My election prediction: Democrats will be flummoxed

by philg

An April Facebook post from a friend with a Ph.D. in engineering:

Folks, regardless of your specific political orientation the choice in this year’s presidential election could not be more clear.

Biden is way behind on campaign funds. Way behind.

I just donated.

A September 1 post:

If you’re going to vote for Trump this election, unfriend me now. Sorry extended family. I don’t care who you do vote for, but if you vote for Trump you’ve lost my respect as a human being. I can’t imagine thinking that this is OK. We are in the time we have always thought “what would I do if I was alive then?” Act like it. I sure hope your tax breaks are worth it.

And, of course, it is always popular to share this meme:

“Agree to disagree” is reserved for things like “I don’t like coffee.” Not racism, homophobia, and sexism. Not human rights. Not basic common decency. If I unfriend you during this, it IS personal. We do not have a difference of opinion. We have a difference in morality.

For me, these encapsulate of the American political situation. Democrats, though they officially celebrate “diversity”, cannot imagine that anyone would have a substantially different opinion than they do regarding public policy, the appropriate role for government, etc.

There is a clear choice in this election. Moral intelligent people will vote for Biden-Harris. Only immoral stupid racist people who ignore the advice of their betters (e.g., in the media) will vote for Trump. Thus, I feel confident in predicting that if even a single person today votes for a Republican candidate, tens of millions of Democrats will be perplexed! How is it possible that the U.S. contains a substantial number of people who are simultaneously completely lacking in moral compass, cognitive ability, and racial tolerance?

What says the most-cited professor at M.I.T., whose research into Trump’s deficiencies has apparently continued despite the general shutdown? From New Yorker:

Professor Chomsky agrees with Joe Biden (see the debate transcript) that the Earth is almost destroyed and humanity is nearly finished and that this is primarily Donald Trump’s fault:

Q: The worst criminal in human history? That does say something.

It does. Is it true?

Q: Well, you have Hitler; you have Stalin; you have Mao.

Stalin was a monster. Was he trying to destroy organized human life on earth?

Q: Well, he was trying to destroy a lot of human lives.

Yes, he was trying to destroy lots of lives but not organized human life on earth, nor was Adolf Hitler. He was an utter monster but not dedicating his efforts perfectly consciously to destroying the prospect for human life on earth.

This does lead to two perplexing questions: (1) if human life is nearly extinct, why do anything at all about coronavirus, which kills only a small percentage of people when allowed to rage, and (2) how can we have fellow citizens who will voluntarily vote for the worst criminal in human history?

Update, November 4, from a Facebook friend:

I don’t care who wins. the country has already said it’s totally acceptable to be a bigoted, proven pathological liar and that is really disappointing. Those who teach our kids trump is the very example of what not to do in life are now learning america likes it and want more of it. Very sad morning irrespective of the outcome.

From a Berkeley, California resident who works in a government-funded academic environment:

How could so many Americans have looked at what’s happened over the last four years and thought, “Yeah, that’s good, let’s have more of that!”?

Related:

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Safe to predict a defeat for Senator Susan Collins of Maine?

by philg

Susan Collins was the only Republican who voted against the beloved-by-Honda-minivan-drivers Amy Coney Barrett. Collins was already hated by everyone in the greater Portland, Maine region (nearly half the state’s population). At age 67, she is also subject to prejudice against the elderly (though Biden doesn’t seem to be hurting!). Presumably her vote against Barrett was calculated to enhance her chances for reelection, but I wonder if it is safe to say that this choice doomed her. To win, she needs nearly everyone in small town and rural Maine to turn out and vote against their oppression by the sophisticated credentialed enriched-by-bigger-government folks in Portland. But now that this ancient sack of muddled middle-of-the-road positions has voted against America’s SuperMom, how are the rural Mainers supposed to muster enough enthusiasm to vote?

I’m usually wrong about everything, but I am going to predict here that the 48-year-old Sara Gideon prevails. Maine will finally be represented by a politician that all of Portland supports!

(helicopter flying by me; photo by Tony)

Related:

  • “Gideon raked in $39 million for Senate race in last 3 months” (Portland Press Herald, October 15): Democrat Sara Gideon raised more than $39 million for her U.S. Senate campaign in the third quarter of this year, nearly five times the $8 million contributed to the campaign of Republican Sen. Susan Collins. [We haven’t seen too many complaints in U.S. media lately about money corrupting politics; is that because Democrats are raising far more money than Republicans?]
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The Coastal Elite’s pain at sharing a country with Trump supporters

by philg

“How Will I Ever Look at America the Same Way Again?” (NYT, Frank Bruni, October 29) beautifully summarizes the pain that coastal elites suffer because, by an accident of geography, they are sharing a country with Deplorables and, as my Dutch friend points out, forgot to take away the Deplorables’ right to vote.

It’s always assumed that those of us who felt certain of Hillary Clinton’s victory in 2016 were putting too much trust in polls.

I was putting too much trust in Americans.

I’d seen us err. I’d watched us stray. Still I didn’t think that enough of us would indulge a would-be leader as proudly hateful, patently fraudulent and flamboyantly dishonest as Donald Trump.

We had episodes of ugliness, but this? No way. We were better than Trump.

Except, it turned out, we weren’t.

“We” in this case means people who don’t live in Manhattan and work for the New York Times, presumably. The Deplorables are far more deplorable than the sensitive writer could have conceived:

And it was a populace I didn’t recognize, or at least didn’t want to.

Trump snuffed out my confidence, flickering but real, that we could go only so low and forgive only so much. With him we went lower — or at least a damningly large percentage of us did. In him we forgave florid cruelty, overt racism, rampant corruption, exultant indecency, the coddling of murderous despots, the alienation of true friends, the alienation of truth itself, the disparagement of invaluable institutions, the degradation of essential democratic traditions.

And did the Deplorables see the light when the New York Times published material from Anonymous, a “senior administration official” who turned out to have no decision-making power at all (he does not look old enough to vote!).

In a sane and civil country, of the kind I long thought I lived in, his favorability ratings would have fallen to negative integers, a mathematical impossibility but a moral imperative. In this one, they never changed all that much.

No! There are still people in this country who prefer Donald Trump to the possibility of President Biden and/or President Harris.

This Times piece is worth reading, in my opinion, because it eloquently expresses what so many elites have been feeling. If God loves them, how could he/she/ze/they have dumped them into a redneck-filled land rather than some place where at least those without advanced credentials would recognize their intellectual superiority?

Exhibit A, someone with enough money to buy a Lexus, but without the sophistication to refrain from purchasing Alabama’s “God Bless America” plate:

Exhibit B, some folks in Easton, Pennsylvania who not only fail to boycott Chick-fil-A, but actually work there!

Related:

  • Part of the same NYT series, “What We’ve Lost”, an opinion piece bemoaning the selfishness of the American people: As a nation, we’ve lost our sense of altruistic and moral purpose, a collective will to do what is decent and right and, as sociologists like to say, “other-regarding.” (but isn’t this the inevitable effect of mass immigration? Americans never cared deeply about poor people outside of the U.S. Why would they suddenly begin to care about tens or hundreds of millions of poor people merely because those people somehow made it over the border? There are some exceptions with huge hearts, such as Bill Gates, who care about all people everywhere equally. But most of us have always cared far more about the neighbors with whom we share a culture than about people in distant foreign lands.)
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Invest in Ireland ahead of the Biden-Harris Presidency?

by philg

A signature campaign promise of the Biden-Harris campaign is to raise the U.S. federal corporate tax rate to 28 percent or 31 percent on corporations that “offshore manufacturing and service jobs to foreign nations in order to sell goods or provide services back to the American market.” (Tax Foundation) When we add in state corporate tax rates, the typical U.S. company might be hit with roughly 36 percent in taxes. Compare this to 12.5 percent in Ireland or 19 percent for a London-based company.

The Trump tax law changes of late 2017 took a lot of the wind out of the Irish inversion sails. If high corporate tax rates are restored by President Harris, though, it will again make the best economic sense for corporations to be headquartered in Ireland, the UK, or other comparatively low-tax location. Ireland has the lowest rate in the EU and everyone there speaks English (sort of). Can investors profit from a Biden-Harris election win, therefore, by buying Irish assets? Since U.S. law discourages sham inversions, the actual senior management jobs should migrate to Ireland. This should help Irish real estate, banks, insurance, etc. Under a Biden-Harris administration, an enterprise with management in Ireland and an operating subsidiary in the U.S. should have higher net profits than one in which everything is in the U.S.

Separately, how is Ireland doing with coronaplague? After more than seven months of shutdown, they’ve now entered “Level 5” double secret shutdown. Note that essentially everything is closed except for schools. Primary schools are unmasked. Once students enter secondary school they must don the hijab of the Church of Shutdown. Universities are open. Adult education is open, which includes flight schools (yay!). I was discussing this on WhatsApp with an Irish friend and I said “This is the mirror image of Massachusetts. Here almost everything is open except for the schools. And when we had almost everything closed, it was the marijuana and liquor stores that were deemed essential and kept open. Maybe this is all that we need to know to understand the difference between Irish and Massachusetts values.”

The WHO dashboard shows that Ireland, in its island redoubt, has suffered a little more than half the COVID-19 death rate compared to the U.S. or the U.K.

Ireland was already ahead of the U.S. in PISA scores (2018 snapshot). With the U.S. in the midst of what might be a multi-year education shutdown while Irish schools and universities are operating more or less normally (see Trinity College Dublin’s plan), is that another good reason to shift investment to Ireland?

What the Irish might call a sunny day, May 2019, on the Giant’s Causeway (taxed by the U.K., which is a great thing if you’re an entrepreneur!)

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COVID-19 survivors speak

by philg

Kellyanne Conway and Melania Trump, both recent victims of COVID-19, managed to recover sufficient lung capacity to speak in Pennsylvania recently. The video is on PBS and a transcript on Rev.

I had never seen a video of Melania Trump before and it was interesting to hear her perspective. Some excerpts:

For the first time in history, the citizens of this country get to hear directly and instantly from their president every single day through social media. I do not always agree with the way he says things but it is important to him that he speaks directly to the people he serves.

The Democrats have chosen to put their own agendas ahead of the American people’s wellbeing. Instead, they attempt to create a divide, a divide on something that should be nonpartisan and non-controversial.

While the President was taking decisive action to keep the American people safe, the Democrats were wasting American taxpayer dollars in a sham impeachment. They cared more about removing our elected president.

Joe Biden attacked President Trump’s decision to put the American people first and closing travel from China. He called it xenophobic hysteria. Now he suggest that he could have done a better job. The American people can look at Joe Biden’s 36 years in Congress and eight years in the Vice Presidency and determine whether they think he will finally be able to get something done for the American people.

Before my husband decided to run for President, the media loved him because they saw the man that I see every day. Someone tough, successful, and fair. … A man who sees potential in everyone he meets, no matter their gender, race, religion, or sexual orientation. … But when he decided to run for the President as a Republican, the media created a different picture of my husband, one I don’t recognize, and treated all his supporters with equal disdain. The media has chosen to focus on stories of idle gossip and palace intrigue by editorializing real events and policies with their own bias and agendas.

Apparently Melania has been paying close attention to events in Washington and beyond. She espouses a traditional (for American politicians) message of prosperity and security:

This election isn’t just about the next year. It’s about the next four years and beyond. It’s about continuing to set this country on a course of real prosperity and success. We can’t and we shouldn’t go backwards. Donald Trump is the man who will lead us and empower us to make that greater future together. Donald Trump will expand and grow the economy and keep us safe.

Joe Biden’s policy and socialist agenda will only serve to destroy America and all that has been built in the past four years. We must keep Donald in the White House so he can finish what he started and our country can continue to flourish.

And she’s kind of humble:

Thank you for taking time out of your day to be here with me.

Readers: Could Melania win a Senate race in her new home of Florida, for example? Rick Scott is 67, which is 20 years younger than Dianne Feinstein. On the other hand, maybe Scott would rather do something else in what would traditionally be considered his Golden Years.

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What jobs could Biden and Trump do if they fail to win?

by philg

Within a few days we will know whether Biden (78 later this month) or Trump (74) will be available to work in the private sector starting in January.

According to the American voters, whose wisdom can never be doubted(!), these two are the most able administrators in our land. So… what would Trump do if he lost? Go back to chairmanship of his real estate empire? Phil Ruffin is still actively managing his real estate empire at age 85 (and was vigorous enough at 72 to marry Oleksandra Nikolayenko, Miss Ukraine 2004).

How about Biden? Leaving aside lobbying and other jobs that are dependent on connections (not to say “corruption”!), who would want him to start work at their enterprise at age 78? What would Biden be able to do?

How about Hillary Clinton? In November 2016, more than 65 million Americans believed her to be the most able administrator in the land. What has Hillary done since then?

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Sean Connery as an inspiration for American suburban life

by philg

From one of our Facebook friends:

RIP, Sir Sean Connery. Your impact on my childhood and becoming a man cannot be understated. Thank you.

This led to a mystified chat discussion. The guy who posted this has been married for 25 years, works at a desk job, never does anything without first asking his wife for permission, never expresses an opinion that he and/or his wife think might upset the town’s cabal of stay-at-home moms, and is an apparent slave to his high school-age daughters. What was the connection between James Bond and the suburban soccer dad? How had Danny Dravot’s attempts to take over Afghanistan in The Man Who Would Be King inspired his trips to Costco?

Also, if Joe Biden delivers on his promise to shut down the United States, do we start calling Anthony Fauci “Dr. No”?

Related:

  • Wikipedia reveals the inclusive nature of the U.K. Connery was knighted by the Queen in 2000 despite (a) living in the Bahamas to minimize income tax liability, and (b) supporting Scottish independence.
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Fears in the 1990s versus fears in the Age of Corona

by philg

Happy Halloween! Let’s consider how our fears have evolved.

In the 1990s, we were afraid of the following:

  • The government would invade our privacy via CCTV cameras when we were out walking around.
  • Microsoft would crush upstart competitors by bundling software with similar capabilities into their monopoly operating system. This could cost each of us $100 or more.
  • Everyone will be killed by HIV/AIDS
  • What else?

Fears today:

  • We don’t have to worry about CCTV cameras on the sidewalk since (a) it might be illegal to be out on the sidewalk to begin with, (b) if it were legal, we’d have to wear a mask.
  • Facebook, YouTube, Amazon, et al. will deplatform anyone who disagrees with what they deem to be RightThink on a wide range of issues.
  • Everyone will be killed by COVID-19
  • What else?

A friend’s minivan, decorated by a recent high school graduate…

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A 2016 Volkswagen e-Golf interfaces with the American used car market

by philg

A friend spent $10,000 on a 2016 Volkswagen e-Golf via Carvana, a fixed-price car delivery service. The vehicle arrived in beautiful cosmetic condition, but with a Nissan-brand charger that did not work, failing even to illuminate a green LED when plugged in, much less charge the Volkswagen. A week of hassle ensued in which the proud new owner was shunted from an auto parts store to a Volkswagen dealer. Eventually she got a Volkswagen-brand charger, which was a $700 part (enough for a year of minivan driving in the Age of Coronapanic and with gas at $2/gallon).

The new charger worked, but the car’s computer systems weren’t consistent. She would set off on a short journey with the computer showing a range of 80 miles and then watch the range forecast jump to 3 miles while the car stopped itself on the highway. 2.5 hours later, AAA towed the car away.

Eventually she decided to trade the car back for a 2010 Mini, powered, of course, by dinosaur blood.

I’m wondering if early attempts at electric cars will soon be clogging our junkyards. If her experience is typical, the systems seem to be at a Windows 98 level of reliability.

Speaking of cars, here’s a Mercedes ad from the a recent New York Times web page:

This leads to a “Pride month” web page on mbusa.com:

A Proud Owner Speaks

“This Pride month is unlike any other before it. We find ourselves in the middle of a global health pandemic, while so many of us have united in fighting to address and finally put an end to systemic racism and discrimination. As a proud Black and gay man, I take this time to pause and hold space for the Black community because we are hurting and we are demanding lasting change. Mercedes-Benz has stood with the Black and LGBTQ+ communities and has vowed to continue to be with us going forward.

As unique as this time is, it does truly echo and honors the legacy of bravery of the Civil Rights Movement and the historic Stonewall protests, which were led by pioneering Black transgender activists like Marsha P. Johnson. These movements, past and present, intersect at the common point of pushing towards equality for all.

(When you identify as LGBTQIA+, it is acceptable to modify “unique”?)

If the Wikipedia List of LGBT awareness periods is to be believed, Pride month is June, not October (home to Asexual Awareness Week, International Lesbian Day, International Pronouns Day, Intersex Awareness Day, LGBT History Month, Spirit Day, and National Coming Out Day).

We’re informed by the NYT that Americans who identify as LGBTQIA+ suffer employment and other discrimination that reduces their income and wealth. If so, how did they come to have $80,000 to spend on a Mercedes that performs the same function as a $25,000 Toyota or Honda?

Also potentially interesting: the Mercedes web site for German consumers does not contain any content regarding the company’s support of matters LGBTQIA+, at least none that a search-savvy Germany-speaking friend could find. Why are Americans so much more interested in this than Germans?

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