Public health expert predictions vs. The Curve

Here’s an annotated chart from a tweet:

The CNN article cited seems to be “The Omicron surge hasn’t peaked nationwide, and ‘the next few weeks will be tough,’ US surgeon general says” (updated Jan 18). The February 23 interview with Dr. Biden’s colleague Dr. Fauci can be found on MSN.

(I’m not convinced that the above chart proves Dr. Fauci wrong, at least in the eyes of those who Follow Science. The masks won’t come off in Los Angeles until March 23 (ABC). For the Mask Believers (against the evidence), if there is another case surge this summer they could easily attribute it to the late March Unmasking.)

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Update children’s cartoons to meet today’s propaganda challenges?

While visiting the new Peppa Pig Theme Park, I researched the glorious history of this cartoon. Wikipedia:

Peppa Pig is a British preschool animated television series by Astley Baker Davies. The show revolves around Peppa, an anthropomorphic female piglet and her family and her peers are other animals. The show first aired on 31 May 2004. The seventh season began broadcasting on 5 March 2021. Peppa Pig has been broadcast in over 180 countries.

Peppa and her family did not wear seat belts in cars in the first two series. After receiving several complaints, Astley Baker Davies announced that all future animation would include characters wearing seat belts, and that the relevant scenes in the first two series would be re-animated to include them. Similar changes were also made to add cycle helmets to early episodes with characters riding bicycles.

The main propaganda challenge of the past couple of years has been getting children to worry about a disease that kills 82-year-olds. Depending on the whims of Science at any given moment, we need to convince children to wear masks, give up school and social life, meekly accept injections of emergency use authorized vaccines, etc.

There has been some original propaganda produced in this genre, e.g., Disney’s Goofy series that includes “How to Wear a Mask”:

(Directed by Whoopi Goldberg‘s cousin Eric Goldberg?)

But why not go back and rewrite history, as the New York Times did with the history of mRNA vaccines? Break into the cryptomines and steal enough GPUs to digitally update all of the beloved animated movies and TV shows going back to the 1930s.

Snow White, kissed without consent (because she was as unconscious as a typical American college student on a Friday night), could be approached by a prince in an N95 mask. WALL-E could vaccinate EVE as soon as she arrives on a poisoned-by-SARS-CoV-2 Earth. Timothy Q. Mouse could cooperate with a TSA search and wear a mask at all times, except when eating and drinking, while flying on Dumbo:

Depending on the current CDC guidance and community transmission levels, the masked or unmasked versions of cartoons could be shown/streamed to kids depending on their physical location.

Readers: What do you think about the idea of content that adapts to the latest advice regarding mask-wearing?

Separately, you might ask how the Peppa Pig Park is. The rides are not too exciting, so it isn’t worth going on a crowded day.

As long as we’re talking about COVID-19, it is tough to understand how so many Americans were killed by a virus that attacks the obese:

(Thank you, Apple, for the 13mm-equivalent lens that enables everyone to fit into the frame.)

There is an air-conditioned TV-watching room:

The line to get lunch at the sole in-park restaurant was epic, but this was a Sunday just a week after the park opened and, in fact, they were turning away anyone without pre-purchased tickets or annual passes. Children 2-4 can probably be entertained for hours in the playground, splash park, etc. Our kids wanted to walk across the street to Legoland after about 1.5 hours and said that they wouldn’t go back unless there were no lines.

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Two-year anniversary of National Naval Aviation Museum’s temporary coronapanic closure

Two years ago (CBS):

The National Naval Aviation Museum is temporarily closing due to concerns over coronavirus.

The museum will be open this weekend, and then close on Monday, March 16.

According to the museum’s official web site, the museum is now technically open, but practically closed because the taxpayers who have been funding it for the past two years are not allowed on the base.

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CDC says that not-tested-for-COVID-19 migrants are a low risk while U.S. citizens who travel are a high risk

“CDC revokes U.S. authority to expel migrant children” (CBS/Yahoo, 3/12/2022):

The Biden administration announced late Friday it is ending a Trump-era border deportation policy as it pertains to unaccompanied migrant children in response to a court ruling that could’ve forced officials to expel those minors without an asylum screening.

The Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which first authorized the migrant expulsions in March 2020, terminated the government’s ability to expel children who enter U.S. border custody without their parents. U.S. border officials can still use Title 42 to expel single adult migrants and families traveling with children to Mexico or their home countries.

Last week, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Pittman said the administration could no longer exempt unaccompanied children from Title 42, arguing that Texas, which challenged the exemption, was financially harmed by the placement of migrant children in the state due to medical and schooling costs.

In a notice Friday, CDC officials said they recognized the “unique vulnerabilities” of unaccompanied minors.

“In the current termination, CDC addresses the court’s concerns and has determined, after considering current public health conditions and recent developments, that expulsion of unaccompanied noncitizen children is not warranted to protect the public health,” the agency said.

(Note the headline. It is the Covidcrats who decide the size and composition of the U.S. population by determining immigration policy.)

The CDC (Science personified) says that an undocumented unmasked unvaccinated untested migrant who says “I am under 18” (by definition there is no way to verify such a claim since he/she/ze/they is undocumented) does not present a risk to public health. But the same agency tells us that U.S. citizens returning from the world’s most vaccinated countries, e.g., Portugal, are such high risks that they can’t legally begin a trip home without first getting a COVID-19 test and wearing a mask in the airports, airliner, Ubers, etc. (except while eating or drinking all of the food and beverages served by the airline, of course!)

Science is truly marvelous!

Speaking of Science, here’s the Metropolitan Museum of Art’s web site captured on 3/12/2022:

They say that they’re “following guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), New York State, and New York City” yet didn’t all of these experts on Science recently say that masks aren’t required? (except for kids in preschool)

How about the Getty in Los Angeles?

Vaccine papers are checked and masks are required because of the Department of Public Health’s Science-informed orders. Yet the referenced Department of Public Health ended its mask order on March 4. See “LA County’s indoor mask mandate ends as COVID metrics improve. Here’s what you need to know” (ABC):

Indoor mask-wearing will no longer be mandatory in Los Angeles County starting Friday thanks to revised data released by federal health officials showing a decreased impact of COVID-19 on the county’s health care system.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday officially moved the county out of its “high” virus activity category and into the “low” category. The CDC updates its county-level data every Thursday.

The CDC designations are based largely on the number of new virus-related hospital admissions and on the percentage of hospital beds being occupied by COVID-positive patients, along with a county’s overall rate of new COVID cases.

County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said that given the CDC revision of the county’s classification, a new Health Officer Order will be issued that removes the county’s long-standing mandate for people to wear masks indoors regardless of vaccination status. That move will put the county in alignment with the state, which dropped its mask mandate on Tuesday.

It is possible to Follow the Science even while doing the opposite of what Science says to do.

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Karen nervously goes to SXSW

SXSW (like Burning Man, but with better barbecue) starts today. The COVID-19 policy could have been drafted by Andrew Cuomo and his young Science-following friends. Vaccine papers will be checked, including children over the age of 5 (for whom no FDA-approved vaccine exists, only an emergency use authorized medicine). How effective does Texas Karen think that the vaccines are?

Masks will be required in all conference session rooms, exhibitions, registration, and pre-function areas, and as determined by individual venues and client spaces.

Will SXSW accept a home-printed CDC vaccine card? Or a photograph of a home-printed and home-filled-out card? No.

SXSW is using the Clear App Health Pass to verify the vaccination status of credentialed participants.

My standard question applies… if Karen is worried enough to demand vaccine papers and that people wear face rags (cloth masks will, no doubt, meet the mask requirement), why doesn’t he/she/ze/they stay home and avail him/her/zir/theirself of the promised “online viewing and participation options”?

Related:

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Face mask mandates in schools were not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 incidence or transmission

New York is following Science by forcing 2-4-year-olds to wear face masks in their preschools (see Adult unvaccinated New Yorkers can go unmasked to the strip club; 3-year-olds must be masked in pre-K). A saliva-soaked rag has been proven “protective” against an aerosol virus according to our most respected media sources, such as the NYT (example from December 2021).

It turns out that there was a natural experiment on face masks in schools over in Spain. Catalonian children 6+ were ordered to wear masks in schools while children through age 5 were allowed to breathe freely. In comparing the 5-year-olds and 6-year-olds, the researchers summarized “[face mask] mandates in schools were not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 incidence or transmission, suggesting that this intervention was not effective.”

See “Unravelling the Role of the Mandatory Use of Face Covering Masks for the Control of SARS-CoV-2 in Schools: A Quasi-Experimental Study Nested in a Population-Based Cohort in Catalonia (Spain)” (SSRN) for some Science that should not be followed. From the Abstract…

Methods: We performed a retrospective population-based study among 599,314 children aged 3 to 11 years attending preschool (3-5 years, without [face covering masks] FCM mandate) and primary education (6-11 years, with FCM mandate) with the aim of calculating the incidence of SARS-CoV-2, secondary attack rates (SAR) and the effective reproductive number (R*) for each grade during the first trimester of the 2021-2022 academic year, and analysing the differences between 5-year-old, without FCM, and 6 year-old children, with FCM.

Findings: SARS-CoV-2 incidence was significantly lower in preschool than in primary education, and an age-dependent trend was observed. Children aged 3 and 4 showed lower outcomes for all the analysed epidemiological variables, while children aged 11 had the higher values. Six-year-old children showed higher incidence than 5 year-olds (3•54% vs 3•1%; OR: 1•15 [95%CI: 1•08-1•22]) and slightly lower but not statistically significant SAR and R: SAR were 4•36% in 6 year-old children, and 4•59% in 5 year-old (IRR: 0•96 [95%CI: 0•82-1•11]); and R was 0•9 and 0•93 (OR: 0•96 [95%CI: 0•87-1•09]), respectively.

Related:

  • “Oakland school students, teachers must keep wearing masks indoors at least another month” (Mercury News, March 10, 2022): The school district decided this week the masks must stay on at least another month indoors and another two weeks outdoors as an extra precaution against another potential COVID-19 surge. The school board didn’t budge from that position at its meeting Wednesday night despite complaints from some parents who said enough is enough. The district — which includes elementary, middle and high schools — indicated it’ll reassess the indoor mask mandate around April 15 after everyone returns from spring break April 1-8. … “Children across the country have been mask optional for over a year. California has lifted the mandates for adults, for kids and say they’re lifting it for schools across the state,” a mother of three district students told the board. “Stop the craziness, follow the science.”
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Scientists gather to spread mutant SARS-CoV-2

A friend is heading off to Europe right now for a big academic conference. He’s a(n actual) scientist who lives in a Democrat-governed city and has supported mask orders, vaccine paper checks, school closures, and other Science-based interventions to stop the spread of the respiratory virus that causes COVID-19. Let’s call him “Professor Karen”.

Professor Karen’s family agrees with him regarding the merits of Following the Science. Down visiting an older relative, they came to pick me up at a southwest Florida FBO. The ramp looked like the usual “someone robbed a Gulfstream store” and there were about 60 people in the cavernous building. A sign near the front door reminded everyone that President Biden had ordered everyone at the airport to wear masks. Out of 60ish people there, Professor K’s family members were the only ones in masks.

(I can’t claim a total lack of COVID-19 concern. Afraid of the potential to infect my friend’s older relatives, I took the initiative to burn one of my at-home tests before starting up the plane for the 45-minute trip west.)

I was surprised, therefore, to learn that the good professor was heading off to Europe for a conference pulling together more than 1,000 people in his field from all of the SARS-CoV-2-infested countries of the world. In other words, a perfect environment for mutants to spread and/or form.

If he believed in the Science enough that he didn’t complain when his children’s public schools were closed for 1.5 years, why would he be a willing party to this potentially humanity-destroying event? His explanation was the virtual conferences weren’t effective, especially for poster sessions. But when it is a question of saving lives, so what? Professor Karen has tenure. He doesn’t need a conference publication to ensure a continued paycheck. People can work on better virtual conference technology. For a fraction of the cost of plane tickets to Europe, for example, everyone who was going to attend that conference could be supplied with virtual reality goggles for wandering around a poster session.

If Science tells us that people shouldn’t gather, why are scientists gathering unnecessarily?

Related:

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Boston will end its COVID-19 state of emergency on April Fools’ Day

Yesterday on boston.gov:

Mayor Michelle Wu and Dr. Bisola Ojikutu, Commissioner of Public Health and Executive Director of the Boston Public Health Commission, today announced Boston’s COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Declaration will end on April 1, 2022. The announcement follows a vote by the Boston Board of Health during their Wednesday meeting following the recommendation of Dr. Ojikutu. The Emergency Declaration has been in place since March 15, 2020.

During their meeting, Boston Public Health Commission officials provided a recommended framework for Boston Public Schools to use in determining when to lift the school masking requirement. Dr. Sarimer Sánchez, from BPHC’s Infectious Diseases Bureau, advised reviewing the school masking policy when the number of positive COVID-19 tests per day in Boston falls below 10 cases per day per 100,000 residents, while considering other COVID-19 metrics. BPHC is also encouraging development of “mask friendly” policies for students and staff, and increasing access to vaccines in school communities. The current COVID-19 daily case incidence is approximately 13 cases per 100,000 residents in Boston. The final decision on revising the school mask policy will be made by Boston Public Schools.

At least for now, the Science-informed emergency continues and children are forced to wear masks. But on April Fools’ Day, Science will say that it is safe to emerge from the bunker.

Related:

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Florida rejects Science regarding COVID-19 vaccines for healthy children

A hot war rages in Ukraine and Americans have the leisure to argue about the extent to which 5-year-olds should be given an emergency use authorized vaccine against a disease that kills the elderly.

For the past 16 months, friends who are physicians have been saying

  • vaccinate everyone over 50 or 60 (threshold varies by doc)
  • vaccinate no healthy person under 30
  • offer the COVID vaccine to people between 30 and 50/60

(See Is it ethical for a physician to vaccinate a healthy 20-year-old against COVID-19? from January 2021, for example)

Horrifyingly, it seems that a public health bureaucrat agrees with the Deplorable Docs in my social circle… “Florida to recommend against Covid-19 vaccine for healthy children” (CNN):

The CDC recommended that children get vaccinated in November, when the shot became available to most kids. Since then, about 22 million children have become fully vaccinated, including 1.1 million Florida kids.

But Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo said the state is going to issue separate guidance urging parents not to vaccinate their kids. Ladapo did not say when that guidance would become official and provided few additional details.

The Florida chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics was also critical of the decision.

“The COVID-19 vaccine is our best hope for ending the pandemic,” chapter President Dr. Lisa Gwynn said in a statement. “The Surgeon General’s comments today misrepresent the benefits of the vaccine, which has been proven to prevent serious illness, hospitalizations and long-term symptoms from COVID-19 in children and adolescents, including those who are otherwise healthy.

“The evidence is clear that when people are vaccinated, they are significantly less likely to get very sick and need hospital care. There is widespread consensus among medical and public health experts about the life-saving benefits of this vaccine.”

Ordinarily, CNN loves to celebrate immigrant success stories. In the case of the above-cited Science-rejecter, according to Wikipedia, the journey began with five years of unmasked childhood in Nigeria, migration to the U.S., and an education at Harvard Medical School. In addition to his M.D., Dr. Ladapo holds a Ph.D. in health policy from Harvard, yet CNN does not consider this migration journey worth highlighting.

From Friday, a mother and child who narrowly escaped a New York tourist’s attempt to vaccinate them both:

(in front of the electric utility’s (free) manatee lagoon)

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Adult unvaccinated New Yorkers can go unmasked to the strip club; 3-year-olds must be masked in pre-K

“‘It’s time to reopen our city’: N.Y.C. mayor lifts a school mask mandate and indoor vaccination rules.” (New York Times, 3/4/2022):

Mayor Eric Adams said on Friday that he was officially ending New York City’s mask mandate for public schools and a proof-of-vaccination requirement for indoor dining, gyms and entertainment venues, a significant moment for a city that was once an epicenter of the pandemic.

Mr. Adams made the announcement in Times Square in Manhattan and said it was part of his efforts to reopen New York after a steep drop in coronavirus cases.

In other words, Science says that if you know that an intervention (mask orders and vaccine coercion) works the smartest thing to do is terminate that intervention to let the virus grow exponentially again. Thanks to Science, an adult New Yorker who has refused to accept the Sacrament of Fauci can mingle unmasked in strip clubs (watch for unexpected costs, though!), pack unmasked and unvaccinated into Madison Square Garden with 20,000+ potentially unvaccinated spectators, etc.

How about 3-year-olds? Can they now breathe freely during their DUPLO time? No:

Starting on Monday, students will no longer have to wear masks indoors at public schools. Children under 5 must continue to wear masks because they are not yet eligible for vaccination.

Related:

  • “The best strip clubs in NYC” (TimeOut, with 2016 prices): This 10,000-square-foot club took over the old Scores space, but it’s a much classier affair: … ($400 gets you 30 minutes of alone time) … Larry Flynt’s Hustler Club empire aims to be classy and approachable … Lap dance prices are equivalent to other clubs in the city; massages will run you about $100. … All-you-can-eat sushi served on a naked woman in its private Kabuki room ($250 per person).
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