Category: Coronaplague

Since April, my Facebook feed has been alive with posts of the form “I did X while social distancing.” These are from people who live in places where social distancing is required by law. Some examples:

• Got to have an (outdoor, socially distanced) visit with my grandma today! (from someone who considers herself an independent thinker)
• Today I attended a socially distanced picnic with the faculty at CAP DU…
• Lovely day for socially-distanced apple-picking (above pictures of masked apple pickers)
• Made it out for a socially distanced, masked, and peaceful demonstration re: the future livelihood of the Pt Reyes Tule Elk….
• Socially distanced at the beach. (above pictures of children at a beach)
• … was able to have a socially distanced dinner with him outside at a restaurant last night. (above pictures of mother and adult son, right next to each other with no masks)
• It was a great weekend of socially distanced outdoor time…

We don’t see this in other domains where a person’s failure to comply with the law could have a statistical chance of killing others. Prior to coronapanic, people didn’t post the following, for example:

• how do you like my new haircut? obeyed speed limit to/from the barber shop
• cooked lasagna for friends; washed hands prior to cooking to prevent transmission of norovirus and other potentially lethal pathogens
• wonderful meal with my cousins (served tofu and broccoli because I don’t want them to die from complications of type 2 diabetes)
• enjoyed walk around neighborhood; held kids’ hands when crossing street so they didn’t get run over
• nice flight to Martha’s Vineyard; made sure to fuel airplane prior to departure and ran checklists

I don’t think we can say that these folks are posting their mask and social distance virtue in order to influence others. They’ve already defriended anyone who dares to say that the W.H.O.’s advice through early June 2020 (masks for the general public won’t help) was correct. So the only people who are likely to be reading these posts are (a) living in states where masks and social distancing are required by law and disobedience is punishable via arrests, imprisonment, and fines, and (b) already in agreement with the idea of salvation through social distancing and masks.

Nearly 3 million Americans die in a typical year from various causes. Why is it only COVID-19 that motivates people to declare their virtuous attempts to reduce deaths via some sort of action?

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California can legitimately claim to be the Land of Karen. No group of Americans has ever been more active in proclaiming their own superiority on a wide range of political issues. When coronaplague hit, therefore, it was only natural that California Karens dominated Facebook with tales of their superior shutdown and greater vigilance regarding masks. Their heroic and intelligent human action kept the virus from doing what it had done in other states.

When Californians weren’t celebrating their own achievements in prevailing in their self-declared war on coronavirus, they would spend a lot of time gleefully highlighting the high rate of plague in South Dakota, whose governor dared to deny their most cherished belief, i.e., that humans are in charge of the virus and can decide how prevalent infection will be. While the plague raged in South Dakota, the Media of the Church of Shutdown was packed with articles about the stupidity of South Dakotans, Republicans in general, and Kristi Noem in particular.

Today’s plague map from the CDC (cases within the preceding week/100,000 population):

The righteous of California were the 4th most plagued Americans, with 101 daily cases per 100,000 (averaged over the preceding 7 days). Wicked mask-denying never-shut South Dakotans? 66/100k. Righteous masked-and-shut folks in Maskachusetts? 68/100,000. Trump voters in Florida? 50 cases per 100,000.

Californians, in other words, are proving the Swedish MD/PhDS right, i.e., continental non-Asian countries can shut down if they want, but they probably won’t be special when the final stats are tabulated.

Who wants to bet on the number of U.S. media articles that will point out that the California current case rate, despite more than half a year of masks, exceeds that of no-mask-order South Dakota or that of no-masks-at-all Sweden?

Related:

• states ranked by COVID-19 death rate (cumulative), showing that California still has a long way to go to catch up to champions New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts
• Silicon Valley Shutdown Karens move into bigger houses
• speaking of Sweden, they’re still on track to have a similar death rate for 2020 compared to 2010 (slightly more deaths; somewhat larger population in the denominator), thus proving the Swedish MD/PhDs correct when they said most deaths tagged to COVID-19 were among those already likely to die in 2020

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Our media and my Facebook feed are both jammed with images of health care workers getting vaccinated against COVID-19 (but a lot of them should be among the roughly one third of Americans who’ve already had the infection).

“Mass. Prisoners Among The First To Get COVID Vaccines” (WBUR):

Among those first in line for the COVID-19 vaccine in Massachusetts are correction workers and the nearly 13,000 people incarcerated in jails and prisons in the state.

Massachusetts is one of six states to specifically include prisoners in the first phase of vaccinations…

Why no photos of happy convicts?

(Separately, does this make sense? Why aren’t prisoners likely to be among the 100+ million Americans who’ve already had at least an asymptomatic infection? Would it be more efficient to find Mask Karens whose phone mobility data show that they’ve been hiding in bunkers and give them the vaccine first? (also weight the virtuousness of their Facebook posts and assume that those who’ve been promoting mask use are the least likely to have become immune the natural way))

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Suppose that you’re slightly fatter than the ordinarily chubby American (average BMI of 27, which is “overweight”). Maybe your BMI is 28.5, for example. Would it make sense to chow down at illegal holiday gatherings this year in hopes of hitting an “obese” BMI of 30? At that point, you could get priority for the COVID-19 vaccine.

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To the Swedish MD/PhDs, e.g., Johan Giesecke and Anders Tegnell, most of the world’s reaction to coronavirus is irrational panic. To the Karens with whom I am friends on Facebook, hiding in a bunker while waiting for the next batch of governors’ orders is an entirely rational, even “scientific”, response to a disease that has killed a significant number of people.

I wonder if we can look at how Americans respond to influenza as a way to determine how much of the COVID-19 shutdown is rationally motivated.

Influenza kills 80,000 Americans, mostly elderly, in a typical “bad” year and up to 225,000 (population-adjusted) in an exceptional year, such as 1957-58. Influenza infection can also leave victims with serious long-term health effects, such as impaired heart function. From the CDC:

Sinus and ear infections are examples of moderate complications from flu, while pneumonia is a serious flu complication that can result from either influenza virus infection alone or from co-infection of flu virus and bacteria. Other possible serious complications triggered by flu can include inflammation of the heart (myocarditis), brain (encephalitis) or muscle (myositis, rhabdomyolysis) tissues, and multi-organ failure (for example, respiratory and kidney failure). Flu virus infection of the respiratory tract can trigger an extreme inflammatory response in the body and can lead to sepsis, the body’s life-threatening response to infection. Flu also can make chronic medical problems worse. For example, people with asthma may experience asthma attacks while they have flu, and people with chronic heart disease may experience a worsening of this condition triggered by flu.

So let’s says that COVID-19 is 5X as bad, for both lethality and long-term effects on survivors, as a bad flu.

What happens when the flu season arrives in the U.S.? Do we shut down schools in communities where flu is “spiking”? Do young healthy adults don masks, saying that though they aren’t at risk they want to protect the elderly? Do people work from home whenever they’re able to? Do we establish any limits on retail or restaurant capacity, ban indoor dining, or limit hours?

In my experience, the answer to all of the above is “No.” From what I have seen, Americans tape up “It’s flu season; wash your hands” signs in a few places and continue with life as usual.

A rational and consistent group of humans, therefore, would respond to COVID-19 with something like 5X the actions taken during flu season. We would see 5X as many “wash your hands” signs. Children who lost 3 minutes of schooling during flu season (time spent washing hands instead of studying) would lose 15 minutes of schooling during COVID-19. Or maybe two windows would be opened in every classroom and mixing of students in the cafeteria would be curtailed in favor of lunch at desks. Instead, the reaction is 120X. Children lose 360 minutes of schooling (school entirely shut down) per day rather than 3 minutes. Children lose their social life, playgrounds, etc.

The same analysis could be done for adults. If they’re hiding in their bunkers 5 days per week currently, that would be consistent with their flu season response if they had previously hid 1 day per week during flu season.

Our universities are always in the vanguard…

From the above article, the 20th century’s best ideas are alive and well:

Typical penalties include writing letters of apology, performing community service projects, meeting with advisers, and completing educational research papers about public health—not to mention the shame most feel after having been shown to have placed their fellow students at risk.

Readers: Does the above way of looking at coronapanic make sense?

Related:

• Why do we care about COVID-19 deaths more than driving-related deaths? (a similar analysis; we never spent serious effort or money to cut traffic deaths, e.g., by reengineering roads and intersections, despite the fact that more lives and far more life-years are lost due to our mostly non-essential trips)
• Some folks who are not all that panicked: California legislators jet off to Maui for a 100-person conference right after Governor Newsom tells the California rabble not to travel (see “California lawmakers head to Maui with lobbyists despite pandemic, travel warnings” (Politico) and also LA Times)

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A variety of friends on Facebook (mostly identifying as “women” and in their 50s) have been posting their concern regarding the wicked Swedes running out of ICU capacity, implicitly due to their failure to don the Church of Shutdown’s hijab and continuing to run (unmasked!) schools for everyone under 16.

(For the first time in the year since Covid-19 reached the U.S./Europe, the Swedes have some real restrictions, e.g., movie theaters and similar large “public” gatherings are shut down; our Swedish helicopter instructors says that his mom’s hair salon has been open continuously, however, and remains open. His parents still don’t own a mask. They would be discouraged from hosting a party for 30 people at their house, but it would not be illegal for them to do so. Unlike in Maskachusetts, Swedes need not tell the government when they’ve traveled or to where nor do they need to submit medical records to government authorities “on request”.)

An example post: “ICUs in Stockholm reach 99 percent capacity: report” (The Hill).

In the best American fashion, this article presents all of the information out of context. How many ICU beds are there in Sweden? How does that compare to what we have here in the U.S.? How does the number of Covid-19 patients in the ICU compare to what Sweden had back in the spring of 2020?

First, it seems that the number of ICU beds occupied by Covid-19 patients is actually only about half what it was during the April 2020 peak:

How does 259 ICU patients with Covid-19 in wicked Sweden compare to the situation in place that is a model of shutdown (9 months) and masks (7-8 months)? Maskachusetts currently has 309 Covid-19 patients in the ICU (state dashboard) or 1.7X the rate when adjusted for population.

Second, it looks as though Swedes don’t have that many hospital beds that they designated as “ICU”. Reuters, under a headline that directly contradicts the above (“ICU bends not full”):

Sweden still has 148 unoccupied beds in intensive care wards nationwide, corresponding to 22% free capacity, said Irene Nilsson-Carlsson, senior public health adviser at the National Health Board.

In other words, the entire country of more than 10 million people has about 675 hospital beds designated as “ICU”.

How does this compare to the U.S.? Here in Maskachusetts, population 7 million, we have 1,500 “ICU” beds in ordinary times and that is boosted to 2,700 for a “surge” (boston.com). Sweden would need 4,000 ICU beds to have the same number per person as Massachusetts.

How about the rest of the U.S.? It looks as though 70,000 adult ICU beds is the baseline (aha.org). That’s 212 beds per million residents of the U.S. Sweden has 66 ICU beds per million residents.

So… even without coronavirus, if the Swedes organized medicine the way that we do, 100 percent full ICU in Sweden would correspond to 31 percent full in the U.S.

See also Infidels in Sweden are refusing to die (April 21):

For True Believers in the Church of Shutdown, what Sweden is doing is merely a variant form of their own religion, just as Hinduism was for the Portuguese who spent an entire summer on the west coast of India in the late 15th century. So strong was their belief in Christianity that they believed Hindu temples to be churches (and Ganesha was Jesus with a big Jewish nose?). They attended Hindu religious rituals and believed that they were observing Christian practices.

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A scientific analysis of the effects of California’s Santa Clara County’s mask order of April 17.

Source: Karl Dierenbach

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Maskachusetts is the 3rd most restricted state in the U.S. (WalletHub ranking). Florida is ranked #11 for freedom. Yet the latest map from covidexitstrategy.org, which our state officials use to decide cleanliness/godliness for travel order purposes, shows that no-mask-order Florida has 427 new cases of COVID-19 per million residents while fully-masked-since-May Massachusetts has 704 new cases per million (slightly lower positivity rate, but that could simply be due to the fact that universities here are constantly testing the rich white locked-in students and thus pumping up the denominator).

If the God of Shutdown is a just god, and the people of Florida have been flouting the church dogma of shutdown+masks, aren’t we forced to conclude that the God of Shutdown has a special love for Floridians?

Related:

• On the third hand, “No Excess Deaths In Massachusetts Over the Past Six Months” (from our state’s boards of health): This means that for any one currently living in Massachusetts that the probability of dying from any cause has been equal to or lower than during the previous seven years. Does this sound like a strange statistic given all that you have heard about the increased death rates due to COVID-19 during the past six months? Given this fact, why are so many individuals more afraid of dying from COVID-19 than any other cause? The answer is that numbers reported without proper adjustments, missing critical denominators or taken out of context altogether lend themselves to false interpretation. [This page has some stats and you can adjust to see different states; Florida has roughly the number of expected deaths from all causes currently.]
• Optimum COVID-19 American lifestyle: Florida in winter; Maine in summer?

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“Health Care Workers Plead With Americans To Take Pandemic More Seriously” (NPR):

Health workers and hospitals already strained by the pandemic are increasingly making direct appeals to the public with open letters, asking people to mask up and stay at home this holiday season.

I was chatting this evening with our stealth author of Medical School 2020. He’s working 12-hour shifts at a hospital where roughly 8 percent of the beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients. “Remember that if someone comes in with appendicitis and happens to test positive, they become a ‘COVID-19 patient’ in our census,” he said.

How seriously do frontline health care workers take the pandemic? Our mole in the system described a doc and nurse couple electing to take a mid-November vacation in Aruba. They got on a flight that was 100-percent full, thus voluntarily spending hours sharing a narrow cylinder of air with 150+ other humans. When they got off the plane, they were subjected to screening questions by the Aruban authorities. Instead of admitting that they worked in a hospital every day, they said that they “worked in biochem.” On reaching the (packed) resort, they said “The majority of the other guests were health care workers” (i.e., there were additional hundreds of doctors, nurses, etc. who had chosen to take the risk of contracting COVID-19 at the jammed airports or on the full flights).

(Separately, should COVID-19 patients be in the hospital to begin with? It is not like having a heart attack or getting into a car accident where the doctors have effective treatments to offer. Why aren’t they at home with an oxygen bottle and a CPAP machine or high-flow nasal cannula? A med school professor friend:

Many things could be done from home cheaper and safer but we don’t have the infrastructure or culture. Home model kills the rationale for the hospital cash cow.

Our Medical School 2020 author:

I agree that outside of severe Covid, most of the interventions can be done at home — we send patients home with up to 5 L O2 for bad COPD. It somewhat reminds me of the slow transition from inpatient to outpatient management for other conditions, e.g., deep ventous thromobosis (“blood clots in the legs”) that now is managed with oral blood thinners at home instead of in the hospital. … There are really only a few interventions that we do for covid19 — low and high flow oxygen supplementation, noninvasive (think CPAP) or invasive mechanical ventilation, steroids (actually a good intervention for mechanically ventilated patients — 30 vs 40 percent 1-month mortality) and remdesivir (only benefit shown in low O2 patients with decrease in hospital stay of 10 vs 15 days in small study). … I agree that the only difference for non-severe covid infections between home versus inpatient is just getting telemetry monitoring and daily labs in the hope of catching worsening pulmonary function or prognostication of the weird complications of covid (e.g., heart attacks, blood clots). Unsure of our prognostic ability to guess who will worsen versus who will improve early on in the course (uptodate states the shortness of breath from covid19 occurs up to 8 days after symptom onset). Perhaps utilizing some Apple Watches and Fitbits over those 8 days might save some hospital beds.

See “A Covid-19 Lesson: Some Seriously Ill Patients Can Be Treated at Home” (NYT, July 18) for a story about a hospital that innovated.)

Is #StayHomeSaveLives the new #TakeTheBusSaveThePlanet? Classically, everyone agrees that it would be a good idea if other people took the bus or the subway, thus reducing traffic congestion and pollution.

From the official Aruba tourism site:

(I would love to go right now, but despite my reputation for skepticism regarding coronapanic, I would not voluntarily get on a commercial airline with all seats full.)

Related:

• “California lawmakers head to Maui with lobbyists despite pandemic, travel warnings” (Politico): Roughly 100 people from four states converged at the Fairmont Kea Lani for a four-day legislative conference organized by the Independent Voter Project, said the group’s chair and executive director, Dan Howle.

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