Category: Coronapanic

How is coronaplague down in Brazil? (and the rest of the IHME predictions)

by philg

Yesterday was August 4, 2020, the date on which the IMHE prophecies were supposed to be proven out. Let’s see how the reality compared to the June 10 prediction. In “Wicked Brazilians will take the place of the wicked Swedes in forecasts of doom?” (June 13) I noted that 5,248 Brazilians were forecast to be killed by Covid-19 yesterday.

What does WHO say about the actual number? It was 541 yesterday (August 4), 1,088 the day before (August 3), 1,212 on Sunday, August 2, 1,129 on Saturday, August 1., and 1,595 on July 31. Here’s my prediction in full:

My perspective is a “scientific” one. In other words, I will look at one or two data points and then extrapolate wildly. From the chart below, it looks like the non-virtuous Brazilians have, by dint of doing nothing, already “flattened the curve” to a large extent. So my first scientific observation (i.e., guess) is that the death rate on August 4, 2020 will be roughly the same as it is today. On the other hand, the virus has already killed a lot of the easiest-to-kill Brazilians. Therefore, the number should be a little lower. On the third hand, General Winter is fighting alongside the coronavirus in parts of Brazil. If the latter two factors cancel out, the number of deaths tagged to Covid-19 in Brazil on August 4 should be 1,274 (the number from yesterday’s WHO report).

Summary of the above: prediction of a plateau and therefore 1,274 deaths yesterday. So I’m off by more than 2X for the actual number, but the latest graph from IHME (a smoothed curve) does look vaguely plateau-esque, so perhaps I can claim victory on the shape?

Alex guessed 1,219 following YouYang Gu’s model. ajm did an interesting analysis starting from the Diamond Princess data and came up with 1,800. Henry went with IHME, but cut their 5,248 estimate by 50 percent due to his faith in the Sacrament of Masks. Sig came up with a technical analysis approach, as they say on Wall Street:

I think the pattern is quite clear here: after the peak it is a log-linear descent, with always the same slope. No need for science or following news… (Italy has a step there, they probably transitioned to a different counting method.) So, extrapolating for Brazil, which looks like being at the peak, to 130 days, which would be beginning of August in that case, and adjust for population, I arrive at 300 “daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths”. Turns out SK already bet that, so I’ll go for 299.

The winner… SK! “My assumption it will fizzle our even more. My prediction is 300. Definitely less than 900.”

So… IHME was off by 10X (but maybe only 5X if we smooth the data?). I was off by 2.5X. When is it time to acknowledge that the virus is smarter than we are?

How about the rest of the IHME predictions? Back in April they were predicting 13,259 deaths for Sweden by August 4. The WHO figure from yesterday’s report is 5,744 (i.e., off by 2.5X). The same April post carried a prediction of 6,739 deaths for Massachusetts through August 4. That was without the assumption that the state would adopt universal masking. We did mask up and… the actual number was 8,436 (mass.gov).

In late March, IHME predicted 80,000 deaths for the U.S. through August 4, 2020, with a 95% confidence interval of 40,000 to 160,000. The WHO report number is 154,226. So they were off by almost 2X, but not so far off as to call their methodology into question.

Related:

An update of the big chart from the previous post:

Full post, including comments

If K-12 schools will be online-only, why not start right now?

by philg

“Most California Schools Unlikely To Open In Fall Under New State Rules” (NPR):

Most California schools may remain closed when the academic year begins in the fall, according to new state directives, with a majority of campuses likely having to shift to distance-learning instead.

The new requirements stipulate how and when schools may reopen for in-person learning when the academic school year begin. … Under the new rules, a county must also not be on a list of counties being monitored for rising coronavirus infections. Thirty-two of the states 58 counties currently don’t hit that benchmark. To open schools for in-person instruction, those counties would have to be off that list for 14 consecutive days, according to the directives.

The directives are on the heels of announcements that some of the state’s largest districts had already decided to enter the academic year with no in-person classes. Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco all recently said they planned online-only learning when students returned.

This makes sense for a population whose only goal in life is avoiding Covid-19 infection. But why wait for the fall? Given that students already missed a lot academically during what would have been the spring semester, wouldn’t it make sense for K-12 to start up right now for any student who wants to try to catch up? Supposedly, the schools and teachers that did a lame job with online education in June will be doing an awesome job in September. But why not start with the awesomeness tomorrow, for example?

Related:

Full post, including comments

Karen’s Mask Report from Maskachusetts

by philg

In early June I posted “Karen’s Mask Law Compliance Update (Boston to Minneapolis and back)” (this trip plus a trip to the local supermarket would now be illegal under the new Maskachusetts rules!). Here’s an update based on a rare day out and about.

When not filled with arguments about how to pay for the most expensive (per student) school ever to be constructed in the United States, our righteous suburb (rich in BLM and Rainbow flags, if not in people who identify as persons of color or members of the LGBTQIA+ community) is filled with arguments about the best approach to coronapanic. The latest furor concerns the lethal Covid-19-spreading properties of Canis familiaris. Touched someone else’s dog? Dig yourself a grave. A proposed solution is that our town will one day see reason and pass a leash law to reduce the chance of human-canine encounters.

Thus, it was with some trepidation that I took Mindy the Crippler for her first post-plague visit to the grooming salon. If our neighbors are right, the groomers should all be dead. Folks in the salon apparently did not get the memo regarding the hazards of touching dogs and, remarkably, have failed to die on schedule. While Mindy was having her spa treatment, I met a couple of friends for a rare indoor dining experience at a Panera-style restaurant (order at counter; food delivered to table). They have failed to adapt to coronaplague by augmenting the handful of outdoor tables and it was super hot outside so we ate indoors.

We’re in Month 5 of shutdown here and Month 3 of the universal mask law. Everyone seemed to be attempting to wear masks, but, just as the Swedish MD/PhDs predicted, once they were masked they made little attempt to keep a 6′ social distance. There were a fair number of masks-under-noses as well. We’re spending $trillions on things like $600/week handouts to people who became unemployed after the License Raj made it illegal to operate restaurants. But there doesn’t seem to be any money for adaptions that would contribute to long-run plague reduction (like my pet idea for schools). For example, cruise ships usually have handwashing sinks near the entrance to restaurants. Not this restaurant. If we believe the W.H.O. guidance on mask usage (early June 2020 edition of “science”!), the restaurant should have had a sink outside near the outdoor tables and an indoor sink that didn’t require going into a restroom. After all, masks are effective only when combined with handwashing, so we were told by W.H.O. But, in fact, there were no sinks for customers other than ones in the restrooms.

I took Senior Management’s car for a state inspection on the way back to the groomer. None of the guys at the gas station were wearing masks when working in the bay or outdoors, but put them on (without washing hands!) when going inside the shop to run credit cards with customers.

Mindy wasn’t quite ready, so it was necessary to kill time at Dunkin’ Donuts. The women behind the counter were both wearing masks… underneath their noses. Then the hardware store to buy three bottles of drain cleaner to address a slow kitchen sink. “Why do you need three bottles?” asked the partially masked woman in the store? “One thing I have learned from our government is that when something doesn’t work, keep repeating it over and over.” (The grease clog and a small leak in the elbow were eventually solved by a plumber for $370, further evidence that owning property in the U.S. is stupid, except for the exceptionally capable who can do everything themselves.)

A Sunday trip via Cirrus to Martha’s Vineyard (one of the few places to which Maskachusetts residents can legally travel to/from) showed that the island is all-in on masks (“Wear a Mask, Make a Difference” says the sign, contradicting the W.H.O.’s advice through early June and the MD/PhDs in Sweden):

Note the mask directives for boarding the ferry to Chappaquiddick. Perhaps if Ted Kennedy had worn a mask, American politics would have gone in a different direction! (my Cape Cod photos include historical photos of the inn where Teddy K stayed and the motel room where Mary Jo Kopechne stayed).

Two miles away…

I still wonder if having customers inside retail stores makes sense in a country where the only goal is avoiding COVID-19. As noted in “Train Americans to use masks the way that surgeons do or restructure the physical environment?”, why can’t stores go back to their 18th century roots: Customer enters spacious front part of shop and asks for item. Shopkeeper goes into jammed back part shelves to retrieve requested item. (tweak so that customer never goes into the store itself, but stays outside and transacts business over a counter)

We’re afraid of getting Covid-19 from surfaces, right? (hence the constant sanitizing) We’re also afraid of getting Covid-19 from sharing air. How can it make sense to put the entire country at risk by continuing to operate retail stores as they were configured in the pre-Covid-19 age?

Related:

  • “Masks are pointless, says Sweden’s maverick chief medic” (Financial Review): “Because from a medical perspective there is no proven effectiveness of masks, the cabinet has decided that there will be no national obligation for wearing non-medical masks,” said Medical Care Minister Tamara van Ark. (Where is the respect for #Science?)
Full post, including comments

Why hold elections in non-swing states?

by philg

A Facebook Mask Karen (his profile picture is at least 50 percent face covering) highlighted “Coronavirus creates election worker shortage ahead of November” (Politico): “Local election authorities typically rely on older volunteers, who are dropping out in higher numbers over coronavirus fears.”

This prompted me to wonder why we would have an election at all here in Maskachusetts. Most candidates will he running unopposed. For the remainder, the outcome is already known. Why have people gather to infect each other when there is nothing to be decided?

Readers: What is the point of a November election in one-party states such as California, New York, et al.? If #BecauseEmergency is sufficient reason to cancel what used to be Constitution rights that had some value (e.g., the rights for young healthy people to receive an education, assemble and socialize, go to work, etc.), why isn’t #BecauseEmergency sufficient reason to cancel a valueless right (to vote in a non-primary election in a non-swing state)?

If we insist on some kind of count, we could do it safely with a drive-by inspection of lawn signs. Every “Hate Has No Home Here” sign can be counted as a vote fore Joe Biden:

Anyone who has the temerity to place a Donald Trump on a lawn in our town will typically find that the neighbors correct the mistake within a few days. Votes for Trump cannot therefore be via a sign with the hated dictator’s name on it. Maybe a yard sign like this would be sufficiently subtle?

Readers: What is the point of holding the November election in the states that overwhelmingly favor one party?

Full post, including comments

Security Theater intersection with Coronapanic Theater: illegal to fly over an empty stadium

by philg

The Boston Red Sox are playing in Fenway Park again, but fans aren’t allowed into the stadium. After the jihad of 9/11, the major league sports teams were able to realize their dream of blocking banner-towing airplanes from flying over stadiums. The banner-towers were competing with the teams for in-stadium advertising dollars. The dream of eliminating this competition had been out of reach for decades due to a legal/FAA doctrine that airspace belongs to the public and therefore the teams couldn’t own the airspace above their stadiums.

After 9/11, the teams got Congress to lean on the FAA to put in a “temporary flight restriction” (the temporary restriction will soon turn 20 years of age!) forbidding all aircraft from overflying within 3 nautical miles and 3,000′ (of course, a helicopter 3 miles away and at a normal helicopter cruising altitude would not really be an “overflight” since it wouldn’t be visible from the stadium). This is in the name of “security”, though it is unclear what the practical effect could be on security since the typical terrorist is already violating a variety of regulations and laws by carrying out a terrorist act.

Given that the stadiums are 99 percent empty, has the rule been relaxed? No! So we’re not allowed to do our helicopter tours over Boston (we don’t need to fly over Fenway Park, but it is quite close to the center of the city, so a Fenway TFR makes the tour essentially impossible). Families heading to Cape Cod in little planes won’t be able to take the conventional shortcut through Boston and over Logan Airport.

This was sold as a way to keep a determined jihadi from wiping out 30,000+ people with a Cessna 172 or similar (though, as noted above, it was unclear how it ever could have worked to achieve that end). But now it is being applied to ensuring security for a handful of baseball players who are all alone in the stadium.

Related:

  • “Baseball Is Playing for Its Life, and Ours” (NYT, August 2): protected from attack by family Cessnas and four-seat Robinsons, the young healthy baseball players are nonetheless besieged by a virus whose victims average 82 years of age with underlying health conditions. “Baseball was entering the war against the pandemic, and the world was positioned to benefit from the information that would be gathered. The league, armed to the teeth with power and privilege, access to testing, cash flow, precision data collection, and high-powered, lower-risk athletes playing outdoors, was supposed to prevail. … baseball and other sports will help get us there by aggressively gathering information about the risks we are all facing. In the end, this will be prove to be more valuable than anything normalcy can provide. We are playing to survive.” (i.e., we will learn more from Major League Baseball than from all of the MD/PhDs working for the Swedish government!)
Full post, including comments

Fanny pack sales will get a boost from coronapanic?

by philg

Americans have spent months at home, lounging in sweats and stretchy shorts while watching television and/or playing with their phones. Our heroes get off the sofa only for periodic dives into the fridge for waist-expanding calories.

Will we be able to tolerate the discomfort of ordinary pants and belts ever again? If not, how will we carry wallets, keys, and phones? Running pants aren’t adapted for this application. Enter… the fanny pack!

Readers: Will there be a fanny pack (or “waist pack”) boom as soon as we have some need to leave our houses?

Related:

Full post, including comments

Build downdraft paint booths for K-12 schools?

by philg

Unionized American school teachers refuse to work unless they can be guaranteed not to get coronaplague from the students. Words are not going to soothe these concerned souls. “School closures ‘a mistake’ as no teachers infected in classroom” (Times of London, July 22):

Scientists are yet to find a single confirmed case of a teacher catching coronavirus from a pupil anywhere in the world, a leading epidemiologist has said.

Mark Woolhouse, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Edinburgh University, offered reassurance to staff preparing for the full reopening of schools next month.

I predict that this won’t result in a single American school opening up for business as usual. Zero cases is one case too many!

Americans apparently did not like my previous pet idea: “Plague-proof Florida and Texas with shaded outdoor classrooms?”

Thus, it is time for another pet idea! This one comes from the world of aircraft and automobile painting: pull student exhaust air down through the classroom floor. The technology for downdraft paint booths is highly advanced (example). They have been built large enough to paint a Gulfstream. Below are a couple of photos from West Star Aviation, which paints some very big airplanes indeed. At right is your humble author next to some of the air filters, against which coronavirus would stand no chance.

Presumably the airflow wouldn’t have to be as powerful for a classroom as for a paint booth. Air conditioning systems have been implicated in spreading coronaplague among adults, right? Why not a system for schools in which (a) each classroom has its own HVAC system, (b) there are 8-12 outlets in the ceiling, and (c) there are 8-12 exhaust outlets in the floor? For maximum safety, the system would have no recirculation.

(Separately, as long as we’re on the topic of aircraft paint, at West Star I noticed that all of the people working in the 100-degree hangars sanding the paint off jets seemed to identify as “men” while there were folks appearing to identify as “women” working in air-conditioned offices and comfortably sitting in chairs.)

Full post, including comments

Covid-19 will go away if we just keep our schools closed

by philg

Good news from the Department of Correlation DOES Equal Causation: if we keep our schools closed, coronavirus will go away and leave us alone. From the maximally prestigious JAMA: “Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US”

Some excerpts:

All 50 states closed schools between March 13, 2020, and March 23, 2020.

The absolute effects associated with school closure during the 26-day period after school closure (days 17-42), which were calculated using model estimates with the assumption of linear growth, yielded 638.7 cases per 100 000 that would have occurred if schools had remained open (Table 3). Compared with the 214.8 cases per 100 000 estimated from the school closure model, the absolute difference associated with school closure was 423.9 (95% CI, 375.0 to 463.7) cases per 100 000.

In March 2020, states enacted multiple nonpharmaceutical interventions, including closing schools, nonessential businesses, and restaurants and bars, and prohibiting large gatherings, to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread and prevent death. Completely isolating the effects of any single nonpharmaceutical intervention is impossible because recommendations for increased handwashing, cleaning, and wearing of masks evolved simultaneously. Measured COVID-19 incidence also was affected by testing availability, which was limited early in the pandemic and varied nationally.

The authors reject the “Flatten the Curve” dogma as it was explained to us back in March. Infections are not merely delayed. They are prevented. The shutdown was “to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread and prevent death” and “school closure may be effective in curbing SARS-CoV-2 spread and preventing deaths during future outbreaks.”

Should we be more afraid of touching a dog with coronaplague in his/her/zir/their fur (an often-voiced concern of neighbors here in the Boston area) or a child?

Studies have documented lower attack rates for children, and children comprise a small proportion of documented infections. Children may be less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, studies have documented viral shedding in asymptomatic children.

#AbundanceOfCaution time! #KeepThemSafeKeepSchoolsShut!

If you’re going to criticize this paper, keep in mind that, based on the journal, this is the absolute pinnacle of American medical thinking! I would like to re-title the paper, though, even if I don’t feel distinguished enough to criticize the statistical methods employed. Philip’s title for this work: “We closed our schools in March 2020 and coronavirus has hardly bothered us since then.”

Below, a picture of something we won’t be doing any time soon… bringing one of the flight school helicopters to a local school and explaining to the youngsters how it flies.

Related:

  • “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”
  • “Teachers Are Wary of Returning to Class, and Online Instruction Too” (NYT, July 29): Unions are threatening to strike if classrooms reopen, but are also pushing to limit live remote teaching. Their demands will shape pandemic education. … remote learning failed many children this spring, deepening achievement gaps by race and income. … one of the stickiest points of contention being how many hours per day teachers should be required to teach live via video. … a full school day over video would not be feasible for either students or teachers (although some private schools have embraced it).
Full post, including comments

Visual artists will switch to outdoor sculpture due to plague?

by philg

With art museums closed or compromised (regulated pre-arranged visit times, masks, etc.) and art galleries damaged by the destruction of American retail, will visual artists switch to outdoor sculpture?

If most people with money flee the cities to suburban or country estates, and then spend a lot of time imprisoned in their yards, that’s a big market for attractive sculpture, right?

From the Storm King Art Center, now somewhat reopened (good day trip due to being adjacent to a near-infinite-length runway at KSWF; Dia:Beacon will reopen August 7):

(you may be able to park next to Donald Trump’s family Boeing 757 at KSWF, which is where it lives)

Full post, including comments

Why hasn’t coronavirus been able to succeed in Laos, Vietnam, or Cambodia?

by philg

From The Google:

  • Vietnam population: 95 million
  • Laos population: 7 million
  • Cambodia population: 16 million

Number of deaths from Covid-19 so far among these nearly 120 million people? WHO data: 0.

People in these three countries can be smarter than Americans and Europeans, certainly. So perhaps they have managed coronaplague better than Americans and Europeans. But is it reasonable to assume that they’re infinitely smarter? That’s the assumption that we would need to explain an actual death rate of 0.

Maybe these countries are not good at testing and diagnosing Covid-19 compared to Americans and Europeans. But can they be infinitely bad at testing and diagnosing? That’s the assumption that we would need to explain a reported death rate of 0.

Unlike New Zealand and some similar success stories featured in our media, these countries are not islands, protected from immigrating viruses by a Trump-style wall of ocean. They are snuggled up against China, the original source of the “non-Chinese virus”. China is a big trading partner for these countries.

Readers: What could account for 0 deaths out of 120 million population? A mostly immune population due to previous exposure to a similar virus?

Full post, including comments