Category: Coronapanic

Stop 20 COVID illnesses by hassling 178,322 people

by philg

“Revisiting the Bangladesh Mask RCT” covers the one “gold standard” paper looking at the question of whether ordering the general public to wear masks has any effect on coronaplague. The previously touted conclusions were that cloth masks were useless, but that ordering everyone to wear surgical masks could reduce plague by 11 percent. “Revisiting the Bangladesh Mask RCT” gives us some actual numbers:

In the Bangladesh Mask RCT, there were nC=163,861 individuals from 300 villages in the control group. There were nT=178,322 individuals from 300 villages in the intervention group. The main end point of the study was whether their intervention reduced the number of individuals who both reported covid-like symptoms and tested seropositive at some point during the trial. The number of such individuals appears nowhere in their paper, and one has to compute this from the data they kindly provided: There were iC=1,106 symptomatic individuals confirmed seropositive in the control group and iT=1,086 such individuals in the treatment group. The difference between the two groups was small: only 20 cases out of over 340,000 individuals over a span of 8 weeks.

If we assume that the authors got everything right, and this isn’t simply statistical noise, we’re left with the result that 178,322 poor souls had to be hassled by pubic health Karens in order to eliminate roughly 20 cases of COVID-19 (to be completely fair, a little more than that since the treatment group was larger).

Related (predictions of #Science versus outcomes, albeit not randomized controlled trials):

Motivation to visit Bangladesh:

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Thankful that life insurance rates are still down

by philg

In COVID-19 is sure to kill you, but life insurance rates haven’t changed (August 21, 2021), I cited a December 2020 study of life insurance rates from 100 different companies. COVID-19 was killing so many healthy folks in their prime that the insurance companies hadn’t bothered to raise rates.

It’s been almost a year. Vaccines are available for the faithful. Every day we read about an unvaccinated person getting his/her/zir/their just deserts, gasping for breath and then dying on a ventilator in an overcrowded ICU.

What’s happening in the life insurance market? As Phil Connors found out in Groundhog Day, it is easy to talk to life insurance agents. I chatted with one outside Loxahatchee Ice Cream Company and learned that rates remain about the same or slightly lower than in 2019. Business was good. Consistent with “Your Vaccination Status Won’t Affect What You Pay for Life Insurance — for Now” (Money), the agent said that carriers were not interested in whether an applicant for insurance had been or would be vaccinated.

The second agent with whom I chatted was at the Stuart Air Show. He agreed that rates were flat-to-down compared to 2019, but his business had changed dramatically. “It used to be difficult to get people to focus on a plan,” he said, “but people have been sitting at home with plenty of time on their hands. It’s easy to get them on the phone and easy to sell them policies.” None of his carriers are interested in COVID-19 vaccination status (i.e., the elixir that we’re constantly reminded will determine whether we live or die is of no interest to the folks who have to pay $500,000 in the event that we die).

So… if we believe that life insurance actuaries are competent at their jobs and correctly pricing risk, we should be grateful that, despite the deaths we read about in the media, the world has not, in fact, become more lethal.

Speaking of the air show, here are some folks on whom I would not be in a hurry to write a policy (12 cylinders, 1,500 horsepower, 75+ years old; what could go wrong?):

Related:

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Perfect illustration of risk compensation rendering COVID-19 vaccines ineffective

by philg

“Benefit of COVID-19 vaccination accounting for potential risk compensation” (Nature, by Stanford Medical School professor John P. A. Ioannidis) points out that our current crop of COVID-19 vaccines won’t slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection if humans who are vaccinated change their behavior as a result of having been vaccinated.

Tailor-made for Prof. Ioannidis: “Getting Back to Normal Is Only Possible Until You Test Positive” (The Atlantic, Alexis Madrigal). Some relevant excerpts:

I was ultracareful for 18 months. Then I got COVID.

When I first received the invitation to the wedding where I would eventually get COVID, I was on the fence about attending at all. My best friend had gone through a tough divorce and was remarrying. I was thrilled for him. His wedding had been put off repeatedly because of COVID, and this was the couple’s second try at a real ceremony. As a bonus, the wedding would take place in New Orleans, where my friend lives. I hadn’t seen him since before the pandemic. New Orleans is a miraculous place, and my favorite city to visit in America. The notion of a trip there shone out of the fog and dreariness of this whole era of history.

The downside, of course, was the risk of exposure to COVID. Sure, I’m vaccinated—two shots of Pfizer—and the wedding’s other attendees would all be vaccinated too. But breakthrough cases happen, and we’d be in New Orleans in October, a place where cases were still high and vaccination was inconsistent. One could not expect to not get exposed to COVID.

But then I reasoned both with myself and with my wife. COVID was unlikely to kill me, a vaccinated 39-year-old endurance athlete. I would be fine, and even if I gave the coronavirus to any of my family members, they too would almost certainly be fine. My wife is vaccinated, and our young children’s risk of serious illness, while not nonexistent, is very low.

Filled with a surge of love for my friends and New Orleans and a sense that, you know what, I’m ready to nose out into a new tier of risk, I booked a flight; I’d be going solo.

As the day approached, my wife and I had not run through every scenario. I still was not precisely sure how the wedding would work, COVID-wise. My friend is a doctor, and I knew the crowd would mostly be New York and California people. There would be no anti-vaxxers among the guests, and the invitation said they’d follow the local public-health protocols.

If he/she/ze/they hadn’t gotten vaccinated, he/she/ze/they never would have gotten on the packed flights nor would he/she/ze/they have attended the wedding of the righteous (“no anti-vaxxers”) at which “at least a dozen people” contracted COVID-19. I myself exhibited the identical behavior. Not being a believer in the efficacy of facerags for the general public, I avoided getting on a commercial airline flight until after getting vaccinated (and the flights that I took ended up being packed and mostly unmasked).

Separately, the rest of the Atlantic article is a great reflection of Bay Area zeitgeist:

I spent hours in an N95 mask in the Las Vegas airport and on planes before arriving in Louisiana and heading to the welcome drinks.

My kids were so happy to see me, and after my negative result came back, to hug me. Was I actually safe? No, I knew I was not. I should have quarantined. But I had stuck my wife with the kids for four days, and I wanted to get back in the mix and help. That seemed like the right thing to do.

Moms are heroic on the one hand, but on the other hand it is unreasonable to expect a mom to be able to take care of two children for four days,

On Monday, I felt fine, but I took an antigen test anyway (negative). I scheduled a PCR test for the next day. By the time my appointment arrived, I’d started to have some postnasal drip and what felt like a possibly psychosomatic tickle in my throat. Tuesday night—four days after the wedding—my PCR result came back negative, and despite having what felt like a cold, I figured I was pretty close to being in the clear.

The next day, my symptoms were about the same. I did an intense Peloton workout and it felt fine, though maybe my legs were a little slow. I wasn’t eager to test again; a negative PCR test seemed good enough. But my wife heard me cough—one of only maybe 20 coughs throughout my whole sickness—and said, “Couldn’t you take another antigen test?”

I was on the phone with a young geographer, talking about doing research at Bay Area libraries, and kind of absentmindedly did the swabbing. When I looked down a few minutes later, I had tested positive. Maybe a false positive? I immediately took another antigen test and the little pink line was practically red, it was so dark. Wrapping up the call, I packed my things quickly, texted my wife the result, walked outside with an N95 mask on, and waited for all hell to break loose.

Like my dentist friends, he/she/ze/they has a whole closet full of N95 masks! Also note the persistence in test, test, testing until positivity is achieved!

But the real worst-case scenario was everything that happened to the people around me. My kids had to come out of school and isolate with my wife. A raft of tests had to be taken by everyone I’d had even limited contact with. (I was one of at least a dozen people at the wedding who got sick.) I had been with several older people, including my mother-in-law. For my wife and children, the tests went on for days and days, each one bringing a prospective new disaster and 10 to 14 more days of life disruption or worse.

But for me, the very worst part was my children. They knew, cognitively, that I was vaccinated and unlikely to get really sick. That said, COVID-19, for them, is a terrible thing. The past year and a half of their lives has been disrupted by this virus. They take precautions every single day not to have this happen.

Even the kids know that if you’re vaccinated it is safe to party! How old are these kids?

My nonbinary 8-year-old was so mad and maybe so scared that they could barely look at me. My 5-year-old daughter proved her status as the ultimate ride-or-die kid. She brought a chair down the street so she could sit 20 feet away from me outside in her mask, as I sat on the porch in an N95.

Five and eight and they are already experts on a disease that kills 82-year-olds.

Despite his/her/zir/their vaccine, the 39-year-old author gets about as sick as the sickest unvaccinated New Yorkers and Europeans whom I talked to back in spring 2020:

I felt pretty sick, like when you have a cold, but I’ve probably been sicker 15 times as an adult.

In other words, a bad cold/flu. The kicker, though, is that he/she/ze/they imagines that he/she/ze/they would have died without the sacrament of vaccination:

These vaccines are amazing. I was and am fine. [emphasis in original]

I understand that my scenario is far better than could or would have played out in a pre-vaccination world.

What about the people infected with SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, pre-vaccines, who never had any symptoms at all? (81 percent of cruise ship passengers who tested positive, for example; or at least one third, if you believe the other side of the #Science coin) They were and are fine. If the 39-year-old endurance athlete author was seriously ill despite vaccination, shouldn’t he/she/ze/they actually suspect that his/her/zir/their vaccine was, at best, laughed at and ignored by the virus?

Readers: I hope that you enjoy the Thanksgiving flights and gatherings that you probably wouldn’t have risked if you hadn’t been vaccinated!

Practical Take-aways: (1) Don’t get more COVID-19 tests than you have to! With current test tech, regardless of what’s in your body, you will eventually test positive; (2) if you don’t want to get COVID-19, stay home (or move to Florida, currently the nation’s lowest-risk state, and stay outdoors!).

Recent group chat exchange:

  • friend 1: So i am in Poland and i got the f***ing flu. Have been coughing for 10 days. Question: Since everyone is in masks, how do I get the flu if masks work?
  • me: 10 days might just be cold, not flu
  • friend 1: And i didn’t have sex with any polish prostitutes
  • friend 2: YET
  • friend 1: Ok and cold is unaffected by masks? What is the science on that?
  • me: I think those who #FollowScience are ready for you! Coronavirus is spread by airborne particles, which is why we #MaskUpAndStopTheSpread On the other hand, every other disease is spread by surface contact, which is why kids still have colds
  • friend 1: I am so damn sick of all of it. Germany is on the rise despite compliance and FFP2 masks everywhere

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Karen orders two dozen beignets and a three-gallon Hurricane

by philg

One of the things that I have always appreciated about New Orleans is the city’s commitment to public health, e.g., ensuring that visitors are adequately hydrated (“This Trendy New Orleans Bar Serves Gigantic 3-Gallon “Hurricanes” Filled With Rum”) and provided with nutritious low-fat gluten-free vegan muffuletta sandwiches.

We told neighbors here in the Florida Free State about our plans for a family trip to New Orleans over the Thanksgiving school break (a whole week for young scholars in Florida). “You know that they’re checking vaccine cards before you can get into restaurants,” was the response. We had some trouble believing that New Orleans would follow San Francisco and New York, but our neighbors’ information was confirmed by “Vaccine mandate: Which places will require them; how will it be enforced?” (August 12, 2021):

New Orleans residents and out-of-towners will now require proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, bars, music venues and many more places.

In New Orleans, you’ll need proof of vaccine or a negative COVID-19 test to go to bars, restaurants, performance venues, stadiums and large outdoor events.

Proof of vaccine should be checked before individuals are allowed to enter the building. Businesses can use the LA Wallet App’s “VerifyYou Pro” function to scan patron’s digital vaccine cards.

Do I still need to wear a mask? Yes, the entire state of Louisiana is currently under a mask mandate and even with your proof of vaccine, you will be required to wear a mask while indoors.

That was August, in the midst of the southern “case” wave. What about now? “NOLA Bars and Restaurants Will Require Vaccine Proof for Entry Through Mardi Gras” (11/16/2021).

It is possible to do some sightseeing without showing papers. The art museum, for example, requires masks, but checks for vaccine status only if people want to get food. Nonetheless, the idea of showing papers several times per day turned out to be a deal-breaker for one member of our family: “Why don’t we just stay in our Florida bubble?”

Readers: What are your Thanksgiving plans?

(above photos: from LEGOLAND, Carlsbad, California, 2005)

Related:

  • “Florida Gov. DeSantis Signs Bills Limiting Vaccine Mandates Into Law” (NBC, 11/18): DeSantis signed the package of bills during a news conference at a car dealership in Brandon, Florida on Thursday. … “I think that Brandon, Florida is a great American city,” DeSantis said, as some in the crowd of about 250 supporters chanted “Let’s go Brandon.” … Additionally, it bars schools and governments in the state from having vaccine mandates and allows parents to sue schools with masking requirements. [See video below for the gal that Palm Beach County might not want to mess with.]
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Irish Vaccine Samizdat

by philg

A friend in Ireland sent me this meme, which is widely circulating on WhatsApp:

This is a counterpoint to Irish media pieces such as “Ireland will face severe Covid lockdown if people behave irresponsibly, O’Dea says”. See also “Irish Deputy PM says the 5% of the nation’s unvaccinated population is causing a problem” (CNN).

What has Ireland gained for its 21 months of trench warfare against SARS-CoV-2? On April 28, 2020, the New York Times used Ireland as a reference point for Sweden’s COVID-19-tagged death rate and they were roughly equal. On the COVID-19 death rate leaderboard, Ireland now sits 9 places below give-the-finger-to-the-virus Sweden. For folks who measure a society’s success by the single number of cumulative COVID-19 death rate, this makes Ireland’s 21 months of living under restrictions well worth it. The trend, however, is for Ireland and Sweden to converge on this grim statistic.

(Unlike Facebook, WhatsApp doesn’t seem to correct COVID-19 wrongthink. The 94% vaccinated stat above might look like it needs correction, but I think that, like many other Europeans, the Irish measure vaccination rate by looking at the percentage of people who are eligible for a vaccine, not by looking at the percentage of all humans, including those too young to be eligible, for example.)

Is meme consistent with official data? From the Google:

Note that “Irish lockdown” is pretty much the opposite of a Maskachusetts lockdown. In Ireland, schools remained open and generally unmasked while adults could not travel more than 2 km from their houses (enforced with police checkpoints), could not gather and drink alcohol, etc. In Boston, on the other hand, the public schools were essentially closed for 18 months while watering holes for adults, alcohol stores, and marijuana shops remained open. Adults could drive 30 miles from their homes at any hour of the day or night to meet a new friend from Tinder.

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Using #Science to reason with vaccine-hesitant 5-11-year-olds

by philg

I’m not a regular Facebook user anymore, but an MIT friend shared a screen shot of his interaction with a desk job physician who went back into scrubs to do some COVID-19 vaccine injections on 5-11-year-olds (requiring the skills of a veterinary technician, a dog breeder, and/or, according to a medical school professor friend, “a janitor”). This is in a rich white part of the U.S.

A discussion ensued:

  • Equestrian mom (profile w kid and horse pictures, but no husband): Thank you for your service!
  • New York mom: Can you pin down some of the ridiculous anti vaxx adults and stab them?
  • Various: #Grateful #ThankYou #You’veGotThis
  • Lady whose profile is packed with cats and “Love is Love” rainbow frames: My cousin’s kids screamed “like a slasher movie” he reported. Good luck!
  • Grey-haired lady with “Let’s Get Vaccinated/We Can Do This” Facebook portrait frame: Thank you, thank you thank you!
  • A mom: Brave man!
  • Male Karen: Just got my booster today at a drive thru. Easy peasey
  • Doc Friend (one who sees patients daily): Godspeed
  • The volunteer doc/original poster: 80% of the kids were easy. 15% were tough. 5% were seemingly impossible and put up a significant fight. The county would do well to have a private room or area to deal with those kids, rather than holding up everyone and creating a spectacle for those waiting.
  • MIT graduate (my friend): I would just reason with the kids and say if they don’t get the vaccine, they have a 1 in 20 million chance of dying from Covid.

(Is 1 in 20 million number correct? From the BBC (UK data are much better than U.S. data due to superior competence with electronic medical records over there):

Researchers estimate that 25 deaths in a population of some 12 million children in England gives a broad, overall mortality rate of 2 per million children.

Around 15 had life-limiting or underlying conditions, including 13 living with complex neuro-disabilities

Though the overall risks were still low, children and young people who died were more likely to be over the age of 10 and of Black and Asian ethnicity.

Six had no underlying conditions recorded in the last five years – though researchers caution some illnesses may have been missed

So 1 in 20 million might be a reasonable lower-bound estimate for a typical rich white 8-year-old.)

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Cost of all U.S. wars versus cost of coronapanic

by philg

It was Veterans Day last week, when we celebrated anyone who carried a gun, flew a desk, stocked shelves, or conducted gender reassignment surgery on behalf of the U.S. military. The United States Department of Veterans Affairs has a budget roughly comparable to what the formidable Russians spend on their active duty military. To what could we compare our military budget that would make it look like a bargain?

What’s the scope of the spending that we’re hoping to put into perspective? Let’s start by looking at a Congressional Research Service report, “Costs of Major U.S. Wars” (figures in 2011 dollars). According to the pointy heads, the U.S. spent $4.1 trillion on World War II, $728 billion on the Vietnam War, and roughly $1.1 trillion for the first 10 years of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Our other wars were insignificant in costs by comparison.

What could have cost more than all of these wars? Coronapanic! Ignoring what cities and states might have spent, e.g., paying employees who weren’t working, the federal government alone has spent roughly $10 trillion so far (covidmoneytracker.org).

A Smithsonian National Museum of American History exhibit, November 2019:

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Maybe it is time for that booster shot?

by philg

Scary-sounding media reports of COVID illness aren’t that scary once one reflects that the media can draw on a population of 330 million to find the worst-case situations. Folks in Maskachusetts and California take risks greater than 1 in 330 million just driving to the dispensary to get their designated-essential-by-Covidcrats marijuana (when schools are closed for 18 months and you’re home with kids, it is important to be fully stoned!).

But what about when COVID strikes a friend? That’s a sample from a population of hundreds of people. The story below is about a friend in his early 50s and generally healthy/fit with a reasonable weight.

Sobering timeline:

  • late March: Moderna shot #1
  • late April: Moderna shot #2
  • October 28: indoor gathering in New York City among the fully vaccinated (by law and, in practice, carefully checked)
  • October 31: began to feel sick
  • November 3: fever of 101, prompting antigen test for COVID-19 (positive) followed by PCR test (positive)
  • November 3: due to history of asthma, qualifies for monoclonal antibody treatment under the rules established by New York Covidcrats (available as a free drive-through for Floridians!). Pays $2,500 for at-home (“in-apartment”?) administration at 6 pm.
  • November 4, 2 am: woke up with fever of 103.4
  • November 4, morning: fever down to 102
  • November 4-10: fever of around 100, sleeping 16 hours/day
  • November 13: mostly recovered
  • November 18: “pretty much back to normal, but still not working out”

His illness was at least as bad as anything that friends who got COVID-19 in 2020 reported (sample of about 50, mostly in expertly-managed-by-#Science New York and Massachusetts). And none of them had the antibodies or, indeed, any other medicine. I think the most likely possibilities, therefore, are the following

  1. the vaccine was worthless, just as the flu vaccine is usually worthless
  2. the vaccine was helpful, but only for a few months
  3. the vaccine put evolutionary pressure on SARS-CoV-2 to evolve into a nastier form (as happened with the low-quality vaccine applied to Marek’s disease)

My best argument against Possibility #3 is Sweden. If SARS-CoV-2 had evolved to become much more aggressive, the natural immunity that the Swedes built up by letting the virus rage should not be effective against the evolved virus. Yet both deaths and COVID “cases” are more or less flat in Sweden, even as rising numbers in the rest of Europe send fearful populations back into their bunkers:

My friend had Moderna, which should be enough vaccine to treat a horse, at least if we believe that the Pfizer 30-microgram shots are sufficient for a 300 lb. human (Moderna shots are 100 micrograms of mRNA and a good-sized horse is 1,000 lbs.). His protection did not last longer than 6 months. Therefore, if we choose Possibility #2, it seems that those of us over 50 should get a booster after only about 4 or 5 months.

What if we choose Possibility 1, “the vaccine was worthless, just as the flu vaccine is usually worthless”? We could also call this the “viruses are smarter than humans” hypothesis. If a medicine is worthless, and even potentially harmful (maybe in 5-10 years we will have full information about these rushed-to-market vaccines?), can it ever be rational to take more of that medicine?

My answer: Yes!

Today’s official state religion includes Faucism. Religious people love to hear stories of sinners suffering their just deserts. Under Faucism, those who weakly “hesitated” regarding getting a vaccine are the biggest sinners of all (it was formerly those who gathered without masks, but there have been so many photos of the elites not following their own mask rules that it now has to be those who reject the Sacrament of the Needle). The only way to avoid becoming a statistic that will support whatever the Covidcrats want to inflict on Americans is to get the booster on the precise date that is suggested by the Covidcrats. (Consider the above story. If my friend hadn’t been vaccinated, the exact same Oct/Nov experience would have been ammunition for the next forced vaccination campaign.)

Equivalent logic: Officer Terry Hoitz (Mark Wahlberg) learns ballet to show that guys who did ballet were “queer”.

Followed by this clip:

Allen Gamble: Hey, I didn’t know you can dance.
Terry Hoitz: We used to do those dance moves to make fun of guys when we were kids to show them how queer they were, okay.

Readers: What do you think? Do we all have to get boosters just to show that vaccination (at least with current tech) won’t make COVID-19 go away?

Also, you may want this Faucism T-shirt for your safe-from-the-bunker Zoom interactions:

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America’s best-educated folks do COVID-19 risk management

by philg

“I’m A Middle-Aged Woman Who Is Considering Hiring A Male Escort” (HuffPost):

“If I can hire a massage therapist to help relieve my back pain … and a mechanic to service my car, I should be able to legally hire a man to have sex with me.”

Who’s the author? “Patricia Thornton is a psychologist, mom, dancer and writer. She lives and works in New York City.” In other words, someone with an elite education (vaguely scientific?) living in an city packed with elites.

Here’s the part of the article that fascinates me:

in October 2020 after not having sex in almost a year due to the pandemic

#AbundanceOfCaution and #FollowTheScience. Avoid sex with mild-mannered accountants because, despite their low comparative risk, it is still possible that they could have asymptomatic COVID-19. But is that level of risk-aversion consistent with wanting, right now, to hire a prostitute (regardless of the prostitute’s current gender ID)? Prostitutes are not known for a low level of infectious disease. Vaccine+sex with prostitute is not the most obvious strategy for avoiding COVID-19.

Related:

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Brexit fallout: Royal Dutch Shell moves its headquarters to London

by philg

We were informed that Brexit (January 31, 2020) would cause multinationals to move their headquarters to the EU. This week we learn, however, “Royal Dutch Shell has announced a plan to move its headquarters to the UK as part of proposals to simplify the company’s structure” (BBC):

The oil giant will ask shareholders to vote on shifting its tax residence from the Netherlands to the UK.

Shell’s chief executive, Ben van Beurden, will relocate to the UK.

The company’s chief financial officer, Jessica Uhl, will also move, alongside seven other senior employees.

Business and Energy Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng welcomed Shell’s announcement, tweeting that it was “a clear vote of confidence in the British economy”.

The Dutch government, however, said it was “unpleasantly surprised” by Shell’s proposal.

Stef Blok, economic affairs and climate minister, said: “We are in a dialogue with the management of Shell over the consequences of this plan for jobs, crucial investment decisions and sustainability.”

Shell has been incorporated in the UK and had a Dutch tax residence – as well as the dual share structure – since 2005.

The changes also mean the company will drop “Royal Dutch” from its title and be renamed Shell. This element dates back to 1890 when the Royal Dutch Petroleum Company was formed. That company merged with the UK’s Shell Transport and Trading Company in 1907.

“Carrying the Royal designation has been a source of immense pride and honour for Shell for more than 130 years,” Shell said.

Shares in Shell rose by nearly 2% on Monday morning.

How will the Dutch enjoy their new freedom from sharing a country with the top climate destroyers in the Shell executive suite? “Netherlands imposes lockdown measures as Covid cases hit new high” (Guardian, 11/12/2021):

The Netherlands will become the first western European country to impose a partial lockdown since the summer, introducing strict new measures from Saturday in the face of record numbers of new Covid-19 infections.

Gatherings at home would be limited to a maximum of four guests, all amateur and professional sporting events must be held behind closed doors, and home working was advised except in “absolutely unavoidable” circumstances, Rutte said.

“The virus is everywhere and needs to combated everywhere. I want every Dutch citizen to be asking, can I do more? Can I do better? We had hoped with the vaccines we wouldn’t have to do this, but we see the same situation all across Europe.”

Charlie is everywhere and this is his Tet Offensive. But if we put all of our resources into defense, the war is eminently winnable.

(I asked a Dutch friend about these situations. On the Shell move, in his view, it was as simple as cutting the corporation’s tax bill. Except for in Germany, which refuses to bend the rules for the politically connected, Europe is much like the U.S. in which states compete by offering special deals for the biggest companies and, in this case, Boris Johnson was offering Shell a better deal. On COVID, my friend said that the current outbreak is primarily due to immigrants in the Netherlands who were, in his view, both more likely to be infected with and less likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19. His perspective is confirmed to some extent by “What is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on immigrants and their children?” (OECD, October 2020), in which immigrants are roughly twice as likely to show up as a “confirmed case” (meaning they actually accessed the health care system and got a test) compared to the native-born. The government had previously reduced the number of hospital rooms per capita in the Netherlands as a cost-savings measure and if the hospitals now fill up it will discredit the government’s competence. World Bank data show that the number of beds per capita in the Netherlands is down by almost half since 1990, only partly due to population growth via immigration; the U.S. also has a reduced capacity per capita since 1990 (population growth from 250 million to 333 million combined with insufficient wealth to build new hospitals can explain much of this).)

In other European news, it looks like they’re getting closer to the proposal put forward here of rounding up the unvaccinated and placing them in Protection Camps. “Austria to impose Covid lockdown for the unvaccinated age 12 and older” (CNN):

Under the measures announced on Sunday, the unvaccinated are ordered to stay home except for a few limited reasons; the rules will be policed by officers carrying out spot checks on those who are out.

The lockdown plan which was agreed in September called for unvaccinated Austrians to face a stay-at-home order once 30% of intensive-care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients. Unvaccinated people are already excluded from entertainment venues, restaurants, hairdressers and other parts of public life in Austria.

In neighboring Germany, ministers have ramped up their rhetoric towards those who are not inoculated. Its capital Berlin announced on Wednesday it will ban people who are not vaccinated from indoor dining, bars, gyms, hairdressers and cinemas from next week.

Now wouldn’t it be simpler if everyone had an RFID chip instead of relying on the police to “spot check” folks’ papers?

Returning to the main theme… gasoline was about $3.30 per gallon at the Shell station in Indiantown, Florida (when does that name get changed?) this weekend. And we used that gasoline to go to the Stuart Air Show where we saw the AeroShell Aerobatic Team (Canon R5 body and cheap/light 800/11 lens):

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