MIT weighs in on the future of cryptocurrency

by philg

The May/June 2022 issue of MIT’s alumni magazine, Technology Review, asks “Is cash over?” and answers the question with an implicit “yes” via the issue title: The Dawn of New Money.

When the enormous brainpower of all of MIT is harnessed, what do we learn?

A new generation of cryptocurrencies is emerging that promises to fix many of Bitcoin’s flaws. Stablecoins, cryptocurrencies whose stable value comes from being backed by reserves of US dollars or other reputable fiat currencies, are proliferating. Stablecoins are billed as reliable, easily accessible digital payment systems that will make both domestic and international payments cheaper and quicker. However, unlike Bitcoin, which is fully decentralized, they require transactions to be validated by the issuing institution—which could be a bank, a corporation, or just an online entity. This means users must trust that institution to validate only legitimate transactions and hold adequate reserves, and regulators currently do not require independent verification of either of those actions. Thus, despite their laudable goal of meeting the demand for better payment systems, stablecoins have raised a raft of concerns.

What happened with crypto while the issue was going through editing, printing, and mailing?

“Stablecoin implosion shows it has ‘no role’ as a form of money, says Bank of International Settlements’ Asia chief” (SCMP):

The recent collapse in the value of stablecoins shows they are ill-suited as a form of money and that their attempt to piggyback on money issued by central banks does not give them the stability their name suggests, according to the Asia-Pacific head of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS).

The implosion of several stablecoins, including TerraUSD which saw its value reduced to almost nothing in May from being the third-largest with a US$18.7 billion market capitalisation at its peak, has revealed the pitfalls of cryptocurrencies, said Siddharth Tiwari, chief representative of the BIS Asian office.

What about the #1 cryptocurrency? Bitcoin was at $38,000 on May 1. It finished out June (this is the May/June issue) at around $19,000 (i.e., half the value was lost during the on-the-newsstand time for the issue celebrating crypto).

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Dumbest question of the year: why are gasoline prices higher than in 2019?

by philg

Here’s the dumbest question of the year, I think…. if we believe Econ 101, prices are generally determined by supply and demand.

Gasoline prices in 2019 averaged $2.60 (eia.gov). Right now it is about $4.50 per gallon (also eia.gov), though in San Diego last month it was $6.999:

The supply of dinosaur blood doesn’t change all that much from year to year. Demand should actually be lower right now compared to 2022 due to (a) some Americans working from home, cowering in place, etc., and (b) airline staff shortages reducing the number of planes flying. Statista says that worldwide oil demand is slightly lower right now than it was in 2019.

If both supply and demand are roughly the same as in 2019, why is the market-clearing price different?

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Vaccine papers checks enable under-age drinking in D.C.

by philg

A young relative was pleased to find that bars in the U Street area of Washington, D.C. are vigilantly checking vaccine papers despite the fact that the government’s order for bars to check has expired. “I had to show photo ID and my vaccine card, which they checked carefully,” he explained, “but they run out of energy before they get to the birthdate field so I was able to get in and order whatever I wanted.”

(He’s fully vaccinated not because of #FaithInFauci, but because he was forced to get stuck with an experimental medicine, designed to prevent death among people who are 60 years older than he is, as a condition of continued enrollment at a university.)

Related:

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Which James Caan movie should we watch to celebrate his life?

by philg

James Caan has died. I’m wondering if we should watch some of his lesser-known movies to celebrate his achievements. From Wikipedia:

In 1977, Caan rated several of his movies out of ten – The Godfather (10), Freebie and the Bean (4), Cinderella Liberty (8), The Gambler (8), Funny Lady (9), Rollerball (8), The Killer Elite (5), Harry and Walter Go to New York (0), Slither (4), A Bridge Too Far (7), and Another Man Another Chance (10).

Should we try to see that last one, a French Western(!)? It is available streaming on Amazon “ScreenPix”.

And, of course, we can’t mention anything related to The Godfather without reminding ourselves “A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns.” (from the book, not the movies?)

A post-1977 film that seems like a good candidate is Misery, about a strong independent woman. For me, the movie is tainted by its association with Stephen King (I’m not a fan of the horror genre to begin with), but it features Kathy Bates and she won an Oscar for her performance.

What other James Caan movies are essential (like marijuana in California and Massachusetts)?

Related:

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What to do with a bunch of wall boxes that are wired for 12V power?

by philg

Our new house has a fancy ADT alarm system that will shout out, if you want it to, when anyone opens a door. Presumably before this went in, the house also was equipped with an elaborate door alarm system for all of the doors leading to the back yard and pool. This would alert people in the house that, for example, a toddler was in danger of falling into the pool.

I’m not sure that the door sensors work anymore and, given that we have the elaborate ADT system, I don’t know why we would ever need these door/pool alarms.

We have four of these cluttering the walls of the house. Does anyone have a brilliant idea for what to do with a network of 1-gang boxes that are fed with 12V? There is no CAT 5 wire to the boxes.

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Frontiers of confidence in child-rearing

by philg

“Climate anxiety is widespread among youth—can they overcome it?” (National Geographic):

Katie Cielinski and Aaron Regunberg are millennials. But they regard themselves as climate change babies. They came of age as the world was first awakening to the catastrophic impact that people were having on the environment.

Before marrying in 2017, the couple wrestled for nearly a decade with the ethical quandary of whether to bring another human onto an already crowded planet. Katie argued for raising a climate ally, somebody who would fight for a healthy planet, but Aaron feared for the future their child would face.

…

Meanwhile, Katie Cielinski and Aaron Regunberg are getting on with their lives. They resolved their uncertainty and their son, Asa, was born in March, 2021. They live in Providence, Rhode Island. Katie, a lawyer, works as a public defender. Aaron, who served four years in the state legislature, graduated from Harvard Law School last month. After a clerkship with a federal judge, he plans to practice environmental law.

“I want there to be good people in this generation to fight for what is right,” says Katie, explaining why they became parents.

“What finally got me was coming to an understanding that the fight for a livable future can’t just be about survival and stability,” Aaron says. “It’s also got to be a fight to keep our world from becoming a poorer, darker, lonelier place. For Katie and me, embracing that meant having this baby and teaching him about all the stuff there is to love in this world and committing our lives to fighting for him and, at some point, alongside him and alongside every other kid facing this uncertain future.”

There is no chance of the teenager rebelling in 2037 by burning some fossil fuel!

With their single child, produced after more than 10 years of dithering, I wonder if these folks will become another data point in the U-shaped fertility curve for the U.S.:

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CDC advice regarding simple cloth and surgical masks still helping SARS-CoV-2 spread

by philg

When coronapanic began, the CDC told Americans that, contrary to all previously established medical knowledge, a simple cloth or surgical mask would substantially prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2. This advice has been walked back, to some extent, in favor of suggesting N95 masks, but the general public does not seem to have gotten the more recent memo.

On a June trip to San Diego, I noticed a fair number of people who apparently sought to protect themselves and others from COVID-19. Instead of staying home, which would have been the obvious choice given pre-2020 Science, they were on 100-percent-crammed airline flights, in museums, etc.

Here is an example from the Chick-fil-A line in Atlanta:

An example on the deck of the USS Midway in San Diego (awesome museum, but staying home is safer):

Despite half of the U.S. taking the position that avoiding COVID-19 is a critical human activity and that the other half of the nation is morally deficient for not sharing their concern, the Denver airport was crammed to capacity on a Wednesday at noon (imagine Friday afternoon before a holiday weekend!). A 26-minute wait for the non-elite:

Colorado supported Joe Biden, but it seems that the typical local won’t wear a mask while engaging in a religious ritual at the Denver airport’s 2SLGBTQQIA+ monolith (imagine the joy if Kubrick’s 2001 were updated with this monolith!):

On a related note, the Delta flight attendant offered me an alcohol wipe during boarding. I replied, “thank you, but my personal hygiene problems are far too severe to be addressed by one wipe.”

Related:

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Our first July 4th in Florida

by philg

Fireworks are illegal in Maskachusetts while marijuana is “essential” and available even when schools are shut down due to plague. In Florida, however, marijuana is illegal and fireworks are sufficiently essential that Costco and Publix carry kits large enough to blow up your house:

In Maskachusetts, fetuses are sufficiently tough that on-demand abortion care is available up until 24 weeks and, after that, if a single doctor thinks abortion care makes sense (paging Dr. Gosnell). Babies, on the other hand, are too tender to be exposed to the sight and sounds of fireworks and children are too precious to handle fireworks. In our MacArthur Foundation-planned community, fetuses are considered tender and therefore abortion care is available only up to 15 weeks gestation (state law). Infants are brought in baskets to the biggest and loudest fireworks shows. Little kids run around with sparklers. 10-year-olds wield roman candles. Unsupervised teenagers run full-scale shows on neighborhood common areas.

At least according to one estimate, however, Massachusetts actually has more fireworks injuries per capita than Florida. How is that possible, given that fireworks are illegal in Massachusetts? They’re easy to buy in New Hampshire.

Where to see professional fireworks in South Florida? Our own neighborhood has a show next to the Major League Baseball spring training stadium. There’s a bigger/better one at the Flagler Museum that happens over the Intracoastal and can be viewed by the Proles from West Palm. People who join as Sustaining members ($250) can watch from the museum itself. (Of course, the theme parks in Orlando have fireworks every night!)

Readers: Where did you see fireworks tonight and how were they?

Related:

(Maybe she will arrange with Joe Biden to get Dr. Kermit Gosnell, the expert on providing bodily autonomy, pardoned and then appointed to an expanded Supreme Court?)

There was a recent “coup”:

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Book recommendation: All the Flowers of the Mountain

by philg

Today we celebrate the traitorous rebellion of slaveowners and land-stealers against the legitimate authority of the British government.

Today our family also celebrates a cousin’s wife’s novel, five years in the works, being released. I managed to read the first 60 pages via a preprint and can vouch for it being well-crafted. At the risk of sounding too much like an Oprah copycat, it contains richly imagined characters. The chapters also have an interesting back-and-forth sequence that does not feel like a gimmick. At least in the first 60 pages there are no 2SLGBTQQIA+ characters of color so I don’t expect this book to be featured in the New York Times. I was engaged, despite the romance angle. My only criticism so far is that the main male character seems unrealistically emotional. I’m not sure that the author fully appreciates the “one mood all the time” principle of cisgender masculinity.

The book is All the Flowers of the Mountain. My Kindle copy arrives today and I’m going to be anxious to see how it turns out. A good beach or lake vacation read, certainly!

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Adults versus Kids; a Science-based response to COVID-19 in Maskachusetts

by philg

Recent emails from the Handel+Haydn Society in Boston… Adults:

Kids:

From the linked-to page:

All participants in H+H Youth Choruses activities must be fully vaccinated for Covid-19, and we provide further that H+H agrees to comply with the then-applicable U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) guidance regarding mandatory employer vaccination programs. Masks are required for all indoor activities at all times. 

Recall that, like California, Massachusetts is a state that decided marijuana shops for adults were “essential” and had to remain open while public schools were closed for 1.5 years and forcibly masked for at least 1 additional school year (unclear what will happen in the Boston Public Schools for 2022-2023).

Related:

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