Category: Coronapanic

Karen frets about Swedish ICU capacity

by philg

A variety of friends on Facebook (mostly identifying as “women” and in their 50s) have been posting their concern regarding the wicked Swedes running out of ICU capacity, implicitly due to their failure to don the Church of Shutdown’s hijab and continuing to run (unmasked!) schools for everyone under 16.

(For the first time in the year since Covid-19 reached the U.S./Europe, the Swedes have some real restrictions, e.g., movie theaters and similar large “public” gatherings are shut down; our Swedish helicopter instructors says that his mom’s hair salon has been open continuously, however, and remains open. His parents still don’t own a mask. They would be discouraged from hosting a party for 30 people at their house, but it would not be illegal for them to do so. Unlike in Maskachusetts, Swedes need not tell the government when they’ve traveled or to where nor do they need to submit medical records to government authorities “on request”.)

An example post: “ICUs in Stockholm reach 99 percent capacity: report” (The Hill).

In the best American fashion, this article presents all of the information out of context. How many ICU beds are there in Sweden? How does that compare to what we have here in the U.S.? How does the number of Covid-19 patients in the ICU compare to what Sweden had back in the spring of 2020?

First, it seems that the number of ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients is actually only about half what it was during the April 2020 peak:

How does 259 ICU patients with Covid-19 in wicked Sweden compare to the situation in place that is a model of shutdown (9 months) and masks (7-8 months)? Maskachusetts currently has 309 Covid-19 patients in the ICU (state dashboard) or 1.7X the rate when adjusted for population.

Second, it looks as though Swedes don’t have that many hospital beds that they designated as “ICU”. Reuters, under a headline that directly contradicts the above (“ICU bends not full”):

Sweden still has 148 unoccupied beds in intensive care wards nationwide, corresponding to 22% free capacity, said Irene Nilsson-Carlsson, senior public health adviser at the National Health Board.

In other words, the entire country of more than 10 million people has about 675 hospital beds designated as “ICU”.

How does this compare to the U.S.? Here in Maskachusetts, population 7 million, we have 1,500 “ICU” beds in ordinary times and that is boosted to 2,700 for a “surge” (boston.com). Sweden would need 4,000 ICU beds to have the same number per person as Massachusetts.

How about the rest of the U.S.? It looks as though 70,000 adult ICU beds is the baseline (aha.org). That’s 212 beds per million residents of the U.S. Sweden has 66 ICU beds per million residents.

So… even without coronavirus, if the Swedes organized medicine the way that we do, 100 percent full ICU in Sweden would correspond to 31 percent full in the U.S.

See also Infidels in Sweden are refusing to die (April 21):

For True Believers in the Church of Shutdown, what Sweden is doing is merely a variant form of their own religion, just as Hinduism was for the Portuguese who spent an entire summer on the west coast of India in the late 15th century. So strong was their belief in Christianity that they believed Hindu temples to be churches (and Ganesha was Jesus with a big Jewish nose?). They attended Hindu religious rituals and believed that they were observing Christian practices.

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God loves Florida?

by philg

Maskachusetts is the 3rd most restricted state in the U.S. (WalletHub ranking). Florida is ranked #11 for freedom. Yet the latest map from covidexitstrategy.org, which our state officials use to decide cleanliness/godliness for travel order purposes, shows that no-mask-order Florida has 427 new cases of COVID-19 per million residents while fully-masked-since-May Massachusetts has 704 new cases per million (slightly lower positivity rate, but that could simply be due to the fact that universities here are constantly testing the rich white locked-in students and thus pumping up the denominator).

If the God of Shutdown is a just god, and the people of Florida have been flouting the church dogma of shutdown+masks, aren’t we forced to conclude that the God of Shutdown has a special love for Floridians?

Related:

  • On the third hand, “No Excess Deaths In Massachusetts Over the Past Six Months” (from our state’s boards of health): This means that for any one currently living in Massachusetts that the probability of dying from any cause has been equal to or lower than during the previous seven years. Does this sound like a strange statistic given all that you have heard about the increased death rates due to COVID-19 during the past six months? Given this fact, why are so many individuals more afraid of dying from COVID-19 than any other cause? The answer is that numbers reported without proper adjustments, missing critical denominators or taken out of context altogether lend themselves to false interpretation. [This page has some stats and you can adjust to see different states; Florida has roughly the number of expected deaths from all causes currently.]
  • Optimum COVID-19 American lifestyle: Florida in winter; Maine in summer?
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How does HIPAA interact with state governors’ demands for COVID-19 test results?

by philg

Today is National Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day, marking 79 years since we entered World War II in order to fight Totalitarianism.

Here in Massachusetts, as part of our governor’s more-than-50 orders, we are required to tell the government, via a web form, about any travels that we might have undertaken. And “Quarantine for 14 days or produce a negative COVID-19 test result that has been administered up to 72-hours prior to your arrival in Massachusetts.”

From mass.gov:

72-hour Testing Rule: The individual can produce, upon request, proof of a negative test result for COVID-19 from a test administered on a sample taken no longer than 72 hours before your arrival in Massachusetts.

So we’ve spent hundreds of $billions (software, time spent with forms) for our medical records to be protected by HIPAA (federal law), but the state can demand a portion of our record via a “request” (fine of $7,000 if one fails to comply with the “request”; see the governor’s 45th order).

Plainly the Shutdown Karens can say that this is quite reasonable. The governor has declared an emergency so the state government should have access to whatever is necessary to deal more effectively with that emergency (never mind that test and trace immediately fell apart, so this information is useless, or that the typical person is not contagious by the time a test has been scheduled and result received (NYT)). But, on the other hand, a governor can declare additional “emergencies” any time that he/she/ze/they wants to. Obesity kills far more Americans than COVID-19. Couldn’t a governor declare an obesity crisis and demand that people submit medical records related to obesity and diabetes? We’re already in an opioid crisis, right? Why shouldn’t the state have the right to “request” your prescription records to make sure that you haven’t been getting too many OxyContin pills? (and fine you $7,000 if you fail to comply with the request)

Very loosely related, a conversation with a 5-year-old after putting a e-collar on our golden retriever to prevent her from scratching at a scab:

  • Me: Mindy doesn’t like wearing this collar.
  • Child: Why not?
  • Me: Even a dog can tell when her liberty is taken away.
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Health care workers in Aruba plead with you to stay home and avoid travel

by philg

“Health Care Workers Plead With Americans To Take Pandemic More Seriously” (NPR):

Health workers and hospitals already strained by the pandemic are increasingly making direct appeals to the public with open letters, asking people to mask up and stay at home this holiday season.

I was chatting this evening with our stealth author of Medical School 2020. He’s working 12-hour shifts at a hospital where roughly 8 percent of the beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. “Remember that if someone comes in with appendicitis and happens to test positive, they become a ‘COVID-19 patient’ in our census,” he said.

How seriously do frontline health care workers take the pandemic? Our mole in the system described a doc and nurse couple electing to take a mid-November vacation in Aruba. They got on a flight that was 100-percent full, thus voluntarily spending hours sharing a narrow cylinder of air with 150+ other humans. When they got off the plane, they were subjected to screening questions by the Aruban authorities. Instead of admitting that they worked in a hospital every day, they said that they “worked in biochem.” On reaching the (packed) resort, they said “The majority of the other guests were health care workers” (i.e., there were additional hundreds of doctors, nurses, etc. who had chosen to take the risk of contracting COVID-19 at the jammed airports or on the full flights).

(Separately, should COVID-19 patients be in the hospital to begin with? It is not like having a heart attack or getting into a car accident where the doctors have effective treatments to offer. Why aren’t they at home with an oxygen bottle and a CPAP machine or high-flow nasal cannula? A med school professor friend:

Many things could be done from home cheaper and safer but we don’t have the infrastructure or culture. Home model kills the rationale for the hospital cash cow.

Our Medical School 2020 author:

I agree that outside of severe Covid, most of the interventions can be done at home — we send patients home with up to 5 L O2 for bad COPD. It somewhat reminds me of the slow transition from inpatient to outpatient management for other conditions, e.g., deep ventous thromobosis (“blood clots in the legs”) that now is managed with oral blood thinners at home instead of in the hospital. … There are really only a few interventions that we do for covid19 — low and high flow oxygen supplementation, noninvasive (think CPAP) or invasive mechanical ventilation, steroids (actually a good intervention for mechanically ventilated patients — 30 vs 40 percent 1-month mortality) and remdesivir (only benefit shown in low O2 patients with decrease in hospital stay of 10 vs 15 days in small study). … I agree that the only difference for non-severe covid infections between home versus inpatient is just getting telemetry monitoring and daily labs in the hope of catching worsening pulmonary function or prognostication of the weird complications of covid (e.g., heart attacks, blood clots). Unsure of our prognostic ability to guess who will worsen versus who will improve early on in the course (uptodate states the shortness of breath from covid19 occurs up to 8 days after symptom onset). Perhaps utilizing some Apple Watches and Fitbits over those 8 days might save some hospital beds.

See “A Covid-19 Lesson: Some Seriously Ill Patients Can Be Treated at Home” (NYT, July 18) for a story about a hospital that innovated.)

Is #StayHomeSaveLives the new #TakeTheBusSaveThePlanet? Classically, everyone agrees that it would be a good idea if other people took the bus or the subway, thus reducing traffic congestion and pollution.

From the official Aruba tourism site:

(I would love to go right now, but despite my reputation for skepticism regarding coronapanic, I would not voluntarily get on a commercial airline with all seats full.)

Related:

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Why not heated furniture to fight coronaplague?

by philg

In their righteous muscular efforts to “control” coronavirus, some state governors and city mayors have ordered restaurants shut down, except for outdoor dining. In response, restaurants have built four-sided tents filled with CO2-emitting propane heaters. It is unclear why this is different from being indoors, other than the lack of a real HVAC system. The tent sides are necessary, though, because otherwise the propane heat will blow away.

Why not heat the customers instead of the air?

Back in 2010, I wrote Heated Furniture to Save Energy?

A lot of cars have heated seats. When the seat heater is on, most drivers will set the interior temperature 3-7 degrees lower than with the seat heater off. Why not apply the same technology to houses?

Imagine being at home in a 65-degree house. Even in a T-shirt and jeans, it would probably be comfortable to walk around, stir a pot on the stove, carry laundry, scrub and clean, walk on a treadmill while typing on a computer (as I’m doing now!). However, if one were to sit down and read a book, it would begin to seem cold. Why not install heat in all of the seats and beds of the house? And sensors to turn the heat on and off automatically? In a lot of ways, this would be more comfortable than a current house because the air temperature would be set for actively moving around while the seat temperature would be set for sedentary activities.

There is a fine line between brilliant and stupid, of course, but could it be that coronaplague has pushed this idea over the line?

A Dutch company, sit & heat, seems to have thought of this: heated cushions that can fit into a standard frame. Serta makes a chair-shaped electric quilt (could not survive outdoors) for only $64. A plastic chair with a built-in 750-watt heater is $900 (Galanter & Jones; they have sofas too at roughly $6,000 and claim they are “cast stone”).

If heated chairs were mass-produced in Asia, presumably the cost per chair would be only about $100 more than a regular outdoor chair. That should be affordable for a restaurant.

Related:

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Does disinfectant theater contribute to coronaplague?

by philg

Text message exchange with a couple of 24-year-olds:

  • Me: We can come over now.
  • Them: We are at the gym!
  • Me: You’re always there. I am amazed you haven’t gotten coronaplague yet!
  • Them: Hahaha I know! The gym we go to is super clean.

Surface contamination has been ruled out as a significant source of coronavirus infection, right? (see below, however, for how cleaning can cut flu risk by 2 percent) Everyone agrees that it is now mostly about aerosols and therefore a gym is a perfect environment for spreading, yes? (People breathing hard and relying on non-N95 masks and/or bandanas as PPE.)

Masks make people complacent and prone to ignoring instructions to keep a 6′ distance. I wonder if the sight of workers with spray bottles and paper towels has the same effect. These 24-year-olds feel that they are significantly less likely to get infected because they’ve seen every surface being wiped, despite the fact that wiped surfaces are irrelevant when faced with an aerosol enemy.

Related:

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Elites dine out in Los Angeles while schools for the non-elites are closed

by philg

“LA County Supervisor dines at restaurant hours after voting to ban outdoor dining” (Fox 11, LA):

Just hours after Los Angeles County Supervisor Sheila Kuehl voted to ban outdoor dining at L.A. County’s 31,000 restaurants over COVID-19 safety concerns, she visited a restaurant in Santa Monica, where she dined outdoors, FOX 11 has learned on Monday.

During Tuesday’s L.A. County Board of Supervisors meeting, Kuehl referred to outside dining as “a most dangerous situation” over what she described as a risk of tables of unmasked patrons potentially exposing their servers to the coronavirus.

“This is a serious health emergency and we must take it seriously,” Kuehl said.

“The servers are not protected from us, and they’re not protected from their other tables that they’re serving at that particular time, plus all the hours in which they’re working.”

Kuehl went on to vote in support of restricting outdoor dining in Los Angeles County, which passed by a 3-2 margin of the Board of Supervisors.

In other words, reasonable minds can differ on whether or not restaurant dining is permissible. Everyone can agree that public schools for children of the non-elite, closed since March, should remain closed. From the LAUSD site (retrieved 12/1):

As the level of the virus in the Los Angeles area remains widespread, state guidelines say schools cannot reopen at this time, and we will not reopen schools until it’s safe and appropriate to do so. We are preparing to serve students at schools as soon as it’s possible, in the safest way possible. Our plans include the highest standards for health, education and employee practices at schools.

Meanwhile, in Frogland… “Positive Test Rate of 11 Percent? France’s Schools Remain Open.” (NYT) How about in “give the finger to the virus” territory? From “Sweden has kept schools open during the pandemic despite spike in cases”:

“I think it is good that they don’t wear face masks,” one mother tells FRANCE 24, as she leaves her children at school. “I think it is very important that they go to school, otherwise it would be very difficult for me to work.”

The teachers also believe it is very important to stay open, particularly for struggling students.

“They need a teacher in the same room as them to cheer them on and clarify things,” says Charlotte Hammarback, a teacher at the NYA Elementary School in Stockholm. “Most of the time these students will not ask for help, they will just sit and wait until someone comes up to them.”

No-mask Mom doesn’t #FollowScience!

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Implementations of outdoor school for plague prevention

by philg

What about my May 2020 dream Plague-proof Florida and Texas with shaded outdoor classrooms?

“Classrooms Without Walls, and Hopefully Covid” (NYT) says that it is vaguely alive, but the examples are mostly in the frozen north. The efforts at physical infrastructure have been feeble. And, instead of simply teaching the regular curriculum, the schools are trying to reinvent teaching at the same time as reinventing the teaching environment.

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