A visit to the Nobel Peace Center

by philg

Today is 9/11, the anniversary of the 2001 jihad, our reaction to which was to engage in years of war. I’m going to devote today to describing a visit to the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo.

The Peace Center is in a former train station, no longer needed because Oslo, unlike Boston, constructed a tunnel to unify all of its trains into one station. A view from the National Museum (mostly art):

The red brick towers behind the building are the City Hall, where the Nobel Peace Prize is actually awarded.

The visitor experience begins with a history of Alfred Nobel, whose father was an impoverished entrepreneur and engineer. In addition to being a chemistry nerd, he loved to write fiction:

When he was young and poor, women refused to marry him. When he was old and rich, he didn’t want to get married.

This is what set him up to die without heirs and, therefore, endow the Nobel Prizes.

Treason is not just for Donald Trump and the January 6 insurrectionists. Alfred Nobel was also convicted of treason:

The visitor can use a touchscreen “peace personality” explorer. If you put in zero interest in helping anyone, the software says that your closest match among Peace Prize recipients is Barack Obama.

Moving upstairs, we find a room devoted to polar explorer Fridtjof Nansen, who later become a diplomat. Nansen seems to have been one of the originators of the idea that people in non-Malthusian situations are obligated to send money, food, and other aid to prevent the consequences of Malthusianism. His lecture in 1922:

“When one has stood face to face with famine, with death by starvation itself, then surely one should have had one’s eyes opened to the full extent of this misfortune. When one has beheld the great beseeching eyes in the starved faces of children staring hopelessly into the fading daylight, the eyes of agonized mothers while they press their dying children to their empty breasts in silent despair, and the ghostlike men lying exhausted on mats on cabin floors, with only the merciful release of death to wait for, then surely one must understand where all this is leading, understand a little of the true nature of the question. This is not the struggle for power, but a single and terrible accusation against those who still do not want to see, a single great prayer for a drop of mercy to give men a chance to live.”

In the spirit of Nansen, the UN World Food Programme won the prize in 2020 “for its efforts to combat hunger, for its contribution to bettering conditions for peace in conflict-affected areas and for acting as a driving force in efforts to prevent the use of hunger as a weapon of war and conflict.”

There is a room of tablets on sticks, a bit like some of the installations in Marfa, Texas (“Visitors are required to wear masks indoors”, said the site on September 4, 2022). Each prize winner gets a tablet:

Following Olympic viewing procedure, we will concern ourselves only with Americans. Barack Obama (2009) is featured for creating “a new climate in international politics”. Quite a few winners are featured for ending wars, but somehow the Big Guy didn’t win in 2021 for ending our war in Afghanistan? Al Gore won in 2007 and Jimmy Carter in 2002. Notorious racist Woodrow Wilson won in 1919 for his role in founding the quixotic League of Nations. Norman Borlaug won for deferring our date with Malthus via the Green Revolution.

A notable non-American winner is the Dalai Lama, some decades before “Dalai Lama Says Europe is for Europeans, Refugees Should Go Home and Rebuild” (Newsweek 2018) and “Dalai Lama Says a Female Successor Must Be Attractive, or People Won’t Want to Look at Her Face” (Newsweek 2019).

The museum promotes “freedom of expression”, but the gift shop suggests that some perspectives are more welcome than others. A sampling:

Gro Harlem Brundtland, Prime Minister from 1990-1996, liked to say “It’s typically Norwegian to be good at things.” (source) The Nobel Peace Center is certainly consistent with this point of view.

Readers: What are you thinking about today with respect to the events of 9/11/2001?

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The least insane electric aircraft vendors at Oshkosh

by philg

The typical electric aircraft company is stuffed with cash on one end (e.g., “Joby Aviation raises $1.6 billion in SPAC merger at $6.6 billion valuation”) while huge promises come out the other end. So far there is little evidence of delivery on the promises that were made years ago, much less on the more recently made promises. Example promise: Joby now says that they’ll be operated eVTOL air taxis in 2024; they tout the fact that they got an air carrier certificate using, apparently, a Cirrus, as evidence that they are progressing toward this goal.

Generally speaking, the electric aircraft folks who showed up to Oshkosh 2022 had the same promises that they were making at Oshkosh 2018, e.g., “we’ll be certified and flying commercially in three years.” It doesn’t seem as though any progress has been made. The batteries are the same as in 2018. The computers and software that enable autonomy and/or idiot-proof human piloting are functionally the same as in 2018. The overall aircraft architectures are the same as in 2018. What these folks are doing with their $billions is a mystery. Let’s keep in mind that the U.S. involvement in World War II spanned the same time period: four years. Admittedly the percentage of GDP devoted to improving aircraft technology was larger, but the changes from 1941 to 1945 were dramatic indeed (B-17 to pressurized B-29, for example; development of the Lockheed P-80 jet fighter).

One area where it seems as though electric-powered aviation has a good chance of near-term success is carrying cargo, e.g., for “last mile” deliveries or going out to islands. What vehicle is already big enough to carry 200 lbs. of cargo and doesn’t need a runway? A single-seat helicopter! These have always been niche products since there aren’t a lot of folks who want to build and fly their own one-seat helicopter that is even trickier to fly than a Robinson R22. But what if the cabin is turned into a cargo compartment and the flying is handed over to a computer with the fast reflexes required to make this kind of machine safe? The folks behind the Mosquito helicopter, in partnership with a Canadian company, are doing just this:

At least for the moment, the heavy lifting will be done by a conventional gasoline-powered engine. Since Oshkosh is more about the human experience of aviation, including building one’s own aircraft, the biggest companies in drone cargo weren’t there, but the event reminded me to check in with Amazon. A June 2022 press release says “We are working with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and local officials in Lockeford [California] to obtain permission to conduct these deliveries and will continue with that collaboration into the future.” So it could happen next week, next year, or next decade!

Readers: What’s your best guess as to when it will be possible to get an aerial Uber in at least 5 U.S. cities? And your best guess as to when it will be possible to get packages delivered by drone to your suburban house in at least 5 U.S. metro areas? Given the technical and regulatory challenges, I’m going to say 2028 for the Ubers and 2026 for the delivery-to-house drones. I think there will be regular drone-based delivery services to at least 5 remote areas of Canada, however, by 2024 (smaller population means it will be easier to get everyone to agree).

Related:

  • NASA at Oshkosh (thinking about how to ensure that these autonomous vehicles are airworthy on a continuing basis)
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Europeans printing their way to happiness

by philg

“As Crises Mount, Europe Turns Once Again to Big Spending” (NYT, today):

Nationalizations. Subsidies. Cash handouts. Price caps. Profit taxes. It’s back to 20th-century economics in Europe.

Governments are resorting to old-school solutions, long dismissed as bad policy, throwing vast amounts of money at the energy crisis engulfing the region, in a bid to avert a political, social and economic meltdown.

In response [to rising energy prices], E.U. governments have already earmarked more than $350 billion to subsidize consumers, industry and utility companies; ministers are to meet on Friday to finalize the bloc’s direct intervention in markets to grab excess profits, cap electricity prices and subsidize utilities companies.

The huge public spending is in addition to a nearly trillion-dollar stimulus package adopted over the past year to deal with the economic fallout from the pandemic, mostly through borrowing. The ballooning debt load would have normally caused an uproar in the bloc, where fiscal conservatism has dominated policy and politics for years.

“This is clearly an exceptional and one-off situation,” said Daniel Gros, a German economist and director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank, who normally takes fiscally conservative positions. “It’s different from increasing unemployment or social benefits structurally forever, and it’s a special situation that won’t last forever.”

The last paragraph is my favorite. Coronapanic was exceptional, so borrowing/printing and spending $1 trillion (amateurs! the U.S. spent $10 trillion) in 2020/2021 was okay. The rise in energy prices is 2022’s exceptional event, so borrowing/printing and spending another $1 trillion will also be okay. The end of the paragraph is also interesting. The U.S. actually did make “structurally forever” changes to the American welfare state, already the world’s 2nd largest (percent of GDP), the free-forever broadband benefit for those who choose not to work and King Biden’s forgiveness of student loans previously owed to the Crown. According to the Germans, therefore, we are headed for disaster.

Eurocrats seem to think that voters won’t notice the subtle inflation tax caused by these programs and/or future standard tax increases. They’re paying subjects with their own money:

The Belgian government has handed out $100 to every household irrespective of income.

This is a fascinating example of human psychology. Europeans will eventually have to pay for all of the energy that they’re consuming in 2022 and they’ll have to pay the 2022 price. But they’re going to be happier paying starting in 2023 if the government gives them a Three-card Monte game to watch in 2022. And they’ll be happier getting a pay cut via inflation than getting a pay cut in nominal euros.

What’s non-EU-member Norway doing, other than getting insanely rich from the war in Ukraine? The nation’s hydroelectric power is being sold at record prices to the rest of Europe. The oil and gas wells are producing unprecedented gushers of money. Consumers have to pay higher prices for natural gas, but the government steps in and pays, using the record revenues coming in for oil and gas, 90 percent of the amount over a set price. Cruise ships that formerly stopped in St. Petersburg now come to Oslo for two days per sailing, paying enormous port fees and buoying the local tour operators.

“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money,” said Margaret Thatcher. Norway has amended this to “The beauty of socialism is that you never run out of the dinosaurs’ money”.

Here are some of Oslo’s gleaming new waterfront neighborhoods next to the gleaming new Munch Museum:

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Climate change activist buys a stack of transatlantic plane tickets

by philg

“Camila Cabello, Shakira, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and More Sign Letter to Urge Congress to Act on Climate Change” (2021):

Camila Cabello partnered with the National Resources Defense Council Action Fund to help spearhead an initiative addressing climate change. And she’s not alone. Selena Gomez, Demi Lovato, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Shakira joined alongside Leonardo DiCaprio, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish in urging Congress to pass climate change legislation.

Same person (2022):

Tons of CO2 will be emitted to transport two people who have just seen Hamilton in New York to the other side of the Atlantic Ocean to see… Hamilton.

While trying to watch an Artemis rocket launch that was subjected to abortion care we happened to chat with a Gulfstream pilot who talked about working for some Silicon Valley righteous. They wouldn’t allow plastic bottles on their private jets because that was environmentally unsound. But they had no qualms about firing up a 100,000 lb. jet to carry one or two passengers on a leisure trip.

Some detail from Ham4Choice:

We are devastated by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling eliminating the right to an abortion which has been a right since 1973. In response, we are teaming up with organizations providing support, access, and travel expenses to those seeking these services.

We’re stronger when we work together. We can stand up for every person’s right to make decisions about their own body and their own lives. Join HAMILTON & Friends in the fight for reproductive access and reproductive choice today.

Related:

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The stateless players in the U.S. Open tennis tournament

by philg

I hope that everyone will tune in today to watch our fellow Floridian Frances Tiafoe compete in the marked-safe-from-Djokovic U.S. Open tennis tournament. There are a variety of questions raised by Tiafoe’s situation. We are informed by daily reports in the media and on Facebook that Florida is being crushed under the boot of the dictator Ron DeSantis. Books are banned. Pregnant people cannot get on-demand abortion care when they go in for reproductive health care after 15 weeks of being pregnant persons. Science is suppressed. Public schools are not allowed to “instruct” kindergartners in all of the rites of the nation’s established religion. A professional tennis player can live anywhere in the world and, certainly, could live in any of the 49 states that are not tyrannically governed by Ron DeSantis. Why is Tiafoe, with his $6+ million in prize money so far, still a Florida resident?

Another question raised by my casual searches for matches and times using The Google… what country or countries are Medvedev and Khachanov from? Google shows nearly every other player next to a national flag. Are we to understand that, contrary to international law, Medvedev and Khachanov are stateless?

According to Google, Tiafoe beat a stateless player named “Rublev” two days ago:

Readers: Did you also notice this unusual situation?

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How can the death of a 96-year-old dominate the news if we are facing multiple emergencies?

by philg

Here’s the front page of the New York Times right now:

Of course, it is sad that a 96-year-old has died, but this is the newspaper that has told us we’re facing a “climate emergency” (Biden will fix), a public health emergency (COVID-19), a second public health emergency (racism), a public health crisis (racism, again), a global health emergency (monkeypox), a domestic health emergency (monkeypox, again), a non-health emergency (homelessness), a kids’ mental health emergency (give them a computer while their school is closed for 1.5 years and then give them therapy), etc., etc.

If these emergencies are, in fact, emergencies, how is it possible for everyone’s attention to be directed toward the transition from an elderly monarch with purely ceremonial duties to a child of that monarch?

(Separately, what would Meghan Markle need to do in order to obtain the position of queen for herself?)

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Should we start a $36.6 million GoFundMe for Oberlin College?

by philg

From the Daily Mail:

Woke institution Oberlin College has finally paid out the full $36.5 million it owes an Ohio bakery it defamed with false racism claims, one week after the store owners begged college officials to pay up.

The liberal arts college had been ordered to pay after jurors ruled that it had, in fact, defamed Gibson’s Bakery by blasting the institution as racist after a storeowner chased down three black students who stole from the business in November 2016.

With legal fees and interest, the amount rose to over $36.5 million.

Oberlin College had tried to appeal the case to the Ohio Supreme Court, which announced on August 30 it would not take up the issue.

Finally, in a statement on Thursday, the college announced it ‘has initiated payment in full of the $36.59 million judgment in the Gibson’s Bakery case and is awaiting payment information from the plaintiffs.

Former Oberlin dean of students Meredith Raimondo led the woke mob’s attacks against Gibson’s, and even turned up outside the business to screech accusations while toting a bullhorn.

While named as a defendant in the suit, she won’t have to pony up any of the cash.

And despite the disgrace she heaped on her former employer, Raimondo has now landed a cozy job at Oglethorpe Liberal Arts College in Atlanta, and has yet to speak over her role in the costly scandal.

Who will join me in starting a GoFundMe for Oberlin?

Let’s see what’s important to Oberlin right now. From the Mission and Values page:

Related:

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Abortion care perceptions and law in Norway

by philg

Norwegians follow the American news at a high level. When I was there, for example, several mentioned the current administration’s raid of the former President’s home and asked me what I thought of the current U.S. leader seeking to imprison the former U.S. leader. They also had heard about the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, in which a Mississippi law limiting on-demand abortion care to 15 weeks was found not to be in conflict with any Federal law or the U.S. Constitution.

What was interesting is how they perceived the ruling. All of the Norwegians who asked about this topic were under the impression that the Supreme Court had outlawed abortion care throughout the United States. I explained that the the law in Democrat-ruled states provided on-demand abortion at 24 weeks or beyond (e.g., Colorado).”You mean that there is all of this fuss when someone can just drive or fly to another state?” they asked, incredulously.

From reading CNN and other American media, they were under the impression that abortion care in the U.S. was less available than in Norway when, in fact, there are far more reproductive health care options for pregnant people in the U.S. than in Norway. Wikipedia:

Current Norwegian legislation and public health policy provides for abortion on request in the first 12 weeks of gestation, by application up to the 18th week, and thereafter only under special circumstances until the fetus is viable, which is usually presumed at 21 weeks and 6 days.

Abortions after the end of the 12th week up to 18 weeks of pregnancy may be granted, by application, under special circumstances, such as the mother’s health or her social situation; if the fetus is in great danger of severe medical complications; or if the woman has become pregnant while under-age, or after sexual abuse. After the 18th week, the reasons for terminating a pregnancy must be extremely weighty. An abortion will not be granted after viability. Minor girls under 16 years of age need parental consent, although in some circumstances, this may be overridden.

In other words, the Mississippi law (15 weeks) that was recently considered by the Supreme Court was actually less restrictive than Norwegian law (12 weeks), but those who had learned about the events from the media were under the impression that abortion care had been outlawed throughout the U.S.

Since we are informed that abortion care is health care, let’s look at the public health situation in Norway, a Science-following Land of Shutdown to some extent (they didn’t do the 1.5-year school closure that Science imposed on NYC, Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles). Here’s the hand-drying technology at the gleaming modern airport terminal in Oslo:

Should this machine be called “the Coronaspreader” or the “Monkeypoxer”?

How can Norway get away with this kind of public health hazard? If we consider “population-weighted density” (i.e., how dense is the average person’s neighborhood), the lived experience of Norwegians is almost the least crowded in Europe (source):

(And they want to keep it uncrowded. I didn’t find anyone who supported increased low-skill immigration. Norwegians said specifically that they valued open space and freedom to move around without bumping into hundreds of other humans. Even if someone could prove to them that they could get somewhat wealthier by growing the population they would reject the option.)

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Following the Science at Harvard

by philg

“Harvard Grad Student Union Protests Comaroff’s Return to Teaching After Sexual Harassment Findings” (Crimson, September 7, 2022):

Returning from two years of administrative leave for allegations of sexual and professional misconduct, Harvard professor John L. Comaroff stood up to start teaching his first class back on campus Tuesday afternoon.

Then, five graduate students stood up and walked out of the classroom in protest.

Meanwhile, dozens of students congregated in the Science Center Plaza to decry Comaroff’s continued employment at Harvard on the first day of his course, African and African American Studies 190X: “The Anthropology of Law: classical, contemporary, comparative, and critical perspectives.” This week, Comaroff resumed teaching for the first time since University investigations found he violated sexual harassment and professional misconduct policies.

The African-American professor is, according to Wikipedia, now 77 years old (i.e., almost old enough to be President of the United States), a great example of the tenure system in action. The point of this post, however, is the tendency of Harvard students to Follow Science when outdoors. Portions of photos in the article:

That’s life on campus right now!

Report from our former town, a Laptop Class suburb of Boston: as many as 1/4 to 1/3 of the students in a middle school classroom will be wearing masks.

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What’s interesting about the iPhone 14 for photographers?

by philg

Apple released some new products today. Who is excited about them and why?

Aside from being able to talk on the phone, check email, and receive text messages, my main interest in a mobile phone is the camera capability.

“Apple’s iPhone 14 and 14 Pro: Imaging tech examined” (DPReview):

The Pro models gain larger sensors for their main cameras, jumping from 12MP Type 1/1.7 (7.5×5.7mm) to 48MP Type 1/1.28 (9.8×7.3mm) quad-pixel chips. The aperture is reduced from F1.5 to F1.79 but this is brighter in equivalent terms than before: the sensor is nearly twice the size, which more than makes up for the ~0.3EV slower F-number.

The camera will primarily deliver 12MP images by combining quartets of pixels to give the 2.44μm pixels discussed in Apple’s presentation, but can also deliver 48MP ProRaw files, from the individual 1.22μm photosites.

There’s a larger sensor, too for the non-Pro iPhone 14 and 14 Plus. These receive main cameras with comparable specs to those in last year’s iPhone 13 Pro. Specifically this means 12MP Type 1/1.7 (7.6×5.7mm)

My dream is a chunky phone with a Four Thirds System sensor (17x13mm). The iPhone 14 Pro models are thus approximately one third of the way to my dream, as measured by sensor area.

When would this matter? Here’s an iPhone 13 Pro evening photo from one of the new waterfront neighborhoods of Oslo:

If you download this and zoom in you’ll see how fuzzy the faces are. That’s the limit of what clever hardware and software can do to try to patch up the deficiencies caused by using a tiny sensor in low light.

Compare to this image taken at 2 pm (daylight savings time):

Readers: Aside from this sensor size increase, which is simply catch-up to the better Android phones, what is new and interesting from Apple?

Related:

  • “Apple’s iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus Bring Enhanced Cameras” (PetaPixel): “The dual-camera system upgrades and features on the iPhone 14 include a new Main camera with a larger ƒ/1.5 aperture and 1.9 µm pixels, enabling photo and video improvements in all lighting scenarios for better detail and motion freezing, less noise, faster exposure times, and sensor-shift optical image stabilization. … There is a new Action mode for smooth-looking video that adjusts to significant shakes, motion, and vibrations, including when video is being captured in the middle of the action.”
  • speaking of Android, the co-creator Andy Rubin provides a good example of the risks of being married in California; from the Daily Mail: Former Google exec who ‘got $90M severance’ amid sexual coercion probe ‘ran sex ring which lent out women he paid to own for orgies and filmed them,’ claims estranged wife … Andy Rubin is being sued by his estranged wife Rie, who seeks to have the couple’s prenuptial agreement voided in a complaint unsealed on Tuesday … ‘This is a family law dispute involving a wife who regrets her decision to execute a prenuptial agreement,’ said Rubin’s lawyer, adding suit is full of ‘false claims’ … Rie, who is also seeking a divorce from Rubin in family court, is demanding a jury trial and asking that the prenuptial agreement she signed be voided, thus allowing her to collect on the $350 million her estranged husband earned during their marriage.
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