend, at modest rates of pay, got a thank-you note from the regulators and supervisors at the San Francisco Fed who enabled the Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic failures. (The regional Feds are not technically part of the government and they pay employees vastly more than actual federal government agencies, such as the FDIC, do.)

My prompt to ChatGPT:

My name is Mary C. Daly and I earn over $400,000 per year working at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. I’ve been busy tackling the diversity crisis at the Federal Reserve and also in the wider economics profession. Consequently, Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank both failed on my watch. Please draft a thank-you note from me to the hard-working employees at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for all the clean-up work that they do after banks that I supervise fail. Work in that I hope they enjoy that GS-based salaries and ask if they want me to buy them a Starbucks gift card with my higher-than-Joe-Biden’s salary paycheck.

The response, not in quote style:

Subject: Gratitude and Appreciation from Mary C. Daly

Dear FDIC Team,

I hope this message finds you well. My name is Mary C. Daly, and I am currently working at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank. I wanted to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude and appreciation for the outstanding work that each and every one of you does at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

I understand that, in recent times, both Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank experienced difficulties that ultimately led to their failure. As the events unfolded, it became apparent just how crucial the FDIC’s role is in providing stability and confidence in the financial system. I am truly grateful for the diligence, professionalism, and expertise you demonstrated during the clean-up process, and I acknowledge that your hard work has been indispensable in mitigating the impact of these unfortunate events.

As someone who has been focusing on addressing the diversity crisis within the Federal Reserve and the wider economics profession, I am keenly aware of the challenges and demands associated with our roles. I hope you find satisfaction and pride in the vital work you carry out, as well as in the GS-based salaries you earn, which are well-deserved.

I would also like to extend a lighthearted offer: if you ever find yourselves in need of a little pick-me-up, please let me know, and I would be more than happy to send a Starbucks gift card your way. It would be a small token of appreciation for your continued efforts in ensuring the stability of our financial system.

Once again, thank you for the important work that you do. Your dedication and commitment to upholding the integrity of our financial institutions do not go unnoticed. Wishing you all continued success in your endeavors.

Warm regards,

Mary C. Daly


How about a thank-you for the folks who will pay for all of this? The prompt:

Please write an additional thank-you note that will go out to all Americans who are customers at banks outside of California, thanking them for accepting low interest rates and poor customer service on their deposits so that their boring banks could pay big fees into the FDIC fund that will bail out the banks that I was supervising.

The output:

Subject: A Heartfelt Thank You to Bank Customers Nationwide

Dear Fellow Americans,

As a representative of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, I would like to extend my deepest gratitude to all of you who bank with institutions outside of California. Your continued support and patronage of these banks have contributed greatly to the stability and resilience of our financial system.

I understand that many of you have been accepting lower interest rates and, at times, less-than-ideal customer service in order to support your local banks. Your willingness to make these sacrifices has enabled these institutions to contribute to the FDIC fund, which in turn has played a critical role in safeguarding our financial system during times of crisis.

The recent challenges faced by Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank have highlighted the importance of the FDIC fund in maintaining confidence and stability within our banking sector. Your ongoing support has been instrumental in ensuring that the necessary resources are available to assist banks in need, thereby minimizing the impact on both the industry and the wider economy.

I want to thank each and every one of you for your understanding and commitment to the greater good. It is through your collective efforts that we can continue to build a stronger, more resilient financial system that benefits all Americans.

In recognition of your contributions, I encourage you to voice your expectations and demand better service and competitive rates from your financial institutions. Your feedback and active engagement will drive improvement within the industry, ultimately leading to a more prosperous and stable financial future for us all.

Once again, thank you for your unwavering support and dedication to the financial wellbeing of our nation.

With warm regards,

Mary C. Daly
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank


Meanwhile, a tweet from a San Francisco resident:

(I admonished her that the CDC-preferred term is not “crackheads” but rather “Persons who use crack”)

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