How did Hurricane Fiona, a Category 1 storm, knock out Puerto Rico’s power?

by philg

A few media-following friends in the Northeast have been checking in, concerned that Hurricane Fiona, which knocked out power in Puerto Rico, is also trashing our neighborhood. They are reassured to learn that Puerto Rico is 1,000 miles from Palm Beach County, but it has made me wonder… given that (1) Fiona is only a Category 1 storm, (2) Puerto Rico can expect something similar every year or two (history), and (3) the power grid in Puerto Rico was recently rebuilt to the latest standards (after the 2017 Category 5 Hurricane Irma), why were the reported 85 mph winds enough to take the system out?

Is it simply impossible to make above-ground lines robust enough to handle 85 mph winds? Is the problem that trees will inevitably come down and break the lines even if the lines wouldn’t have been blown down? (But a newly engineered grid should be able to handle quite a few individual tree impacts because the power would be routed around the cut line.)

From state-sponsored NPR in 2021:

It’s been four years since Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico’s electric power grid. Yet even after billions of dollars were allocated by the federal government to repair it, the island’s energy infrastructure is still in terrible shape. Blackouts continued this summer as the two entities responsible for operating the grid pointed fingers at each other over who is to blame. One of those two entities is Luma, a private company that was awarded a contract last year to distribute electricity around the island. The other is the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, known as PREPA, which used to be in charge of the whole system and now continues to operate the power plants.

The restoration process is very bureaucratic because you have Luma going through FEMA’s process, going through the Puerto Rico Energy Bureau’s process. And you also have Luma going through federal process and going through Puerto Rican process. And you know what? There’s not a single work already done with reconstruction funds. They’re still planning and designing. So this will take a lot of years before we see something better.

An IEEE article from 2018 doesn’t explain any of the engineering or technical details:

This past December, I traveled to Puerto Rico to report on this massive undertaking. I found contradictions everywhere I went. I saw utility workers fanned out across the island, yet progress remained excruciatingly slow. I met rank-and-file PREPA employees working flat out to restore power, yet each day brought a new report of fumbles at the utility’s top levels. And I heard many smart and exciting ideas for how to build a modern, resilient grid in Puerto Rico, even as the urgent need to restore power meant resurrecting the vulnerable existing system.

KSUA to TJSJ (skyvector):

Are we going to see “I stand with Puerto Rico” Facebook profile images? Or will people stick with this one:

Full post, including comments

General aviation has more utility thanks to lack of competition among airlines

by philg

Just as Floridians love to talk about the real estate market, a common topic of discussion at EAA AirVenture (“Oshkosh”) was “When does the market for used aircraft collapse?”

I’m bearish on the little airplane market. Due to the reduced labor force participation rate in the U.S., mechanics and parts are in short supply. Airplanes that would have been grounded for 3 days by a particular problem today might be grounded for 3 weeks or even 3 months while folks at Continental, for example, get organized to deliver a required item. Want to get your airplane repainted? One of the preferred shops for Cirrus has a two-year waiting list. After three years of paying hangar, maintenance, and insurance for a plane purchased in 2020, I think the typical new owner will be happy to sell in 2023.

Another reason that I’m bearish is Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle‘s ruling that President Biden’s mask orders for airline passengers were unconstitutional. Air travel is a lot more pleasant than it was when the panic buying of light airplanes began. There is still a risk of contracting COVID-19 on an airplane, but most of the people who were vulnerable to being killed by COVID-19 are already dead. So, if you’re alive you’re probably not all that scared.

In short, a million-dollar used Cirrus doesn’t seem like a good value for transportation and, for most people, $1 million is too much to spend on a hobby item.

One guy took the other side of this argument, pointing out that we now have fewer airlines than at the beginning of the deregulation process begun by Gerald Ford and finished by Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. The absurd JetBlue and Spirit merger that is currently in process (why even bother to have antitrust laws or enforcement if we’re going to allow this?) will result in further consolidation and $2,000 plus bag fees being the new $500 (currently, I think it is fair to say that $1,000 plus bag fees is the new $500).

Even with 100LL at $7 per gallon, the variable costs of running our Cirrus aren’t that different from what airlines are charging, so long as two of the four seats can be filled. I still prefer the airlines for “when you absolutely have to be there”, since they are much less likely to be delayed by weather, but the price comparison isn’t as absurd as it was when airfares were lower.

Readers: What’s your prediction for the little airplane market?

Separately, if you are going to fly commercial try to identify as Cuban-American so that you get a decent welcome on arrival. From the FLL airport, baggage claim level:

Related:

Very loosely related, some recent charter flights (“general aviation”) to our former $300 hamburger destination, KMVY:

A new airline logo, shared by a Gulfstream pilot friend who frequently is in and out of KMVY:

Full post, including comments

Will Maskachusetts allow journalists into Camp DeSantis?

by philg

The arrival of one million migrants into Texas border towns is a minor issue. On the other hand, the arrival of 50 migrants into an island with vacant houses sufficient to hold 50,000 people (the summer population bump) was a crisis that required calling out the Maskachusetts National Guard. The 50 migrants are now off island in a concentration camp within a military base that is itself within a forest in the middle of Nowheresville, MA. Going forward, the only way that an elite Vineyard resident might encounter a migrant is if his/her/zir/their Gulfstream suffers a double-engine failure and crash-lands in the woods of the Inner Cape. Because the migrants arrived in Massachusetts originally on Air DeSantis, let’s call their final destination Camp DeSantis.

In order to disprove accusations of hypocrisy, if there is any access by journalists to Camp DeSantis, the images and reports will have to show that these are the best cared-for asylum-seekers in the history of humanity. On the other hand, if the Four Seasons-style rooms at Camp DeSantis and three-star catered meals are described and illustrated, people might begin to ask “Why isn’t this infrastructure used to care for the 18,000+ people in Massachusetts who are experiencing homelessness?”

What do readers think? Are we going to see regular reports on The Fifty and how great their lives are, courtesy of the open-hearted migrant-welcoming Democrats of Massachusetts? Something like the Theresienstadt documentary, but broken up into tweets?

Related:

  • Progressives in Maine want U.S. to admit more low-skill migrants… (August 2022): …. who will live somewhere other than in Maine.
  • What it takes to welcome refugees and other immigrants (2018): How can a town survive with 10 percent of its population being unskilled unemployed refugees with four kids each? I wonder if the answer is harvesting federal subsidies. Our poorest cities often have sparkling new hospitals, built by mining elderly citizens for Medicare dollars. Could it be that Erie is mining refugees for the Federal Welfare that attaches to them? Each refugee is entitled to housing, health care, and food, all of which will be funded nationally, but purchased in the local economy.
  • “Yes, Florida allocated $12 million to transport migrants out of the state” (CBS): Florida’s Freedom First Budget included $12 million for a program to “transport unauthorized aliens” out of the state, including locations such as Martha’s Vineyard. (in other words, it is not completely fair to credit DeSantis with “Air DeSantis” because the money was appropriated by the legislature)
Full post, including comments

Folks concerned about COVID-19 prepare to gather en masse

by philg

The American Economic Association’s rules for an upcoming gathering of approximately 13,000 people:

(from https://conf.aeaweb.org/)

They’re concerned enough about COVID-19 that they want everyone to wear an N95 mask (not professionally fitted, though, and hence potentially useless against an aerosol foe) and they want to check papers regarding a vaccine that Science (v2020) said prevented infection and transmission. But they’re not concerned enough to refrain from arranging a mass indoor gathering and, instead, meeting via Zoom?

As when I gawk at those who are headed to vacation destinations on jammed airliners in cloth and surgical masks, I remain fascinated by this intermediate level of COVID concern!

Related:

  • “Monkeypox Outbreak a Boner Killer for NYC Gay Sex Parties” (Daily Beast, 9/7/2022): “We have been aggressive in educating our clients through social media and in-house,” said a representative for The Cock, located in NYC’s East Village. “We continue to require COVID vax proof and are frequently posting monkeypox info and vax availability on Twitter, Facebook and Insta.”
  • the Danish Health Authority’s COVID-19 vaccination page: nobody under 50 can get the shots, absent special circumstances, so it would be tough for young Danish economists to attend Karen’s Economics Convention
Full post, including comments

The refugee-industrial complex on refugees as “trash”

by philg

How do people in the refugee-industrial complex think about their industry’s product? “DeSantis sending asylum-seekers to Martha’s Vineyard divides Venezuelan Americans” (NBC):

After Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sent two planes of mostly Venezuelan asylum-seekers to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts, advertising executive Max Lefeld slammed the move as a political stunt.

“It’s like me taking my trash out and just driving to different areas where I live and just throwing my trash there,” said Lefeld, a Venezuelan American who’s a founding member of the Casa Venezuela Dallas foundation, which helps recent refugees.

Here’s the org’s page:

Given that there is no vaccination requirement for asylum-seekers and that vaccination has no effect on infection and transmission, why aren’t they wearing N95 masks?

Full post, including comments

The Jews of Martha’s Vineyard stand with immigrants and refugees

by philg

From the Martha’s Vineyard Hebrew Center:

“We stand with immigrants, with refugees,…” Should this be amended to “We stand with immigrants and refugees for up to 36 hours“? “MA National Guard Activated To Aid Martha’s Vineyard Migrants” (Patch):

Gov. Charlie Baker will activate the National Guard to assist the 50 men, women and children shipped Wednesday to Martha’s Vineyard by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Baker said Friday morning the migrants will be transferred to a shelter at Joint Base Cape Cod in Buzzard’s Bay. The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency will coordinate food and other services for them. About 125 National Guard members will assist, Baker said.

Joint Base Cape Cod has been used as an emergency shelter in the past, including during COVID-19 and after Hurricane Katrina.

DeSantis said the flights to Martha’s Vineyard were part of an effort to “transport illegal immigrants to sanctuary destinations.” The Florida Legislature has earmarked $12 million to transport “unauthorized aliens” out of state.

I’m curious about the use of the word “emergency” to describe 50 migrants, out of more than 1 million asylum-seekers admitted recently (nytimes), appearing on an island that has a huge supply of vacant houses (the typical house on MVY is occupied only seasonally).

How much room is there for housing migrants on MVY through May 2023? From mvy.com:

The Vineyard is home to roughly 17,000 year-round residents. During the summer months, the population increases to nearly 200,000. Sixty-three percent of all homes on the Vineyard belong to seasonal residents.

From the Martha’s Vineyard Commission:

The summer population is five times the winter population, about 75,000 compared to about 15,000.

So it would be straightforward to shelter at least 50,000 migrants on MVY if folks on the island who have displayed “No Human Being is Illegal” signs in their yards wished to provide shelter. (It looks like 60,000 migrants could be sheltered, but there nearly 10,000 tourists who show up only for the day in the summer (like we used to!). If the goal was to shelter migrants with the same amount of space per person as enjoyed by the rich white progressives who come for summer vacation, the September-May capacity would be 50,000.)

Related:

Full post, including comments

Prairie du Chien side trip from Oshkosh

by philg

If you’re looking for something to do southwest of Oshkosh… Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin (KPDC). This is a quick crew car ride away from Effigy Mounds National Monument, a collection of massive earthen sculptures made by Elizabeth Warren’s ancestors during Joe Biden’s youth. Read up on the approaches and departure procedures due to the challenging terrain surrounding the airport. Terrain? On the Wisconsin/Iowa border? This is the Driftless Area that was not scraped flat by the most recent glaciers. Note that the airport is at 660′ above sea level and towers near the airport are on ground that is as high as 1150′ above sea level (1449-299).

Here’s an explanation for the evolution of these sculptures in the Effigy Mounds visitor’s center:

You’re on the banks of the Mississippi River when at the visitor’s center and must ascend 350′ to the top of the bluffs before reaching the mounds.

Consider packing some bug spray because this is the not the artificially-bug-free paradise that Florida somehow manages to achieve for most natural areas. The mounds themselves are tough to photograph, but if you love history you’ll enjoy them. The views over the river:

Once you’re down from the walk, you can celebrate all things 2SLGBTQQIA+ and BLM in Marquette, Iowa:

Back on the Wisconsin side, you can enjoy some food from Pete’s, started in 1909. Two choices: with onions; without onions.

The flight out is beautiful, but note the bluffs rising steeply from the river banks.

I met some city-dwellers who have vacation cabins in this area so there is apparently a fair amount of exploring that could be done with an overnight stay.

Full post, including comments

Migrants are welcome on the island of Martha’s Vineyard….

by philg

… but they need to be “off island”. “‘I Ended Up on This Little Island’: Migrants Land in Political Drama” (New York Times, today):

Ardenis Nazareth, newly arrived from Venezuela, was standing in a McDonald’s parking lot across the street from a San Antonio shelter a few days ago contemplating his next steps. … Then she made an enticing offer: a free flight to a “sanctuary,” he recalled, where there were people to help them get on their feet. The place was called Massachusetts. … he was surprised when he found himself on Martha’s Vineyard, a small, picturesque vacation destination in the Atlantic. “I thought I was coming to Boston,” he said. “I ended up on this little island.”

“I left my country to support my family,” said Mr. Nazareth, a 34-year-old construction worker. He said that since leaving his home country 18 months ago he had tried to make a living in Peru and Chile. But he could not make ends meet, and word spread among his friends that Venezuelans were managing to enter the United States, where jobs were plentiful.

On Thursday, Mr. Nazareth expressed gratitude for the warm reception that he and his brethren had received in Martha’s Vineyard. “They’re treating us super well,” he said.

“We’re getting food, clothing, all our needs met. I love Massachusetts!”

The migrants arrived just as the busy season ended and during one of the worst affordable housing shortages in the island’s history.

The church where they are staying is home to the sole homeless shelter on the island. St. Andrew’s sits in a quiet corner of Edgartown, off the main drag where summer visitors feast on dripping ice cream and oysters.

“We are meeting their needs for food, shelter, and we are definitely supplying them with a lot of love,” said Lisa Belcastro, the manager of the only homeless shelter on the island. “They need to be off island. Their immigration appointments are not here.”

Perhaps this need for migrants to “be off island” will abate if the Obamas begin work on a migrant shelter at their 29-acre Martha’s Vineyard estate. Given the number of seasonal houses on MVY, there should be immediate space for at least 50,000 migrants to live between now and May 2023. After that, Google Maps shows that there is plenty of undeveloped land near the MVY airport and to the south. Much of this land is actually owned by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and thus there would be no obstacle to building permanent housing for as many migrants as wish to settle in this exclusive vacation paradise.

Folks in Massachusetts who say that life in Texas and Florida is intolerable due to malgovernance, the lack of abortion care for pregnant people in reproductive health care settings, etc., now also say that migrants are being injured by being transported from Texas and Florida to Massachusetts. One friend on Facebook, regarding Air DeSantis:

State tax money should not be used to fund a politician primary [sic] at the expense of the lives of asylum seekers whose life’s [sic] are already miserable.

He implies that arriving by chartered jet to MVY is somehow a bad thing for asylum-seekers. If Florida and Texas are bad due to their respective infestations of Republicans, shouldn’t the Massachusetts Democrat be happy and relieved that a migrant has found his/her/zir/their way to Massachusetts? Gavin Newsom says that being given free transportation to a Democrat-governed Science-following state is “inhumane” and that the people who arrange this transportation should be prosecuted as kidnappers.

Not everyone sees this as criminal kidnapping:

Another strange aspect to Democrats’ response to the arrival of migrants in their own states and cities is the allegation that Ron DeSantis is wasting taxpayers’ money by chartering regional jets. Colleges can afford to charter regional jets to move sports teams around. If a state-funded college can afford to charter a regional jet, why can’t a state afford to charter a regional jet or Airbus A320? (Florida state government took in 21 percent more than was spent in the last fiscal year, resulting in a $22 billion surplus. If we assume per-passenger charter costs of $1,000 that’s enough to fund transportation for 22 million migrants.)

Update from Alex (comments below): “MA National Guard Activated To Aid Martha’s Vineyard Migrants”. Rather than enjoy access to water, cash jobs from folks with “No Human Being is Illegal” signs on their front lawns, etc., the 50 migrants will be moved off the island at gunpoint by 125 soldiers and confined to an inland military base.

Related:

Full post, including comments

Pent-up inflation from low labor force participation rate?

by philg

In the spring of 2020, the typical state governor ordered his/her/zir/their subjects to stay home and watch TV or play Xbox. A lot of us are still following the habits that we developed in 2020. The U.S. labor force participation rate:

A business executive with whom I talked in Oslo said “it takes three months to create a new habit,” which was his explanation for why a fair number of Norwegians haven’t returned to their pre-coronapanic work habits. (World Bank stats show that Norwegians are much more likely to work than Americans, with participation rates of 66 percent versus 61 percent. Part of this may be a difference in family law. It is not straightforward in Norway to live comfortably off a prior sexual relationship, either by alimony or child support. The country offers no-fault (“unilateral”) divorce, but anecdotally, profits are limited to about 10 percent of the defendant’s pre-tax income. Having sex with a high-income defendant and harvesting child support is even less lucrative.)

I’m wondering if there is some pent-up inflation that we’ve built into the U.S. economy by teaching people how great life at home with a plethora of screens can be. Getting Americans back to work at previous levels plainly will require paying them more than what employers are currently paying.

We saw evidence of this in every state that we visited this summer between Florida and Oshkosh, Wisconsin. A coffee shop near Great Smoky Mountain National Park:

Indianapolis:

A hotel manager in Oshkosh explained that he had to fly people in from Florida and Georgia to work during the peak EAA AirVenture week.

An airport manager retired in May 2021 and, as of July 2022, the city of Prairie du Chien had not been able to find a replacement at the wages offered (about $63,000 per year, plus benefits worth another $40,000 per year?):

The saddest photo of all… a homemade donut shop with shortened hours in Chattanooga:

What do we think? Is there a round of inflation built into our society that is yet to hit us? Either employers will have to raise wages to get Americans off our couches or money will need to be borrowed/printed by the government to fund all of the means-tested benefits to which the couch-dwellers are entitled (raising tax rates is not an option, I don’t think, for increasing revenue because rates are already set to the level that maximizes taxes actually collected). Both of these changes would be inflationary.

(Norway, incidentally, has no help-wanted signs nor, as far as I could tell given my illiteracy, any apology signs. The locals say that service businesses are short-staffed and that quality has suffered, but that all recruiting is done online so customers won’t see signs encouraging job applications.)

Related:

  • “Who Are America’s Missing Workers?” (NYT, 9/12/2022): “I could jump back in, but then I got used to being retired,” said Thomas Strait, who chose early retirement at the beginning of the pandemic. [moving from California to Florida] … men in their prime working years, from 25 to 54, have retreated from the work force relative to February 2020, while women have bounced back. [Is it men or women who love Xbox more?] … “A lot of workers are still disconnected, and we’re just not seeing them come on,” said Jesse Wheeler, an economic analyst with the polling and analysis firm Morning Consult. “It’s unclear how all of them are making ends meet, but I think it has a lot to do with consolidation of households and cutting costs. It would’ve been difficult to change if they weren’t forced into it.”
  • Help-wanted ad from the University of California, Santa Cruz: The Critical Race and Ethnic Studies Department (https://cres.ucsc.edu/) at the University of California, Santa Cruz (UCSC) invites applications for a an Assistant/Associate Professor of Critical Race Science and Technology Studies (STS). … A demonstrated record of research that de-centers Western scientific ways of knowing and challenges extractivist capitalist practices is especially welcome as are commitments to queer and indigenous ecologies, trans-species studies, and race-radical approaches to STEM. … Ideal applicants will demonstrate an approach to science and technology grounded in histories of and innovative methods of analyzing anticolonial, decolonizing, liberationist political thought and praxis, … Document requirements … Statement of Contributions to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion** – Statement on your contributions to diversity, equity, and inclusion, including information about your understanding of these topics, your record of activities to date, and your specific plans and goals for advancing equity and inclusion if hired at UC Santa Cruz. Candidates are urged to review guidelines on statements (see https://apo.ucsc.edu/diversity.html) before preparing their application.
Full post, including comments

Oshkosh 2022 wrap-up

by philg

Trying to get through my backlog of summer stories and photos… here are some miscellaneous thoughts from EAA AirVenture (“Oshkosh”) 2022, which enjoyed record attendance of about 650,000 people (stats; each member of our family might have been counted 7 times, however, because that’s how a weekly pass was accounted for, at least in 2001 (“The inflation of EAA attendance figures by the local media, by the Chamber of Commerce, and by the EAA itself is not a trivial matter.”)).

We wandered by the One Week Wonder, a kit airplane that goes from parts to taxi over 7 days. My friend said “How does this make people who are half-finished after 7 years feel?” The volunteer team started on Monday morning and here they are on Friday:

The airplane was inspected by the Federales and flew 2.5 weeks after Oshkosh, on August 18.

Who will paint it? From the world’s leading experts on aircraft paint, we heard good things about Aerosmith Aviation in Longview, Texas.

The predicted proliferation of $100,000 light sport airplanes continues, with approximately one type per certificated Light Sport pilot. Expect to pay closer to 400,000 Bidies, however, for the slick-looking ones. Here’s a French-built Elixir, new to the U.S. market:

You know that the real estate market has reached peak insanity when new airparks are developed. There were booths for The Fields near Chattanooga. Why use the 7400′ runway at KCHA that you paid for via your aviation fuel taxes when you can instead pay to build and maintain your own 4200′ runway? Another one is a through-the-fence project in Sandpoint, Idaho. The public airport to which the homes are connected has a 5,500′ runway.

The warbirds section was great as usual. We tried to organize a protest against the folks who painted a swastika on this ME-109, recovered from a lake in Russia and the subject of a 10-year restoration project:

Unfortunately, as with my attempts to get people to kneel during the national anthem at air shows, I was unsuccessful.

Another unusual airplane, the Bell P-63 (Wikipedia says that there are 5 airworthy examples in the U.S.):

The Lycoming engine disassembly/assembly demonstrations are worth watching. If they could manufacture an engine for the Robinson R44 Raven I that didn’t fail once a year (bad intake valves leading to dramatic in-flight kicking/yawing), that would be even better!

We found some good options for those traveling with a family. The University of Wisconsin’s Blackhawk Commons cafeteria has salad, vegetables, and fruit that can be tough to find in conventional restaurants. Plenty of space for kids to run around. I previously highlighted the “contains nuts” warning to the next generation of college-education geniuses (all paid for by the working class!) who are confronted with a pecan pie.

Those who want to enjoy an allergen-free dining experience have their own room:

Contrast to public school here in Palm Beach County, Florida. At a curriculum night for 3rd grade, the teachers noted that parents of a child having a birthday can send him/her/zir/them to school with a container of baked treats for the class. I asked “What are the restrictions on what can be included? If a parent sent cookies with nuts in Maskachusetts, the school building would have to be demolished.” There were none! Children who didn’t like or couldn’t eat what was sent in would get a backup treat from the teachers’ hidden supply.

A fun excursion is the Sweet Lair Cafe in Neenah, Wisconsin, which offers hundreds of board games for customers.

The airshows were great, as usual, including the epic fireworks after the night airshows. The performer about whom other airshow pilots wondered “How he is still alive?” is Skip Stewart, who likes to cut ribbons during low passes over the runway. We appreciated the afterburner-at-dusk show from Randy Ball, an Air Wisconsin captain, flying the MiG 17.

The USAF came out to show off the F-35. Nobody needs an assault rifle, certainly, which is a weapon of war that should be necessary only if there is an invasion (note that millions of asylum-seeking migrants coming across the southern border is not an invasion). EAA AirVenture is a gun-free environment, with firearms being strictly prohibited and visitors and bags checked to make sure that no knives or guns come in. Not exactly the war situation that President Biden said might call for an assault rifle. Yet the USAF decided that the parked F-35 should be guarded by… some guys with assault rifles. [Correction from a reader: the parked F-35 is actually a Navy plane, which means that there were at least two F-35s at OSH.]

We made the mistake of going to the seaplane base when there was a touch of wind/chop and, consequently, nobody was flying. The AirCam, now available with three seats, is always great to see!

Hope to see everyone at Oshkosh in 2023!

Full post, including comments