Where is the population-wide evidence that COVID vaccines reduce COVID-tagged death rates?

by philg

Continuing to explore a topic raised in February (Did vaccines or any other intervention slow down COVID?)…

Cochrane has shown that the correlation between forced masking and coronaplague is minimal (i.e., general public masking does not reduce the spread of a respiratory virus, just as Science, including the WHO, said for 100 years prior to June 2020). We’ve had a good natural experiment on COVID-19 vaccines in that countries vary dramatically in their vaccination rate. Where is the study that shows, from these data, that population-wide COVID-19 vaccination, as aggressively promoted by the CDC (down to age 6 months!), reduces COVID-tagged death rate?

The New York Times offers a map and table of countries and their “fully vaccinated” rate. We can see that Chile is 93% fully vaccinated and Spain is virtuously at 87%. Compare to just 34% in Ukraine and 30% in Nigeria.

The correct approach to an analysis would almost certainly include adjusting by share of population over whatever we can agree is the COVID-vulnerable age (CDC says 6 months; European public health officials say 50 (age of vaccine eligibility); previous attempts have used 65; median age of a COVID death is about 80). But what if we do a rough cut by looking at the raw (not age-adjusted) COVID-tagged death rates?

CountryVaccination RateCovid-tagged deaths/million
Chile93%3,080
Spain87%2,301
Switzerland70%1,603
Turkey64%1,175
Ukraine34%2,565
Nigeria30%15(!)

Is it obvious from the above that #VaccinesSave?

(We could also look at excess deaths by country during three years of coronapanic. Vaccinated Chile is at 18%; Spain at 11%; packed-with-filthy-unvaccinated-disgusting-people Switzerland at 8% (no data for Turkey, Ukraine, and Nigeria).)

Why does this matter? Let’s look at a post-Cochrane tweet from a person who might be described as a moderate believer in public health interventions. With her MD and MPH, certainly, she cannot just throw in the towel on the idea that humans, at least with sufficient credentials, can be masters of their own destiny. In light of the Cochrane review, she says that we will master our destiny with vaccines and Paxlovid:

But if the Followers of Science fooled themselves for 3 years on masks, why can’t the Followers of Science also be wrong about the effectiveness of vaccines and Paxlovid? Is it worth looking at age-adjusted country-to-country comparisons to make sure that we aren’t wasting a lot of time, energy, and money that could be better spent on, e.g., fighting obesity (first step under Philip’s dictatorship: no more Buy 2 Get 3 candy sales at CVS!)?

Fighting COVID with ineffective tools is not cost-free because humans have limited time, energy, and money. Closing schools, for example, will ultimately cost more lives than SARS-CoV-2 infection because people with less education live statistically shorter lives. Dollars printed to pay people to sit at home for 2 years are dollars that can’t be used to pay people to lose weight (imagine what you could do for public health if you gave Americans $600/week on condition that they lose 1 lb. per week! (maybe people would game the system by bulking up in the week prior to the first weigh-in?)).

(Speaking of Paxlovid, my friends in California seem to be Pfizer’s best customers. They said that they would never get COVID because (a) they had 4 or 5 Pfizer shots, (b) they mostly stayed home for 2+ years, and (c) they wore their N95 masks on the rare occasions when they left home. Then they got COVID (once or twice) and, despite being reasonably young (60ish) and not obese or chronically sick, they would guzzle Paxlovid within hours of an at-home test yielding the sacred magenta line. (How did they get it so fast when the rest of us have to wait 2 months to see a primary care doc? Telehealth!))

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Life lessons from the Queen of Versailles

by philg

Extremely loyal blog readers may recall that I wrote about The Queen of Versailles in 2013:

the protagonist talks about her days as an engineer at IBM. One day she asked her manager why he had a clock counting down. The manager said that it was showing him the days, hours, minutes, and seconds until he could retire. Why did he care? “Because that is the moment when I can start living,” was what the guy said. As a result of this conversation, the Queen of Versailles quit her engineering job and took up fashion modeling in Manhattan. Then she devoted herself to being the wife of a rich guy and mother to seven children.

The funniest line in the movie was Jackie Siegel talking about the setbacks during the Collapse of 2008 forcing the family to travel to Upstate New York via commercial airline. One of the younger kids, accustomed to the Gulfstream life, asked “Mommy, what are all of these people doing on our plane?”

Jackie Siegel is back, finishing Versailles, her huge Orlando house, in front of an TV audience (Queen of Versailles Reigns Again; streaming on HBO). (In the 2012 documentary, I remember she and her husband saying that the inspiration for the house was the Paris casino in Vegas and not Louis XIV’s bungalow in Frogland, but in this new TV series they talk about the French original as the inspiration.)

The saddest event between the two documentaries is that one of the Siegels’ daughters was addicted to Xanax and was entrusted to rehab. She formed an alliance with a fellow patient, ultimately pronounced cured by the psychologists. As soon as they were out of rehab, he introduced her to heroin. She was dead of a methadone overdose at age 18 (New York Post):

Victoria, who was a big part of the documentary, had gone to rehab to deal with a Xanax addiction. It was there she met her 26-year-old boyfriend.

“The day she got out, she tried her first heroin … a month later she was dead,” Jackie said. The boyfriend later died of a drug overdose as well.

(About 20 years ago, a friend paid handsomely for his childhood best friend to go to the Betty Ford Clinic for treatment of alcoholism. At Betty Ford, he met Hollywood heroin addicts and, upon being cured and released, began to party with them. He overdosed and died.)

The HBO show is a mixture of lifestyle and construction challenge, but I think it is worth watching to see what happens when half of the fine craftspeople of Florida come together in one place. I learned about the High Point Market, a furniture trade show that takes up 10 million square feet. Also, that the decorator chose red as a pool table felt, not tournament blue. Sometimes style is more important than function!

Sadly, the house was built right next to a big lake and not too many feet above the lake. It’s not within a FEMA flood zone, but the lake itself and shores are flagged as “Zone AE” with a 1 percent annual flood risk. Hurricane Ian was purportedly a 500-year flood event and Versailles flooded (TMZ).

Fired Googlers: How about a system that returns the FEMA flood zone, not just a map, in response to an address? ChatGPT is useless:

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Do the Jews who support open borders for the U.S. also support open borders for Israel?

by philg

Here’s a typical perspective from an American Jewish Democrat:

The guy who gets a paycheck from the Anti-Defamation League wants to fill the United States and other countries “around the world” with any person on Planet Earth who is capable of spinning an asylum yarn, e.g., “I was afraid of my spouse” or “there was a criminal gang in my neighborhood” or “I identify as 2SLGBTQQIA+ and my native country does not support Rainbow Flagism.”

But how is this perspective consistent with the State of Israel continuing as a Jewish state? There are 5.3 million Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza. All of them could make credible asylum claims, e.g., “I am 2SLGBTQQIA+ and Wikipedia says that therefore my situation is ‘precarious’.” (“Gaza, however, still follows the British Mandate Criminal Code Ordinance, No.74 of 1936, which outlaws same-sex acts between men, with the current punishment being up to 10 years in prison.”) Or “I am fearful that the Israeli military will blow up my apartment building in case they suspect that Hamas is using it for offensive purposes.”

Arabs are already 20 percent of Israelis. After the 5 million Palestinians settle in Israel as asylees, plus additional asylum-seekers from other Muslim countries as necessary, the Muslim population will outnumber the Jewish population and Muslim Israelis can vote to establish an Islamic government within Israel, either expelling the Jews or keeping them around as tax-paying Dhimmi.

There must be mental gymnastics that I am missing that enable these migrant-supporting Jews to, without being obvious hypocrites, oppose the migration of Muslims, including Palestinians, into Israel. But I can’t figure out what it would be! If a person says that any Muslim is entitled to cross the U.S. border and apply for asylum, how can he/she/ze/they be opposed to a Muslim crossing the Israeli border and applying for asylum?

In case the above tweet is memory-holed, a screen shot is below. Separately, note that the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society is mentioned. Anger regarding this taxpayer-supported enterprise was cited by Gregory Bowers as his motivation for shooting Jews at a Pittsburgh synagogue in 2018 (“HIAS likes to bring invaders in that kill our people. I can’t sit by and watch my people get slaughtered. Screw your optics, I’m going in.”). This was predicted years earlier by a friend who is an Orthodox Jew (working class white males in the U.S. becoming Jew-haters as a consequence of HIAS and other prominent Jewish-led efforts to increase low-skill migration into the U.S.).

Related:

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Elite nation-building thought process

by philg

One reason the New York Times subscription is worth it is for the window into the thought processes of the elites. “Over 75,000 Job Openings in Iowa Alone. Millions of Refugees Seeking Work. Make the Connection.” (NYT, 2/2/2023) is a great example. Excerpts:

Across the globe, 32.5 million refugees are seeking safety, many of them adults in search of work. At the same time, severe labor shortages in the United States and many other high-income countries have left businesses clamoring for workers.

The United States can help address both problems (and more) through bipartisan immigration reform — and states can be part of new solutions with innovative ideas that could act as the foundation for immigration federalism.

Creating a pathway for individuals to live and work in Iowa and other states would ease the burden on America’s asylum system.

One of the pillars of modern elite thinking is that, instead of being organized by cultural affinity, a cohesive human society can be built by assembling people who did not like wherever it was that they were previously. That’s the basis of open borders for asylum-seekers. Native-born American taxpayers will fund apartments (in a building owned by a member of the elite!) for (1) person who says that he/she/ze/they was at risk of being killed by a gang in El Salvador and speaks only Spanish, (2) someone who says that he/she/ze/they was a domestic violence victim in Haiti and speaks only Creole, (3) a migrant who says that he/she/ze/they was a victim in Syria and speaks only Arabic, and (4) a former police officer from Somalia (based on occupation, automatically eligible for asylum?) who speaks only Somali. Though they share no common language, these four folks can bond over… something. Thus, a thriving neighborhood is born. (Maybe they bond over their shared hatred for life in the respective countries of their birth?)

What’s new from the New York Times is the suggestion that these migrants get allocated by a central bureaucracy of elites to states in which there are (elite-owned) businesses whose offered wages are insufficient to attract native-born workers and existing immigrants. So not only will an asylum-seeker be in a country that he/she/ze/they may not have wanted to live in, but the asylum-seeker will be in a state that he/she/ze/they did not want to live in. (Remember that asylum-seekers are “fleeing” from somewhere. They’re involuntarily in the U.S. because this is the only place that they can be safe. It may be that the asylum-seeker dislikes and disagrees with everything about American culture and values, but the alternative was death.)

From Amana, Iowa: 75 years of communal living, a couple of photos of what awaits welfare-dependent migrants from a conservative Islamic society:

(Why will they be welfare-dependent? If they’re in a low-skill low-wage job, especially if they have children, even working 40 hours per week they will be eligible for means-tested programs such as public housing, Medicaid, food stamps (SNAP/EBT), and Obamaphone.)

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What’s new with Sam Bankman-Fried?

by philg

It’s been two months since Sam Bankman-Fried returned to the U.S. (BBC). How is my prediction that Joe Biden will appoint him as U.S. Treasury Secretary and that he will be confirmed by Senate Democrats looking? Any other news from this cryptocurrency trailblazer?

Most of the $121 million in real estate that Mr. Bankman-Fried and his Stanford professor parents owned is within gated communities, according to my friends in Nassau, but they did drive me, in January, to see the police station and courthouse:

The locals say that the prison where our future Treasury Secretary was held is not worth the 20-minute drive for a photo. “All that you can see is a wall with a sign.”

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A Maskachusetts Immigration Success Story

by philg

A story from our former suburb of Boston… (not quoting it because it would be tough to read in italics)

Sally is the mother of four kids – lives in Chelsea.
She is beautiful and speaks well but cannot read and has a 2nd grade education.
Her husband, small gentleman with a major speech issues, hit her over the head with a hammer when her boyfriend came over to the house. The father went to jail.
There was a lot of stress in the house. Both parents during the pandemic lost one of two jobs. The father was experiencing major mental health issues. The kids were “learning at home” The kids at the time where 3, 8, 10 and 11…..learning? How? Both parents were working their one job and desperately trying to find a second job.
The father worked for 18 years at Bed Bath and Beyond making $15.50 an hour. The mother continues to work at Whole Foods making $17 an hour.
Because the father is in jail the mother is responsible for all the bills which she cannot handle. Feb 1 she was evicted and went to stay in a hotel because all shelters were filled. She and the kids will stay there until housing becomes available- maybe 2 years? There is nowhere to cook or do laundry.
The father is in jail and has been for three years without bail or a trial.
Just another day at work.
What is [South Sudanese Enrichment for Families]’s response?
We are writing letters to the fathers’ public defender to try to get him a trial and bail in March. We have facilitated the father instead of the Nashua Street Jail to be at the Recovery Center in Worcester. He gets therapy and tutoring.
A volunteer is working with the mother to try to have some stability in their life. Many Sudanese are helping getting the kids to school etc.
We have another woman with two kids going into a shelter in March and we have one child taken away from her mother. Very very sad. Two Sudanese families are going to take the child in.
….
We have 8 families that are in our Financial Fitness Program where we assess where they are financially and what they need to do to meet their financial goals. There is a waiting list.
We are getting there ……all with your help. Thank you…the need is huge.

(Although my heart is warmed by the above, I’m confused by the story. The mom of 4 had a boyfriend (perfect adaption of a migrant to the American lifestyle, despite having only a 2nd grade education!) and the father went to jail. But also the story implies that the father was at home during the coronapanic lockdowns in Maskachusetts. Yet he has been “in jail” for three years and the lockdown began three years ago. Maybe the boyfriend is the new “father” who has the Bed Bath & Beyond job and was at home during the lockdowns and pretend-learn-from-home-scheme? Also, why do the nonprofit say-gooders (maybe even do-gooders?) want to get the hammer-wielding father out of jail? So that he can attack the mom with a hammer again? So that he can copy the undocumented immigrant David DePape and attack Paul Pelosi? Isn’t jail the safest place for anyone who cannot be trusted with a hammer?)

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Have you noticed a dramatic reduction in mask-wearing now that Science is back to 2019?

by philg

It’s been three weeks since the publication of “Do physical measures such as hand-washing or wearing masks stop or slow down the spread of respiratory viruses?” (Cochrane):

We identified 78 relevant studies. They took place in low-, middle-, and high-income countries worldwide: in hospitals, schools, homes, offices, childcare centres, and communities during non-epidemic influenza periods, the global H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009, epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016, and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We identified five ongoing, unpublished studies; two of them evaluate masks in COVID-19.

Compared with wearing no mask in the community studies only, wearing a mask may make little to no difference in how many people caught a flu-like illness/COVID-like illness (9 studies; 276,917 people); and probably makes little or no difference in how many people have flu/COVID confirmed by a laboratory test (6 studies; 13,919 people).

Compared with wearing medical or surgical masks, wearing N95/P2 respirators probably makes little to no difference in how many people have confirmed flu (5 studies; 8407 people); and may make little to no difference in how many people catch a flu-like illness (5 studies; 8407 people), or respiratory illness (3 studies; 7799 people).

In other words, we’re back to Science v2019: the only way to avoid infection is to stay home, not to go into a theme park during Christmas vacation wearing a cloth mask (Faucism), a surgical mask, or an N95 mask (True Science).

The masked faithful who’ve continued with their rituals after the Covidcrats rescinded their orders requiring masks (illegal in Florida!) say that they’re Following the Science. So we might expect a dramatic change to the slope of the de-masking curve now that this utterly reliable organization has come down with its verdict.

What have you seen out there in the wild? It’s tough for me to observe any changes here in Florida due to the small sample size (a handful of old/sick-looking people are sometimes observed in masks). I have queried mask believers in Massachusetts and California and they say that they are not going to change their behavior in response to the Cochrane article. Part of their justification is that they believe themselves to be vastly superior to the average person, including the health care workers in some of the studies underneath the Cochrane analysis, in competence, diligence, and consistency. Masks will fail for the incompetent rabble, but not for them.

Some excerpts from a Maskachusetts mask-believer:

Stupid people will do stupid things. Incompetent people will muddy the signals for otherwise potentially beneficial countermeasures. And your governor is still a douchebag, even if it is true that the Black History AP course [sic; the correct title is “AP African American STUDIES” (not “history”)] was politically motivated. Also, plain water and hand rubbing was shown by the CDC to be effective in getting virus particles off your hands.

(Hatred of Ron DeSantis is “Carthago delenda est!” for Democrats? I never mentioned Ron D when asking him how the Cochrane study would affect his behavior.)

From my Boston/DCA flight in January:

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Book review: River of the Gods (searching for the source of the Nile)

by philg

Having loved River of Doubt, I listened to River of the Gods: Genius, Courage, and Betrayal in the Search for the Source of the Nile as an audiobook. As with River of Doubt, the story holds the listener’s interest so I recommend it in audio format.

The description from the publisher is presumably exciting for today’s customers:

Yet there was a third man on both expeditions, his name obscured by imperial annals, whose exploits were even more extraordinary. This was Sidi Mubarak Bombay, who was enslaved and shipped from his home village in East Africa to India. When the man who purchased him died, he made his way into the local Sultan’s army, and eventually traveled back to Africa, where he used his resourcefulness, linguistic prowess and raw courage to forge a living as a guide. Without Bombay and men like him, who led, carried, and protected the expedition, neither Englishman would have come close to the headwaters of the Nile, or perhaps even survived.

The book does not deliver on this promise. Bombay is not described as doing anything remarkable other than being a loyal assistant to Richard Burton and Speke. Burton remains the most interesting and impressive character in the drama and it is astonishing what he and Speke were willing to endure to pick up a scrap of knowledge and obtain some fame. They spent most of their time on the expedition suffering from tropical diseases far worse than Covid.

The discovery part of the discovery proves to be somewhat underwhelming. The Black and Arab merchants of East Africa already knew about the rift lakes, including Lake Victoria. As Burton and Speke were “exploring” they were able to exchange letters with Europeans on the coast. They would simply send a letter with a slave or goods caravan and wait for a reply to arrive with a caravan bringing imports from the coast. This is not the exploration of an Amundsen or Shackleton in Antarctica!

Compared to the Blacks and Arabs who lived full time in the region, what was different about Burton and Speke was that they cared about the hydrology of the region, not just making some money by trading goods and/or slaves. The Arab merchants knew about Lake Victoria, for example, but were not curious regarding where the water ultimately ended up. They wanted to sell goods from the coast on the shores and perhaps bring back some slaves. The exploration challenge in River of Doubt was much tougher.

Here are a few of my own snapshots from Zanzibar (2007):

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Winter in Death Valley (versus heat tourism)

by philg

One thing that we learned during our December trip to Death Valley was that nobody else comes to Death Valley in December. “I would have thought that this would be the most popular time of year,” I said to a National Park Service manager, “given that one can hike around in comfortable temperatures and barely have to carry water.” He responded that summer was actually the busiest: “We get a lot of Americans driving through and checking us off their bucket list, but also Europeans who come here for heat tourism.” Heat tourism? “They don’t have deserts or extreme heat in Europe so they come here to experience 120 or 130 degrees.”

We did the Artists Drive loop, Natural Bridge trail, and Badwater lowest point from about 9:30 am to 12:30 pm.

After lunch, it was time for Golden Canyon Trail.

The next day we drove to Stovepipe Wells, a desolate and crummy place to stay compared to Furnace Creek, stopping first at the Mesquite Flat Sand Dunes:

After breakfast (masked restaurant staff and unmasked customers), we hit Mosaic Canyon.

We had lunch at the Ranch at Death Valley steak house. Once again, the servers were masked while customers were not. Also, curiously for California, the establishment seemed to be celebrating gun violence.

I’m not surprised by the passion for masks given that we were in California, but I am surprised that people who are sufficiently concerned about Covid to wear a mask didn’t take the opportunity, at some point during the past three years, to change careers into a job that doesn’t involve contact with hundreds of infested-by-viruses humans every day.

The Inn at Death Valley has nicer public areas, but the Ranch at Death Valley has some brand new standalone cottages.

After some time at the pool we went to Zabriskie Point for sunset, along with every other tourist.

Some fun with Apple’s panorama software:

We ate most of our meals at the Inn at Death Valley, just up the hill from the golf course/Ranch. Food and service seemed to be better.

After two days and three nights, it was time to head back through Pahrump to Las Vegas. We did not stop at Sheri’s Ranch for lunch with Hunter Biden, however, because we wanted to visit the Mob Museum before checking into the Cosmopolitan and walking to Din Tai Fung for dinner before Cirque du Soleil’s Mad Apple. The show was funny in addition to being awe-inspiring. Din Tai Fung made me weep for the paucity of good Chinese food in South Florida. What must we promise to the Taiwanese to get a branch here in Jupiter?

Before we left Death Valley, though, we stopped at Zabriskie Point for some pictures in the morning light.

One more panorama:

It was a great trip and one of the few times in recent memory that I was in a U.S. National Park and not jammed into a Manhattan-style crowd.

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Why do we have trouble maintaining infrastructure if we’re richer than ever? (Death Valley examples)

by philg

We are regularly informed by politicians and their media allies that the United States is the best and richest country in the world and that Americans have never been richer. And nobody is richer in the U.S. than the federal government, which can and does literally print money (soon to mint a $1 trillion coin because the best way to address a financial problem is never to work harder or spend less?). Here are photos from Death Valley National Park, owned by the federal government, from December 2022:

What was built as a wheelchair-accessible path will no longer work for our disabled brothers, sisters, and binary-resisters because the pavement is so deteriorated. How about at the local airport? A core mission of the federal government is making sure that U.S. airports are functional and this one is actually owned by the Feds.

The runway at Furnace Creek Airport, L06, is described as being “In Failed Condition”. The aspiration for the airport, lowest in North America at 210 feet below sea level, is greatly reduced from 1954, when it had a jet-capable 5,500′ runway. Airnav says “UP TO 4 INCH SALT HEAVE ARND RWY CRACKS. COULD DMG ACFT WITH WHEEL FAIRINGS OR CAUSE A POTENTIAL TO BLOW OUT A TIRE.” The National Park Service, whose job it might be to keep this airport in decent condition, says “poor condition; numerous cracks, bumps, ruts, and areas of crumbling asphalt over the entire length of the runway. Consider treating like a gravel/unpaved surface, and use caution at takeoff and landing.”

Pilots in California and Nevada used to meet at this airport to socialize and play a round of golf. Now it is useless except to helicopters and maybe a few taildraggers with tundra tires.

How can we square the myth (we’re richer, smarter, and better than ever) with these facts on the ground of infrastructure that we were once rich enough to create but are no longer rich enough to maintain?

The news is not all bad if you’re a member of the laptop class in Death Valley. Not only did the working class have to pay $7,500 toward your electric car (plus any wealth transfers ordered by a state), but the working class also has to buy you free electricity in Death Valley at public chargers (we plugged in our rented BMW hybrid). The working class member’s gas-powered dinosaur must be filled at $5/gallon within the park:

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