What happens with federal tax policy?
Now that folks have had a chance to digest the Election Nakba… what are you all forecasting for tax policy? This is one of the few areas of federal policy where we could productively change our behavior given a change in the policy.
My guess is that the Trump Big Bang tax law that went into effect 2018 gets extended, more or less unchanged, thus revoking the expiration dates of 2025 and 2028 for various individual and business tax provisions. My basis for this prediction is that Congress hates cutting spending, but enjoys cutting taxes. That’s how we get the deficit spending that started in earnest when Congress refused to implement Ronald Reagan’s proposed spending cuts, but did oblige him on the tax rates that he suggested.
My first prediction for a change is that the limit on state/local (SALT) tax deductibility will be raised or eliminated in order to get some cooperation from the Party of the Economic Elite (i.e., the Democrats). My second prediction is that there will be some sort of enhancement of the current system for extracting money from the childless (the “drones”) and giving the cash to those with children, e.g., via tax deductions or tax credits or “refundable tax credits” for those who don’t bother to work and instead enjoy playing Xbox with their children for all after-school hours. There is nothing that American politicians love more than making the childless work another few hours every week so that parents can enjoy time with their kids.
What would I do about taxation if I could be dictator for a day?
- no change to current tax rates (I assume these are already the revenue-maximizing rates and the federal government needs at least $36 trillion just to pay back debt)
- no change to the mechanisms that Donald Trump put in place to keep multi-national companies from parking all of their profits offshore
- the IRS prepares a draft tax return for every American income taxpayer (i.e., about half of us) with all of the information that it has received and enables us to edit it
- eliminate the estate tax, which generates a huge amount of unproductive legal and accounting activity and hardly any revenue (about $20 billion/year against a federal budget of $7 trillion)
- eliminate the Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax, which is a complicated add-on to the estate tax
- eliminate the step-up in basis that assets get upon an owner’s death (so capital gains liability would increase on inherited assets once they’re sold)
- index capital gains taxation to inflation so that fictitious (inflation-driven) “gains” aren’t taxed (see Uncle Joe’s capital gains tax (what could have been, unburdened by what was) for an example of what would happen to a long-term investor in GE stock who actually lost money in real dollars and then loses more to a tax on inflation)
- eliminate charitable donation deductions (this prevents multi-billionaires from escaping taxation by giving money to the foundations that their kids control, etc.; Warren Buffett has already announced that the U.S. Treasury will get bupkis after he croaks because 99.5% of his money will go “to a charitable trust overseen by his daughter and two sons when he dies.” (USA Today))
Despite the elimination of the estate tax, note that the above changes would result in a huge increase in revenue from dead people and their heirs. Right now someone can inherit a $20 million house from two parents, completely tax free (estate tax exemption for a married couple is about $28 million), and the basis is $20 million, not the $1 million price that they paid in nominal dollars way back when or the $3 million price that is the $1 million adjusted for inflation. Thus, the heir could sell the $20 million house and pay no tax at all because the basis was stepped up to $20 million. If the above changes were implemented, an immediate sale of the inherited house would subject the heir to capital gains and Obamacare tax on a $17 million inflation-adjusted gain or 0.238 * $17e6 = $4 million. Same deal with a $2 million house (i.e., a Biden starter home!), but it would be perhaps $400,000 in revenue for the Federales rather than the current $0. (States that impose a capital gains tax (i.e., not Florida!) could be similarly fattened by these changes.)
Since my ideas are never popular with anyone else, I guess we can say for certain that none of the above changes will ever happen!
Readers: What do you think will happen?
Background…
and what if Congress can’t agree on any bill?