What is the point of closing universities and companies if K-12 schools remain open?

A lot of U.S. universities seem to be sending the students home to catch glimpses of the truth via Internet (it will be like Plato’s cave, but with LED backlighting instead of a climate-destroying wood fire?).

The stated reason for this mass exodus is that this will slow the spread of coronavirus. But U.S. K-12 schools are generally staying open. Doesn’t that ensure the rapid spread of any epidemic, even if children themselves are not usually symptomatic? Almost everyone has at least some contact with a family with children. As long as the K-12 schools are open, children have contact with each other.

Here’s part of an email from the superintendent of our local public school (Lincoln, Massachusetts)…

The Governor’s Press Conference held yesterday afternoon shared the current status of COVID-19 cases in our state and emphasized how quickly the levels of cases can escalate. In light of the data and the recommendations provided by Governor Baker and Commissioner of Education Jeff Riley, we are putting additional plans in place to ensure that we do everything we can to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 within our school communities. Right now, the level of risk in our school communities is low.

The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary education is not approving remote learning for pre-K through grade 12 schools.

Finally, I want to remind everyone that events such as this can bring out the best in a community and can also bring out the worst. Please remember that the strength of our community and how we get through this event is dependent upon how we care for each other and reach out to those in need. We may have a tendency to look out for ourselves, intentionally or unintentionally profile others, or carry out actions that are felt as microaggressions. Let us all rise to the occasion and do all that we can to support each other to ensure that every student, staff member, and family feels supported, safe, and cared for. I recommend we all read this document regarding civil rights related to COVID-19. https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USED/bulletins/27f5130.

From the linked-to U.S. Department of Education letter:

There has been an increasing number of news reports regarding stereotyping, harassment, and bullying directed at persons perceived to be of Chinese American or, more generally, Asian descent, including students.

Nobody had the heart to tell our school superintendent that nearly all of the Asian families decamped some years ago to Newton, Lexington, and Brookline, whose school systems put up higher test scores. We would have to fight our way through quite a bit of traffic (in our Warren-stickered Teslas, naturally) if we wanted to microaggress an Asian.

Readers: If you’re not too busy unintentionally profiling Chinese Americans, can you please educate me on how “social distancing” in the U.S. is useful when K-12 schools remain open?

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Wailing over Elizabeth Warren’s defeat betrays heretical anti-rainbow flag religious beliefs?

A Facebook friend who is passionate about both Elizabeth Warren and the Rainbow Flag (LBGTQIA+) religion posted “Elizabeth Warren endured sexism at every step of her campaign” (Guardian):

The next president, it is now assured, will be a man.

Setting aside the insulting dismissal of Tulsi Gabbard, this statement betrays extreme cisgender-normative prejudice and a denial of gender fluidity. How does the author (or anyone) know that Joe Biden won’t identify as a woman by the time January 2021 rolls around?

Nobody predicted Bruce Jenner adopting a new gender ID, right? Is there something more inherently male about Joe Biden than there was about Bruce Jenner? (an immigrant friend after Super Tuesday: “I can’t believe they picked the most demented puppet. The guy had to be defended by his wife from a vegan. He needs a physical and a head CT. Strikes me as a guy with cortical atrophy.”)

If there is nothing special about being born with a doctor-identified female biological sex, how can there be anything special about Elizabeth Warren compared to Joe Biden purely on account of her (potentially transitory) current gender ID?

From March 9, 2020 in our righteous neighborhood (Lincoln, Massachusetts, soon to be home of the most expensive school building, per student, ever constructed in the United States):

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Coronavirus enables elite universities to pull off the ultimate scam?

“Stanford cancels in-person classes due to coronavirus”:

In-person classes at Stanford University will be canceled beginning March 9th, as a faculty member has tested positive for coronavirus, and two students have self-isolated after “possible exposure.” Neither student has tested positive for the virus yet, according to a statement from the university, but Stanford provost Persis Drell said late Friday that the university will move some classes online “to the extent feasible.”

First the big research universities figured out that they could charge more than $50,000 per year in tuition for in-person classes taught by graduate students with a tenuous hold on the English language. Now they’ve figured out that they can charge $50,000 per year without having to deliver in-person classes at all!

How about our local universities here in Boston? Our class at Harvard Medical School has been moved online. The result is a terrible loss of efficiency. Helping small teams with SQL queries via Webex takes about 3X longer compared to wandering around a room and being able to look at the same physical screen. The core undergrad and graduate classes are Harvard are going to be moved online starting on March 23, after Spring Break is over (and students are being asked not to come back to campus). MIT is following a similar protocol (WCVB).

Meanwhile, despite coronavirus, the big issues of our day are still waiting to be resolved by our brightest minds. A poster cluster in Harvard Yard, afternoon of March 10, 2020:

My favorite poster above is the “when it all goes wrong” in an election context poster. Presumably this is defined by the wrong candidate winning and one learns that in a course titled “Bad things Deplorables do when you forget to take away their right to vote.”

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Doctor at a big hospital in Massachusetts cannot order a coronavirus test

A friend is a physician at a Boston-area hospital with nearly $1 billion in annual revenue and more than 250 beds.

This evening I asked what he would do if a patient came in with the full slate of obvious coronavirus symptoms. “If his condition is critical, I can admit him,” Doctor Friend said, “but I can’t order a coronavirus test. In fact, the hospital has been trying to get the word out to people not to come to the hospital if they want a test.”

How is that possible? “We can’t do a coronavirus test in-house,” he responded. “I’ve heard that Quest is gearing up and will have millions of tests available soon. Once they’re ready, we can order tests through Quest.”

If a doctor in a big hospital in a big city cannot order a test, how can we have any confidence in what we’re told are the latest infection numbers for the U.S.? How can anyone know how many of our neighbors are infected with coronavirus and how many simply have a bad cold or a mild flu?

Separately, I ran into a friend who runs a small pharmacy with his brother. “Our sales are up 30 percent,” he said. “Mostly cleaning products, hand sanitizer,and so forth. We were able to buy some alcohol at twice the usual price and then we marked it up to $8, but now we’re sold out of almost everything.” Is any of this stuff useful to an average consumer? If the family doesn’t have coronavirus, what is the value in sanitizing everything? If a family member does have coronavirus, what is the value in cleaning up after the fact? “Unless you have new people coming into your household every day,” he replied, “I don’t see what difference it would make versus just washing your hands on returning home. But it makes people feel good to do something.”

He did not think that this round of coronavirus would turn out to be significant. He thought that it would, like the flu, kill some older people and then disappear for the summer.

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Investing in the time of plague?

Thought experiment: What stocks will go up in response to the coronavirus plague?

One idea: Comcast and similar cable TV stocks. If people are stuck at home they won’t mind paying for premium channels and will be less likely to cut the cord.

Second idea: airlines and hotel stocks. “Buy on bad news” is the theory here.

Readers: better ideas?

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Thomas Edison and electronic voting

Another day, another batch of primary elections. (How are the candidates doing? Is it obvious at this point that Biden (“the senile puppet,” as an immigrant friend puts it) will win everything?)

I recently finished Edison by Edmund Morris. It turned out that, like the Iowa Democrats, Thomas Edison thought that tabulating votes was a problem in search of a tech solution:

Working nights at Western Union, and by day literally under Williams’s roof in a third-floor attic, Edison invented and made half a dozen devices, including a stock ticker, a fire alarm, and a facsimile telegraph printer (“which I intend to use for Transmitting Chinese Characters”). He executed his first successful patent application on 13 October [1868; age 21] for an electrochemical vote recorder, whittling the submission model himself from pieces of hardwood. “To become a good inventor, you must first know how to use a jackknife.” It was a clever device—too clever to be commercial, as he soon found out. Designed to speed up the laborious process of vote counting in legislative bodies, it took signals of “aye” or “nay” from electric switches on every desk and imprinted them on a roll of chemically prepared paper, in each case identifying the signal with the legislator’s name. At the same time it separately tabulated the votes on an indicator dial. Edison’s dream of seeing his “recordograph” clicking and spinning in the chambers of Congress dissolved when he heard that speedy voting was the last thing politicos wanted in the passage of bills. They needed time to lobby one another in medias res. Edison resolved that hereafter he would invent only things that people wanted to use.

Since at least 1868, then, we have been inventing better machines for counting American votes, but nobody has worked on inventing better Americans!

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China will close its borders to Americans soon?

Right now we’ve tried to close our border with China. The US State Department says don’t go there. Airline flights have been cut back.

Yet what if the widely mocked Chinese government turns out to have been the only example of taking effective measures to stop the virus from spreading? China will soon be free of coronavirus while a pandemic rages in most of the world’s countries (thinly populated Finland escaped the 1348 Black Death, but they’ve already suffered from COVID-19).

A Japanese friend based in Shanghai told me that the Chinese are beginning to establish quarantines for visitors arriving from South Korea and Japan (confirmed via Reuters). When do they say that Americans aren’t welcome or have to be in a dog kennel for two weeks?

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Black Death lesson: immigration will discourage women from working

“The Black Death: The World’s Most Devastating Plague” by Dorsey Armstrong, a professor at Purdue, includes a great lecture on economics. One of the effects of a reduction in population was a rise in wages. Market-clearing wages turned out to be high enough to induce women to work in much larger numbers than previously. This, in turn, was one reason it took hundreds of years for the European population to return to pre-Plague levels. Working women would elect to delay having children and would have fewer total children.

Via immigration and children of recent immigrants, the U.S. has been expanding its population, the reverse of what happened during the Black Death. Simultaneously, Americans are decrying (a) stagnant wages for the working class, (b) the lack of women in the workforce, and (c) the wages paid, specifically, to those who identify as women. (One definite difference between the Middle Ages and today is the percentage of the population that can qualify to be placed in the “women” category!)

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