Happy New Year’s Eve from St. Augustine! My hope for readers is that excessive alcohol consumption doesn’t interfere with the efficacy of their medical marijuana edibles…
Back to my favorite topic: Cuba.
It seems that much of Cuba’s appeal in the pre-Castro days was the availability of goods and services that were considered sinful and therefore illegal in the U.S. For example, Cuba has casino gambling, legal alcohol (during our Prohibition period), and prostitution that was at least de facto legal.
Our Cuban guides suggested that if the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba were lifted, the river of American visitors would flow again.
But would it?
Suppose that the motivation for a lot of American visitors was sin. Isn’t there a lot more competition in that market now?
Boston’s Encore casino will open in 2019. Restrictions on purchasing alcohol have been relaxed town-by-town and day-by-day (now on Sundays too!). New recreational marijuana shops are opening monthly. (Prostitution doesn’t make sense here since the first pregnancy with an upper-income customer would eliminate the need for further sex work; Massachusetts offers unlimited child support profits.)
The Massachusetts resident who isn’t satisfied with that mixture of sin can fly in nonstop comfort to London, which offers casinos, alcohol, and legal prostitution.
Cuba is in rather tough shape physically. Meanwhile, billions of dollars have been invested in competing sinful destinations.
Could it be that the our embargo against Americans going to Cuba for a carefree vacation ends with a whimper rather than a bang?
(Our own New Year’s Eve will be spent catering to the whims of the next generation, so please Party like a Kavanaugh (TM) on our behalf!)
We set a meeting for the playground the following week. We three adults had planned it out carefully. My son and I would be playing on the monkey bars. My boyfriend would show up and I would introduce him as my friend.
When this began, we still lived in a large apartment in the Mission; there was room for privacy the nights my boyfriend stayed over. It was awkward at first, but as the years passed we spent more time as a foursome — cooking, playing board games.
Then the owner of our apartment decided to sell and offered us an enormous sum of money to surrender our rent-controlled lease.
At the new house, my beau built a platform so I could store the mattress beneath a raised office, but it never felt right. It wasn’t sexy to sleep with him under piles of papers and the glow of the computer screen saver.
Will more people envy her life of sexual adventure or the rent-controlled apartment in San Francisco that she had?
Our guide in Havana said that Cuba has one of the world’s highest divorce rates and attributed this phenomenon to the real estate shortage. “People have to live with their in-laws and that leads to a lot of unhappiness.” Wikipedia backs her up on the ratio of divorces to marriages, which is indeed slightly higher than in the U.S.
(Since Cubans marry much younger than people in other countries, could the high rate simply reflect that people married at 18 are more likely to split up than people who marry at age 30?)
“Divorce was a scandal in the old days,” she explained. “Now it is easy because we have no money to fight over, just babies and always the mother keeps them.” What about the right to occupy, rent-free, real estate? The guide explained that the mother can always win that one too, but the right may not be permanent. “There were a lot of women coming to Havana from the east and marrying older men with nice houses, having a baby [double hand gesture of swollen belly], and then taking the house. Now they have the right to stay until the child turns 18, but they won’t own it if the man owned it before the marriage.”
What about child support profits after meeting a higher-income Cuban in a bar? “She can get paid if she knows who the father is,” the guide explained, “but she can’t get an apartment, only about 2 CUC per month maximum. [$2/month].” The child support formula is based on the father’s official earnings, which would be only $20-60/month and is a much smaller percentage of after-tax income than in the U.S. A child support plaintiff could collect $2/month, for example, from a physician earning $60/month (a 1/15th share), but wouldn’t get a share of the physician’s side-job earnings. Compare to New York or Wisconsin, where a plaintiff’s tax-free share of the doctor’s after-tax earnings will be roughly 1/3rd.
In looking at the above numbers, remember that Cubans don’t pay rent, tax, health insurance, college tuition, etc. That’s all included in the package of Cuban citizenship (into which immigrants are not invited!). Also, the $20/month that someone might earn is sufficient to purchase staple foods at subsidized prices via ration cards. Cubans who desire luxury items such as mobile phones need a second job, but those who are content with a basic standard of living apparently can survive on the official salaries.
The CIA Factbook says Cuba has a population that is falling in size (growth rate -0.27 percent) and older (median age 41.8; older than the U.S. at 38). This is consistent with what our guide in Havana told us, i.e., that since the fall of the Soviet Union the typical Cuban family can afford only 1 or 2 children. This is despite women going into their at first marriage when just over 18 years old, according to our guide (consistent with some published, but older, statistics that I could find, also with this NYT article that quotes a woman married at 17 (divorced her husband when she was 35)).
Relaxing on a Wednesday in Cienfuegos (on the southern shore)
Politicans in Europe and the U.S. say that a flood of young immigrants, regardless of lack of education, local language proficiency, and job skills, will boost an economy with an aging population. Should Cuba be trying to get its share of the caravans of young Spanish speakers making their way through Mexico? (they previously grabbed Che Guevara from Mexico after he made his way north from Argentina)
[From 1960 to the present, Cuba’s population did grow, though not as fast as the U.S. population. The guide explained her theory for why there was more growth in the old days: “Back then we had no electricity, phone, or TV set so we make a lot of children.”]
The officers of Empress of the Seas were kind enough to host a Q&A session with passengers.
The life of an officer is 10 weeks on, 10 weeks off. The company is responsible for air transport to and from the officer’s home, wherever that happens to be on Planet Earth. There were no American officers on our ship and an American would be at a big disadvantage relative to a European. The typical European country doesn’t tax money earned elsewhere and, in any case, the officer can always choose to locate in a tax-free jurisdiction for his or her land home. The European officer with a family is not an attractive target for a divorce lawsuit due to the elimination of alimony (Germany, and similar) and/or the low caps on child support revenue ($2,000 to $8,000 per year per child, depending on country; see Real World Divorce). The land-based partner of a cruise ship officer cannot substantially live on the officer’s salary following a divorce.
(There is not a huge temptation for a heterosexual officer to stray while on board. All of the officers on our ship were men and the majority of crew members at all levels are male. There are apparently few women who are willing to be away from home for stretches of 6 months or more.)
Our ship is the smallest in the Royal Caribbean fleet. The captain explained his plan to catch up: “Every time we go into dry dock we will add 6 feet to the length. Over time we will grow into the largest ship.” (Empress of the Seas is being refitted in February 2019 in Freeport, Bahamas. Given that everything will need to be shipped in, I was shocked that it was more cost-effective to do this work in the Bahamas rather than in the U.S. There must be some spectacular inefficiencies in the American shipyards! In what other manufacturing or technical area is the Bahamas competitive?)
Why are all of the new ships big? The officers explained that the path to real profits starts with ships that hold at least 3000 passengers. That isn’t practical for these Cuba excursions due to the small piers that are available.
One thing that is not big on cruise ships is the draft. The captain explained that ocean liners, which are engineered with a deep draft to challenge big waves, can’t get into most of the Caribbean ports. The Queen Mary had a draft of 39′, the Queen Mary 2 is at 34′. Even the 6,000-passenger Oasis of the Seas draws only 31′ and the Empress of the Seas has a 24′ draft. There seems to be a mismatch, however, between how cruise ships are designed and how they are used. People are crossing the Atlantic and Pacific on these tall and shallow-drafted machines. We went through about 8 hours of dramatic (for a landlubber) rocking when sideways to what looked like a modest swell. Seasick bags were deployed in all of the elevator lobbies. This is despite the ship being equipped with stabilizers.
This year: We helped 60 sea turtles make their way from frigid Cape Cod to warm Panama City, Florida. Some photos:
Merry Christmas to everyone!
[Credits: Rectrix at KBED and Sheltair at KECP both provided superb support for loading and unloading. Turtles Fly Too and Kate Sampson of NOAA coordinated everything. Tradewind Aviation‘s superb maintenance and dispatch crew made sure that the Pilatus PC-12 was ready to go. Air Traffic Control gave the turtles a VIP direct clearance at FL220. The New England Aquarium did the initial rehab for the cold-stunned turtles. Gulf World in Panama City continued the rehab and also gave us an awesome tour of their facility (there was minimal damage to Panama City beach from Hurricane Michael, though it was a different story just 10 miles east). ]
Good news: I made it to Jacksonville without suffering the indignity of three hours on JetBlue.
Bad news: the trip was officially scheduled to depart on Friday, thus making this a three-day journey.
The Cirrus SR20 was theoretically capable of handling the low clouds and heavy rain of Friday in New England, but not the forecast icing conditions once airborne.
Why not depart on Saturday? The FAA issued an Airmet for occasional moderate turbulence, but that didn’t seem to square with surface winds forecast to gust up to 30 knots in the Washington, D.C. area (usually calm). Boeing crews were reporting moderate turbulence and a Cirrus SR22 in northern Virginia reported “severe” turbulence:
Turbulence that causes large, abrupt changes in altitude and/or attitude. It usually causes large variations in indicated airspeed. Aircraft may be momentarily out of control. Report as Severe Turbulence.
Occupants are forced violently against seat belts or shoulder straps. Unsecured objects are tossed about. Food service and walking are impossible.
Later in the day, the FAA issued a SIGMET for occasional severe turbulence.
So the trip departed Sunday morning and the D.C. overnight was replaced with lunch followed by an overnight on the Virginia/North Carolina border.
So… at least in the winter, it is fair to say that a four-seat airplane is approximately 1/24th the speed of a basic economy airline ticket (and a little slower than a Honda Accord).
There is no better contrast than going to Art Basel before getting on a cruise ship.
The venue in the U.S. is adjacent to Miami’s Holocaust Memorial:
A Swiss bank is a sponsor, but they’re not interested in money per se. It is more about “women are who making a difference and those who are helping to rectify imbalance across all industries”:
A one-day ticket is $60. There is no discount for identifying as female.
Each gallery has its own section of the convention center floor. Just as in a traditional art gallery, a slender person sits typing at a computer and ignores customers. (There is an episode of Absolutely Fabulous in which Edina tells a snobby art gallery clerk something like “drop the attitude; you work in a shop.”)
David Shrigley describes our house (except for the “large” and “fancy” parts):
Ai Weiwei is not impressed with the World’s Greatest Democracy (this was pre-Trump!):
Success does not require spending a lot on art supplies:
Service animals get more unusual every year:
Do not let the kids pack up for your cruise:
The motivation you’ve been needing for that standing desk:
Best-dressed visitor:
Important Hanukkah public service safety message:
They didn’t have enough neon to spell “rainforest”:
If you missed Burning Man, David Batchelor has you covered with LED sculpture:
Some airspeed and attitude issues in Matthew Brannon’s Huey:
Why isn’t the global douchebag circuit dominated by folks wearing Art Basel T-shirts? There is no gift shop! Taschen, however, operates an awesome shop with books that you wouldn’t have seen even if Amazon hadn’t killed your local bookstore. A large-format Hockney celebration and a book of Ferrari photos encased in a mock Ferrari engine ($30,000 complete with exhaust pipe stand, but sold out; the $6,000 engine-cover-only version remains available). Don’t forget the white gloves:
The former escort, who got paid up to $5,000 a night, also griped that Spitzer could be a slacker about payments — sometimes writing a check for $10,000, other times paying her in $300 installments.
“We were seeing each other four times a week’’ for sex, said Zakharova, who has previously described leading Spitzer around on a black leash during their bedroom games.
Zakharova said she is now working on book and movie deals about her time with Spitzer.
So the young lady earned up to $20,000 per week ($1 million per year) as a vendor of sexual services, but is potentially able to earn more by writing about the former New York governor‘s preferences in the bedroom.
Could a confidentiality contract between a prostitute and a client be enforced right now? Does the fact that prostitution is illegal in New York render such a contract void?
Suppose that the U.S. legalized prostitution (to go with recreational marijuana?). Would we then also put in default confidentiality provisions? What public interest is served by having sex workers write about their customers? (and how could the truth ever be established, absent video evidence?)
[Instead of working for $5,000 per night, why wouldn’t the young lady have arranged to get pregnant and then sold the abortion or harvested 21 years of potentially unlimited child support revenue offered under New York family law? The Post article explains:
At one point, the gal pal “wanted him to reverse his vasectomy. He told her he would, but he didn’t.”
]
Finally, what does the IRS make of all this? The U.S. resident is on record as saying that she earned $5,000 per night. If she did not declare this as income, does the IRS now go after her on behalf of the U.S. Treasury?
Two of the most popular political ideas in the U.S. right now are expanded immigration and socialism. While on the ground in Havana it struck me that maybe Cuba provides a good laboratory example. The native population, e.g., the Taíno, contributed the city’s name and then were promptly disposessed of their land and wiped out by waves of immigrants. The current government doesn’t seem to think that this was a positive example of the benefits of immigration and therefore citizenship is apparently generally unavailable except via birth to existing Cuban citizens (source).
How about socialism? On the positive side of the ledger, the crime rate in Cuba is low. Havana is considered safe and walkable at all hours. Other than mojitos, drugs are illegal and do not seem to be prevalent either for consumption or buying/selling. Our guide told us that there was essenetially no drug crime. There are plenty of neighborhoods in San Francisco that are far scarier.
As with most U.S. cities, the road and highway infrastructure dates primarily from 1900-1960. Unlike most U.S. cities, however, the infrastructure is adequate to meet current demand (background). I visited on a typical working Monday and traffic flowed smoothly on all major arteries. If you have enough money to afford a car or taxi ride, you can realize the freedom of movement that car proponents envisioned circa 1900. (If you don’t have the funds for a private car, bus rides are available for roughly 2 cents each and, in a formerly classless society, there are first classes buses with guaranteed seats and A/C available at a premium price.)
Guides we listened to expressed a belief that the expropriation of foreign-owned assets had been a mistake and that the consequent trade rift with the U.S. was unfortunate. However, they pointed out that every country has its problems and that Cubans are happy (outranking Americans in some ways; see Cato for an analysis/complaint). Our main Havana guide expressed satisfaction with the free health care system, which had also provided her with braces at no cost (the CIA says that life expectancy at birth in Cuba is about the same as in the U.S., despite our spending far more on health care than the Cubans spend on their entire lives). She expressed admiration for entreneurs who had set up restaurants and encouraged us to patronize these private establishments, but did not seem to question the overall idea of socialism and central planning. She wanted a richer welfare state (Sweden circa 1975?), not a Hong Kong-style free market state. (Government services continue even after death in Cuba; our guide to the cemetery explained that transportation to the cemetery is free, as is the coffin and burial. “The family pays only for flowers.”)
[How do some people in a society that rejects capitalism amass sufficient capital to open a restaurant? Our guide said that she suspected most of the cash was coming from US- and EU-based relatives of Cuban residents. “A lot is happening under the table.”]
The transition to a partially private economy does not seem to be going smoothly. A fellow passenger who was in Cuba two years ago on a land-based (Afro-themed) tour with Dr. Runoko Rashidi said that she had noticed an increase in litter, prices, and older Cubans expressing fears about being targeted for street crime if they were seen to receive convertible cash (“CUC”) from a tourist. She thought that the country was going downhill.
Kids, at least, seem to enjoy themselves despite the lack of Xbox and iPad. We saw 10-year-olds thoroughly entertained with only a large log to roll around on. Teenagers were seen talking to each other rather than absorbed in devices (since they don’t have devices!). Helicopter parenting is unpopular, which led to some disturbing scenes of children running into traffic and drivers swerving to avoid them.
All of our guides used the opportunity of having an audience of American voters to plead for a normalization of relations with the U.S. Obama visited in 2016 and Coolidge in 1928 (Guardian), but Cubans feel ignored by their powerful neighbor to the north. They would rather be connected to the U.S. Internet than have to go via Venezuela for their video chats with relatives and friends living abroad. The U.S. is inscrutable from a Cuban point of view. Fidel is dead. Raúl Castro is retired to the south (but Wikipedia shows him as still in power?). Why can’t the U.S. forgive Cubans for events that happened before most of today’s Cubans were even born? (And, indeed, the worst problems can perhaps be attributed to American military incompetence, e.g., the Bay of Pigs invasion plans being redrawn by President Kennedy and his advisors.) Cubans suspect lobbying by Cuban-Americans who harbor continuing resentment from the confiscation of their property so many decades ago. (One guide threw in that he couldn’t understand the lobbying power of the NRA. Maybe an American gun nut will one day take him to the range to show him just how much love there is for firearms!)
It does seem tough to explain the continued trade embargo. As the guides note, Cuba is not perfect. However, they’re not threatening neighbors with nuclear weapons, they’re not allied with a major U.S. enemy, they don’t oppress citizens on the basis of race, religion (except for Jehovah’s Witnesses), gender ID, or sexual preferences (the country is on track to provide same-sex marriage; compare to 72 countries in which homosexual acts are illegal (Guardian)). Given our current standards of virtue, what makes Cuba obviously right near the top of the list of the world’s worst nations?
Decorating a wall with a picture of Che Guevara is almost as popular in Havana as it is in Cambridge and Berkeley.
Facebook post from Havana: “Friends asked me to take some photos of the cars here, so I did.”
Summary: “Immigration in Cuba killed all of the natives. Socialism killed all of the buildings.”
