Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

From Greenfield Village, to which Henry Ford moved the Wright Brothers’ bicycle shop:

The sign:

“Thousands of pages had been written on the so-called science of flying, but for the most part, the ideas set forth, like the designs for the machines, were mere speculations and probably ninety percent were false.” — Wilbur Wright

As with coronaplague, there was a credentialed elite to which those interested in heavier-than-air flying were supposed to defer. Professor Samuel Langley, for example. As with coronaplague, the only things that these scientists couldn’t do were make accurate predictions or design systems that functioned as they desired.

Aside from the Wienermobile, my favorite part of the Henry Ford Museum visit was seeing family groups in which one or two members were unmasked while the rest were following science by wearing simple non-N95 paper or cloth masks. Despite fine science-guided leadership from the White House and nearly 70 percent of folks in Wayne County being Democrats, only 1 in 50 of the visitors wore a mask indoors. How could a saliva-soaked cloth or paper mask protect the handful of wearers from contagion? And, if that was the goal, what was the point? In the group below, for example, Adult 1 and Teenager would be protected, but Adult 2 would spread whatever germs acquired during the museum visit once back in the car or home (unless they also use masks within the car/house?).

Here’s another example. The older couple in the back of the Model T walked around Greenfield Village, one masked and one not masked:

Readers: What is the rationale of family groups in which one person regularly uses a mask in public while the others do not? How does the masked person hope to escape coronaplague under those circumstances? (Or maybe the answer is “he/she/ze/they doesn’t, but wishes to protect others” but, in that case, why does he/she/ze/they stay in the family? Why not take advantage of Michigan’s no-fault divorce system and move away from the thoughtless science-deniers?)

Full post, including comments

“Unvaccinated Covid-19 patients are filling up hospitals, putting the care of others at risk, doctors say” (CNN):

Hospitals are surging with unvaccinated patients infected with the Delta variant — which could affect car accident victims and other non-Covid-19 patients who need hospital care, doctors say.

“None of these patients thought they would get the virus, but the Delta variant has proven to be so highly contagious that even the young and the healthy, including pregnant patients, are now starting to fill up our hospitals,” said Dr. Neil Finkler, chief clinical officer for AdventHealth Central Florida.

(Note that it is not “women” who become pregnant, but “patients” in a beautiful rainbow of gender ID)

Here’s how it looked on my phone (Apple News):

Why haven’t the technocrats come up with the obvious modest proposal? If the unvaccinated are euthanized they won’t clog up the hospital beds to which the righteous are entitled.

Related:

• “A Covid-19 Lesson: Some Seriously Ill Patients Can Be Treated at Home” (New York Times), reminding us that there is actually no reason for most hospitalized COVID patients to be in the hospital (an oxygen bottle in the hospital doesn’t work any better than an oxygen bottle at home)

Full post, including comments

If you want to be by yourself in the U.S., one sure way is to get on a public transit bus outside of rush hour. Pre-coronapanic occupancy of a city bus, including during rush hours, was about 6 (U.S. DOT, 2019):

If it used to be, outside of rush hour, 3 people on a bus with a capacity of 75 prior to coronapanic, what do we think it is today? Anecdotally, I would say that 0, 1, or 2 passengers are the most common occupancies. At 7:37 pm on a Monday evening in Detroit, the articulated bus in the picture below had two passengers and the standard bus had none.

• 

• 

Both buses had “face masks required” signs on the front. The question today: Why? Under no circumstances will these buses become more crowded than an average retail store, in which masks are not required. Why a categorical rule that a solo passenger in the back of an otherwise empty huge bus must wear a mask?

Separately, here’s the web page for the QLINE, a 3.3-mile streetcar system that cost $140 million to build:

More than a year of shutdown waiting for coronapanic to end. Empty cars seemed to run every hour or so with “not in service” signs on the front.

Full post, including comments

I wasn’t invited to Barack Obama’s 700-person mass gathering and I haven’t followed the example set by the former President by hosting my own. However, I did recently attend my first big in-person gathering since March 2020, i.e., EAA AirVenture (“Oshkosh”). One thing that I wondered about at Oshkosh, while surrounded at most times by 100,000+ people, roughly 1 in 200 of whom were masked indoors (closer to 1 in 500 or 1 in 1,000 outdoors), was what the point of city- and state-level COVID-19 restrictions are in a country where there are no internal border controls (or any external ones either, assuming that the person wishing to cross is willing to say that he/she/ze/they have suffered from domestic violence, gang attention, etc.?). A relatively quiet moment inside the Garmin pavilion (zooming in, I can find one guy in a non-N95 mask; what’s his rationale I wonder?):

First, let’s assume that, contrary to the lived experienced of folks in the Czech Republic and Peru, masks and police-/military-enforced lockdowns actually are effective. #Science proves that masks and shutdowns save lives, no matter how high on the COVID-19 death rate leaderboard a masked-and-shut country is. Wrapping a population in saliva-soaked bandanas will stop an aerosol virus.

Second, let’s assume that people can travel freely from an irresponsible unmasked un-shut part of the country to a virtuously masked-and-shut part.

Under these two assumptions, is the masking and partial shutting of Los Angeles, for example, effective when people can leave LA, attend an unmasked mass gathering, and return to LA?

Here’s a scene that has been repeated more or less every weekend in St. Petersburg, Florida, for example:

(Phone video of 10,000+ people gathering in various bars along one street. Fortunately the local public health authorities ordered children to wear masks for 7 hours/day in the nearby schools!)

I don’t like to say that everything needs to be directed by the central planners in Washington, D.C., but I’m having difficulty understanding why we ever thought that this state-by-state, county-by-country, and city-by-city policy-setting could be effective, even if we started from the assumption that humans are in charge of coronavirus.

(The 1,000+ government employees, e.g., USAF flight crews, Army helicopter crews, U.S. Navy pilots, FAA controllers, NOAA scientists, police officers, etc. were entirely unmasked at the event, even, for example, when officially hosting the Delta-variant-infected public inside poorly ventilated aircraft or hangars. It seems that scientifically-guided leadership from the White House is not sufficient to convince even those on the government payroll.)

Related:

• “Oxford study: 2020 Sturgis Rally tied to more than 400 COVID-19 cases across 30 states, 1 death”

Full post, including comments

“Despite delta, Sturgis Motorcycle Rally poised to ride again” (ABC):

South Dakota’s Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which begins Friday and runs through Aug. 15, is expected to draw upwards of 700,000 attendees. Last year’s rally, which took place during the height of the United States’ summer surge, had more than 400,000 estimated attendees, many of whom didn’t wear masks as they patronized bars, restaurants and concerts.

The downstream effect was tangible: At least 649 COVID-19 cases were linked to Sturgis, including secondary and third-degree contacts.

Republican Gov. Kristi Noem supports the rally, a major economic driver in the state.

“There’s a risk associated with everything that we do in life,” Noem wrote on Twitter Wednesday. “Bikers get that better than anyone.”

So… the 400,000 Fauci-deniers in 2020 were responsible for 649 out of the 35,392,284 total cases thus far reported out of PCR toaster ovens in the U.S. Reprehensible! (see this Bill Burr video at 6:40 for the correct way to say “reprehensible”)

See also “Oxford study: 2020 Sturgis Rally tied to more than 400 COVID-19 cases across 30 states, 1 death”:

More than 463 COVID-19 cases across 30 states were directly connected to the Sturgis Rally in August and September 2020. Seventeen patients were hospitalized and one person died, according the report by the Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The #Science-informed righteous condemned the Sturgis gathering in 2020 and they are condemning it this year as well.

Let’s look at a smaller mass gathering that is not condemned and for which there have been no calls for shutdown. Provincetown, Massachusetts has a population of about 3,000, which expands with tens of thousands of additional visitors during summer weekend (certainly not to 400,000; the town has essentially just two streets). From Slate:

According to a report the agency released on Friday, the CDC’s latest findings were based on a July 4 COVID-19 outbreak in queer mecca Provincetown, Massachusetts, where among a cluster of 469 (with no deaths) at the time of study, an astonishing three-quarters of the infected had been fully vaccinated. As of July 31, the P-Town outbreak had ballooned to 965 cases.

It was about halfway through our weeklong stay when one vaccinated friend from New York City began to report not feeling well. Unable to stop coughing, he and his boyfriend drove to Outer Cape Health Services, where he tested positive for COVID and immediately fled the cape. Soon after that, I began to hear whisperings—whether at the Mussel Beach gym or traditional “high tea” gatherings by the pool at the Boatslip Resort—of a “gay cough” circulating among some out-of-towners.

The gathering in Provincetown caused 2X as many cases as Sturgis 2020, despite being only about 1/10th the size (could there be a behavioral difference comparing Harley riders to P-town visitors?). Shouldn’t we expect public health experts to demand a governor’s order to shut down the P-town scene? Why is it irresponsible for motorcycle enthusiasts to gather in South Dakota and responsible for New Yorkers and Bostonians to gather in Provincetown?

Addressing the national lifeguard shortage (July 2018):

View of the harbor from the public library:

A P-town shop in which all genders are welcome, but only one gender ID has a future (July 2018):

• 

• 

The featured Young Adult Non-Fiction section at the public library (March 2019):

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

What if we try to merge the rainbow of Provincetown with the value system of Sturgis? We get “Better a Sister in a Whorehouse than a Brother on a Honda” T-shirts in a rainbow of colors!

Full post, including comments