Using #Science to reason with vaccine-hesitant 5-11-year-olds

by philg

I’m not a regular Facebook user anymore, but an MIT friend shared a screen shot of his interaction with a desk job physician who went back into scrubs to do some COVID-19 vaccine injections on 5-11-year-olds (requiring the skills of a veterinary technician, a dog breeder, and/or, according to a medical school professor friend, “a janitor”). This is in a rich white part of the U.S.

A discussion ensued:

  • Equestrian mom (profile w kid and horse pictures, but no husband): Thank you for your service!
  • New York mom: Can you pin down some of the ridiculous anti vaxx adults and stab them?
  • Various: #Grateful #ThankYou #You’veGotThis
  • Lady whose profile is packed with cats and “Love is Love” rainbow frames: My cousin’s kids screamed “like a slasher movie” he reported. Good luck!
  • Grey-haired lady with “Let’s Get Vaccinated/We Can Do This” Facebook portrait frame: Thank you, thank you thank you!
  • A mom: Brave man!
  • Male Karen: Just got my booster today at a drive thru. Easy peasey
  • Doc Friend (one who sees patients daily): Godspeed
  • The volunteer doc/original poster: 80% of the kids were easy. 15% were tough. 5% were seemingly impossible and put up a significant fight. The county would do well to have a private room or area to deal with those kids, rather than holding up everyone and creating a spectacle for those waiting.
  • MIT graduate (my friend): I would just reason with the kids and say if they don’t get the vaccine, they have a 1 in 20 million chance of dying from Covid.

(Is 1 in 20 million number correct? From the BBC (UK data are much better than U.S. data due to superior competence with electronic medical records over there):

Researchers estimate that 25 deaths in a population of some 12 million children in England gives a broad, overall mortality rate of 2 per million children.

Around 15 had life-limiting or underlying conditions, including 13 living with complex neuro-disabilities

Though the overall risks were still low, children and young people who died were more likely to be over the age of 10 and of Black and Asian ethnicity.

Six had no underlying conditions recorded in the last five years – though researchers caution some illnesses may have been missed

So 1 in 20 million might be a reasonable lower-bound estimate for a typical rich white 8-year-old.)

Related:

Full post, including comments

Transgender Awareness Week in our public schools

by philg

Today is the last day of Transgender Awareness Week: “a one-week celebration leading up to the Transgender Day of Remembrance (TDoR), which memorializes victims of transphobic violence.”

A friend’s kids attend public school in a high-income North Shore Boston suburb. They’ve been receiving daily instruction regarding Transgender Awareness in their respective elementary and middle schools. One of the assignments is a take-home project. The middle school student is supposed to watch three school-selected videos with a parent or a sibling and then return to the (math) teacher with a report on his/her/zir/their reactions to the videos. The teacher can thus build up a file on how parents reacted to the following officially-chosen videos:

What about here in Florida? The Palm Beach County Public Schools:

2SLGBTQQIA+ has nothing to do with either religion or sex:

(Separately, in a defeat for #Science and despite having hired Elizabeth Holmes’s former law firm (David Boies was on her board and, according to Bad Blood, he and the firm were principal enablers of keeping the fraud quiet), Palm Beach County lost its legal dispute with the #Science-hating governor. Students are mask-free as of November 8 (but the library still requires masks).)

Readers: How did you celebrate?

Young Fiona can now breathe at school! Here she is talking to the Palm Beach County Covidcrats:

Related:

  • Regarding the Palm Beach County Schools asserting that tolerance/celebration of 2SLGBTQQIA+ is “not in conflict with any religious beliefs” (maybe they meant that it is not in conflict with their own religious beliefs, e.g., in Rainbow Flagism?)… “Can Islam Accommodate Homosexual Acts? Meditations on the Past Two Years” (Maydan): … nor has anyone argued that the canonical texts of Islam support anything other than specifically delineated sexual relationships that are all necessarily male-female. … Affirming the Quran as divine speech while concurrently accepting its alleged erroneousness on a subject so vital to the human experience in the modern world presents an untenable proposition for revisionist actors. In order to resolve tensions arising from these incompatible affirmations, it is the Quranic message that is overwritten in the name of sexual liberty. A Faustian bargain of epic proportions, the logical outcome of such a negotiation is a minimalist faith with no reference to the Quran as God’s inerrant word or the prophetic practice as representing the archetype of how to faithfully live that word. … It would seem we now have a workable sexual ethic that can be brought into conversation with Islamic sexual norms to then assert the licitness of same-sex relationships. However, the ethical and moral program upheld by Islam (which is, of course, the subject at hand) has never viewed consent as the sole criteria for sexual acts, and much that can be enacted consensually is indisputably prohibited. Zinā (fornication and adultery), for instance, is prohibited explicitly in the Quran irrespective of consent. Likewise with physical intimacy short of intercourse and seclusion between two marriageable persons (khalwa). Indeed, the elective agreement of two participating parties hardly counts when determining what is lawful and unlawful sexually in the Sharīʿa.
Full post, including comments

Jimmy Carter and China’s offer of 10 million migrants

by philg

There was a period in the 1970s when China and the U.S. were expanding trade ties and a sticking point was a requirement that a county couldn’t get low tariffs (“most favored nation”) status unless it was fully open to emigration, a measure that was intended to pressure the Soviet Union.

During a conversation with President Jimmy Carter, however, Deng Xiaoping called the Americans’ bluff:

Vice Premier Deng: On the amendment supported by Senator Jackson, it really has nothing to do with China. The Jackson amendment demands that the Soviet Union allow free emigration. Would you like to import ten million Chinese?

The answer was “Uh, thanks, but no thanks”. The U.S. did not want the offered migrants and, according to the lecture series that I recently finished, the sticking point was removed and tariffs on Chinese products were reduced.

(See “Modern Immigration Wave Brings 59 Million to U.S., Driving Population Growth and Change Through 2065” (Pew, 2015) for how the U.S. ended up bringing in 59 million migrants between 1965 and 2015.)

I was reminded of this when reading about the drama currently playing out in Europe. The European welfare states say that migration is a human right and also that every migrant who shows up has a right to housing, health care, food, etc. They also tell the native-born that low-skill migrants are making native-born vastly better off culturally and economically. But it is a different story when they’re offered some actual migrants… “Merkel appeals to Putin to intervene in Belarus border crisis” (Guardian):

In a phone call on a crisis that has escalated dramatically since Monday, when 1,000 people mainly from Iraqi Kurdistan arrived on the border, the German chancellor told Putin that the “use of migrants by the Belarusian regime was inhuman and unacceptable and asked [Putin] to influence the regime in Minsk”, according to the chancellor’s spokesperson, Steffen Seibert, who described the situation as “state-sanctioned human trafficking”.

The arrival of more than 1,000 people, many from Iraqi Kurdistan, at the Polish border on Monday brought the crisis to a head, with the EU accusing Belarus of a “hybrid attack”. Polish border guards said on Wednesday that two groups of several dozen people had breached the borders overnight. They were arrested and expelled, they said. Lithuanian border guards said they had prevented 281 attempts to cross the border illegally on Tuesday.

Charles Michel, the European Council president, said during a visit to Warsaw on Wednesday that Belarus’s actions were unacceptable. “Possible sanctions are on the table … and we want to make sure that we coordinate with all the member states in order to make the best possible choices and to identify what are the best possible tools in order to be effective. It must stop, this hybrid attack against the EU,” he said.

On Tuesday, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said western countries including EU member states, and Nato, were the “root” of the crisis. “They were pushing for a western-style better life and democracy the way it is interpreted by the west,” he said, referring to US-led interventions and alleged western backing for the Arab spring.

Asked whether Germany would take in migrants unilaterally, Merkel’s spokesperson said the question was “irrelevant”.

Related:

  • “Blue States, You’re the Problem” (nytimes, 11/9/2021), in which they ask the same question that I often ask here on this blog: since there are no Republicans in the Bay Area, why don’t the rich Democrats there who say that they want to house the unhoused build some housing for the unhoused?
Full post, including comments

Uncle Joe’s restaurant

by philg

On the way to a swamp wetlands boardwalk, we stopped at a strip mall and found Uncle Joe’s:

Here’s the menu:

Depending on who was reading the menu, the General Tao’s Chicken was either $1.85 trillion or “zero”.

(When Uncle Joe is not busy stirring the wok… September 24 Remarks by President Biden:

We talk about price tags. The — it is zero price tag on the debt. We’re paying — we’re going to pay for everything we spend. So they say it’s not — you know, people, understandably — “Well, you know, it started off at $6 trillion, now it’s $3.5 trillion. Now it’s — is it going to be $2.9? Is it…”

It’s going to be zero — zero. Because in the — in that plan that I put forward — and I said from the outset — I said, “I’m running to change the dynamic of how the economy grows.”

)

Another menu, from “Everything in the House Democrats’ Budget Bill” (NYT, 11/18):

Stepping back from this a bit, isn’t this another way to transfer money from hard-working childless Americans to those of us fortunate enough to have kids? A single drone worker in a city is not a “family” and won’t get anything out of the biggest block at top left. The drone probably will earn too much to qualify for any of the housing or health care subsidies. The drone already has a job and is already in the U.S., so won’t obviously benefit from the $133 billion spent on immigration. The drone doesn’t have $80,000 in state and local taxes to deduct (the Democrats’ new limit, up from Trump’s $10,000; average property tax rate in the U.S. is about 1.08 percent, so this new tax code will be perfect for anyone with a $7.4 million house).

How about the birdwatching from the boardwalk? It was actually better in the strip mall:

I think that the above bird is a Great Blue Heron who identifies as white. We saw some sandhill cranes on the highway just before turning into Grassy Waters Preserve. After a few minutes of strolling, we learned that immigration is detrimental to natives:

We also learned that birds and alligators do not show up when tourists want them to…

(I think the tricks for wildlife spotting in South Florida are (a) wait until mating season for animals that migrate from the north, and/or (b) wait until the mid-winter dry season when animals collect near the remaining water.)

Most bizarre thing about the boardwalk? Even in the shaded heavily wooded parts… no bugs!

Full post, including comments

Cost of all U.S. wars versus cost of coronapanic

by philg

It was Veterans Day last week, when we celebrated anyone who carried a gun, flew a desk, stocked shelves, or conducted gender reassignment surgery on behalf of the U.S. military. The United States Department of Veterans Affairs has a budget roughly comparable to what the formidable Russians spend on their active duty military. To what could we compare our military budget that would make it look like a bargain?

What’s the scope of the spending that we’re hoping to put into perspective? Let’s start by looking at a Congressional Research Service report, “Costs of Major U.S. Wars” (figures in 2011 dollars). According to the pointy heads, the U.S. spent $4.1 trillion on World War II, $728 billion on the Vietnam War, and roughly $1.1 trillion for the first 10 years of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our other wars were insignificant in costs by comparison.

What could have cost more than all of these wars? Coronapanic! Ignoring what cities and states might have spent, e.g., paying employees who weren’t working, the federal government alone has spent roughly $10 trillion so far (covidmoneytracker.org).

A Smithsonian National Museum of American History exhibit, November 2019:

Related:

Full post, including comments

What is your prediction regarding the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict?

by philg

Readers (especially those who followed the complete trial, which I did not): What is your prediction regarding the most likely verdict in the Kyle Rittenhouse case?

I probably shouldn’t offer an opinion because I did not watch any of the videos from the courthouse. However, since I’m asking you to guess, maybe I am obligated also to put forth my best guess…. guilty of at least one count.

My rationale for predicting a guilty verdict is not based on any of the facts in the case nor any evidence or argument that was presented at trial. My prediction is based purely on the psychology of compliance. One thing that we’ve learned from the 2020 lockdowns and the recent elections (national and California governor recall) is that Americans are generally compliant with whatever the government tells them to do. The non-compliant spirit among at least some young Americans in the 1960s is dead. In the specific case of Kyle Rittenhouse, the government is telling a group of Americans to convict him and therefore I think that he will be convicted.

Related:

Full post, including comments

Maybe it is time for that booster shot?

by philg

Scary-sounding media reports of COVID illness aren’t that scary once one reflects that the media can draw on a population of 330 million to find the worst-case situations. Folks in Maskachusetts and California take risks greater than 1 in 330 million just driving to the dispensary to get their designated-essential-by-Covidcrats marijuana (when schools are closed for 18 months and you’re home with kids, it is important to be fully stoned!).

But what about when COVID strikes a friend? That’s a sample from a population of hundreds of people. The story below is about a friend in his early 50s and generally healthy/fit with a reasonable weight.

Sobering timeline:

  • late March: Moderna shot #1
  • late April: Moderna shot #2
  • October 28: indoor gathering in New York City among the fully vaccinated (by law and, in practice, carefully checked)
  • October 31: began to feel sick
  • November 3: fever of 101, prompting antigen test for COVID-19 (positive) followed by PCR test (positive)
  • November 3: due to history of asthma, qualifies for monoclonal antibody treatment under the rules established by New York Covidcrats (available as a free drive-through for Floridians!). Pays $2,500 for at-home (“in-apartment”?) administration at 6 pm.
  • November 4, 2 am: woke up with fever of 103.4
  • November 4, morning: fever down to 102
  • November 4-10: fever of around 100, sleeping 16 hours/day
  • November 13: mostly recovered
  • November 18: “pretty much back to normal, but still not working out”

His illness was at least as bad as anything that friends who got COVID-19 in 2020 reported (sample of about 50, mostly in expertly-managed-by-#Science New York and Massachusetts). And none of them had the antibodies or, indeed, any other medicine. I think the most likely possibilities, therefore, are the following

  1. the vaccine was worthless, just as the flu vaccine is usually worthless
  2. the vaccine was helpful, but only for a few months
  3. the vaccine put evolutionary pressure on SARS-CoV-2 to evolve into a nastier form (as happened with the low-quality vaccine applied to Marek’s disease)

My best argument against Possibility #3 is Sweden. If SARS-CoV-2 had evolved to become much more aggressive, the natural immunity that the Swedes built up by letting the virus rage should not be effective against the evolved virus. Yet both deaths and COVID “cases” are more or less flat in Sweden, even as rising numbers in the rest of Europe send fearful populations back into their bunkers:

My friend had Moderna, which should be enough vaccine to treat a horse, at least if we believe that the Pfizer 30-microgram shots are sufficient for a 300 lb. human (Moderna shots are 100 micrograms of mRNA and a good-sized horse is 1,000 lbs.). His protection did not last longer than 6 months. Therefore, if we choose Possibility #2, it seems that those of us over 50 should get a booster after only about 4 or 5 months.

What if we choose Possibility 1, “the vaccine was worthless, just as the flu vaccine is usually worthless”? We could also call this the “viruses are smarter than humans” hypothesis. If a medicine is worthless, and even potentially harmful (maybe in 5-10 years we will have full information about these rushed-to-market vaccines?), can it ever be rational to take more of that medicine?

My answer: Yes!

Today’s official state religion includes Faucism. Religious people love to hear stories of sinners suffering their just deserts. Under Faucism, those who weakly “hesitated” regarding getting a vaccine are the biggest sinners of all (it was formerly those who gathered without masks, but there have been so many photos of the elites not following their own mask rules that it now has to be those who reject the Sacrament of the Needle). The only way to avoid becoming a statistic that will support whatever the Covidcrats want to inflict on Americans is to get the booster on the precise date that is suggested by the Covidcrats. (Consider the above story. If my friend hadn’t been vaccinated, the exact same Oct/Nov experience would have been ammunition for the next forced vaccination campaign.)

Equivalent logic: Officer Terry Hoitz (Mark Wahlberg) learns ballet to show that guys who did ballet were “queer”.

Followed by this clip:

Allen Gamble: Hey, I didn’t know you can dance.
Terry Hoitz: We used to do those dance moves to make fun of guys when we were kids to show them how queer they were, okay.

Readers: What do you think? Do we all have to get boosters just to show that vaccination (at least with current tech) won’t make COVID-19 go away?

Also, you may want this Faucism T-shirt for your safe-from-the-bunker Zoom interactions:

Full post, including comments

Canon RF 800/11 lens for air shows

by philg

Stuart, Florida has a small annual air show that proved to be a good opportunity to test the new Canon mirrorless religion against some of America’s greatest aerobatic pilots and military hardware that awes everyone except our enemies. I brought a Canon R5 body and the 800/11 lens (lightweight inexpensive ($900) lens optimized for long walks in search of birds) to the event, setting up at Atlantic Aviation’s barbecue on the south side of the field, which is where you might be if you flew into the event. Most of the spectators are on the north side of the field and therefore would have had the sun in the background of many images.

Perhaps partly due to the fact that we were usually a little farther from the planes than the main crowd, magnification was about right for a lot of the solo planes. A longer lens would not have been welcome as it was already tough to find moving aircraft in the sky with the lens after first locating them with the unaided eyes. A 600mm lens (on a full-frame camera) is probably better if you’re in a more standard position and then a zoom lens covering 200-400mm for formations and big aircraft (e.g., Boeing 737 and larger).

All of the pictures had the wrong timestamp. A $4,000 camera with WiFi and Bluetooth cannot set its own clock, time zone, or Daylight Savings Time status, unlike the $29+ that we’re accustomed to purchasing for our houses and pockets. (Every photo off by one hour because I hadn’t gone deep into the menus to turn off DST)

Battery life on the R5 was just about perfect for this project, which resulted in 911 pictures and a couple of minutes of video. The battery was at 30 percent at the end of the 5-hour project.

I’m a raw beginner with this body, so my configuration was very simple: servo autofocus (defaults on the zones and other modes), high-speed drive (8 frames/second; not the 12 fps “H+” mode); shutter-priority autoexposure (the lens is at a fixed f/11, so the camera will adjust ISO based on the scene brightness) at 1/1600th to 1/2500th depending on the aircraft speed. No monopod or tripod (i.e., handheld and rely on in-body and in-lens image stabilization). Some of the images below are cropped, but not are post-processed for exposure or in any other way besides downsizing to 4k resolution (3,840 pixels wide) in the remnants of Google Picasa.

So that you don’t give up on this post, a successful slightly cropped F-16 image, the demo team (pilot: Garret Schmitz) showing the taxpayers a thrust-to-weight greater than 1:

Some jumpers who wouldn’t have registered on a shorter lens:

A heritage formation (F-22, P-51 Mustangs, F-16) that fit:

The AeroShell Aerobatic Team (showing just how loud the AT-6 can be):

The last image is uncropped and included to demonstrate how well the EOS R5 does with exposure in a tough situation (white clouds surrounding the subject plus a lot of white on the subject itself; Black Subjects Matter and white subjects might matter to some, but cameras work best when the scene is 18 percent grey).

A little Decathlon that would have gotten lost with a shorter lens:

Max is mad, but not as mad as if he’d had to carry a 14 lb. lens that came in its own suitcase:

An appropriate magnification for the A-10:

If you enjoyed our video regarding the F-22 flight controls and/or you simply love being a taxpayer ($350 million per F-22?):

Big lens+Big airplane (C-17) do not mix well:

On the other hand, the magnification was perfect for the aerobatic Bo 105:

Here’s an example of where a 600mm lens would have made life easier:

But, on the other hand, shouldn’t one expect to throw out 95 percent of images taken of subjects moving at 500+ mph?

The Shockwave Jet truck racing Rob Holland (lens too long at the same time that our position was too far away):

Matt Younkin showing off in a Beech 18:

Department of It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time:

Since Thanksgiving is coming up, some things to be thankful for… (we can enjoy looking at the moon; we’re not a helicopter’s external load)

Does the lens make sense for air shows? I think so! If you’re not covering the air show professionally you don’t need to get a great picture of every aircraft. This lens will give you some interesting pictures that few non-professionals are likely to get. The EOS R5 is a champ when it comes to autofocus!

Related:

  • the USAF Thunderbirds (2018 images of practice before an event in Maskachusetts, Canon 200-400L with 1.4X teleconverter for many images)
  • some other snapshots (from the 2018 Maskachusetts air show)
  • Oshkosh Air Show Highlights (just a text discussion; I wasn’t strong enough to schlep my huge lenses and we didn’t have space/weight in the airplane)
Full post, including comments

Enterprise that gets paid for abortions takes action to promote teenage pregnancy

by philg

“Condom rollout in all Vermont middle and high schools complete” (NBC):

This school year, all Vermont students in grades 7 through 12 gained access to free condoms in school.

Condom supplies come from planned parenthood of northern New England and are free of charge for schools.

Planned Parenthood’s revenue increases if the number of abortions increases and condoms in schools lead to additional pregnancies (see academic study below). A classic cui bono example?

See “Fighting AIDS, Changing Teen Pregnancy? The Incidental Fertility Effects of School Condom Distribution Programs” (full text). The same paper on PubMed: “We find that access to condoms in schools increases teen fertility by about 12 percent.” (the authors looked at births rather than abortions since the statistic is easier to gather than the number of abortions, but since it is difficult for a pregnant person to give birth without first being pregnant, it seems safe to assume that free condoms in increase the pregnancy rate and, therefore, the demand for abortions by pregnant people).

Related:

Full post, including comments

What edge does Rivian have in the truck or EV market?

by philg

“Rivian Is The Biggest Company With No Revenue In The U.S.” (Jalopnik) provides a little background on what is now the world’s third most valuable vehicle maker (Tesla #1, Toyota #2, Rivian #3, just ahead of VW).

Readers: Please educate me! What does Rivian know how to do that makes it worth huge $$ despite zero revenue? Wikipedia doesn’t describe any innovations other than maybe putting in four motors (but so what? A C8 Corvette has only one motor and it gets down the road and around corners).

It can’t be battery chemistry because the company buys batteries from Samsung (InsideEVs).

It can’t be that nobody else can make an electric pickup truck because the Ford F-150 Lightning will be here soon.

It can’t be that nobody else can make electric commercial vehicles because Mercedes promises the eSprinters to Americans starting in 2023 (Car and Driver).

I don’t see how it can be the case that Rivian will flood the market before the legacy companies, the way that Tesla has remarkably done, because Rivian is only just struggling to get its first vehicles out to consumers. If things go perfect, Rivian will deliver 40,000 units in its first year (source). Ford sells nearly 1 million F-150s per year.

An electric pickup enthusiast will have to wait his/her/zir/their turn for either a Rivian or a Ford. Why wouldn’t the typical buyer prefer to order a Ford? The price for Ford’s electric truck is lower than Rivian’s price and the reviews of the Ford are positive (example).

Ford is an investor in Rivian, so presumably there is a rational answer to why Rivian is worth a lot (since Ford knows the industry!). But what is that answer?

(Investors take note: I thought and wrote pretty much all of the above about Tesla when the company was young. I think it is safe to say that I have been proven wrong! But on the third hand Tesla didn’t arrive on the scene at the precise moment that the legacy car makers were going all-in on electric vehicles while Rivian is arriving after Ford already demoed the electric F-150.)

vs.

Full post, including comments