Category: Coronapanic

From The Accidental President: Harry S. Truman and the Four Months That Changed the World (A.J. Baime)

General H. H. “Hap” Arnold, head of the army air forces, had gambled $3 billion—and his entire career—on the development of the B-29 Superfortress. (The B-29 program cost taxpayers considerably more than the Manhattan Project did.)

The first incendiary mission was flown March 9–10, using bombs loaded with white phosphorus and napalm; the latter substance was a new highly flammable fuel gel developed in a Harvard laboratory. The B-29 crews had been instructed on the best way to drop their payloads, to create the maximum amount of fire: “The bombs from a single ship must be spaced so as to assure a merging of the fires started by each bomb into a general conflagration before fire fighters have had time to put them out . . . With a full bomb load . . . of M-69 incendiaries, the area burned out by a single ship should be around 16 acres.”

That first firebombing of Tokyo resulted in the largest death toll of any air raid, in any war ever, up to that point—an estimated 100,000 Japanese, likely more. Civilians hiding in dug-out holes that served as crude bomb shelters were baked alive by the towering flames, the heat reaching 1,800 degrees F. Others took refuge in canals only to be boiled to death in the searing heat.

On August 1, Curtis LeMay issued a warning to Japanese citizens in twelve cities to leave their homes and jobs to save their lives, as their cities were top on what was being called in the press LeMay’s “death list”—Mito, Fukuyama, Ōtsu, among others. On August 2, the day Truman met with the king of England and then started the transatlantic journey home aboard the Augusta, the Twenty-First Bomber Command struck the enemy with what the New York Times called “the greatest single aerial strike in world history.” Nearly 900 B-29s pounded targets with 6,632 tons of conventional and incendiary bombs. The flames engulfed miles of Japanese cities. “The sight was incredible beyond description,” recalled one B-29 crewman. These attacking planes saw no opposition. “They knew we were coming but they didn’t do anything about it,” said one officer.

How did folks on the home front feel about this?

No outrage came from the American public. All the critics who had hurled calumny at the British for their willingness to bomb civilian population centers in Nazi Germany now remained silent. In fact, popular American opinion now seemed to embrace this form of warfare. Newspaper articles ran long columns with pictures of the factories where the firebombs were built. FILLING “GOOP BOMBS” THAT ARE FRYING JAPAN LIKE MIXING CAKE DOUGH, stated a Boston Daily Globe headline. “The M-69s [firebombs] become miniature flamethrowers,” reported Time magazine, “that hurl cheesecloth socks full of furiously flaming goo [napalm] for 100 yards. Anything these socks hit is enveloped by clinging, fiery pancakes.” Only Secretary of War Stimson urged an end to the indiscriminate killing. Stimson went to see the president. “I told him I was anxious about this feature of the war for two reasons,” Stimson wrote in his diary. “First, because I did not want to have the United States get the reputation of outdoing Hitler in atrocities; and second, I was a little fearful that before we could get ready the Air Force might have Japan so thoroughly bombed out that the new weapon would not have a fair background to show its strength.”

Obliquely threatened with the atomic bomb prior to its use, the Japanese refused to surrender:

On the same day the Senate ratified the UN Charter, Japan responded officially to the Potsdam Declaration. Tokyo was rejecting it. The Japanese government “does not consider [the Potsdam Declaration] of great importance,” Prime Minister Kantarō Suzuki said in a press conference. “We must mokusatsu it.” When the Foreign Broadcast Intelligence Service translated the word mokusatsu, it used the word ignore. In reality, the word meant “to kill with silence”—a vague notion. Another report from a Japanese news agency quoted the Japanese reaction to the ultimatum, saying Japan would “prosecute the war of Great East Asia to the bitter end.”

Of course, Japan did surrender after the atomic bombs were dropped, despite the fact that these bombings were less destructive to life and property than the firebombings had been.

I wonder if this is analogous to the coronaplague situation. Losing millions to influenza over the years never bothered us. Losing millions to automobile accidents that would be easy to prevent with lockdown-style regulations (e.g., only “essential” trips are authorized and private car ownership/amateur driving are banned) has never bothered us. Losing Americans to diabetes, heart disease, and other inevitable side effects of obesity doesn’t bother us enough to outlaw restaurants serving 2,000-calorie meals (or make us think twice about locking people into sedentary habits for 3 months). Losing Americans to cancer didn’t bother us enough to refrain from shutting down ultrasound and other cancer screenings from March through June 2020.

Unmitigated coronaplagues are sharp and painful, however. Even with a “do almost nothing” approach like Sweden took, the total number of deaths is smaller than causes of death that don’t motivate us to change behavior or policy. But the deaths are concentrated over a two-month period rather than being spread out over a year or two. From IHME:

Readers: What do you think? Correct SAT answer? “Atomic bomb is to firebombs as coronaplague is to influenza”

Bonus, from my Japan photos, Kyoto (spared both firebombs and the atomic bomb):

Related:

• from the Texas Medical Association: “In Texas, more than 11,000 people died from flu and its complications during the 2017-18 flu season, including 16 children, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said.” (Texas dashboard, showing 4,348 fatalities from Covid-19 so far in 2020)
• Press coverage: “Our hospitals look like war zones”: Texas battling influx of COVID-19 cases” (Houston Chronicle); “Coronavirus kills another 1,000 in Texas in just 10 days” (Texas Tribute); “Dallas County sets grim record of 30 deaths from COVID-19 as Texas posts its own one-day high of 197” (Dallas Morning News)

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(Or maybe Year 0?)

The epoch for a variety of calendars is the moment at which a new religion was born. For example, the Islamic calendar starts at the year that Muhammad and followers moved to Medina. The Buddhist calendar starts the day in which the Buddha attained parinibbāna. The Zoroastrian calendar starts from the birth of Zoroaster. Our calendar starts at the year in which Jesus was born.

As measured by whether heresy and infidels will be tolerated, the most important and popular religion in the U.S. right now is the Church of Shutdown. Shouldn’t this then be Year 1, AS (“After Shutdown”)? Or maybe Year 0, AC (“After Corona”)? Or Year 1, ME (“Mask Era”)?

Important holidays in the new calendar:

• Anthony Fauci‘s birthday: tree with decorations, gifts under the tree, songs about the birth of our savior Fauci
• NYC Shutdown day (March 22): instead of crowding into Manhattan stores, as was actually done in Year 1, people celebrate by buying a year’s worth of toilet paper, while wearing a mask, from the safety of their Internet-equipped bunker
• Anders Tegnell‘s birthday: somber day of mourning, cut and paste liturgy from Yom Kippur
• Elon Musk’s birthday: just to make the Tesla zealots happy

Readers: what should the other holidays be?

(Bottom photo: Carhenge)

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My Facebook feed is packed with Karens expressing hatred for those who say that wearing a mask is bad for health, uncomfortable, or results in oxygen starvation. (Advantage: Sweden, since they have no mask requirement and therefore citizens of Sweden can’t hate each other over this.)

Samples:

Flabbergasted at the number of people I see not wearing masks IN THE AIRPORT. Airport employees not wearing masks. People with masks under their noses. New rule: you can not wear a mask in public, but only if you write “I’m an asshole” on your forehead, with a sharpie. You can wear it under your nose if you write, “I’m stupid.”

I’m wearing a mask, not because the government says to, but because I’m a doctor’s kid, and I have a brain. I’m from Chicago, and every since I was little, I could see how far the moisture in my lungs and throat and mouth travel, because when it’s below freezing, you can actually see it. So I don’t need any damn government telling me not to be an asshole. On the other hand, mask-refusers are ruled by the government. They’re like kids shouting, “You’re not the boss of me!” and doing the opposite of whatever the government says. In this way, the government controls them. They don’t get to make their own decisions any more, because they’ve handed the power over to the government.

Marco Iannelli, at the end, says that wearing a mask does not make it difficult to breathe. What do the experts say?

From my inbox, July 6:

WEARING FACE COVERINGS SAFELY IN HOT WEATHER

The City of Cambridge and the Cambridge Public Health Department understand that wearing masks or cloth face coverings may not be possible in every situation or for some people, especially during the summer months.

In some situations, wearing a cloth face covering may worsen a physical or mental health condition, lead to a medical emergency, or introduce significant safety concerns.

#BelieveExperts?

Update from 7/22. A post from a friend in California (after months of wearing masks, now hosting an exponential epidemic of the virus that is prevented by wearing masks):

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From a company that helps jet owners plan their trips….

A lot of countries require that the PCR test be taken within 48 hours of arrival. This is challenging for overseas travelers (like from the U.S.) and/or travelers from countries where it takes longer than 24-36 hours to get the results (also like the U.S.). The workaround…secure a PCR test in a country near your destination. (For instance, Croatia now has a 48hr PCR test requirement. You can fly to Turkey (which is wide open for travel), get the test (24-36 hour turnaround), and proceed to Croatia. Our office in Turkey can help you arrange a testing provider.)

So… the Mediterranean beach holiday in Croatia can happen, but there might be a stop in Turkey. #InThisTogether

Want to prove that Donald Trump was wrong?

Haiti – Open.

Agree with Donald Trump on the superior cleanliness and development level of Western Europe?

France – France’s NOTAM is departure-based and not nationality-based. This significantly opens up access to third-country nationals (including U.S. citizens), … As long as the aircraft first clears in another Schengen country or the UK before proceeding to France, third country nationals can enter France. … How it works: Arrive in the UK, which is open, get your stamp in the UK, proceed to France. We’ve tested this option for Nice with some of our clients, and it is a workable path in.

You can go to Belarus (no shutdown, no banning of mass gatherings, and minimal coronaplague so far) without paperwork or ceremony. The rest of Europe is often open if you can claim a “business purpose.” Most of the Caribbean is open.

Here’s a question… how can anyone know whether a Covid-19 test result is genuine? What stops people from printing up Covid-19 PCR test results at home using the same laser printers that doctors and hospitals use? Passports have all kinds of forgery-prevention features, but medical test results don’t.

Bonus: A Gulfstream G650 at our local airport. (I motivated some defriending by posting this on Facebook with a caption of “We’ve taken out the middle seats for Covid-19.”)

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Perhaps due to the persistent refusal of Swedes to go into the ICU and die from Covid-19, despite two months of hysterical predictions and headlines, Florida and Texas seem to be in the news daily with dramatic “spikes” of “cases” (i.e., positive tests).

Given the drumbeat of media coverage, I would expect that most people in FL and TX are actually dead as of today. Yet, this dashboard from Texas shows that not many are even hospitalized:

The 10,658 hospitalized (in a state of 29 million) might include some folks who are actually suffering from something else, primarily, but happy to test positive for Covid-19?

Science tells us to expect an exponential growth process on a finite planet. The virus will never run out of suitable hosts, for example. Yet Texas, after weeks of “spiking” and exponential growth in positive tests, seems to be on a plateau as far as hospitalizations are concerned. Could it be that the plague is actually near a peak right now in Texas?

Florida, a state of 21 million, had 87 deaths reported yesterday, a somewhat higher rate than in Maskachusetts, which we are told has done a fantastic job of getting the virus under control (17 deaths reported yesterday in a state of 7 million).

Related:

• “Flu drives hospitals into ‘war zone’ conditions: Tents on the street in California, ‘state of emergency’ in Alabama, and Boston is using GATORADE to plug shortage of IV drips” (Daily Mail, January 17, 2018): “Hospitals in Southern California have set up emergency tents in their parking lot to treat the influx of flu patients – a scene that looks like a ‘war zone'”
• from the Texas Medical Association: “In Texas, more than 11,000 people died from flu and its complications during the 2017-18 flu season, including 16 children, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said.” (compare to about 4,000 Covid-19 deaths in Texas so far)

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… so they will definitely work in the general population.

“Universal Masking to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Transmission—The Time Is Now” (JAMA) says masks worked in the hospital:

In the largest health care system in Massachusetts with more than 75 000 employees, in tandem with routine symptom screening and diagnostic testing of symptomatic HCWs for SARS-CoV-2 infection, leadership mandated a policy of universal masking for all HCWs as well as for all patients. The authors present data that prior to implementation of universal masking in late March 2020, new infections among HCWs with direct or indirect patient contact were increasing exponentially, from 0% to 21.3% (a mean increase of 1.16% per day). However, after the universal masking policy was in place, the proportion of symptomatic HCWs with positive test results steadily declined, from 14.7% to 11.5% (a mean decrease of 0.49% per day). Although not a randomized clinical trial, this study provides critically important data to emphasize that masking helps prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Therefore, masks will send coronaplague packing:

First, public health officials and leaders need to ensure that the public understands clearly when and how to wear cloth face coverings properly and continue building the evidence base for their effectiveness. Second, although cloth face coverings are generally well tolerated for short periods, with prolonged use they can be irritating or difficult for some people to breathe through, especially in hot or humid environments. Innovation is needed to extend their physical comfort and ease of use. Third, the public needs consistent, clear, and appealing messaging that normalizes community masking. At this critical juncture when COVID-19 is resurging, broad adoption of cloth face coverings is a civic duty, a small sacrifice reliant on a highly effective low-tech solution that can help turn the tide favorably in national and global efforts against COVID-19.

The apparent contradiction between the bold-faced portions is not addressed.

[Potential bad news for American Karens: “It is probably safe for individuals and safe for others to drive alone…without a face covering,” (see this instructional video)]

So… the Swedes and the World Health Organization (advice through early June) are wrong about masks for the general population being effective in reducing plague? How might we be disappointed a few months down the road if we rely on this article?

1. In a hospital people don’t have any real choice about how far apart to stand (similar to public transport). So the donning of masks won’t lead people to change their “social distance” (risk compensation and see also “Why is Sweden still not asking people to wear face masks?”).
2. Each hospital worker has been fitted for an N95 mask (choice of at least 6 different styles) by a professional fitter.
3. Hospital workers dispose of the masks between patients or at the end of each day. Hospital workers have access to handwashing and hand sanitizer within a step or two.

When you look at two members of the general public in a grocery store, none of the foregoing applies. Hospitals and doctors’ offices here in Maskachusetts seem to recognize this. If you need to enter one of these buildings you will be required to put your saliva-soaked face rag back into your pocket. Then you will be required to use hand sanitizer or soap and water. Then you will be given a brand-new clean paper face mask to wear. The bandana that protects society from the plague going exponential is not considered worthwhile protection inside the hospital.

Department of Sweden is still right (Karen Philip’s favorite department!): the Swedes give out free clean masks when people are getting on public transport.

Separately, if it as easy as the Mask Karens say to eliminate a virus by putting masks on the general population, why didn’t we use this technique to eliminate influenza, which has killed literally millions of Americans during my lifetime?

(What’s the downside of relying on masks? If we put our faith in masks and then, a few months down the road discover that they aren’t effective for the general population, that delays the measures that we actually need to take, e.g., moving more activities outdoors under shade structures, decluttering retail environments, having crowded high schools rent empty big box stores so that students can be spread out more.)

Bonus: allegorical photo showing the fate of those who don’t wear a mask, from the old fishing hamlet of Helgumannen. Faro, Gotland.

and another one… (Langhammars. Faro, Gotland)

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