Category: Cars, including self-driving

Peace, love, Microbus, and MAGA

by philg

Eighty-eight years ago today, on May 26, 1938, the Nazi Party’s union labor organization laid the foundation stone of the first Volkswagen factory. Adolf Hitler was present to witness this step in his 1933 vision becoming a reality. (DW) And, of course, today is Memorial Day where we remember Americans who died in our fight to strip the Germans of their empire (a fight that might not have been necessary if we and the British had stayed out of World War I?).

Let’s have a look at a cherished survivor of this company’s output, spotted here in Jupiter, Florida:

It seems to have one of the 5 mph bumpers that NHTSA required from 1973-1982 so perhaps it is a second generation (1967-79) bus, beloved by hippies, anti-war agitators, Grateful Dead fans, etc. Here’s the surprise…

A closer look…

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Checking up on my 2003 Chinese-made car price prediction

by philg

From 2003, The Chinese car:

Within 10 to 20 years the Chinese will be able to sell a car that is very similar to today’s rental car: 4 doors, 4 seats, air conditioner, radio, new but not fancy. It will cost between $2000 and $3000 in today’s dollars. With cars that cheap it will be unthinkable to manufacture in the U.S. Consumers won’t bother to finance a $2000 purchase separately (maybe they’ll add it to their credit card debt).

Among the large range of my failed predictions, this one would appear to have been an unusually spectacular failure. Very few Chinese-made cars are available in the U.S. and they cost $40,000-70,000, not $3,000. Maybe there is some hope for salvaging my reputation as a prophet. “What a $15,000 Electric SUV Says About U.S.-China Car Rivalry” (Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2025):

For an American used to a $50,000 gasoline-powered SUV as the standard family choice, the Chinese market is hardly recognizable. … Chinese car buyers no longer need to debate whether an EV can be made affordable, not when a decent starter model costs $10,000 and a luxury seven-seater with reclining massage chairs can be had for $50,000. … Toyota said its bZ3X—the recently introduced model that starts at $15,000—was designed in China by the company’s engineers in the country, who worked with a local joint-venture partner. It is made in Guangzhou with Chinese batteries and driver-assistance software from Momenta, a Chinese leader in that field.

I was off by a factor of more than 3X, then? What if we adjust for the inflation that the government assures us doesn’t exist? Adjusted for official CPI, $3,000 in 2003 is equivalent to about $5,250 today. So I was off by only a factor of two! What if we try to adjust for inflation as experienced by Americans who buy houses? (official CPI excludes the cost of buying and living in a house in favor of a hypothetical “owner equivalent rent”) The Case-Shiller Index has gone from 133 to 324:

If we adjust the $3,000 number from 2003 with the growth in house prices, we get $7,300. My prediction was of a $7,300 car, then, in today’s money and the WSJ says that $10,000 now buys a reasonably good car (denied to Americans, but available in the world’s largest market for cars).

Related:

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46:1 ratio of car repair cost to failed part cost

by philg

Happy National Odometer Day to those who celebrate…

By taking a car to the dealer three times, I learned how white women with Long COVID feel. After every visit, the dealer said “Your AC is working perfectly.” On the fourth visit, the diagnosis was “There is no refrigerant in your system. It all leaked out from a failed receiver drier.” Because of Climate Change, I had no idea what a receiver drier was. From the Interweb:

1.They act as a temporary storage container for oil and refrigerant when neither are needed for system operation (such as during periods of low cooling demand). This is the “receiver” function of the receiver drier.
2.Most receiver driers contain a filter that can trap debris that may be inside the A/C system.
3.Receiver driers contain a material called desiccant. The desiccant is used to absorb moisture that may have gotten inside the A/C system during manufacture, assembly, or service. Moisture can get into the A/C components from humidity in the air. This is the “drier” function of the receiver drier.

It turns out that this is a $28.44 authentic General Motors part, including dealer markup. The total repair bill was nearly 46X this amount, however, at $1,297.34. I have to believe that this is some kind of record.

(Fortunately, the entire cost was covered by a $2,600 GM Protection Plan that I had purchased after hearing frightening tales of $25,000+ transmission replacements. The 2022 Chevrolet has only about 7,000 miles on it and will be covered by this extended warranty until it is 11 years old.)

It is a little tough to understand how the labor added up to $1,057.50. The shop’s nominal rate is $225/hr so that would be 4.7 hours of labor happening between the 7:45 am dropoff and 10:53 am “your car is washed and ready” pickup. Perhaps, though, this also includes some diagnosis time from Service Visit #4? Friends who’ve been getting Toyota and Audi repairs in Maskachusetts and Florida have reported some huge labor estimates/charges relative to the flat rate labor hours found with a Google search and/or the actual time the car spent in the shop. Dealers seem to be quoting and getting fixed prices that work out to $300-400/hr. for their labor. I wonder if car care has become like human care: you’ll pay a way higher price if you don’t have insurance and, therefore, it makes sense to buy “insurance” even when you don’t need the insurance part of the insurance (i.e., to shift the risk). Or just buy a high-quality Georgia-built Kia with its 5-year bumper-to-bumper warranty and 10-year powertrain warranty (Kia achieves its superb quality without the benefit of union workers).

Separately, let’s raise a glass of DOT 3 brake fluid to our 2021 Honda Odyssey (built in Alabama by non-union workers who rejected a UAW organization effort). After 4.5 years and 50,000 miles it has suffered exactly 0 failures of any kind. (The only expenses have been for maintenance items, such as oil changes, wiper blades, battery, tires, and brakes.) Due to the miracle of Bidenflation, the minivan is currently selling, in nominal dollars, for almost exactly what we paid for it (survey of similar-mileage Odysseys offered by dealers).

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Should a DUI conviction result in a license limited to operating a self-driving car?

by philg

Loyal readers know me as a neo-Prohibitionist (see Reintroduce Prohibition for the U.S.? (2016) and Use testing and tracing infrastructure to enforce alcohol Prohibition? (2020) and Coronaplague, experts, and Prohibition (2020)).

Courts are reluctant to take away convicted drunk drivers’ driving privileges because in many parts of the U.S. it is very difficult to function without a self-driven car (less true now than in 2005 due to Uber/Lyft).

How about an intermediate restriction on a convicted DUI American: a license limited to operating a full-self driving car? In an ideal world, of course, the supervisor of Tesla FSD wouldn’t be drunk. But if an alcoholic is going to be out on the road, and we know that alcoholics will be out on the road, wouldn’t all of us be far safer if the drunk driver’s job were limited to supervising an AI? The car itself could be tweaked to recognize that the driver was too impaired by alcohol for even the supervision function and then shut itself down.

We shouldn’t condone either drunk driving or drunk supervision of driving, of course, but on the other hand the U.S. is jammed with behavior that nobody condones. So maybe it is best to be realistic about our fellow Americans’ capabilities. Some people cannot lay off the booze (I actually don’t blame them. I was offered alcohol at 6:45 am by JetBlue a few months ago and nearly every restaurant in Florida seems to make various kinds of alcohol available with breakfast). If we accept that, maybe we can mitigate with a license restriction.

Jalopnik:

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Tesla hatred and thinking literally

by philg

A friend’s sister lives in a rich all-white all-Democrat suburb of Chicago. Her Tesla was parked at the top of her driveway and she found the following note on it:

A dispute among white Democrats regarding 50 shades of righteousness was, of course, gold from my point of view and I immediately deployed it on X and Facebook. I assumed that a quiet claim of authorship would be understood as ironic given (1) the expressed desire of the author to remain anonymous (“signed, your neighbor”), (2) the legible and, therefore, likely feminine handwriting, (3) the inconsistency with viewpoint-diverse Florida, and (4) the inconsistency with the rest of my social media and Web output. Of course, I was wrong!

Here’s part of a post from a university professor turned Facebook executive turned venture capitalist:

Concerning an example of a Tesla being “keyed” as an act of protest, and the owner understandably complaining about it:
I’m sorry this happened to you. It’s regrettable. I think it’s immoral and antisocial, in the ways you do.
But I do think the issue here is whether the conditions obtain to make it justified, rather than merely the structural claim that it’s wrong because it’s property destruction.
If the KKK were active in town and terrorizing and killing people with impunity, symbolic property rights infringement as a social retaliation would be regarded as understandable by many people.
There are of course many reasons to object to even that. It’s unlawful. It’s vigilante justice. It can be seen as socially destabilizing. So there are people who will say it’s never ok.
But many people think that unlawful civil disobedience is OK when the injustice issue is sufficient to warrant what they regard as a proportional response.  There’s a strong history of this in America. We like “law and order” but if we think the law is unjustly favoring the wrong order, we sometimes accept the moral appropriateness of unlawful behavior.
So I think if you want to object to this, it needs to be met at that level. And I must say that folks who own these vehicles who are upset about these events, do not seem to be acknowledging that and engaging with it as such. At least not that I’ve seen on social media.

When someone puts this much thought into the nuance of keying a Tesla (“civil disobedience” for Democrat A to damage Democrat B’s car), it is time to spring into action.

On the theory that the most believable lies contain some element of truth, much of my reply is true. There is a board-certified emergency medicine doc who shares an alley with us (access to garages in our neighborhood is via alley so that houses don’t have ugly garage doors in front). He is married (being divorced in our part of Florida, due to a feminism deficit, lacks prestige). He does have a Model Y from a couple of years ago and, in fact, recently said that the car made it from Gainesville to our neighborhood via self-driving without a single intervention (3.5 hours).

Despite the elements of truth, it didn’t occur to me that the thoughtful Facebooker wouldn’t see the attempt at humor. He has some familiarity with my failure to conform to righteous political dogma, for one thing. His response:

I think what you did is exactly the right kind of response. You aren’t trying to upset someone or retaliate against them with violence or property destruction, or some other sort of harm, lawful or not. Your interpreting their car is potentially problematic and you’re explaining to them why and mentioning the broader context. I think that even somebody who disagrees with your views should find that admirable.
Maybe somebody should create flyers with different interesting points on them and master distribute them to protesters and encourage them to leave them on cars instead do destruction.

The flyers could have a URL where the specific issue is being discussed and requested the person who owns the car participate.

A female Deplorable attacked me in the same thread and I admitted that the note was authentic, but my authorship wasn’t. That prompted the thoughtful original author to ask

So you didn’t write this note? But you left it for your neighbor? Or not even that?

When I confirmed that I was not the heroine behind the note, he added

Many of the things that I’ve seen you post on make you seem not just like somebody who disagrees with me politically but like a very mean spirited or unkind person. I was pleasantly surprised by this, but I can see now that actually you think that graciousness is worth mocking.

So… he is a kind person willing to look at the positive aspects of keying someone’s Tesla while I am an unkind person for mocking anti-Tesla hysteria among those who, just months ago, were saying that everyone should drive a Tesla in order to stave off a climate emergency.

Much the same thing happened on X. In response to a Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (99% as progressive as Queers for Palestine?)…

Some responses…

Sad that a professor at MIT and Harvard is so blissfully unaware as to think this is the first time an election has been bought. The naïveté is stunning.

(The guy clicked through to my profile, upgraded me from humble “teacher” to august “professor”, and didn’t learn enough from the context of my other posts to realize that this was a joke.)

From a “data scientist”:

You’re actually a retard aren’t you?

60,000 views and seemingly hardly anyone cottoned on to the claim of authorship being a joke.

Let me close this out with a photo from Sun ‘n Fun (Lakeland, Florida), in which a Tesla uses camouflage to hide from visiting progressives.

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In-dash exercise equipment for self-driving cars?

by philg

Traffic in the U.S. is going to get slower every year as the population continues to expand via immigration and children of immigrants (Pew, 2015). Self-driving systems are going to get better every year, but perhaps not good enough that they can be completely unsupervised. What are people going to do on multi-hour car trips where they still have to sit in the driver’s seat and look at the road? How about exercise? With more time lost to traffic jams Americans will have less time to hit the gym or walk in the neighborhood so we’ll get yet fatter and weaker unless the car itself becomes a gym.

Suppose that resistance bands were built into the dashboard, floor, doors, and ceiling of the car. I asked ChatGPT to generate an image of this, but the request fried our future overlord’s brain.

It could look something like this image from Amazon, but with the band attached to the door or the dash instead of to the wall:

I know that there’s a fine line between stupid and clever. Which side of the line is this idea on?

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Car price predictions in view of tariffs?

by philg

Democrat-run media says car prices will go up 25% due to Trump’s new tariffs. My prediction: average transaction price goes up 3% and if we hold the car model and trim level constant, up 5%. What’s the basis of my prediction? Americans spend every penny they can earn, borrow, win in family court, inherit, or steal. There simply isn’t any way for people to spend more on cars. (Prices did go up during coronapanic, but interest rates were low and the government was handing out $trillions in free money.)

Readers: who wants to take the other side of this?

(I’m personally in favor of free trade (zero tariffs) based on standard Econ 101 arguments. I believe that the classical Econ belief is that the U.S. is best off with zero tariffs even if other countries erect tariff barriers to our exports. In other words, we would be better off exporting nothing if it came to that so long as we could get cheap imports. However, if other countries blink first in the trade war that Donald Trump has started we might be better off than we were a few months ago.)

What happened to out family so far? The imported bicycles that we wanted to purchase have gone down by nearly 17 percent compared to a week ago:

REI (expanding in Florida, while closing stores in Portland, Oregon and Cambridge, Maskachusetts) and some independent bike shops all wanted to sell us XS adult bikes, which have enormous 700C wheels and weigh about 7 lbs. more than this Trek 26″ bike. Supposedly the kids won’t outgrow the XS adult bike as fast. My position is that road bike nerds will pay $thousands to shave 7 lbs. off a road bike so we should be happy to buy these with the expectation of reselling them in 2 years.

Loosely related…

And from today at Sun ‘n Fun, a Nash Metropolitan (it actually made economic sense to build cars in England back then!):

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Should cars be able to signal a U-turn?

by philg

Compared to Maskachusetts, Florida is the land of the divided thoroughfare, dedicated left turn lane, and legal U-turn. It’s a little tough for people making a right turn on red on the cross street, though, to determine if a driver is making a left turn (no conflict) or a U-turn (conflict).

Now that all of the exterior lights of a car are LED, why not a mechanism for signaling a U-turn to other drivers? The rear left turn signal could add an extra color and a “U” symbol that lights up in between flashes (there’s already an array of LEDs that make up the “taillight”, right?) The front turn signal, seen by the right-turning driver (above), could add the same standard extra color.

Perhaps the toughest part is the gesture to activate the U-turn signal. The stalk is already heavily overloaded with user interface (pull back for temporary bright headlights; push forward for persistent bright headlights). Maybe a steering wheel button?

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More Tesla Full Self-Driving reports

by philg

Our neighbor has a Model Y that is one generation behind the recently introduced one. He reports having made a 4-hour trip from Gainesville (home of University of Florida, which needs to branch out!) without once touching the steering wheel. I wonder if this supports a “yes” answer to Do self-driving cars work better in states with modern road networks, such as Florida?

A friend who is rich enough to pay $900/month to garage his Tesla X in Manhattan reports regular 3-hour trips to what he refers to as “Long Island” (fake humble; I suspect “the Hamptons” is more accurate) and intervening on average less than once per trip. The FSD feature was one of the reasons he was willing to purchase a second home that is so far away.

This CyberTruck in our neighborhood the other day is beginning to look better with every report like the above that I hear.

In other car news, Waymo is coming to Miami (this does not support my theory that Florida is easy because they say that the intermittent heavy rain in Florida interferes with their self-driving system (LIDAR?), though maybe a vision-based system such as Tesla’s is just as degraded and nobody cares because there is always a backup human available in the “supervised” FSD).

The Breakers hotel in Palm Beach has a fleet of EVs for ferrying guests around. They apparently didn’t want cars with a Nazi affiliation so, instead of Tesla, they’re using Maybach/Mercedes EQS 680s:

Also from The Breakers, a photo showing how much more beautiful cars have become over the years as humanity has advanced in aesthetic capability. In front we see a hideous old car and in the background the beautiful Chevrolet Suburban and the sinuous Mercedes G-Wagen (also Nazi-free):

The jalopy in the photo is, according to ChatGPT, “a 1963–1966 Rolls-Royce Silver Cloud III”.

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How is it safe for consumers to handle a megawatt of power for electric car charging?

by philg

“BYD confirms new 1,000V ‘Super E-Platform’ capable of fast charging 400km in 5 minutes” (electrek):

Chinese auto conglomerate BYD has introduced a new 1,000-volt EV platform that can enable charging rates as fast (or perhaps faster) than a trip to the gas station. We’re talking five minutes. … offers 1,000V and charge rates up to 1,000 kW.

How can this be made safe? If everything is new and everything functions as designed, the car and the charger communicate before the cable is fully energized. A GFCI will trip if a portion of the 1000 amps starts leaking out to ground (via the human holding it?).

Let’s assume that there aren’t any mostly peaceful Massachusetts climate change warriors to vandalize the charging station:

Both car and charger still face the relentless enemies of time and corrosion. GFCI outlets in home situations are known to fail after 10-20 years. Consumers aren’t going to wear heavy rubber gloves the way that trained utility workers do. How long will it be before the foolproof failsafe systems fail either due to unforeseen foolishness or age/corrosion? That leaves the EV owner (wearing a MAGA hat since Democrat climate change alarmists have gone back to pavement-melting SUVs?) with his/her/zir/their hands on a failed cable carrying enough power to run 800 houses.

Maybe the argument is that people will be killed by these 1000V charging systems as they age and get maintained by the same Americans who can’t make public WiFi work, but it won’t be a higher number than are killed in freak gasoline fight accidents.

Loosely related… a carefully engineered high-voltage power system with full redundancy (CNN) …

Even more loosely related…

Here’s ChatGPT’s response to “Create an image of a nonbinary Tesla owner next to his/her/zir/their car” with the refinement prompt “The shirt should more clearly indicate that the person identifies as a member of the 2SLGBTQQIA+ community”:

Grok seems to think that “nonbinary” is the same as “nonwhite”:

I asked ChatGPT “Redo the above image to look like a hand-drawn pen and ink sketch.” For some reason, it made a lot of other changes as well, including mirroring the orientation.

I wonder if someone could get an A in an online art class via the use of ChatGPT (the failure to spell “2SLGBTQQIA+” could be considered artistic license).

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