Stuff that I got spectacularly wrong in 2003

I’ve been going back through some old blog postings here as part of the migration effort from Harvard’s server.

Here are some things that I got wrong…

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Google management supports a walkout by female employees

A subclass of employees of Google today will stop working and “walk out” (to where? a suburban parking lot?).

The management of the company says that they support this walkout.

Can we infer from this that this subclass of employee is not considered productive or important by management?

See “The $90M Women’s Walkout At Google: Is Real Change Coming?” (Forbes) for how it turns out that the subclass is “employees who identify as female.”

(Also interesting from the Forbes piece is this characterization of the Google Heretic’s memo:

One instance that comes to mind is the ten-page memo that fired Google engineer James Damore wrote in 2017 explaining why women make bad engineers and arguing against the advancement of women in STEM

A perfect illustration of “people don’t remember what you say; they remember how you made them feel”!)

A flight school owner would never express happiness that mechanics or instructors were walking out. These employees are critical to generating revenue. What kind of message does the Google management send when it says “Go ahead and don’t bother to work on Thursday; the business will be just fine without female employees”?

Related:

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Please test the new server

Folks: As you may have noticed, as of today this 15-year-old blog is now integrated into my regular philip.greenspun.com server. Can you please test signing up for email alerts, commenting, and anything else that you might have done on the old (Harvard) server?

Thanks in advance!

Philip

——— squawks so far

“Your blog title comes across as “s Weblog” in my reader.”

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Interest in Jamal Khashoggi’s death proves that Stalin was right?

Joseph Stalin supposedly said, “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.”

I’m wondering if the death of Jamal Khashoggi proves Stalin right. Like other big nation-states, Saudi Arabia has done a lot of arguably bad stuff over the years. A few examples of things that might upset Americans:

There was minimal media coverage about the Saudis being involved in wars or terrorist acts that killed thousands. Why the blanket coverage and demands for action in response to the death of Jamal Khashoggi?

[Separately, is the U.S. in a position to complain about the Saudis eliminating someone they didn’t like? Don’t we blow up guys in Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc. with drones? That’s not exactly due process.]

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Want to join me on a Cuba, Caymans, and Haiti cruise Dec 9-17?

Readers:

An Irish helicopter pilot friend and I are escaping our respective families and winter weather from Dec 9-17 on Royal Caribbean’s Empress of the Seas (itinerary). The basic cabins are absurdly cheap, about $100 per-person per day. This includes a bed, three meals set up to minimize the risk of food poisoning, and entertainment. Should be cheaper than staying home!

It would be awesome if some of you can join. We can evaluate socialism first-hand in Cuba and give Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a full report. We can take some photos of Labadee and send them to Donald Trump so that he can see just how wrong he is about Haiti (as, of course, he is wrong about everything).

Our experience in Haiti will be authentic, according to Wikipedia:

The resort is completely tourist-oriented, and is guarded by a private security force. The site is fenced off from the surrounding area, and passengers are not allowed to leave the property. Food available to tourists is brought from the cruise ships. A controlled group of Haitian merchants are given sole rights to sell their merchandise and establish their businesses in the resort.

Royal Caribbean offers high-speed statellite Internet at a reasonable (considering the satellite link) price. So “have to work that week” is no excuse!

Please email me (philg@mit.edu) if you can join.

Related:

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Minimum cost of college sex tribunal defense

“Two Students Hooked Up. It Was Clearly Consensual. He Still Spent $12,000 Defending Himself.” (Reason) contains more detail than you’d want about the activities of a couple of UC Davis students. It is interesting, though, because it shows the minimum time and cost of a college sex tribunal defense. The official investigation began in January and was terminated in May. The defendant incurred legal bills of $12,000 as well as more than three months of uncertainty regarding his university education.

The mom in this story is not too pleased about the situation. Perhaps parents should budget for legal defense costs when sending sons off to college? Or encourage enrollment at an online university such as Western Governors University instead? If the teenage boy is at work during the day (perhaps in an all-male occupation?) and on the computer doing a class at night, how much trouble can he get into?

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Americans are progressively becoming genetically incompatible with work?

One of my take-aways from Why You Are Who You Are, Investigations into Human Personality, a 24-lecture course (also available from Audible) by Mark Leary, a professor at Duke, is that the characteristics that make someone a good worker are fundamental to personality and highly heritable. One of the “Big Five” personality traits is conscientiousness. “Achievement motivation” is one of the top 3 that researchers look at for understanding why people do what they do.

The fourth member of the big five is the trait of conscientiousness, which reflects the degree to which people are responsible and dependable. Conscientiousness comes down to whether people usually do what they should and whether they try to do it well.

Conscientiousness also involves industriousness and persistence. Conscientious people work harder because getting things done and doing them well takes effort. And they are more likely to persist when tasks become difficult, boring, or unrewarding.

Achievement motivation is the motive to be competent and to perform at a high level, whether that is with regard to professional success, doing well in school, or being a successful athlete. You can think of achievement motivation as the priority that people place on achievement relative to other motives that they might have.

People high in achievement motivation have a more energetic approach to their work, whether it’s their job, schoolwork, or practicing some skill they want to learn. They’re hard workers, and they tend to stay on whatever task they’re doing longer than people who are lower in achievement motivation.

People who are higher in achievement motivation tend to work more hours—on the job or in school, for example—because that’s how one achieves: by doing more than other people. People on the low end of the continuum tend to work just hard enough to get by.

About 40% of the variability that we see in how achievement-oriented different people are has some sort of genetic basis.

How about people nobody wants to have in the workplace?

Personality disorders appear to be more heritable than most normal personality characteristics. About 50% to 80% of the variability that we see in these disorders seems to be genetic.

Consider Tracey Richter-Roberts. Though intellectually and physically capable of work, her penchant for making sexual harassment and sexual assault/abuse claims eventually forced her to earn her income through family court litigation rather than W-2 wages. That she ultimately resorted to murder as a way of preserving her cashflow seems to have been a sign of a personality disorder (she was not mentally ill). “Does Having a Dysfunctional Personality Hurt Your Career? Axis II Personality Disorders and Labor Market Outcomes” (Ettner, et al., 2012) concludes that that a personality disorder is statistically correlated with unemployment.

Suppose that you wanted to create a generation of people who did not enjoy working and whom employers did not want to hire. What would you do? You’d provide financial incentives for people without jobs to have as many children as possible, e.g., free apartments with extra bedrooms as extra children are born, free health care, free food, and a free smartphone. You’d provide disincentives to people with demanding jobs to have children by concentrating jobs in a handful of cities with expensive market rents (even a two-income couple in a coastal U.S. city probably can’t afford a 3 BR or 4 BR apartment) and providing comfortable welfare benefits to anyone who might otherwise have been motivated to work as a nanny for working parents.

Statistically we know that women with demanding jobs tend to have few kids (see also Pew for “Moms with Less Education Have Bigger Families”) and that women on welfare tend to have high fertility. What does it look like on the ground? From Medical School 2020, regarding the first week of OB/Gyn rotation:

Tiffany: “My patient is 29 years old with six kids, soon to be seven, who doesn’t speak a word of English after living in the US for over 10 years. I have nothing against refugees or old people who are not going to be able to learn a new language. But she has been here for over 10 years and doesn’t work. I did my training in Miami and I use Spanish here more than there. Everyone speaks English [in our city]. How does she take care of her kids?” She added: “Geez, I’m sounding Republican now that I make money. Mom always said I would become one. But I’m not, I am a hardcore Democrat. Weird. I just can’t stand lazy people.” Teacher Tom: “Better get used to it.”

Tom and I go see a 25-year-old pregnant mother, father, and cute chubby 3-year-old twins. Nobody in the family speaks English. She is 26 weeks pregnant and complaining of chest pain so was admitted despite being apparently healthy. We struggle to convey basic information about acid reflux and anxiety through a Swahili interpreter on the phone. Tom complains to the team in the resident lounge: “I just spent 30 minutes telling a patient how to take Pepcid. Why the hell is this patient in the hospital? This could all be done in clinic.”

[Note that these are Medicaid patients. By regulation, our M3 student hero is not allowed to assist with privately insured births.]

How about immigrants? They’re coming into the world’s most generous welfare state (Washington Post, which says that only France spends more as a percentage of GDP) so maybe, at least since the inception of the Great Society welfare system in the mid-1960s, we’re attracting people who are lower in conscientiousness and achievement motivation than immigrants of 100 or 200 years ago. The physicians above were struck by their patients’ lack of motivation to learn English, but Professor Leary would tell them to appreciate human diversity in personality, including in achievement motivation.

So… we’ve had two generations of Americans born since the U.S. established a generous welfare system and middle-class-and-above women entered the workforce. Is that enough time for us to see a genetically-driven change?

Readers: Could the fall in U.S. labor force participation rate be genetic? Countries such as Singapore with similar aging demographics, but without a big welfare state, haven’t experienced this kind of dropping labor force participation (data).

Related:

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How is the Harvard admissions race discrimination trial going?

I was flying all week in the Cirrus SR20 with a European customer of our flight school, so I’m behind on the news. How is the trial in the race discrimination case against Harvard University going? Has anything new been discovered? (That Harvard prefers non-Asian students is not new!)

“Harvard’s gatekeeper reveals SAT cutoff scores based on race” (New York Post):

dean of admissions William Fitzsimmons … said Harvard sends recruitment letters to African-American, Native American and Hispanic high schoolers with mid-range SAT scores, around 1100 on math and verbal combined out of a possible 1600, CNN reported.

Asian-Americans only receive a recruitment letter if they score at least 250 points higher — 1350 for women, and 1380 for men.

I find this confusing. Why would Harvard have to send out recruitment letters to Asian men who score 1380? Wouldn’t those guys already know about the existence of Harvard and the possibility of admission? Maybe it makes sense to recruit students with SAT scores of 1100. As this is below the bottom of the range for Michigan State, for example, those students might not realize that they could get into Harvard.

Related:

  • “Official MIT opinion on Korean-Americans” (from 2007): The MIT Dean of Admissions, Marilee Jones, said, never having met the guy, “It’s possible that Henry Park looked like a thousand other Koreans kids… yet another textureless math grind.” (higher-ups in the MIT Administration were okay with this, apparently, though Jones did run into some difficulty due to issues with her resume (Wikipedia))
  • “Former Dean Resurfaces, Leaving Scandal Behind” (nytimes, 2009): “After a move to New York, and a divorce from Steven R. Bussolari, of M.I.T.’s Lincoln Laboratory, she has re-emerged with a new consulting business, offering her services both to admissions offices and to parents.” (the Massachusetts family law system at the time provided for the potential of lifetime alimony regardless of the length of the marriage, so Jones might not have ever needed to work again)
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Why no convertible minivans?

All of the convertibles on the market are 2-seat or 4-seat (except for some Jeeps? but those aren’t cars per se), which means that there should be a wide open field for a company that makes a convertible big enough for a full-size family (though perhaps not for Amy Coney Barrett and her seven kids!).

How about turning an 8-seat minivan into a 7-seat convertible? Borrow some of the space in the last row for the convertible mechanism and then the entire family can enjoy the breeze.

How tough would this be? Maybe it would need to have some framing structure still on the top to accommodate the sliding doors? But what if the entire roof came off and the windows rolled down, leaving essentially just a roll cage?

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FBO news: Crony capitalism with web-published prices

Airports provide a simple example of the crony capitalist system that increasingly prevails in the U.S. Private aircraft operators pay for airport infrastructure via federal taxes on fuel and airline passengers pay via taxes on tickets. The Feds then use this money to fund runways, taxiways, etc. at city- and county-owned airports.

What do the cities and counties do? They turn around and let a private fixed-based operator (FBO) run a monopoly or, sometimes, a duopoly, enterprise charging whatever prices they want for “handling,” parking, fuel, etc. Typically the only limit on what an FBO can charge is set by the existence of an alternative airport nearby. For example, the two FBOs at Chicago Midway can agree with each other to charge $8/gallon for 100LL, but they can’t go to $10/gallon because Gary, Indiana sells fuel for around $5/gallon (B. Coleman is awesome!) and driving from Gary to Chicago is practical.

The heavy jet operators may not care. The customer who charters a Gulfstream will also pay any fees that are assessed. Also, the jet operators band together to negotiate special pricing with FBOs and the biggest jet operators, such as the airlines, NetJets, and the U.S. government, negotiate nationwide deals with FBO networks.

Operators of piston-powered aircraft are in a precarious position because they don’t usually have a customer to whom a fee can be passed on and, even at $8/gallon, the FBO won’t make a significant profit due to costs of regulatory compliance, training, and hiring people for precision blue collar jobs in an economy where labor force participation is falling. The don’t have enough buying power to negotiate with the FBOs, who are busy trying to attract more Gulfstreams.

The organization that represents the interests of all general aviation operators, including the piston-powered mosquitoes, is AOPA. They’ve been trying to chip away at the issue of fees by asking FBOs at least to publish what the fees will be. They’re declaring a small victory this month as Signature, a big UK-owned chain, has started to disclose fees on its web site (it doesn’t seem to be complete, though, because (a) often these fees are waived if a minimum quantity of fuel is purchased, and (b) there are usually additional fees for overnight parking at the popular airports).

One AOPA project is trying to get airports to set up and publicize public transient parking areas. The visiting aircraft that doesn’t need any services can land, park, walk out a gate, get back in with a code, etc. So the aircraft operator uses the runways and taxiways that he or she paid for via fuel taxes and doesn’t get charged for using the FBO’s admittedly-expensive-to-run terminal. Maybe this will become a more critical issue for the public once the age of electric drone-like aircraft is upon us. If an electric drone is making a 1-minute stop to let off a passenger, why does it have to pay a $100 ramp fee?

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