Year 3 of the COVID emergency continues

“WHO says Covid still a global public health emergency even as deaths fall to lowest level in two years” (CNBC):

“Far from being the time to drop our guard, this is the moment to work even harder to save lives,” Tedros said during a press briefing in Geneva. “Specifically, this means investing so that Covid-19 tools are equitably distributed, and we simultaneously strengthen health systems.”

Houssin said the committee is working on criteria, including epidemiological data and the level of international assistance to contain the virus, to determine when the WHO can declare that the global health emergency is over.

“Masks Stay On: C.D.C. Keeps the Mandate on Planes” (NYT):

Despite pressure from airlines and industry groups, the Biden administration extended the requirement to wear masks while traveling on public transportation through May 3.

Dr. Ashish K. Jha, the new White House Covid response coordinator, said in an interview that the additional time will allow the C.D.C. to assess whether BA.2, a subvariant of the coronavirus, is going to become a “ripple or a wave” in the United States. The C.D.C. will use that information to determine whether the mandate should be extended further, he said.

We’re still in a COVID emergency, which is why the rabble need to wear some sort of mask on buses, subways, and commercial airliners (the elites are unmasked in their private cars and private jets, of course!), but COVID is not a sufficiently serious risk to justify trying to keep COVID-infected migrants out (“CDC orders Title 42 to wind down, saying expulsions of migrants are no longer needed” (CBS, April 1)).

It’s a worldwide and nationwide emergency, but every American has the option to move to a state that matches his/her/zir/their desired level of panic. One useful tool is the WalletHub ranking of states by COVID-19 restrictions (the Florida Free State is #2 at the free end of the spectrum). A newly released multi-state comparison from the National Bureau of Economic Research is co-authored by Casey Mulligan (see Book Review: The Redistribution Recession). From “A Final Report Card on the States’ Response to COVID-19”:

For those who seek maximum panic and securely locked-down K-12ers, the best places to live are California, Maryland, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, and D.C. (And, in fact, some friends who were supporters of lockdowns, masks, Joe Biden, etc. recently moved to Hawaii from a state that had only a middling level of passion for lockdowns and school closures.)

As the authors point out (above), school closures will surely kill a lot of Americans in the long run; they estimate that more life-years will be lost just from this than from COVID-19. But did school closures save lives in the short run? The authors look at COVID-tagged deaths per 100,000 population and adjust for age and the prevalence of obesity and diabetes. Hawaii is ranked #1 (lowest rate), but D.C. is ranked #48 despite similar enthusiasm for school closure. (schools-open Florida is mid-pack for death rate at #22.) On the “excess deaths” guestimation, California and Florida are right next to each other despite it being illegal to keep a school open in California and it being illegal to keep a school closed in Florida.

The authors are economists so they get into a lot of GDP data and operate from the assumption that richer is better than poorer. I personally disagree with this approach as I’ve noted before. Since Americans say that they don’t care how impoverished they become so long as they can preserve at least one human life, the relevant standard for looking at lockdown is life-years, adding up those saved from COVID-19 and subtracting those lost due to the side-effects of lockdown. Wealth (GDP) factors into this only to the extent that wealth is correlated with health and longevity.

The NBER paper concludes by noting that four of the states that they ranked last in a composite score (in-person school percentage, economic performance, and minimizing deaths) are the ones that have had the highest per-capita rates of out-migration. These are DC, NY, IL, and CA.

What about our family’s August 2021 move? Florida gets an A rating and a #6 rank in the composite score. Maskachusetts is lumped in with the D students and has a #41 rank. (If you like skiing, Utah is ranked #1!)

Related:

Full post, including comments

Science: travelers from zero-COVID China need medical testing, but undocumented migrants do not

Here’s the Science question of the day…

To protect the United States, which currently has 30,000 COVID “cases” per day and 600 COVID-tagged deaths per day., from COVID, our Science-following CDC requires that someone arriving with a passport from zero-COVID China undergo medical testing for COVID prior to travel. If he/she/ze/they is not a U.S. citizen, he/she/ze/they is required to also require proof of the Sacrament of Fauci (vaccination). (See CDC order of November 8, 2021.)

The Scientists at the Science-oriented CDC, on the other hand, have Scientifically determined that a migrant who says “I am under 18” can cross the border and stay permanently in the U.S. without either a COVID test or a COVID vaccine. The Science changed after a federal judge said that the Biden administration could not exempt people who said that they were minors from the Science. See “Biden administration says it will not expel migrant children following court order” (CBS):

The Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which first authorized the migrant expulsions in March 2020, terminated the government’s ability to expel children who enter U.S. border custody without their parents. U.S. border officials can still use the policy, known as Title 42, to expel single adult migrants and families traveling with children to Mexico or their home countries.

Last week, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Pittman said the administration could no longer exempt unaccompanied minors from Title 42, arguing that Texas, which challenged the exemption, was financially harmed by the placement of migrant children in the state due to medical and schooling costs.

In a notice Friday, CDC officials said they recognized the “unique vulnerabilities” of unaccompanied minors.

“In the current termination, CDC addresses the court’s concerns and has determined, after considering current public health conditions and recent developments, that expulsion of unaccompanied noncitizen children is not warranted to protect the public health,” the agency said.

In a separate 21-page order justifying the decision to end Title 42 for unaccompanied children, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky cited the recent nationwide decrease in COVID-19 cases, as well as increased vaccination rates in the U.S. and in the home countries of migrants who journey to the southern border.

Science dictates that the border will be completely open to all unvaccinated and untested migrants as of May (Politico), even those who don’t say “I am under 18,” thus adding approximately 1 million additional residents to the U.S. annually (2 million were expelled during the last two years, according to Politico). So don’t say “no” if you’re offered the opportunity to invest in a crony capitalist “affordable housing” scheme!

(See “The affordable majority: Three misconceptions about investment in affordable housing”:

… affordable housing targets the masses and serves the primary rental cohort in the United States, with about 72 percent of renters falling in the affordable-housing category. … Compared with market-rate apartments, affordable and workforce housing are, in a sense, recession-proof and provide downside protection to investors. … Because of this rising demand and diminishing supply, affordable-housing units experience little to no turnover and are almost always fully-occupied, consistently maintaining occupancy rates of about 98 percent. This differs significantly from market-rate apartments, which average about a 50 percent turnover rate.

Overall, “affordable” does not necessarily mean smaller returns. Investor portfolios in the affordable-housing sector tend to have stronger returns on investment, increased and stabilized cash flows, and provide investors with downside protection.

)

Circling back to the immigration policy that Science (via the CDC) has given the United States, how is it consistent with the documented traveler testing requirement policy that Science (via the CDC) has given the United States? How is a U.S. citizen returning from a zero-COVID country a higher COVID risk, thus requiring pre-departure testing, than an undocumented migrant who has traveled overland through multiple COVID-plagued countries?

Only loosely related, a hotel in China, November 2019, that already had the tables separated for COVID prevention…

(The double boiled pig’s lung soup was about $200 at the exchange rate of late 2019.)

Related:

Full post, including comments

CDC gives us a new canonical example of chutzpah?

The standard example of chutzpah has been “that quality enshrined in a man who, having killed his mother and father, throws himself on the mercy of the court because he is an orphan.”

I wonder if we can replace this with one from a U.S. government agency. “CDC Reports Warn of Teen ‘Mental Health Crisis’ During Pandemic” (MedPage Today, 3/31/2022):

In a nationwide survey, high school students reported experiencing poor mental health and life disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, CDC researchers said.

Among a nationally representative sample of high school students in the U.S., 37% said that they experienced poor mental health, and 44% reported persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness, reported Sherry Everett Jones, PhD, of the CDC, and colleagues.

Furthermore, about 20% of respondents said they seriously considered attempting suicide, and 9% had attempted suicide during the 12 months before the survey, they noted in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

“Our data make it clear that young people experienced significant disruptions during the pandemic, and are experiencing a mental health crisis,” said co-author Kathleen Ethier, PhD, of the CDC, during a conference call with the media. “It is clear right now that young people need all the support we can give them.”

In other words, the agency that enabled state and local school systems to shut down for more than a year (while still ladling out taxpayer-funded salaries at 100%!) under the guise of following Science now says that people should look to them for advice on how to restore the mental health of kids whose schools were thus closed.

Related:

Full post, including comments

Support for the dedicated COVID-19 treatment center idea

Exactly two years ago (April 2, 2020), I asked If we could build renal dialysis capacity, why not COVID-19 treatment centers?

On the one hand, the U.S. health care system is kind of lame. It consumes a ton of money. New York State spends $88 billion per year on its Department of Health, $4,400/year for every resident, mostly just for people on welfare in New York; Mexico spends about $1,100/year across all citizens, including those with jobs. The U.S. health care system delivers feeble results. Life expectancy in Mexico is 77 versus 78 in the U.S. Despite this prodigious spending, New York has completely failed to protect its residents from something that isn’t truly new.

On the other hand, the U.S. managed to build enough renal dialysis capacity to keep 468,000 Americans with failed kidneys alive. This is a complex procedure that requires expensive machines, and one that did not exist on a commercial basis until the 1960s.

Should this success story give us some hope that the U.S. will, in fact, be able to deal with the surge of demand for ventilation and life support created by the evil non-Chinese coronavirus?

Of course, one issue is that we had decades to build up all of this renal dialysis capability while we have only about one more month to build COVID-19 treatment capacity. But once we have built it, can we sail through the inevitable next wave or two of COVID-19?

The idea turned out to have some medical merit. “COVID Patients Fared Better at Dedicated Hospitals for It” (MedPage Today, 3/3/2022):

At the two M Health Fairview hospitals converted to treat COVID-19 starting in March and November 2020, overall mortality with COVID-19 was higher than in the health system’s other nine Minnesota hospitals (11.6% vs 8.0%, P<0.001).

But after accounting for the generally sicker patients treated at the dedicated hospitals, in-hospital mortality was a relative 22% to 25% less likely, which was significant in both unmatched and propensity-matched comparisons.

Complications were a relative 19% less likely than at mixed-use hospitals, Elizabeth Lusczek, PhD, of the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, and colleagues reported in JAMA Network Open.

M Health Fairview converted two of its hospitals with building modifications to enhance remote telemetry, create negative airflow rooms with HEPA filters, and update interventional radiology and procedural suites and ensure that the healthcare workers there would have easy access to personal protective equipment (PPE) even in times of general shortage.

We’ve spent $10 trillion over two years in our fight against SARS-CoV-2? How many dedicated COVID-19 treatment centers did we get for this money? I’m thinking that the answer is close to zero, given that every time there is a bump in “cases”, we see media stories about non-specialized hospitals being overwhelmed.

Related:

Full post, including comments

New York Science: masks for 2-year-olds, but not in the strip clubs

Following Science, Mayor Eric Adams of New York City orders 2-year-olds to continue wearing masks while unvaccinated adults are free to party in strip clubs, on Tinder dates, at raves, etc.

(The mayor had a bit of trouble with the courts, but an appeals court ruled in favor of continuing to burden 2-year-olds.)

Florida Realtor of 2022 for Eric Adams? At least for New Yorkers with children under 5, a move to the Sunshine State could be compelling!

And what about the flight to freedom? Can escaping families throw away their masks at JFK or will they have to wait until they’re on the curb at PBI? “Florida is challenging federal mask requirements for travelers” (government-funded WFSU, 3/30/2022):

In Florida’s latest salvo against the Biden administration over COVID-19 restrictions, Attorney General Ashley Moody on Tuesday filed a lawsuit challenging requirements that people wear masks in airports and on planes, trains and buses.

Moody, joined by attorneys general from 20 other states, filed the lawsuit in federal court in Tampa. In part, it contends that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has overstepped its legal authority in requiring masks for travelers.

“Faced with a government that displays outright disdain for the limits on its power — especially when it comes to the COVID-19 pandemic — plaintiffs seek vacatur of that mask mandate and a permanent injunction against its enforcement,” the lawsuit said.

Related:

Full post, including comments

Your health insurance and Medicare tax dollars in the Wizarding World of Harry Potter

We overlapped in Orlando last week with an electronic medical record expert friend who was attending HIMMS 2022, a conference for 20,000 senior hospital executives and the software companies trying to sell them stuff (the first round of digital stuff was paid for partly with $30 billion of taxpayer funds showered on hospitals by the Obama administration). Attendees had to be vaccinated against a 2.5-year-old version of SARS-CoV-2:

Due to the cruel tyranny of the Florida Legislature, they were forced to add a test option:

Our Right of Entry Policies were specifically designed with consideration of relevant Florida regulations. Our policies allow an attendee to voluntarily show validation of their vaccine status if that is their preference (Option A), or to voluntarily show proof of a negative COVID-19 test within one day of badge pick up, if that is their preference instead (Option B).

How about using a saliva-soaked bandana to cancel out the effects of sharing indoor space for five days with 20,000 other people?

Masks are highly encouraged but not required on the HIMSS22 campus.

What happened in practice? My friend: “I didn’t see a single mask.” (Most of these experts on health care and, therefore, avoiding COVID-19, had brought their families to share the hospital-paid hotel rooms and roam the packed-for-spring-break theme parks during the day.)

How rich have hospitals and their vendors become off the river of tax-subsidized health insurance and tax-funded Medicare/Medicaid? They had sufficient $millions to pay Universal to close Islands of Adventure’s doors to the general public at 5:00 pm, clear the rabble out of the park, and run all of the rides exclusively for the HIMMS attendees starting at 7:30 pm. How was the party? “It was awesome! I got on every ride with no line!”

Related:

Full post, including comments

Madonna’s Instagram ban back-tested

We visited Madame Tussauds Orlando earlier this month and learned that Madonna might not be the best celebrity advocate for years of lockdowns, mask orders, and school closures: “It’s better to live one year as a tiger, than one hundred as a sheep.”

This inspired a search that turned up “Madonna’s Instagram account flagged for spreading misinformation” (BBC, July 2020):

Pop star Madonna has been censured by Instagram after sharing a video about a coronavirus conspiracy theory to her 15 million followers.

In her post, the singer claimed a vaccine for Covid-19 had already been found, but was being hidden to “let the rich get richer”.

Instagram blurred out the video with a caption saying: “False Information”.

It also directed users to a page debunking the claims in the video, noting there is no coronavirus vaccine.

Facebook and Twitter had previously removed the video, flagging it as misinformation; while Donald Trump Jr. was banned from tweeting for 12 hours as a penalty for sharing the clip.

What about the absurd “vaccine for Covid-19 had already been found” claim? From December 2020, “We Had the Vaccine the Whole Time” (New York Magazine):

You may be surprised to learn that of the trio of long-awaited coronavirus vaccines, the most promising, Moderna’s mRNA-1273, which reported a 94.5 percent efficacy rate on November 16, had been designed by January 13.

And the “let the rich get richer” calumny against Science? From October 2021, “The richest Americans became 40% richer during the pandemic” (Guardian):

The 400 richest Americans added $4.5tn to their wealth last year, a 40% rise, even as the pandemic shuttered large parts of the US, according to Forbes magazine’s latest tally of the country’s richest people.

“World’s richest become wealthier during Covid pandemic as inequality grows” (NBC, January 2021):

Almost every country in the world is likely to see an increase in inequality because of the pandemic, according to a new report.

“Wealth of world’s 10 richest men doubled in pandemic, Oxfam says” (BBC, January 2022):

Danny Sriskandarajah, Oxfam GB’s chief executive, said the charity timed the report each year to coincide with Davos to attract the attention of economic, business and political elites.

“This year, what’s happening is off the scale,” he said. “There’s been a new billionaire created almost every day during this pandemic, meanwhile 99% of the world’s population are worse off because of lockdowns, lower international trade, less international tourism, and as a result of that, 160 million more people have been pushed into poverty.”

“Something is deeply flawed with our economic system,” he added.

Separately, on the subject of inequality, Madame Tussauds invites visitors to compare their achievements to some Americans who were selected at random:

(Elvis, Oprah, and Dan Marino)

Regarding the rich trying to become richer, here’s child support plaintiff Angeline Jolie and the cash source that she has been tapping:

The best part of visiting Madame Tussauds was hearing our 8-year-old ask, after seeing a realistic sculpture of the King of Pop, “Was Michael Jackson a boy or a girl?”

Full post, including comments

Public health expert predictions vs. The Curve

Here’s an annotated chart from a tweet:

The CNN article cited seems to be “The Omicron surge hasn’t peaked nationwide, and ‘the next few weeks will be tough,’ US surgeon general says” (updated Jan 18). The February 23 interview with Dr. Biden’s colleague Dr. Fauci can be found on MSN.

(I’m not convinced that the above chart proves Dr. Fauci wrong, at least in the eyes of those who Follow Science. The masks won’t come off in Los Angeles until March 23 (ABC). For the Mask Believers (against the evidence), if there is another case surge this summer they could easily attribute it to the late March Unmasking.)

Full post, including comments

Update children’s cartoons to meet today’s propaganda challenges?

While visiting the new Peppa Pig Theme Park, I researched the glorious history of this cartoon. Wikipedia:

Peppa Pig is a British preschool animated television series by Astley Baker Davies. The show revolves around Peppa, an anthropomorphic female piglet and her family and her peers are other animals. The show first aired on 31 May 2004. The seventh season began broadcasting on 5 March 2021. Peppa Pig has been broadcast in over 180 countries.

Peppa and her family did not wear seat belts in cars in the first two series. After receiving several complaints, Astley Baker Davies announced that all future animation would include characters wearing seat belts, and that the relevant scenes in the first two series would be re-animated to include them. Similar changes were also made to add cycle helmets to early episodes with characters riding bicycles.

The main propaganda challenge of the past couple of years has been getting children to worry about a disease that kills 82-year-olds. Depending on the whims of Science at any given moment, we need to convince children to wear masks, give up school and social life, meekly accept injections of emergency use authorized vaccines, etc.

There has been some original propaganda produced in this genre, e.g., Disney’s Goofy series that includes “How to Wear a Mask”:

(Directed by Whoopi Goldberg‘s cousin Eric Goldberg?)

But why not go back and rewrite history, as the New York Times did with the history of mRNA vaccines? Break into the cryptomines and steal enough GPUs to digitally update all of the beloved animated movies and TV shows going back to the 1930s.

Snow White, kissed without consent (because she was as unconscious as a typical American college student on a Friday night), could be approached by a prince in an N95 mask. WALL-E could vaccinate EVE as soon as she arrives on a poisoned-by-SARS-CoV-2 Earth. Timothy Q. Mouse could cooperate with a TSA search and wear a mask at all times, except when eating and drinking, while flying on Dumbo:

Depending on the current CDC guidance and community transmission levels, the masked or unmasked versions of cartoons could be shown/streamed to kids depending on their physical location.

Readers: What do you think about the idea of content that adapts to the latest advice regarding mask-wearing?

Separately, you might ask how the Peppa Pig Park is. The rides are not too exciting, so it isn’t worth going on a crowded day.

As long as we’re talking about COVID-19, it is tough to understand how so many Americans were killed by a virus that attacks the obese:

(Thank you, Apple, for the 13mm-equivalent lens that enables everyone to fit into the frame.)

There is an air-conditioned TV-watching room:

The line to get lunch at the sole in-park restaurant was epic, but this was a Sunday just a week after the park opened and, in fact, they were turning away anyone without pre-purchased tickets or annual passes. Children 2-4 can probably be entertained for hours in the playground, splash park, etc. Our kids wanted to walk across the street to Legoland after about 1.5 hours and said that they wouldn’t go back unless there were no lines.

Full post, including comments

Two-year anniversary of National Naval Aviation Museum’s temporary coronapanic closure

Two years ago (CBS):

The National Naval Aviation Museum is temporarily closing due to concerns over coronavirus.

The museum will be open this weekend, and then close on Monday, March 16.

According to the museum’s official web site, the museum is now technically open, but practically closed because the taxpayers who have been funding it for the past two years are not allowed on the base.

Full post, including comments