Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

I am trying to convert a batch of WordPerfect files to PDF, ideally with the filename of each file displayed in a header. As Corel is the publisher of WordPerfect, I decided to download a trial version of their “PDF Fusion”. Dragging a WordPerfect file into the PDF Fusion app, however, produced an error of “-1”. Digging into the user guide, published on the “wordperfect.com” site, I discover that WordPerfect (WPD) is not one of the supported formats (you can start with Microsoft Word, Open Office, or WordPad files, however).

I think this deserves to be on the cover of Why you need a product manager magazine.

File under: Proud to be part of the software industry.

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The digital age has not been kind to Leica, especially with the killjoys at DxOMark showing the technical inferiority of their products to Sony’s and Nikon DSLRs equipped with Sony sensors.

The new Leica X-U may be an exception, however. It seems to be the first purpose-built underwater point-and-shoot camera with an APS-C sensor (same size as the popular Canon Rebel). The lens is a fixed 35mm equivalent, where “fixed” means that there won’t be any water leaking in through the lens mount. The cost is no worse than taking the family for a week at Club Med: $3000. The big missing feature is image stabilization.

The closest competitor is the Nikon 1 AW1, which has a smaller 1″ sensor and interchangeable lenses at a tiny fraction of the price. Customer reviews on the Amazon and B&H Photo mention problems with the water-sealing, which is not a great thing in an underwater camera…

Let’s hope that Olympus, which has a tremendous track record in rugged cameras, makes a four-thirds competitor to this Leica with image stabilization and a price under $1000!

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Well, I know that I’m stupid, but I’m wondering if I should feel a little dumber for not tracking the stock market regularly. The S&P 500 (chart) is back to where it was in April 2014 (about 1800). It was about 1500 in 2007. If we adjust that 1500 for inflation we get 1715 in 2015 dollars. The U.S. economy is growing at about 2 percent per year (WSJ). If we start with 1715 and apply 8 years of growth at 2 percent we get 2009. So the market is down only about 10 percent from where we would expect it to be if the 2007 price was right. A 10 percent decline is no fun for investors but it doesn’t seem like a good reason to start digging a bunker. Maybe the 2007 price wasn’t right after all!

What about the stock market good times of 2015? We didn’t earn them with economic growth so we shouldn’t be surprised that they were taken away from us.

Readers: What do you think? Is there any reason to think this is going to another 2008-style bloodbath?

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Here’s an idea for home decor: a wall of digital picture frames, each slightly recessed into the wall. Why not just a single big TV showing a collage? That doesn’t seem as visually interesting or attractive as a collage of picture frames in a variety of sizes.

If people can walk right up to the wall we ideally want at least 200 dpi resolution (standard “photo quality” for prints). Thus for a display that is 20 inches on the long dimension we would want a 4K resolution; a display that was just 10 inches wide could be 1080p.

What would one use for actual displays, though? A bunch of computer monitors? A 4K monitor marketed as “24 inches” is about 20 inches in width and costs a semi-reasonable $345 (Acer at Newegg). What if you have a cluster of such monitors, though? Do you need to have a PC buried in a closet that is crammed full of graphics cards and then run DisplayPort cables out of it (an AMD card that can drive six 4K monitors; an equivalent from Matrox)? Given the low-bandwidth communication that is required (one new image every 5 minutes?) it would be a lot better if the monitor could grab images via WiFi.

What about a bunch of TVs? The smallest TVs out there seem to be 22-24 inches in size and are 1080p resolution maximum (example from Vizio). Perhaps that will change over the next year or two. TVs do typically have WiFi and USB ports, but how to drive them without going crazy?

How about a cluster of digital picture frames (Amazon’s current collection)? They are a little on the small side, 15 inches maximum, and tend to be low resolution (1024×768 for example). It is not obvious how to drive a typical digital photo frame, even one with WiFi, from a personal computer.

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“After 7 Years of Slow Growth, U.S. Now Sees More of Same” is a WSJ article on how the U.S. economy refuses to grow much faster than the population growth rate (i.e., it barely grows on a per-capita, inflation-adjusted basis).

Since 2009 I have been having an intermittent argument with a friend’s relative, a Nobel Prize-winning economist. His assumption is that growth was and is the natural condition of an economy in general, as people figure out new and better ways to do things, and that growth was and is the natural condition of the U.S. economy.

My argument was that an economy with a large percentage of GDP spent by the government could stagnate given sufficiently inefficient execution of centrally planned activities, such as road-building. Casey Mulligan, the University of Chicago economist, weighed in with the argument that if you pay Americans on condition that they not work, a lot of them will not work (see “Book Review: The Redistribution Recession“).

Based on the WSJ analysis, it seems that my friend’s relative is more typical of mainstream economists. They have consistently over-predicted growth for the U.S. economy. What can we learn from this? Maybe as investors not to believe these kinds of predictions!

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Who else loves Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt? If you liked Ellie Kemper as Erin on the Office and haven’t seen this show you definitely need to subscribe to Netflix! (Yes, I know that I am late to the party but maybe one of the readers of this weblog has been stationed in Antarctica for a year and hasn’t heard about the show.)

The show captures the inequality Zeitgeist well. Schmidt is mocked for thinking that a “millionaire” is wealthy or “looking like a million dollars” is a compliment. Even the cheap shots at the South are funny. When Schmidt asks her roommate to tutor her in math, he says “I went to school in Mississippi; we learned that the dinosaurs went extinct because a meteor impact turned them gay.”

The spoiled helpless Manhattan lifestyle is on display here, as Schmidt gets a job assisting a rich stay-at-home mom. In a flashback she tells her parents that she is “Dating a rich older [married] man and lying about my birth control.” She advises Schmidt to bring “a condom and a pin” on a date with a wealthy young man (consistent with the New York chapter of Real World Divorce, describing that child support profits above $2 million can be challenging to obtain, the goal of the accidental-on-purpose pregnancy seems to be marriage). A therapist is on call to collect a share of the family’s income for allowing the parents to “talk to the shame puppet.” Consistent with the attorney’s comment in that chapter, “A person’s decision to divorce is primarily financial. Of course there are people who are concerned about the kids, but they are not very common. Sad to say it is all about money here in the U.S.,” when a divorce is contemplated on the show the only consideration is the plaintiff’s potential post-divorce spending power. Neither she nor any other character expresses concern for the possible impact on the children.

For a series set in Manhattan there isn’t much of Manhattan on display. Nearly all of the scenes are indoors.

Readers: What do you think/like about this show?

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New Yorker has a story on Ashima Shiraishi, a 14-year-old rock climber. She was born to Japanese immigrants living in Manhattan when her mother was past the age at which physicians recommend childbirth:

For more than ten years, they tried to have a child, availing themselves of every method they could afford. When Tsuya turned fifty, they were ready to give up, but their doctor urged them to try once more. “It was our last chance,” Tsuya said. In June, 2001, a daughter was born: Ashima. “She was a miracle baby,” Tsuya said.

Tsuya recalls that even in the hospital nursery Ashima ceaselessly moved her hands, arms, and legs: “All the time, not stop. I couldn’t believe it. I think she has monkey DNA.”

How about taking the doctors’ advice to rest up before the big climb?

Ashima often gets just five or six hours. She arrives home from climbing at eight-thirty in the evening, showers and eats, and then starts in on her schoolwork, which she insists on finishing. She’s often up well past midnight. “We say, ‘Don’t do homework!’ ” Tsuya said. When I asked her if Ashima got straight A’s, she said, “Yes. Well, sometimes she gets A-plus.”

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A year ago I posted “What would Martin Luther King, Jr. do for us today?”

That posting reflected the national discourse of the time, which was mostly about the extent to which government should redistribute income among residents and the portion of the economy to which Soviet-style central planning should be applied. In the intervening 12 months, the national discourse seems to have shifted back to the 1950s and 1960s concerns of Dr. King, i.e., rights for black Americans.

I’m wondering what he would make of our current situation in which young black Americans are preferentially admitted to our most elite universities but, once there, say that they feel “unsafe” (see Yale) while, on the other hand, crazy high crime rates in mostly-black cities, such as Baltimore and Detroit, are seldom newsworthy.

Readers: What do you think Martin Luther King, Jr. would be saying to us right now? I’m going to guess that he would have been opposed to the $15/hour minimum wage (since it will greatly exacerbate unemployment among black Americans, roughly double that for whites) and argue instead for an expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit.

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“Drunk with Power” is a New Yorker review of The War on Alcohol: Prohibition and the Rise of the American State, described by an Amazon reviewer as a “dreadfully dull and pedantic tome”. Perhaps this is a situation where it is better to read the review than the book!

There is some interesting material in here. The U.S. has a Prohibition Party, founded roughly 150 years ago, that still holds meetings:

Some of the old warriors kept the faith. (The Prohibition Party never disbanded, and held its most recent convention in July, by conference call; Gerrit Smith doubtless would have been more impressed by the technology than by the turnout, which was eleven.)

Alcohol is still a problem:

There are about thirty thousand gun-related deaths per year in America—and about ninety thousand alcohol-related deaths.

Though perhaps consumption was more than in the old days:

By one estimate, in 1810 the average American consumed the equivalent of seven gallons of pure alcohol, three times the current level.

What do readers think? Given enough immigrants from societies where alcohol is not consumed, combined with a decreased tolerance for anything that is upsetting, violent, or risky, could the U.S. return to Prohibition, at least on a state-by-state basis?

Related:

• Why can’t a country’s productivity be predicted by alcohol consumption?

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Taiwan has elected Tsai Ing-wen, a childless never-married 59-year-old (Wikipedia). This is a non-traditional status for a 59-year-old person and I’m wondering how revolutionary this is. Germany, of course, is led by the childless Angela Merkel.

Readers: What other countries are led by people who never had kids? And could this affect their decision-making? (e.g., perhaps Angela Merkel isn’t worried about the long-term demographic shifts that her policies entail; by the time Germany is no longer recognizably “German,” she will be likely be dead)

Notable historical examples of childless leaders: Adolf Hitler, Lenin, Ho Chi Minh.

Arguable: George Washington (Wikipedia says that he was an active stepfather to Martha’s children).

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