Elon Musk and coronapanic

From Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson…

“The coronavirus panic is dumb,” Musk tweeted. It was March 6, 2020, and COVID had just shut down his new factory in Shanghai and begun to spread in the U.S. That was decimating Tesla’s stock price, but it was not just the financial hit that upset Musk. The government-imposed mandates, in China and then California, inflamed his anti-authority streak.

It was not being pro-Science that prevented Musk from embracing measures that proved ineffective against SARS-CoV-2, but a mindless anti-authority attitude. (Keep in mind that the author is a huge hater of Donald Trump, a passionate supporter of Democrats, and a believer in cloth masks against an aerosol virus)

When California issued a stay-at-home order later in March, just when the Fremont factory was starting to produce the Model Y, he became defiant. The factory would remain open. He wrote in a company-wide email, “I’d like to be super clear that if you feel the slightest bit ill or even uncomfortable, please do not feel obligated to come to work,” but then he added, “I will personally be at work. My frank opinion remains that the harm from the coronavirus panic far exceeds that of the virus itself.” After county officials threatened to force the plant to shut down, Musk filed suit against the orders. “If somebody wants to stay in their house, that’s great,” Musk said. “But to say that they cannot leave their house, and they will be arrested if they do, this is fascist. This is not democratic. This is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom.” He kept the plant open and challenged the county sheriff to make arrests. “I will be on the line with everyone else,” he tweeted. “If anyone is arrested, I ask that it only be me.” Musk prevailed. The local authorities reached an agreement with Tesla to let the Fremont factory stay open so long as certain mask-wearing and other safety protocols were followed. These were honored mainly in the breach, but the dispute died down, the assembly line churned out cars, and the factory experienced no serious COVID outbreak.

The controversy became a factor in his political evolution. He went from being a fanboy and fundraiser for Barack Obama to railing against progressive Democrats.

(It cannot be that Democrats evolved, e.g., from being against same-sex marriage to being in favor of gender affirming surgery for teenagers. It is Musk who changed.)

Musk does not love our nation’s second most famous warrior against COVID-19:

… he wasn’t impressed by Joe Biden. “When he was vice president, I went to a lunch with him in San Francisco where he droned on for an hour and was boring as hell, like one of those dolls where you pull the string and it just says the same mindless phrases over and over.”

“Biden is a damp sock puppet in human form,” Musk responded [regarding Biden’s celebration of GM as the most important company in EVs at a time when GM was shipping 26 cars per calendar quarter]

Nor did Musk appreciate the evolution of California progressivism:

“I came there when it was the land of opportunity,” he says. “Now it’s the land of litigation, regulation, and taxation.”

Isaacson, much as he hates Republicans, attributes Musk’s mind-poisoning to libertarianism. But for this poison, Isaacson suggests, Musk might still be among the righteous. How stupid are libertarians? Isaacson describes Peter Thiel not wearing a seatbelt while Musk drives and crashes a McLaren:

Thiel got a ride with Musk in his McLaren. “So, what can this car do?” Thiel asked. “Watch this,” Musk replied, pulling into the fast lane and flooring the accelerator. The rear axle broke and the car spun around, hit an embankment, and flew in the air like a flying saucer. Parts of the body shredded. Thiel, a practicing libertarian, was not wearing a seatbelt, but he emerged unscathed.

Isaacson doesn’t explain why John Stuart Mill and Milton Friedman are against seatbelts in supercars. (I would like an explanation of why the rear axle broke! A pothole on Sand Hill Road?!? Quelle horreur! Acceleration per se doesn’t seem like a plausible cause. In the video below, Musk says “the rear end broke free”; Isaacson, the Harvard graduate, may not have understood that this describes wheelspin, not the rear axle and wheels coming off the car.)

Speaking of coronapanic, Musk and Bill Gates meet in March 2022. They had to agree to disagree on Mars colonization (Gates thinks lacks practical value, as do I, though planning to get to Mars means that if you fail your engineering work makes getting to orbit dirt cheap.)

At the end of the tour, the conversation turned to philanthropy. Musk expressed his view that most of it was “bullshit.” There was only a twenty-cent impact for every dollar put in, he estimated. He could do more good for climate change by investing in Tesla. “Hey, I’m going to show you five projects of a hundred million each,” Gates responded. He listed money for refugees, American schools, an AIDS cure, eradicating some mosquito types through gene drives, and genetically modified seeds that will resist the effects of climate change. Gates is very diligent about philanthropy, and he promised to write for Musk a “super-long description of the ideas.”

Money for refugees? I haven’t heard of Bill Gates doing anything for the 1.7 million Afghans recently expelled from Pakistan nor for the nearly 400,000 Palestinians expelled by Kuwait. Gates wants to fight climate change and also make some money betting that nobody wants electric cars:

Gates had shorted Tesla stock, placing a big bet that it would go down in value. He turned out to be wrong. By the time he arrived in Austin, he had lost $1.5 billion. Musk had heard about it and was seething. Short-sellers occupied his innermost circle of hell. Gates said he was sorry, but that did not placate Musk. “I apologized to him,” Gates says. “Once he heard I’d shorted the stock, he was super mean to me, but he’s super mean to so many people, so you can’t take it too personally.” The dispute reflected different mindsets. When I asked Gates why he had shorted Tesla, he explained that he had calculated that the supply of electric cars would get ahead of demand, causing prices to fall.

[after Gates keeps hitting Musk up for cash] “Sorry,” Musk shot back instantly. “I cannot take your philanthropy on climate seriously when you have a massive short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to solve climate change.”

“At this point, I am convinced that he is categorically insane (and an asshole to the core),” Musk texted me right after his exchange with Gates. “I did actually want to like him (sigh).”

Musk’s investments in Neuralink should be considered nonprofit donations in my opinion. This is blue sky research of the type that governments typically fund because there is no reasonable expectation of a return on investment.

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Nine minutes of Formula 1 glory at the Las Vegas Grand Prix

This is a report on the spectator experience at the Thursday evening Formula 1 practice session in Las Vegas 2023.

My friends had $1,500 three-day tickets in the West Harmon bleachers (the cheapest seats; the average price paid was, supposedly, $7,000). One week prior, I bought a Thursday night resale ticket for $180 plus $35 in Ticketmaster fees, managing to get into the same row as my friends.

The obvious hotels were Planet Hollywood, Paris, and Horseshoe, which are walking distance from the West Harmon entrance. These were available in the $100/night range (plus fees!). However, I was concerned that my flight from Burbank, California might be late and didn’t think that it would be possible to get from the airport to a hotel inside the track after 7 pm. (In fact, we saw cars and taxis going in and out continuously. There is at least one temporary bridge that was built over the track to allow access to hotel-casinos inside the track.) I booked a Hilton near the convention center for a slightly higher price and took the monorail with my friends.

How could hotel rooms during this event have become so cheap? Las Vegas has roughly 150,000 hotel rooms. “F1 claims a healthy 315,000 fans attended the grand prix over four days” (ESPN). That’s only about 100,000 people on any given day. If the predicted traffic and hassles scared off non-F1 tourists, the inevitable result was a lot of empty rooms.

The F1 hype began at the airport:

Our ticket enabled us to go in at 6 pm and begin eating the included Wolfgang Puck food and drinking the included non-alcoholic beverages. We arrived just after 7 pm to poke around the fan environment. A big screen displayed a pre-race TV show. There were a few fun activities for fans, but most had long lines. The food options included a weak hot dog, too-far-from-the-grill grilled cheese, a strange dry ramen box, chicken and waffles (cultural appropriation? they were good in any case), a purportedly Chinese-style chicken salad (more cultural appropriation), cider donuts (terrible), and churros (did not try). Lines for food were reasonable to non-existent. There were huge lines at the store until quite late:

Our bleacher seats had a good view, but the legroom was tight for anyone over 5’6″. The temperature was about 55 degrees. Here is what it looks like (1) walking up the stairs (note portapotties in the background; they really needed people to perform hourly cleanings on what became disgusting environments), (2) the (distant) environment for the rich and famous, and (3) the view of the track from near the top of our bleachers (we were actually sitting quite a bit closer).

When the cars began zooming by at 8:30 pm, it was impressive to see the showers of sparks from cars scraping minor bumps in the road in front of us. At around 8:39, however, the race was halted because, we were told, a manhole cover’s concrete frame had failed. I was deeply confused by this because the course is on a public street. If trucks drive over the manhole daily and don’t break it, how could an 1,800 lb. F1 car, even with a downforce multiplier, break it? I haven’t figured out the full story. The F1 folks say that a concrete frame failed, but not whether it was a new concrete frame installed for the race or the standard frame put in some years ago by the city. I think that the answer to the “why didn’t it fail when a truck drove over it a week ago?” question might be that the F1 car broke the cover/frame with force in the opposite direction. I.e., the cover was sucked up rather than pushed down. This is a force direction for which manhole covers aren’t normally engineered.

The second practice was scheduled for midnight. Quite a few people stayed to drink $12 beers and $39 LED-lit trophy-style glasses of booze:

We walked out to the nearby Horseshoe casino (formerly Bally’s) and relaxed. Even with the track being hot, people were getting in/out via taxi:

My friends went back to their apartment around 11 pm. They were unconvinced that the midnight practice would happen on schedule and were planning to return for Friday and Saturday. I decided to reenter the fan zone. The monitors displayed messages saying that there would be an update soon. There was no longer a line for podium photos, so I got a picture to take credit for winning the race on the damaged track via rugged Honda Odyssey:

At 12:30 am, the monitors promised that the next practice session would start at 2:00 am. I bailed out because I needed to get on an 11:20 am flight from LAS. What happened to the diehard fans who stayed? The organizers kicked them out of their seats at 1:30 am, then ran the practice beginning at 2:30 am with no spectators. It was like a CIA torture scheme in which the enemy is kept awake for hours and then denied what was promised.

I’m glad that I didn’t buy anything at the store because everyone received a follow-up apology email from the F1 folks with a $200 coupon for merchandise as compensation for the missed hours of racing action. Which two hats will I be able to get with this $200 coupon plus $50 for tax and shipping?

The next day I went past the Greenspun College for Urban Affairs and very nearly found the DEI gates:

Inside the terminal, I found Sainz’s car after the manhole cover encounter:

Would I go back? Even with the monitors provided, it was much more confusing to try to follow the race live compared to watching on TV and having things explained. For Jho Low types who don’t mind spending $10,000+ on a three-day ticket, I’m sure that the luxury zone with pit tours is fun and comfortable. It’s a permanent building so probably they have some decent bathrooms at least. I guess it would be worth it if you’re plugged into the international set of other people to whom $10,000 is pocket change and the event would be a chance to see a lot of your friends.

For everyone else, perhaps a last-minute ticket to the Friday evening event would make sense followed by watching the main race on TV in order to (a) save money, and (b) learn what was happening. It is straightforward to go in and out by monorail. If there is a long gap between races, it is easy to go out of the event, find a relaxing place to sit at a restaurant or in a casino bar, and then return.

Readers: Who understands the mechanism via which the manhole cover failed? Also, who enjoyed watching the race on TV?

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Medical School 2020, Year 4, Week 31 (Anesthesia, week 1)

We meet at 7:00 am in the “Anesthesia Ready Room”, a small office with only three computers shared by the 50-person anesthesia private practice. I was excited to be assigned to follow Dr. D, who is widely respected by surgeons. He’s a pale 38-year-old sporting wide circular glasses. We go into OR 17 to set up for the case, a left total knee arthroplasty. He shows me how to pull medications by inserting a needle attached to a syringe into the rubber sealed glass vial. We go over how to pull doses of common anesthesia medications, e.g., succinylcholine, rocuronium, propofol, etomidate. “As a general rule, the right dose is usually half of the vial. That was true during my training, but people have gotten a tad larger now so maybe round up.” He adds, “The exceptions are these.” He points to a nondescript compartment in the anesthesia cart where epinephrine, phenylephrine, and ephedrine are stored. “I’d say the most common medication that I see get overdosed with serious consequences is phenylephrine (“Neo”). It’s meant to be made into a drip (“gtt”, latin for guttae or drops) by inserting the dose into a 100 mL bag for pressor support over time. A typical rate is 100 mcg/min. We use it by giving 200 mcg as a one-time dose for pressor support between induction and the operation beginning.”

“One of the hardest things to do as an anesthesiologist is to do nothing. The patient’s blood pressure drops when we induce the patient. A lot of people want to reflexively fix that with a pressor like ephedrine or phenylephrine,”. Dr. D continues. “Watch how much the blood pressure increases once we start intubating and cutting on the patient.”  We put the pulled medications (in syringes with attached needles) into a locked drawer on the ventilator workstation. He then asks if I have intubated before and with which laryngoscope blade. I respond that I’ve intubated twice, and have used only a “Mac” (MacIntosh laryngoscope features a curved blade versus the straight Miller laryngoscope). “I don’t understand people who use Miller. It’s forcing the pharynx to be a straight configuration when it’s clearly not.” He grabs a “7 French” endotracheal tube (ETT) and Mac 3. I ask, “Should I get a stylet?” (Stylets are a stiff malleable metal wire that is inserted into the ETT to help guide it through the cords.) He laughs, “Stylets are not necessary. It’s $11 that goes down the drain.”

We head to pre-op to consent a 58-year-old for general anesthesia and potential blood products. She is about to undergo a total knee arthroplasty (replacement) with general anesthesia. He asks the patient standard anesthesia questions: any dentures? Previous anesthesia, and if so, any problems? The patient answers that she has terrible post-operative nausea. He asks her to open her mouth wide, and touch her top lip with her bottom teeth (assess range of motion of jaw). She signs the forms, and then the anesthesiologist performs an adductor canal nerve block under ultrasound guidance. A pre-op nurse is dedicated to assist with these nerve blocks. Looking for a good lifestyle job in healthcare? The nerve block nurse’s only job is to wheel an ultrasound cart over and hand the anesthesiologist a pre-op needle, which means she’s busy only about 30 percent of the time and then goes home at 2 pm. We head back to the OR.

After a few minutes waiting in the OR, the nurse wheels the patient in. I clumsily attach the pulse oximeter, three electrode lead stickers, and blood pressure cuff. I mistakenly attach the “left leg” lead, supposed to go under the left breast, on a layer of gown. “Honey, this isn’t my breast!” I grab another sticker and place it below her breast and attach the electrode. He supervises me closely as I preoxygenate the patient with a mask delivering 100 percent oxygen. He then pushes the propofol into the IV and we wait a few seconds. He instructs, “gently touch her eyebrows to assess if she’s asleep.” The first time her eyelid twitches but after five more seconds she is fully induced. 

“Let’s see how you mask ventilate. This is probably the most important skill in anesthesia. If you can mask a patient you can relax.” I adjust the pressure in the circuit with a knob as I squeeze a 2 L bag with my right hand and use a “C” grip on her mask and jaw to elevate the jaw. “Really squeeze at the angle of her mandible. Get in that crease.” I am squeezing the mask with my thumb and index finger in a “C” shape to rotate it against the jaw that is being pulled up and out to move the tongue forward and open the airway. The first breaths I hear a leak as I squeeze the bag with my other hand, but adjust my grip. I look for chest rise, fog in the mask on exhalation, and finally check the end tidal CO2 mass spectrometer waveform on the anesthesia workstation.

As I mask the patient monitoring the end-tidal CO2, tidal volumes, and peak pressures (keep under 20 mmHg to prevent air from going into the stomach), the attending asks me, “We know we can mask the patient, so we can relax. Why do we pre-oxygenate?” I answer with a snarky response, not understanding the full significance of the question. “Umm, to get more oxygen in them.” He responds with a smile, “Yes, but why does it work?” He explains that at the functional residual capacity (FRC, the amount of air in the lungs when exhaled such as when paralyzed) there is 2 L of air, and therefore 400 mL of oxygen (20 percent at 1 atm). Your body uses about 35 mL oxygen per kg per min, which varies depending on the health of the individual and food intake.” For a typical 70 kg person, that is 35 mL oxygen per second so I would only have about 10 seconds before the patient starts to desaturate if we intubate without preoxygenation. He summarizes, “Pre-oxygenation is really denitrogenation of the air.” Instead of only having 400 mL oxygen, by masking the patient with 100 percent FiO2, the patient now has 2 L of oxygen, allowing for about a minute before the patient begins to desaturate. In reality once you preoxygenate, you have several minutes before you need to worry.” After another few breaths, he states, “You’re ready. Give it a try… Wait. Take your badge off, you don’t want to cause a corneal abrasion. Those hurt more than a kidney stone!” He pushes the Rocuronium, a paralytic agent that will prevent the patient from moving any somatic (voluntary) muscle.

After I transfer my badge, notebook, and pens from the front scrubs pocket into my pants, I grab the Mac blade, scissor the upper and lower teeth with my thumb and index finger to open the jaw, and place the blade in horizontally, avoiding the teeth. My goal is to first locate the right tonsillar pillars, then sweep the tongue with the blade over to the left, and insert the blade deeper until I identify the epiglottis. I struggle to find the epiglottis in this patient, and hand it over to the attending who quickly inserts the tube. “Good technique, that was a hard airway. Better luck next time.” He adds, “Careful when removing the blade. A chipped tooth comes right out of my paycheck. $10,000, no question.” 

I auscultate both lungs (listen with a stethoscope) to confirm good airflow, look for fog in the tube, and confirm end-tidal CO2 for a few breaths. He laughs as he’s already given a few bag breaths and turned on the ventilator setting to pressure control (ventilator mode that delivers volume up to a set amount of airway pressure). “It’s good to do that as a habit, but I saw the tube go through the vocal cords, I see good fog in the tube, and consistent end-tidal CO2. Confidence in medicine is key, especially in surgery. Confidence comes from experience. Now, relax. You’re welcome to grab some breakfast or coffee. We’ll just be sitting here until the case ends.” (In search of a stooI, I wander the OR hallways until an OR nurse guides me to the stash. I lug the stool through the maze of gadgets in the OR suite while trying not to touch anything sterile.)

Dr. D has a dedicated chair. We sit together and look at our phones (no need to wear gloves unless touching the patient) for two hours while occasionally talking about subjects he thinks will be helpful, e.g., his ABCDEFGHI mnemonic for taking over a patient.  Airway (confirm placement of airway), Breathing (look at end-tidal CO2, peak pressures, pulse oxygen saturation, arterial blood gas, if applicable), Circulation (blood pressure and heart rate, EKG), Drips (ensure medications are in, including pain, nausea, etc.), Effluent and Fluids (ensure good urine output and adjust IV fluids accordingly), Heat (don’t forget the Bair Hugger), and Injury (make sure the neck is in a neutral position, the eyes are not in contact with anything, the arms are not under pressure and pronated; he explains to me that the ulnar nerve is the most common injury during anesthesia. A lot of time the surgeon is not present when positioning the patient, he explains this is a bad habit because the surgeon is just as liable for any positioning injury as the anesthesiologist). The surgeon tells us that they are starting to close as he unscrubs and steps out of the room to allow his PA to suture the skin and dress the patient.  

[Editor: “Doctor Says a Device He Invented Poses Risks” (New York Times, December 24, 2010), “Two decades ago, Dr. Augustine, an anesthesiologist in Minnesota, helped pioneer the idea of keeping a patient warm during surgery. Doing so, studies have shown, produces benefits like less bleeding and a faster recovery. Dr. Augustine’s invention, the Bair Hugger, changed surgical practices and made him a fortune. The device, which works like a forced-air heater, carries warmed air through a hose to a special blanket that is draped over a patient. These days, Dr. Augustine asserts that his invention is a danger to surgical patients receiving implant devices like artificial heart valves and joints. The forced air, he says, can spread bacteria associated with hospital-acquired infections. Coincidentally, Dr. Augustine, who no longer has a financial stake in the Bair Hugger, also says he has a safer alternative, a warming device that works more like an electric blanket and does not use forced air.” A twin-size electric blanket is $25 on Amazon in 2020. Why did 3M pay $810 million for a company making this hot air system? Why wouldn’t hospitals just buy blankets from Amazon and throw them out after each surgery? Ordinary blankets are used in the OR, washed, and reused.]

We turn off the anesthesia gas and reverse the rocuronium with sugammadex. The anesthesiologist explains as we wait for the patient to wake up that rocuronium has become the standard paralytic because of this new reversal agent. “It was a brilliant move by the pharmaceutical company. If you don’t use the reversal agent, the patient could feel short of breath and weak for several days.” He adds, “You also don’t want to get that call from a lawyer when the post-op patient has respiratory distress.  ‘Why didn’t you reverse her?'” When the patient starts to move her arms, and cough, I deflate the ETT balloon cuff, and pull the tube out. The anesthesiologist pushes the bed into “steer” mode and carts her off to the post-op recovery room, jumping on the frame and riding the bed around every turn as he waves to the OR staff. I struggle to keep up with him. He backs the patient into the post-op room, and “gives report” to the nurse. We head to pre-op (right next door) to get ready for the next

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Elon Musk and “pedo guy”

I was shocked and horrified when Elon Musk called a young brave Thai cave rescuer “pedo guy” for no apparent reason. Why would someone who’d volunteered to fly from his comfortable and safe British home to risk his own life to save Thai teenagers be subject to any kind of criticism?

Elon Musk, the book, sheds some light on this topic. First, Musk was goaded into helping and then told to continue working on a mini-sub:

“I suspect that the Thai govt has this under control, but I’m happy to help if there is a way to do so,” Musk tweeted. Then his action-hero impulse kicked in. Working with engineers at SpaceX and The Boring Company, he began building a pod-like mini-submarine that, he thought, could be sent into the flooded cave to rescue the boys. Sam Teller got a friend to let them use a school swimming pool for testing that weekend, and Musk began tweeting pictures of the device. The saga became a global news story, some criticizing Musk for grandstanding. Early on Sunday morning, July 8, he checked with a leader of the rescue team in Thailand to make sure that what he was building might be useful. “I have one of the world’s best engineering teams who usually design spaceships and spacesuits working on this thing 24 hours a day,” he emailed. “If it isn’t needed or won’t help, that would be great to know.” The rescue team leader replied, “It is absolutely worth continuing.”

Of course, the mini-sub wasn’t needed after all.

There the story would have ended, except that a sixty-three-year-old English cave explorer named Vernon Unsworth, who had advised Thai rescuers on the scene, gave an interview to CNN dissing Musk’s efforts as “just a PR stunt” that “had absolutely no chance of working.” Unsworth suggested, with a giggle, that “he can stick his submarine where it hurts.” Trolls and detractors fling insults at Musk every hour, and occasionally one sends him into orbit. He responded with a barrage of tweets attacking Unsworth, concluding one of them with “Sorry pedo guy, you really did ask for it.” When another user asked Musk if he was calling Unsworth a pedophile, he responded, “Bet ya a signed dollar it’s true.”

Musk sent an “off-the-record” email that BuzzFeed made public:

“I suggest that you call people you know in Thailand, find out what’s actually going on and stop defending child rapists, you fucking asshole,” Musk began. “He’s an old, single white guy from England who’s been traveling to or living in Thailand for 30 to 40 years, mostly Pattaya Beach, until moving to Chiang Rai for a child bride who was about 12 years old at the time. There’s only one reason people go to Pattaya Beach. It isn’t where you’d go for caves, but it is where you’d go for something else. Chiang Rai is renowned for child sex-trafficking.”

My impressions from following the headlines were, of course, wrong. The guy with whom Musk had traded insults was not one of the actual cave rescuers who’d left a comfortable English home. He was an old British guy living in Thailand who had a lot of experience exploring the cave, but his main role in the rescue was providing phone numbers for British cave rescue experts. Unsworth did not bring out any teenagers himself. Musk was simply guessing that Unsworth was a sexpat rather than merely an expat who loved Thai culture. The guess was not supported by tabloid investigation. Daily Mail found the 63-year-old Unsworth living with a 40-year-old girlfriend:

Related:

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Medical School 2020, Year 4, Week 30 (Radiology, week 2)

I ask to focus on abdominal CT during this final week of radiology, which turns me into an expert on finding steatosis (fatty liver, caused by alcohol, viral hepatitis, or obesity). It’s easy to identify because it’s on every abdominal and pelvic CT! Prasanna’s partner explains how to differentiate steatosis from fibrosis/cirrhosis by the liver morphology. CT can differentiate interfaces between air (-1000 Holmzfeld units), fat (-100), water (0), soft tissue (30), and bone (1000). The liver and spleen should be similar densities. As fat infiltrates the hepatocytes, however, the liver density begins to drop below 60. NASH (non-alcoholic steatohepatitis) is expected to surpass alcohol-associated liver failure to become the number one cause of liver transplantation. The radiologist explains, “The liver edge should be smooth. Once fibrosis occurs, it becomes nodular. Cirrhosis is also associated with enlargement of the caudate and left lobe. You can do a ratio, but just eye-ball it.”

The abdominal work list is exploding. The attending yells, “Six scans come off one scanner in one hour. Six abdominal scans. Why couldn’t they have interweaved some lumbar and head CT? Come on! I can do maybe 5 CTs per hour. Six from one scanner, and this seat covers five other scanners. We are just getting slammed.” As soon as he is done venting and has refocused on another case, his phone rings. “Come on!”

We overhear Prasanna yell, “God Dammit.” We walk over to investigate. Prasanna waves me in. “This is the MRI from the hip arthrogram we did earlier today. What do you see?” Based on irregular T2 signals with T1 replacement (bone marrow destruction) and articular cartilage flattening, I answer, “O-N.” Osteonecrosis is bone death, typically due to reduced blood flow. He tries to pull up the X-ray. “They didn’t get a f***ing X-ray. This is why you always get an X-ray first. This could have been diagnosed weeks ago instead of waiting for an MRI. He’s going to lose both hips.” I ask what caused this? “O-N can be caused by lots of things. Osteomyelitis (or infection of the bone) is one, but I don’t think both his joints are infected. It could be from long-term steroid use, inflammatory conditions, congenital abnormalities, and trauma. There’s a whole differential. Sometimes it’s just idiopathic [unknown cause].”

We do a leg bone length study on a 13-year-old. Children who suffer a broken leg can end up with one leg growing dramatically longer than the other. We measured from the top of the femoral head to the top of the talus. “The truth is orthopedists do their own measurements, so I don’t get too technical. Each has his or her own favorite method. Some old school private practice orthopaedists keep their radiographs in-house. I do all this for our health system billing and CYA. They need our help for MRIs and CTs.” Prasanna asks, “What do you think the most common lawsuit is for orthopaedists that keep radiographs in house? … Missing lung cancer on a shoulder X-ray.”

On Friday, I work with a guy who finished radiology training only three years ago. “This seat [MSK] is so boring that it erodes my soul.” He drones “Normal” into PowerScribe after every X-ray, which allows ample time to discuss the coronavirus: “I don’t think people realize what is coming. The virus is reported to have almost a 20 percent infection rate. On the cruise ship, one asymptomatic person infected 600 people. Our health system covers about 1 million people. We have 54 ICU beds. The numbers just don’t work.”

[Editor: This is late February 2020, about two months after the media began intensive coverage of COVID-19. As it happens, the hospital never did run out of ICU beds. The hospital filled up completely in January 2021, but mostly because patients couldn’t be discharged to their nursing homes so long as they tested positive for COVID-19. See “Our hero’s hospital is full (but not with patients who should be there)” in which I noted “Essentially, the hospital is packed because, even with nearly a year to prepare, state and local health departments that regulate hospitals and track hospital capacity couldn’t get organized to turn empty hotels into Covid-19 halfway houses.”]

The junior radiologist continues: “On top of this will be a supply crisis. Our health system reverts back to the medieval age when we don’t have common medications. Penicillin is not made in the US anymore. There is going to be a huge shortage of needles. China supplies everything, and they are shut down.” Is he stockpiling? “Oh yeah.” He grabs another coffee, his fifth today. “Let me get caught up.” He speeds through 10 radiographs in a few minutes, dictating with prefilled phrases. He turns to me. “The three fastest radiologists I have ever seen are all here. The fastest offered to do 1.5 lists and get paid at 1.5 FTE. I can see his point because he could handle it, but it would set a dangerous precedent if all you care about is speed. His offer was rejected, so he started the medical student clerkship. We’re not all as fast as him, so we fall behind when students are here.”

We review a pelvic CT. He laments, “Look at this! Hip pain. It doesn’t specify if the pain is in the hip joint, greater trochanter, or SI joint. No clinical history. I’m so used to it, but this lack of communication hurts the patient. Help me help you! The worst is when we get an abdominal/pelvic CT for ‘abdominal pain, unspecified’.” He continues, “Epic has made this communication crisis worse. The ED doc or PCP just clicks a worthless button and moves on. I can use Epic to read the doctor’s notes, but I shouldn’t need to do that. The MSK seat is not as bad as the abdominal seat as there are far fewer potential diagnoses.”

Statistics for the week… Study: 0 hours. Sleep: 9 hours/night; Fun: 2 nights. Example fun: Dog playdate at a local park followed by a dog-friendly brewery.

The rest of the book: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

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Israel in Crisis, print edition

My mother is an American Jewish liberal Democrat (some redundancy in there?) and bought us a gift subscription to Moment, the magazine for American Jewish liberal Democrats. The latest issue arrived in the mail a few days ago. One of the cover stories is “Israel in Crisis”. Does this refer to the October 7 attack by Palestinians coming out of Gaza? To the military and political challenge of how Israel can fight a group that hunkers down in, around, and underneath hospitals? No. The “crisis” referred to relates to how power in Israel is divided between parliament and the supreme court (the democratically elected parliament is packed with haters, perhaps due to the large number of Jews in Israel who are descended from those who fled Arab countries starting in 1948 while the supreme court is enlightened, progressive, liberal, etc.).

I think this is a good illustration of the limitations of print-and-mail!

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Medical School 2020, Year 4, Week 29 (Radiology, week 1)

A two-week elective in MSK (musculoskeletal) radiology. The private practice radiology group that staffs our health system’s department offers 4 hours per day for medical students. I’ll be working in a large newly constructed clinic building from 9:00 – 11:00 am and 1:00 – 3:00 pm each weekday.

A typical day is as follows: I meet the attending on the MSK seat at 9:00 am. Precise Prasanna, a 39-year-old MSK fellowship-trained radiologist, is walking on the treadmill and dictating a shoulder MRI. He stops the treadmill to chat for a few minutes. Having arrived at 8:00 am, he is caught up on the worklist and has “parked” five interesting cases from this morning. He leaves the room for five minutes to refill his water and chat with his colleague on the abdominal seat while I go through them on the diagnostic monitor screen. 

I report what I have observed: “There is a high T2 signal in the right superior hip labrum.” He replies, “Good, look at the cam deformity [enlarged femoral head knocks into the acetabulum] causing femoral acetabular impingement.” He continues, “FAI is now known to be the most common cause of early osteoarthrosis. We see this all the time in female soccer players. A 10-year-old presents for anterior hip pain from a labrum tear. When you ask them they sometimes report their hip ‘stopping’ but kids get used to the impingement feeling. Twenty years ago we would have forgotten about it; now we realize FAI causes early OA so we intervene before destruction of the cartilage.” FAI can be diagnosed on a simple AP pelvis radiograph.

(Arthritis includes the suffix “itis,” suggesting inflammation, but most arthritis is due to wear and therefore osteoarthrosis is the preferred term.)

He points out the interesting aspects of 20 X-rays and 6 MRIs before it is time for live patients. We do three arthrograms, in which contrast agent is injected into the joint space under X-ray guidance. Most commonly, this is with gadolinium contrast in preparation for an MRI to fully assess the hip or shoulder labrum. Sometimes, this is to get better information from a patient who is not a candidate for an MRI. For example, Prasanna performs a shoulder arthrogram on a 28-year-old female bicycle accident victim whose implanted hardware following a previous humeral head fracture (motor vehicle collision) would distort the signal from susceptibility artifact. He points to the leaking of contrast from the joint space into the subacromial/subdeltoid bursa (fluid-filled cushion underneath tendons), indicating a full-thickness tear of the supraspinatus tendon. 

After lunch with Jane and our new puppy, I return for the 1:00 pm session. The radiologist in the abdominal seat calls me over to look at a CT scan of the chest and abdomen. “What do you see?” I respond, “There is a clear hypointensity disrupting the bright signal of the right pulmonary artery. Is this a pulmonary embolism?” He answers, “Yeah, I just sent her to the hospital. I don’t see any right heart strain. That’s all!”

Prasanna dictates reports with PowerScribe, voice recognition software specific to radiology. Every word he uses serves to further delineate the pathologic process. He explains to me that the main goal of an musculoskeletal radiologist is to pick up subtle findings of a pathologic process, e.g., rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis or severe meniscus tears, before it severely damages the articular (hyaline) cartilage. Once destroyed the joint is unsalvageable and must be replaced (arthroplasty). “For some diseases we can stop the inflammation with drugs or for some mechanical injuries an orthopedist can operate and prevent OA. If you see acute, non-traumatic, monoarticular arthritis, treat it as a septic joint until tapped [remove fluid with a needle].”

Every hour with Prasanna is an opportunity to learn more vocabulary, e.g., the Lisfranc ligament, named after the French surgeon who pioneered the “Lisfranc amputation” of the tarsal-metatarsal joint (mid foot) during the early 1800s. I learn names for common injuries from a shoulder dislocation, including the Hill-Sachs lesion (humeral head fracture as it strikes the glenoid) and the commonly accompanying Bankart fracture of the glenoid.

[Editor: read Madame Bovary for some insight into 19th century French foot surgery.]

School administrators had stressed that I was to work only with the MSK seat and stick to the 9-11, 1-3 schedule. On Thursday, however, I asked the two radiologists if it would be okay to work from 9-1, spending half the time with the abdominal seat, and having the whole afternoon free with the puppy. “Of course,” was the answer.

I watch Prasanna perform a hip arthrogram in prep for an MRI on a 59-year-old with worsening anterior hip pain and clicking for 3 months. He weighs at least 300 lbs. Once the needle is in the joint space, straw-color fluid slowly flows out of the catheter. This went on for a few minutes, until Prasanna aspirates a total of 50mL. “That feels so much better,” exclaims the patient. “I’m glad, the pain might come back a bit as I inject the contrast now.” After the procedure, he asks, “Do I need a hip replacement?” The radiologist explains, “We’ll know more once we get the MRI, but from just this X-ray, I see preservation of the joint space so my guess is no. You do have a large joint effusion and at least a labral tear so you might still need surgery, but not a joint replacement.”

The abdominal seat is reading a pelvic MRI on a 49-year-old female for rectal cancer staging. “The most important thing is if the tumor invades the sphincter complex.” The internal and external anal sphincter muscles are highlighted by the clear “intersphincteric fat pad” that is being pushed by the tumor on the posterior lateral side. The radiologist: “This is bad. She is going to probably have to get an APR (abdominal perineal resection, in which they remove the anus and create a colostomy). We’ll see what the rectal surgeons say at tumor board next week.”

We have a CT angiogram of an 86-year-old for an adrenal mass, her fourth in two years, due to an anomaly discovered on a CT scan after a fall. The abdominal radiologist says that the test should never have been ordered. “Leave this woman alone. Adrenal masses are statistically benign in the absence of metastatic disease (e.g., lung cancer). Teleradiologists never have the guts to ignore something out of fear of getting sued so she’s subject to never-ending imaging follow up.” He continues, “It’s weird to say, but I don’t always want the ordering provider to follow every finding in my report. Don’t treat the image, treat the patient. We balance this with the knowledge that this report will be forever cemented into the patient chart for litigation years in the future. We used to call up the ordering provider, or he would come down to us. With teleradiology, the doctors don’t collaborate and each one tries to defend against any possible lawsuit. It’s almost like we are in a game of tug-of-war on who bears legal ownership of a patient. Tag, you’re it! The result is that a patient who lives 4 hours from the nearest MRI machine will be doomed to perpetual follow-up on a statistically benign tumor.”

Statistics for the week… Study: 0 hours. Sleep: 8 hours/night; Fun: 2 nights. Example fun: Jane and I attend an engagement party for Outdoors Oswald, a mountain biker applying to emergency medicine at prestigious institutions. His fiance works for Epic, which allows her to work from home most days. She hopes to end up in New York City, even though “we’ll be broke.” They rented a private downstairs room, but did not order any food for the gathering. About half of the class was invited and consequently the open bar was used to the fullest extent. We left at 1:00 am with several classmates to grab a slice of pizza before Ubering home.

The rest of the book: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

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How is Rivian doing?

Back in November 2021, I asked “What edge does Rivian have in the truck or EV market?” and questioned the company’s stratospheric market cap. It has been two years. How is the company doing and how is the stock doing?

Given the calculation that working class subsidies to elite owners of EVs are $50,000 per vehicle (direct tax credits, higher costs for gas-powered cars due to EV percentage sales requirements, subsidized electricity), the company itself should be profitable. MotorTrend says otherwise: “Rivian Loses a Huge Amount on Every Vehicle It Sells” (October 5, 2023).

From May 2023, in the lower Manhattan neighborhood favored by elites (Chelsea):

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The wheels of justice move even slower than traffic in Los Angeles

“Under the 10 Freeway: Immigrant businesses scraped by while landlord dodged Caltrans” (Los Angeles Times):

Their landlord, Apex, owned by Ahmad Anthony Nowaid, had failed to pay rent on the 48,000-square-foot triangular lot at South Alameda and East 14th streets for more than a year, and owed $78,000, according to Caltrans, which sued the company for back rent in September.

The property was one of five that Caltrans was attempting to evict Apex and another Nowaid company from, including a plot along the 5 Freeway in Sun Valley and another a block away from the fire. All told, Nowaid owed about $620,000 to Caltrans in unpaid rent as of September, the agency said in court filings.

In April, court records say, a Caltrans employee visited the lot and told tenants to stop paying their rent to Apex as the state planned to evict the company.

Several tenants, including Serafin, said they stopped paying Nowaid this month after receiving notice from the court to appear for the lawsuit in December. They said that the moment they stopped paying rent, Nowaid threatened to lock the gates again.

The story is interesting because you’d think that the government would have great access to its own courts, yet a California state agency was apparently unable to use the California state courts to evict a nonpaying tenant. Via their strong tenants rights laws, Californians managed to flambée their own 10-lane freeway (not sure if freeway is masculine or feminine in French, but in California it can identify as any gender, presumably).

Separately, the headline references “immigrant businesses”. Diversity was supposed to be the freeway’s strength. The primary tenant was named “Ahmad”, an Arabic name that is a diminutive of “Mohammed”. The article describes the subtenants as immigrants from Mexico. As a group, they should have been super strong, yet the article describes the result as economically marginal.

“I lost everything,” Serafin said. “We are not educated people. Most of the people are people that crossed the border, work hard, or maybe grew up here. But we are working-class people. We break our back to barely make a good living.”

The triangular tract was chaotic, with no clear entrance or address, and with unhoused people living in tents and trailers outside its gates. Graffiti was scrawled around the perimeter. Inside, workers and equipment shared close quarters amid the stacks of pallets.

Serafin said fires regularly broke out in encampments around the property, but calls to police or for cleanups often went unheeded. He and others would sometimes pay homeless people $20 just to move away from their businesses.

“We’re living paycheck to paycheck,” said Jose Luis Villamil Rodriguez, 53, who had a mechanic stand under the freeway.

Maybe it works better for private landlords? An aviation friend owns some apartment buildings in California. He says to budget $80,000 to $200,000 in legal fees to evict a tenant who doesn’t pay rent and 1-2 years of time, but “if the word ‘Covid’ is mentioned they get 4 years.”

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Elon Musk’s biggest failure to date: the solar roof

Since the mid-1960s, the U.S. has been embarked on a program of rapid population expansion via low-skill immigration (Pew):

We bring in low-skill migrants who are destined to become lower-than-median earners (if they work at all) and insist that they be provided with at least reasonably high quality housing. This makes sense only if the cost of building housing, and delivering the required energy to that housing, can be reduced via innovation.

What about America’s most successful innovator? His contribution to this challenge has been the solar roof. From Elon Musk:

Musk had helped his cousins, Peter and Lyndon Rive, launch SolarCity in 2006, and he bailed it out ten years later by having Tesla purchase it for $2.6 billion.

As always, he invoked to [Brian Dow] the steps of the algorithm and proceeded to show how they should be applied to the solar roofs. “Question every requirement.” Specifically, they should question the requirement that the installers must work around every vent and chimney pipe sticking up from a house. The pipes for dryers and ventilator fans should simply be sheared off and the solar roof tiles placed on top of them, he suggested. The air would still be able to vent under the tiles. “Delete.” The roof system had 240 different parts, from screws to clamps to rails. More than half should be deleted. “Simplify.” The website should offer just three types of roofs: small, medium, and large. After that, the goal was to “accelerate.” Install as many roofs as possible each week.

[during a sample installation in 2021] Musk clambered up a ladder to the peak of the roof, where he stood precariously. He was not happy. There were too many fasteners, he said. Each had to be nailed down, adding time to the installation process. Half should be deleted, he insisted. “Instead of two nails for each foot, try it with only one,” he ordered. “If the house has a hurricane, the whole neighborhood is fucked up, so who cares? One nail is going to be fine.” Someone protested that could lead to leaks. “Don’t worry about making it as waterproof as a submarine,” he said. “My house in California used to leak. Somewhere between sieve and submarine should be okay.” For a moment he laughed before returning to his dark intensity. No detail was too small. The tiles and railings were shipped to the sites packed in cardboard. That was wasteful. It took time to pack things and then unpack them. Get rid of the cardboard, he said, even at the warehouses. They should send him pictures from the factories, warehouses, and sites each week showing that they were no longer using cardboard.

“We need to get the engineers who designed this system to come out here and see how hard it is to install,” he said angrily. Then he erupted. “I want to see the engineers out here installing it themselves. Not just doing it for five minutes. Up on roofs for days, for fucking days!” He ordered that, in the future, everyone on an installation team, even the engineers and managers, had to spend time drilling and hammering and sweating with the other workers. When we finally climbed back down to the ground, Brian Dow and his deputy Marcus Mueller gathered the dozen engineers and installers in the side yard to hear Musk’s thoughts. They weren’t pleasant. Why, he asked, did it take eight times longer to install a roof of solar tiles than one with regular tiles? One of the engineers, named Tony, began showing him all the wires and electronic parts. Musk already knew the workings of each component, and Tony made the mistake of sounding both assured and condescending. “How many roofs have you done?” Musk asked him. “I’ve got twenty years of experience in the roof business,” Tony answered. “But how many solar roofs have you installed?” Tony explained he was an engineer and had not actually been on a roof doing the installation. “Then you don’t fucking know what you’re fucking talking about,” Musk responded. “This is why your roofs are shit and take so long to install.”

The one-nail idea proved to be unworkable, failing during installation rather than requiring a hurricane. Musk’s intervention did result in reduced installation time, but he never got anywhere near the goal of 1,000 roofs per week. A year after the above events, and following the firing and replacing of quite a few top managers, the company was at 30 roofs per week.

(We tried and failed to get a Tesla solar roof for our house in Maskachusetts. See Tesla Solar Roof (the price is not the price). Here in Florida, we are theoretically using all solar power via paying a little extra every month. That extra money is funding a utility-scale solar array owned and operating by Florida Power & Light.)

In the rush to expand the U.S. population, nobody seems to have noticed that attempts to reduce construction costs have failed. The single-family home is still stick-built by developers in more or less the same way as 100 years ago. The dream of lower cost via prefab did not pan out. Apartment buildings aren’t getting cheaper to construct, in constant dollars, I don’t think, but inflation has been reduced by lowering quality. Developers use flammable wood and sprinklers instead of concrete. “Why America’s New Apartment Buildings All Look the Same” (Bloomberg 2019)

Los Angeles architect Tim Smith was sitting on a Hawaiian beach, reading through the latest building code, as one does, when he noticed that it classified wood treated with fire retardant as noncombustible. That made wood eligible, he realized, for a building category—originally known as “ordinary masonry construction” but long since amended to require only that outer walls be made entirely of noncombustible material—that allowed for five stories with sprinklers.

By putting five wood stories over a one-story concrete podium and covering more of the one-acre lot than a high-rise could fill, Smith figured out how to get the 100 apartments at 60 percent to 70 percent of the cost.

the buildings have proved highly flammable before the sprinklers and walls go in. Dozens of major fires have broken out at mid-rise construction sites over the past five years. Of the 13 U.S. blazes that resulted in damages of $20 million or more in 2017, according to the National Fire Protection Association, six were at wood-frame apartment buildings under construction.

Maybe these buildings won’t burn, but I expect them to degrade and sag more than a concrete apartment building would and be more resistant to rehab.

So… even our most successful innovator, backed up by $billions in capital, hasn’t been able to scratch, much less dent, the problem of housing costs being far higher than what immigrants can afford. And yet we continue to keep our border open.

Health care, obviously, is not affordable for today’s typical migrant, though the true cost is often disguised either by an employer or the government (Medicaid). Let’s also look at car prices. A car is the typical family’s third largest expense after housing and health care. It seems unfair to compare today’s pavement-melting SUVs to the cars of 1965. Maybe we could look at the bottom end of today’s car market as a comparable. CNBC says that this is 30,000 Bidies. That translates to about $5,500 in 1965 dollars (BLS). How much did a car cost in 1965? Hemmings says that a Corvette cost $4,223 in 1965 while a Mustang with a V-8 was $2,734. A basic Dodge Dart was $1,959 and a full-sized Chevy Impala was $2,295 (I think both would seat 6 humans, so they actually had more utility than today’s cheap cars!), according to this source.

So… the costs of producing all of the basics of American life have gone up, in real terms, since the modern immigration wave began, we do not seek to preferentially admit those who are likely to earn higher incomes, and even heroes such as Elon Musk can’t get the construction industry out of its productivity stagnation.

As there is no Spanish tile option for the Tesla solar roof, I don’t think that we would be able to get one. I typed in some data on our house, including that we pay $600/month for electric (the average number might be closer to $500) and got a quote from their web site:

If we assume a zero interest rate environment, the purchase price works out to 606 months of electric bills. The roof then pays for itself in 50 years. Perhaps it would be fairer to subtract the likely cost of a new tile roof since we will need one of those eventually. Let’s call that $80,000. Now we’re down to a 39-year payback period. This is before considering the subsidies from working class renters that our rulers have generously decreed.

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